Blue Jays Discussion: Do you want to learn the horrifying truth? Or do you want to see Vlad Jr. sock some dingers!

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

About the Tulo post... I was at that spring game where he hit the HR and yankees fans were losing their minds. Sat there shaking my head.. they somehow had no idea what was coming.

Lol...yeah, yankee fans.

There were people in this thread saying some wild, wild things that day.

Good times.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I've never been a fan of Drury and I've never understood the interest in him from around the league. But you can see hints of something more now and then - flashes of plus power, solid defense at 2B and 3B, stretches where he makes a lot of solid contact. He has a long way to go if he's even going to become something more than a bench piece, but it's in there somewhere.

At the very least he seems to have his early-season strikeout issues under control for now.

I call it the Nolan Reimold effect.

 

[BlueForever75]

Drury isn't that bad of a player. I like him personally. Good defensively with some pop offensively. I don't see him as a starter in the future, but definitely a very good bench player that can act as a sub to many positions (2B, SS, 3B, 1B, Corner OF).

 

[Discoverer]

Lol...yeah, yankee fans.

There were people in this thread saying some wild, wild things that day.

Good times.

I just went back and read through some of it and was a little disappointed that it was mostly jokes about how long it'll be before he's injured. Not a lot of ridiculous complaints. There was really only one person who read too much into it. Three guesses who:

Tulo goes deep.

get used to that.

 

[Eyedea]

I just went back and read through some of it and was a little disappointed that it was mostly jokes about how long it'll be before he's injured. Not a lot of ridiculous complaints. There was really only one person who read too much into it. Three guesses who:

Some guy round these parts also optimistically gave Tulo 75 plate appearances.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I've never been a fan of Drury and I've never understood the interest in him from around the league. But you can see hints of something more now and then - flashes of plus power, solid defense at 2B and 3B, stretches where he makes a lot of solid contact. He has a long way to go if he's even going to become something more than a bench piece, but it's in there somewhere.

At the very least he seems to have his early-season strikeout issues under control for now.

I think the hope with him was to get some post hype prospect along the lines of a Justin Smoak, Luke Voit, or Aaron Hicks who could break out for us. Who knows it might still turn our. Smoak was awful his first two years here. The only problem in this scenario is finding playing time for him since the positions he plays we have young players we want to try out there. That's why getting lottery ticket pitchers from the Yankees would have been ideal, given how our roster is constructed.

 

[Apotheosis]

I liked the draft the Jays had. With an impending bottom 3-5 pick next year plus the continued development of guys like Vladdy, Jansen, Bichette and Pearson, the future is bright in Toronto.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

well there is always a Toronto team playing. or have people forgotten about The Blue Jays?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

So I don't know how much you guys buy into the player trade value metrics guys like Fangraphs use, but they're a good guide imo to how teams now value prospects in trades.

It's a rough calculation but I have Stroman worth about 26.3M surplus value on the very conservative side, and 35.9M surplus value on the very optimistic end. This value is based on the 9M price of 1WAR over years of control, minus salary + projected arbitration raises.

What that means in a potential trade is, for example, is a prospect like Trevor Larnach or Brusdrar Graterol are each valued at 19M and 18M in surplus value respectively, given their years of control plus their 50FV designation.

An Update to Prospect Valuation

Putting a Dollar Value on Prospects Outside the Top 100

That means you can definitely ask for one of them + others in a trade for Stroman but probably not both (especially on the conservative end). In contrast, a guy like Kirilloff is considered to be worth 54M in surplus value, and Royce Lewis 56M which is well out of the range of what we could ask for from analytically astute teams.

A fair trade from this perspective might be something like:

Gratetol/Larnach(18/19M) + Duran/Balazovic (4M) + Smeltzer (3M) for the conservative estimate.

or

Gratetol/Larnach(18/19M) + Duran(4M) + Balazovic(4M) + Smeltzer(3M) + Wade (3M) on the high end.

Keep in mind that I picked the players I liked most at those values but there are players with similar FV values that the Twins might be more inclined to part with (for example, Jose Miranda and Yunior Severino are both 45FV and worth 4M, while Travis Blankenhorn and Cole Sands are on a long list of 40FV players worth 3M surplus value at present).

I think any return we get will probably be on the low end of this value scale.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Alek Manoah

The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first-round draft choice Alek Manoah, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s an at-slot, $4,547,500 deal for the 11th overall pick.

Well that's disappointing. Was hoping for at least a slight discount. It's not like we would have been much worse off with the 12th pick next year, in a draft deep in college pitching from the powerhouse SEC: Hancock, Wilcox, Burns, Lacy, Crochett, Fisher, Ginn, Mace, Henry. Should have used that leverage. If Manoah went back into next year's draft he wasn't likely to go higher and could have gone much lower. Did Dubas negotiate this deal?

 

[Anthrax442]

Boom

 

[weems]

Is Griffin Conine a legit prospect?

It would be hilarious if we had a lineup with the parent bloodline of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Conine.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Is Griffin Conine a legit prospect?

It would be hilarious if we had a lineup with the parent bloodline of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Conine.

i think he may be . he has unreal power and a good eye. i somewhat expect a biggio like escalation . where he will be after thought since returing from suspension alot of lists left him off the top 20 prospects. but we will be raving about him come september or by this time next year.

 

[aingefan]

Sean Wymer with a better start for Lansing. Moreno and Conine are leading the offense.

Max Castillo with a very efficient 6ip start (5h/6k’s). Logan Warmoth starting to look ready for promotion. Sleeper prospect? C Chris Bec. OPS at 756, and can run : 28sb in <230 career ab’s. Neat.

Pat Murphy roughed up in <3ip.

Nice bounce back start for Sean Reid-Foley. Maybe his best of the year: 7 shutout innings, 4bb+h, 6k’s. More please.

The DSL Jays aren’t very good.

 

[metafour]

Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Alek Manoah

Well that's disappointing. Was hoping for at least a slight discount. It's not like we would have been much worse off with the 12th pick next year, in a draft deep in college pitching from the powerhouse SEC: Hancock, Wilcox, Burns, Lacy, Crochett, Fisher, Ginn, Mace, Henry. Should have used that leverage. If Manoah went back into next year's draft he wasn't likely to go higher and could have gone much lower. Did Dubas negotiate this deal?

There was no reason for him to sign for a discount, so this isn't surprising at all. Purposely not signing picks like you suggest is only an internet-fantasy and no team thinks in that manner, as the lost year of an asset is rarely worth it. Low balling players and therefore alienating agents is also a bad idea as the agents have power to push their future players past you if they feel like it, and these teams rely on the agents to cooperate with them.

 

[metafour]

Is Griffin Conine a legit prospect?

It would be hilarious if we had a lineup with the parent bloodline of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Conine.

Of course he is a legitimate prospect. He was a Top 15 talent entering his Junior year before his terrible season pushed him to the 2nd round. It is a legitimate RF profile with plus power and a plus arm.

 

[kb]

Of course he is a legitimate prospect. He was a Top 15 talent entering his Junior year before his terrible season pushed him to the 2nd round. It is a legitimate RF profile with plus power and a plus arm.

He was 2 for 5 in 2 of the past 3 games and his average dropped after both games.

Yes, small sample size alert.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

There was no reason for him to sign for a discount, so this isn't surprising at all. Purposely not signing picks like you suggest is only an internet-fantasy and no team thinks in that manner

Funny, I just read my post and no where do I say that.

The lost year of an asset is rarely worth it.

Marcus Stroman and Tyler Beede say hi. So do Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton. Alex Bregman and Brady Aiken.

Low balling players and therefore alienating agents is also a bad idea as the agents have power to push their future players past you if they feel like it, and these teams rely on the agents to cooperate with them.

You mean negotiating? I didnt say offer him 3M take or leave it, we're talking about 100-250K. And agents don't like it when you don't give them exactly what they want, you don't say? I've yet to see any proof of this claim of agents holding grudges against teams that negotiate hard. They'd run out of people to do business with pretty quick and there's only 30 teams. I'm pretty sure agents will work with any team that has money. It's a business.

 

[Discoverer]

20-year-old catcher spends a month in Lansing, looks like he's way too good for that level, moves up to Dunedin, looks like he's way too good for that level too.

His replacement in Lansing, a 19-year-old catcher, steps in and... looks like he's way too good for that level.

Which 18-year-old catcher is next in line?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

20-year-old catcher spends a month in Lansing, looks like he's way too good for that level, moves up to Dunedin, looks like he's way too good for that level too.

His replacement in Lansing, a 19-year-old catcher, steps in and... looks like he's way too good for that level.

Which 18-year-old catcher is next in line?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Warmoth 3-4 now up to .290. Really hope he proves me wrong and becomes something.

 

[The Nemesis]

20-year-old catcher spends a month in Lansing, looks like he's way too good for that level, moves up to Dunedin, looks like he's way too good for that level too.

His replacement in Lansing, a 19-year-old catcher, steps in and... looks like he's way too good for that level.

Which 18-year-old catcher is next in line?

All part of the Jays' radical new plan for positional flexibility: a lineup of 9 catchers. That way everyone can catch if need be.

 

[LaPlante94]

All part of the Jays' radical new plan for positional flexibility: a lineup of 9 catchers. That way everyone can catch if need be.

It's a really smart plan. Need those good catchers in the infield and the outfield to win games.