Army has tear our blueline down already. Maybe he could fix forward group next?
Do You View This Team as a Legitimate Cup Contender?
- Thread starter The Note
- Start date
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
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The blue line is barely recognizable to the one from 2019 and (IMO) that group was the backbone of the team. It was built around big, mobile defenders whose biggest assets were their reach and ability to force/keep players to the outside while effectively clogging passing lanes.
Faulk is 3 inches shorter than Petro. Scandella is listed as 1 inch shorter than Bouw, but Bouw used that long-ass stick and his reach was a lot longer than Scandella's. Krug is 7 inches shorter than Eddy. Gunnar is 5 inches taller than Krug if that is the comparison you want to use for the other top 4 LD from 2019. That is about a foot of size that has been lost on the blue line before you even start to consider the fact that our 6'6" gentle giant is on IR. Faulk and Krug both excel at a chase/pressure the puck carrier style that is a hell of a lot different than what our 2019 blue line excelled at.
Our current lineup has just 2 of the 7 D men who played minutes for us in the 2019 playoffs. Those two guys were 5th and 7th in both TOI and TOI per game. The current blue line is drastically different. I'd argue that it has gotten substantially worse at defending, which is a big chunk of our issues. I think getting Parayko back would help a lot, but that doesn't change the reality of where we are currently at.
Up front, we don't have significant changes but they are pretty much universally losses to defensive guys. Steen, Sunny, Barby and Bozak were 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th in PK minutes on the Cup run. ROR was #2 and no other forward played more than 3 total minutes on the PK throughout the playoffs. Steen is gone, Barby has been out since mid-February and we have had exactly 1 full game with both Sunny/Bozak in the lineup since the Stone hit on Bozak. Additions to the lineup are guys that aren't very strong defensively. Kyrou and Hoffman are very skilled and their offensive ability is undeniably better. But they aren't filling defensive voids left from these players' absence.
The defensive core of this team is dramatically worse than the 2019 playoff team. We are relying on Sanford and Schenn to do way more heavy lifting defensively than they did before. Neither of them are poor defenders, but they aren't top end either. We are relying on Mac, DLR, Schwartz and Clifford to play not-insignificant PK minutes, which is a downgrade from our killers in 2019.
The lineup is substantially worse defensively and the underlying numbers reflect that. We're about average in most 5 on 5 defensive metrics, have one of the worst PKs in the league and the combination of those things means we are 24th in goals against per game.
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LGB
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2019
- 2,113
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Some stats over the last 3 seasons:
FF = unblocked shots for
FA = unblocked shots against
GSAx = goals saved above expected
5v5
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18-19
19-20
20-21
Our expected goals for rate has steadily dropped over the last 3 seasons. Looking at the shot heat maps we have had very few shots relative to league average from the prime scoring area right in front of the net. Our expected goals against rate remains pretty much unchanged according to Evolving Hockey's data and has even dropped according to the shot maps from hockeyviz. I suspect that could be from us playing a lower-event style rather than being better defensively though. The major change in our goals against rate seems to be related to poor goaltending more than anything else.
I think the most important thing we need to change is getting more high-value scoring opportunities. In 18-19 we generated those with a lot of shots from between the dots and I'm not sure why that's changed if anyone has insight into that. Another high-value scoring opportunity is shots off the rush which we were generating at the beginning of the season mostly from Kyrou.
Special Teams
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Both special teams units are quite a bit worse than their averages from the past two seasons. Binnington seems to be generally below average on the kill.
FF = unblocked shots for
FA = unblocked shots against
GSAx = goals saved above expected
5v5
| FF/60 | FA/60 | xGF/60 | xGA/60 | GF/60 | GA/60 | GSAx | |
| 18-19 | 42.4 | 38.3 | 2.57 | 2.19 | 2.5 | 2.2 | -0.6 |
| 19-20 | 40.0 | 37.7 | 2.28 | 2.2 | 2.56 | 2.01 | 11.0 |
| 20-21 | 36.5 | 38.6 | 2.02 | 2.16 | 2.17 | 2.48 | -9.3 |
18-19
19-20
20-21
Our expected goals for rate has steadily dropped over the last 3 seasons. Looking at the shot heat maps we have had very few shots relative to league average from the prime scoring area right in front of the net. Our expected goals against rate remains pretty much unchanged according to Evolving Hockey's data and has even dropped according to the shot maps from hockeyviz. I suspect that could be from us playing a lower-event style rather than being better defensively though. The major change in our goals against rate seems to be related to poor goaltending more than anything else.
I think the most important thing we need to change is getting more high-value scoring opportunities. In 18-19 we generated those with a lot of shots from between the dots and I'm not sure why that's changed if anyone has insight into that. Another high-value scoring opportunity is shots off the rush which we were generating at the beginning of the season mostly from Kyrou.
Special Teams
| PP% | PK% | GSAx PK | |
| 18-19 | 21.1 | 81.5 | -2.5 |
| 19-20 | 24.3 | 79.3 | -2.7 |
| 20-21 | 18.6 | 74.6 | -3.6 |
Both special teams units are quite a bit worse than their averages from the past two seasons. Binnington seems to be generally below average on the kill.
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Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,252
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On the maps: I'm curious where all our GA are coming from. It is interesting we seem to be better defensively, but I seem to recall a boatload of GA coming from high-danger areas.
(If someone has done their job right, SV% from those regions should fall out and we ought to be able to learn some interesting stuff there. Someone out there, please have done this instead of yet again me mentioning something like this and having to wait years for people to catch up.)
(If someone has done their job right, SV% from those regions should fall out and we ought to be able to learn some interesting stuff there. Someone out there, please have done this instead of yet again me mentioning something like this and having to wait years for people to catch up.)
LGB
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2019
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If you go to the hockeyviz.com link they have a heat map of finishing for and against relative to league average and a lot more.
- Feb 12, 2008
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I’m not judging a team that has missed half the team’s starting lineup for long stretches of the season. Haven’t really had the true Parayko for one game. He was the one guy we needed to be a #1, and he’s been hurt all year.
it’s just not our year. I’m in tank mode. Trade Hoffman for a 2nd.
it’s just not our year. I’m in tank mode. Trade Hoffman for a 2nd.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,252
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We should probably start answering the question of this thread in two pieces, because there's pretty clearly two different answers:
1. How good can the roster we're currently putting on the ice be - so, excluding injured players?
2. How good can the roster be when everyone is healthy?
1. How good can the roster we're currently putting on the ice be - so, excluding injured players?
2. How good can the roster be when everyone is healthy?
Sgt Schultz
Registered User
I have to put a caveat on my own observations, because I don't get to see the team as much as most or all of you do. Add that I did see them against the Kings a couple of times, and for whatever reason we soil all over the ice against the Kings.
The games I have seen, the team looks like it has no chemistry. Two seasons ago, things just clicked. Players seemed to anticipate what each other were going to do and put themselves in a position to make a play because of it. It was as if it was instinctive. This year, it looks like everybody is thinking out there instead of reading and reacting.
Is that because of the injuries and the churn it creates on the roster, is this a collection of players that just don't mesh, or are they "trying too hard?" There is an old saying that perfect is the enemy of good, and I have seen teams that tried so hard to make perfect plays that they passed on an opportunity to make good ones. This does not appear to be that.
My other observation, one I am more confident in, I see in the posts before me: we are not exactly a lock down defense anymore. I have seen too many goals and scoring opportunities from people left alone in "prime real estate." I don't remember that two years ago. And let's face it: Binnington gives up rebounds. That places a premium on playing a Shop Vac role back there and scooping them up or putting them into a harmless area. Again, when I have seen them, they were not good at that.
The games I have seen, the team looks like it has no chemistry. Two seasons ago, things just clicked. Players seemed to anticipate what each other were going to do and put themselves in a position to make a play because of it. It was as if it was instinctive. This year, it looks like everybody is thinking out there instead of reading and reacting.
Is that because of the injuries and the churn it creates on the roster, is this a collection of players that just don't mesh, or are they "trying too hard?" There is an old saying that perfect is the enemy of good, and I have seen teams that tried so hard to make perfect plays that they passed on an opportunity to make good ones. This does not appear to be that.
My other observation, one I am more confident in, I see in the posts before me: we are not exactly a lock down defense anymore. I have seen too many goals and scoring opportunities from people left alone in "prime real estate." I don't remember that two years ago. And let's face it: Binnington gives up rebounds. That places a premium on playing a Shop Vac role back there and scooping them up or putting them into a harmless area. Again, when I have seen them, they were not good at that.
He's been a little testy lately, but he's a valuable poster overall. I vote we hold onto him.
- Jul 4, 2014
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Hey, we always have to be thinking about the future of this board. That 2nd rounder could turn into a really solid poster in a few years.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,252
- 8,683
Damn. I thought for all these years of contributions, I was safe from getting moved. We've clearly hit the point where no one is safe.
I had to read this twice, but now I am still laughing! Well played, sir!
- Feb 12, 2008
- 19,372
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You don’t work hard enough, you aren’t very good defensively and you aren’t even scoring. What good are you?
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,252
- 8,683
Whoa, whoa, whoa. My scoring touch isn't what it used to be, but my defensive game is still elite.
Not commenting on that "don't work hard enough" thing. I'm too lazy to put up a proper response.
EastonBlues22
Registered User
Guess that NMC you didn't fight for had value after all.
mk80
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2012
- 8,046
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What's the market for @Ted Hoffman though? If we could get another mod for him that would drastically improve our live GDT issues.
TK 421
Barbashev eats babies pass it on
- Sep 12, 2007
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Shots fired! Shots fired! We've got Mod ego sprayed all over the walls down here! He got Ted too for chrissakes. Guy is out of control.
mk80
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2012
- 8,046
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All I'm saying is while we have a fantastic top line of Cup winning mods, sometimes we've need a little depth modding this season.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,252
- 8,683
I wanted to finish my career here, but I guess if we need to make a move for the good of the organization, I'll take one for it. I just ask that you all don't send me to Buffalo, Edmonton, Detroit or Chicago.
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
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I have zero stats to back this up and if such stats exist they are not publicly available.
I've never seen a team block more shots and disrupt more passes that then leave the puck sitting 5 feet in front of the crease onto the tape of an opposing player. I don't know if it is bad luck or a flaw in our strategy, but we have had so many goals scored against us this year where Binner is reacting one direction only to see the puck take a bounce directly to an opponent in the opposite direction that fires it into an empty net. If you only allow 4 shots from the crease area all game but 2 of them are like that, you come away with a great looking heat map, a low xGA and 2 goals against that you really can't pin on the goalie.
I think there is an argument to be made that we try to block too many shots. Binner's strength is his first save ability and his biggest weakness is rebound control. I'd like to see more emphasis on boxing guys out and less emphasis on blocking shots.
Robb_K
Registered User
When EVERYONE is FULLY healthy, this team is, on paper, a Stanley Cup Contender. But, that is only true AFTER they have been playing together for a month to six weeks, to get into a groove again.
