I am more firmly in the we are not contenders camp as currently constructed, even more so than I was at the time of the initial vote. We will need an incredible offseason to change that view.
Agreed, and frankly, these talks of moving on from Schwartz, Tarasenko, and Dunn is only solidifying my stance of the Blues not being a contender. I can understand the merits people put forward as to why they think moving on from these guys would be beneficial. The issue I have is that moving on from these guys is what direction the team would go if it were done.
Schwartz is coming off of a fairly bad season and has been injury prone on the past. I understand the line of thought that giving him a long term deal or an expensive contract would be risky. But despite his struggles last year, he was still one of the best 5-on-5 players the Blues had. He ranked among the tops on the team with expected goal values, high-danger chances, and shot attempt differentials. Frankly, I think Schwartz is behind only O'Reilly when it comes to impact on 5-on-5 play. For a Blues team that just didn't play well in that regard, moving on from Schwartz would be a huge misstep unless a better Schwartz came along. Completely possible, but players that are better than Schwartz are not readily available without paying a pretty high price to acquire them.
Moving on from Tarasenko also has its merits, but at this point, the only value he would bring would be cap space. Some might say that's enough, but having cap space is only as valuable as what a team will use the cap space on. Tarasenko is a large question mark for the foreseeable future, so having a more consistency playing player would easily be more valuable than that. But again, for a team like the Blues, that player would need to boost the 5-on-5 play while also fitting into the top-6. That last part needs to be specified in my mind because for a team to think of itself as a Cup contender, relying on potential from a guy like Kyrou or anyone else at this stage is far too risky for that venture. With the contracts of O'Reilly and Parayko looming over the Blues for the necxt few years, there isn't much time left before the window shuts completely. Albeit, moving from Tarasenko is the easiest pill to swallow for me given his reoccurring injury and prolonged absence from the team without large consequences on the overall play of the team.
With Dunn, again, the merits make sense in that he seems superfluous with Krug on the team and Perunovich in the wings. But truthfully, I don't think Krug is going to get any better. I was never disappointed in Krug from this past season because what I saw from him this past season is what I saw from him while he was in Boston. He's great when he has the room to work but suffers when that space is taken away from him. There is value in his PP work, but he really doesn't help the main issue that plagues the team and costs quite a bit for it. As for Pernuovich, I think relying on him to help the team in the short term is misguided. He hasn't played at a professional level yet and will take development time even if he were thrown into the NHL as soon as next season. That's not good for a team that wishes to be a Cup contender right now. To add, if the Blues do move on from Dunn, then he would be replaced with a less talented player unless the Blues try to score big with Hamilton. But a move for Hamilton, or someone of that ilk, would most likely effect the position of one of Krug, Faulk, and Parayko, i.e. the big dogs of the defense right now. I totally understand moving on from Dunn, but I think the consequences of a move wouldn't be as forgiving as many see it right now. It would require multiple players stepping up in the defensive cores to forgive the loss, I think.
I guess the point of this post was more highlighting that there are ingrained problems with the Blues right now that just simply moving players might not fix. I still vehemently think that moving on from Schwartz is a dumb idea. The only way it makes sense is due to the cap crunch the Blues will find themselves in for the future given how many players are signed until the year 2026. Tarasenko makes sense from a cap perspective, but that cap needs to be used well in order for the cap savings to help. For a team that wishes to continue being a Cup contender, having cap space is not inherently helpful at this point in time. As for Dunn, I guess there really aren't many reasons not to move on from him. But I don't think the reasons to move on from him help the team much. With the timetable of being a Cup contender looming over the Blues, the offseason needed to put this team in the best position to win would have to be pretty darn grand.
