Do the Wings finally have the pieces needed for a rebuild on the fly?

[HockeyinHD]

But if you're satisfied with that it becomes an indicator of missing the forest for the trees.

And if you're terribly unsatisfied with that, it's like seeing the forest and wanting to cut all the trees down so you can plant bushes.

The point is to compete for and win the Stanley Cup, not qualify for the tournament that decides the winner.

I've asked this a few times to a few different people: Why do you think that's the point? No, seriously, why? Do you think more than maybe 6-8 teams in the NHL entered this season trying to win this Cup? If that many?

Teams try to win a Cup. Not this Cup. That's why GMs everywhere like handing out long term deals to competent players. They want stability and an opportunity to be fairly good for as long as possible.

Nowadays the only time you'll see a GM get really fired up about doing especially well in the current season is when said GM is on the verge of getting fired, so if the team doesn't look goosed he's gone anyway.

 

[InjuredChoker]

And if you're terribly unsatisfied with that, it's like seeing the forest and wanting to cut all the trees down so you can plant bushes.



I've asked this a few times to a few different people: Why do you think that's the point? No, seriously, why? Do you think more than maybe 6-8 teams in the NHL entered this season trying to win this Cup? If that many?

Teams try to win a Cup. Not this Cup. That's why GMs everywhere like handing out long term deals to competent players. They want stability and an opportunity to be fairly good for as long as possible.

Nowadays the only time you'll see a GM get really fired up about doing especially well in the current season is when said GM is on the verge of getting fired, so if the team doesn't look goosed he's gone anyway.

or because otherwise they wouldn't be able to sign those players.. some of those long-term contracts hurt those teams in terms of being good as long as possible. but it helps them short-term.

 

[Shaman464]

No, this team is not rebuilt and is in fact further from a rebuild than it was 2 years ago. Z and Dats both seem to have fallen off a cliff, the team is saddle with unsustainable contract for players who do not contribute nearly to the rate they are paid and the farm is absent any real center or defensive depth.

This team is a lot closer to falling to the basement then being rebuilt.

 

[DanZ]

No, this team is not rebuilt and is in fact further from a rebuild than it was 2 years ago. Z and Dats both seem to have fallen off a cliff, the team is saddle with unsustainable contract for players who do not contribute nearly to the rate they are paid and the farm is absent any real center or defensive depth.

This team is a lot closer to falling to the basement then being rebuilt.

How is the team further away from a rebuild than two years ago when Nyquist, Tatar, Larkin, Mrazek, DeKeyser, Marchenko, Green, Richards, Athanasiou, etc. weren't all on the roster? Sorry, but that makes zero sense.

 

[Shaman464]

How is the team further away from a rebuild than two years ago when Nyquist, Tatar, Larkin, Mrazek, DeKeyser, Marchenko, Green, Richards, Athanasiou, etc. weren't all on the roster? Sorry, but that makes zero sense.

Nyquist and Tatar are less effective this year than they were two years ago. Marchenko has surpassed expectations but isn't anything more than a dime a dozen middle 4 d-man. Green is nice, but he's lateral compared to what has been lost with Kronwall declining. Danny D is a great kid, but again, he's a #3. That leaves us with Mrazek, Richards, Larkin and AA. AA is going to be Helm's replacement, if Holland does what he should and lets him walk. So that's a lateral move. Larkin is great, but he can't be expected to pick up for an oft-injured and rapidly declining pair of Dats and Z. Richards? Really? He's 35, been almost literally a non-factor and he's not part of the rebuild. Mrazek is the only upgrade that the Wings have over two years ago.

 

[DanZ]

Nyquist and Tatar are less effective this year than they were two years ago. Marchenko has surpassed expectations but isn't anything more than a dime a dozen middle 4 d-man. Green is nice, but he's lateral compared to what has been lost with Kronwall declining. Danny D is a great kid, but again, he's a #3. That leaves us with Mrazek, Richards, Larkin and AA. AA is going to be Helm's replacement, if Holland does what he should and lets him walk. So that's a lateral move. Larkin is great, but he can't be expected to pick up for an oft-injured and rapidly declining pair of Dats and Z. Richards? Really? He's 35, been almost literally a non-factor and he's not part of the rebuild. Mrazek is the only upgrade that the Wings have over two years ago.

Are you thinking of last season? Tatar is certainly better now than he was two years ago. I don't think you understand what a rebuild is. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are not part of the rebuild. The rebuild comes from our youth. Our youth movement is certainly in a much better situation than it was two years ago and I find it hard to argue otherwise. Athanasiou is already better than Helm, so I'd hardly call him a replacement.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If you think the Wings are nearing the finish line on this rebuild on the fly, when do you expect the Wings to start contending for the cup? Also just to clarify, contending doesn't mean going into the playoffs as the prohibitive underdog every round. Because that isn't contending.

Next year will more than likely be Datsyuk's final season, and there aren't any FA's that will come close to matching Datsyuk's actual value on the ice. So i would expect the Wings to be a worse team even if they used all of that new cap space on the best possible player(s) available.

The Wings drafting Larkin was huge, and it plugged one hole on a sinking ship, but there are two more giant holes that need to be plugged and help isn't on the way.

 

[DanZ]

If you think the Wings are nearing the finish line on this rebuild on the fly, when do you expect the Wings to start contending for the cup? Also just to clarify, contending doesn't mean going into the playoffs as the prohibitive underdog every round. Because that isn't contending.

Next year will more than likely be Datsyuk's final season, and there aren't any FA's that will come close to matching Datsyuk's actual value on the ice. So i would expect the Wings to be a worse team even if they used all of that new cap space on the best possible player(s) available.

The Wings drafting Larkin was huge, and it plugged one hole on a sinking ship, but there are two more giant holes that need to be plugged and help isn't on the way.

The only obvious hole I see right now is a #1D. We have a #1C and a plethora of top 6 wingers or potential top 6 wingers. We have a #1 goalie in Mrazek who looks like he could be an annual Vezina contender. We need a #2C but I think Chicago has sufficiently shown that it isn't necessary if you have enough depth on the wings. Even so, I think Svechnikov has the potential to fill a 2C role.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

The only obvious hole I see right now is a #1D. We have a #1C and a plethora of top 6 wingers or potential top 6 wingers. We have a #1 goalie in Mrazek who looks like he could be an annual Vezina contender. We need a #2C but I think Chicago has sufficiently shown that it isn't necessary if you have enough depth on the wings. Even so, I think Svechnikov has the potential to fill a 2C role.

Chicago has shown that it doesn't need a legit 2C when you have Patrick Kane.

Kane>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Nyquist+Tatar+Sheahan+Hot N Ready pizza

 

[Shaman464]

Are you thinking of last season? Tatar is certainly better now than he was two years ago. I don't think you understand what a rebuild is. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are not part of the rebuild. The rebuild comes from our youth. Our youth movement is certainly in a much better situation than it was two years ago and I find it hard to argue otherwise. Athanasiou is already better than Helm, so I'd hardly call him a replacement.

There is absolutely no way to prove that statement other than you're subjectively valuing AA over Helm. I have actually done the statistics using ANOVA and tukey post-hoc analysis (literally because software makes it was easy as copy and paste) and at all levels so far AA's production has been statistically analogous to Helm's. I know AA is the sexy new toy that everyone loves, but when their careers are all said and done what we will see are two fast 3rd line centers in terms of production. This is not a knock on AA, but he's not a building block for a top 6 as a center.

Tatar has regressed so far this year from a PPG last season of nearly .7 ppg to a .6 ppg. I will have to look it up again, but I believe that his P/60 has regressed since two years ago as well.

Why do I bring up Z and Dats? Because for a rebuild to happen from a low point you have to have at least marginally better talent than the team had before. I would argue that the current core and prospects are worse today because the output of Z, D, Kronwall et al 2 years ago aren't being matched by the output of Larkin, DD, Marchenko, et al and that they will never (as a group) be as good as Dats/Z/Kronwall in their primes.

So, until Detroit has two top 6 centers (they have one), two top 2 d-men in their under 30 set, they have not even replaced what they have lost.

 

[DanZ]

Chicago has shown that it doesn't need a legit 2C when you have Patrick Kane.

Kane>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Nyquist+Tatar+Sheahan+Hot N Ready pizza

Valid point, but I don't believe there is one formula to win a Cup. For example, I don't think the Wings need to be as stacked on defense as Chicago with Mrazek in net.

 

[Shaman464]

Valid point, but I don't believe there is one formula to win a Cup. For example, I don't think the Wings need to be as stacked on defense as Chicago with Mrazek in net.

I would say that this is completely wrong. Teams that rely on over worked goalies tend to lose to teams with stacked defense in the playoffs.

 

[DanZ]

There is absolutely no way to prove that statement other than you're subjectively valuing AA over Helm. I have actually done the statistics using ANOVA and tukey post-hoc analysis (literally because software makes it was easy as copy and paste) and at all levels so far AA's production has been statistically analogous to Helm's. I know AA is the sexy new toy that everyone loves, but when their careers are all said and done what we will see are two fast 3rd line centers in terms of production. This is not a knock on AA, but he's not a building block for a top 6 as a center.

I think you'll understand if I don't place much value in your statistical analysis. You're opinion is completely subjective as well. It's clear to me from watching both players that one player has offensive capabilities that the other player simply does not. I don't expect an objective opinion from you however.

Tatar has regressed so far this year from a PPG last season of nearly .7 ppg to a .6 ppg. I will have to look it up again, but I believe that his P/60 has regressed since two years ago as well.

Tatar is not a worse player now than his rookie season.

Why do I bring up Z and Dats? Because for a rebuild to happen from a low point you have to have at least marginally better talent than the team had before. I would argue that the current core and prospects are worse today because the output of Z, D, Kronwall et al 2 years ago aren't being matched by the output of Larkin, DD, Marchenko, et al and that they will never (as a group) be as good as Dats/Z/Kronwall in their primes.

So, until Detroit has two top 6 centers (they have one), two top 2 d-men in their under 30 set, they have not even replaced what they have lost.

Sorry but that still doesn't make sense. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall were not part of the rebuild 2 years ago and they aren't now. Everyone over 30 is irrelevant to the rebuild. Our under-30 core is indisputably better now than it was 2 years ago.

 

[lilidk]

Wings good to get in play off , but not good to win it . Do we wont to stay this way or actually win it ? We need to draft low to get talent

 

[DanZ]

I would say that this is completely wrong. Teams that rely on over worked goalies tend to lose to teams with stacked defense in the playoffs.

Just because you don't have a stacked defense doesn't mean your goalie is automatically over worked.

What I would say is completely wrong is that there's some standard formula for how to win a Cup. Just because Chicago and LA have followed a similar formula for the past 5 years doesn't mean that will be the case fort he next 15 years. That's a simplistic viewpoint.

 

[Shaman464]

I think you'll understand if I don't place much value in your statistical analysis. You're opinion is completely subjective as well.



Tatar is not a worse player now than his rookie season.



Sorry but that still doesn't make sense. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall were not part of the rebuild 2 years ago and they aren't now. Everyone over 30 is irrelevant to the rebuild. Our under-30 core is indisputably better now than it was 2 years ago.

You can place no value in it, but if I am basing my opinions on it then I have objective evidence.

Tatar isn't worse, but he's definitely not producing at the same clip as he was before. I like him more than Nyquist, but neither are anything more than dime a dozen middle 6 forwards.

My point is that it's not a rebuild on the fly if the team isn't in a better position to compete. I agree the under 30 core is better than it was 2-3 years ago, but that's like saying a punch in kidney is better than a knee in the groin. The under-30 core is still too dependent on a lot of players reaching their ceilings instead of their most likely outcomes (aside from two obvious exceptions).

So end all be all, yes, you're right the under-30 core is better, but the OP's conjecture that this team have the pieces to rebuild on the fly? I would say no, that a rebuild on the fly requires that the vets and the under 30 core be much better than they are now.

 

[Shaman464]

Just because you don't have a stacked defense doesn't mean your goalie is automatically over worked.

What I would say is completely wrong is that there's some standard formula for how to win a Cup. Just because Chicago and LA have followed a similar formula for the past 5 years doesn't mean that will be the case fort he next 15 years. That's a simplistic viewpoint.

Going back 20 years I would say that teams with stacked defenses fared much better than teams with average defenses and a better goalie. It's not just LA and Chicago either, going back to Detroit's last spell of playoff success (2006-07 through 2008-09) teams that did the best also tended to have some of the best defensive cores in the league.

 

[DanZ]

You can place no value in it, but if I am basing my opinions on it then I have objective evidence.

And where is your evidence that your statistical analysis has any sort of predictive value whatsoever? Until you can show that I don't think you can really consider it "evidence."

Tatar isn't worse, but he's definitely not producing at the same clip as he was before. I like him more than Nyquist, but neither are anything more than dime a dozen middle 6 forwards.

My point is that it's not a rebuild on the fly if the team isn't in a better position to compete. I agree the under 30 core is better than it was 2-3 years ago, but that's like saying a punch in kidney is better than a knee in the groin. The under-30 core is still too dependent on a lot of players reaching their ceilings instead of their most likely outcomes (aside from two obvious exceptions).

So end all be all, yes, you're right the under-30 core is better, but the OP's conjecture that this team have the pieces to rebuild on the fly? I would say no, that a rebuild on the fly requires that the vets and the under 30 core be much better than they are now.

To me, a rebuild on the fly is simply rebuilding the teams core while remaining competitive (i.e., not tanking.) If you're thinking it's something else, than we're just arguing different things.

 

[19 for president]

If this team looks like below in 3 or 4 years that is a very solid lineup.

Nyquist-Larkin-Mantha
Tatar-Sheahan-Zetterberg
Bert-AA-Jurco
Turgeon-Nasty-Glenny

Ufa/trade-Dekeyser
Green-Marchy
XO-VS

Mrazek
Ufa

Now I don't think it will look this way but the fact that I only see one huge hole is big. We really need that top pairing dman.

 

[DanZ]

If this team looks like below in 3 or 4 years that is a very solid lineup.

Nyquist-Larkin-Mantha
Tatar-Sheahan-Zetterberg
Bert-AA-Jurco
Turgeon-Nasty-Glenny

Ufa/trade-Dekeyser
Green-Marchy
XO-VS

Mrazek
Ufa

Now I don't think it will look this way but the fact that I only see one huge hole is big. We really need that top pairing dman.

Missing Svechnikov.

 

[Shaman464]

And where is your evidence that your statistical analysis has any sort of predictive value whatsoever? Until you can show that I don't think you can really consider it "evidence."


To me, a rebuild on the fly is simply rebuilding the teams core while remaining competitive (i.e., not tanking.) If you're thinking it's something else, than we're just arguing different things.

I don't see this team remaining competitive though. The depth just isn't there. The team right now is within 4 points of being on the outside looking in and that's with the benefit of 9 loser points, the most of any team in the playoff picture. With the lack of center and defensive depth in the farm this team in a couple years could be a team that is out of playoff consideration by Christmas.

Also I don't think being a wildcard team is competitive. The NHL over half the teams make the playoffs, to be competitive you have to have a realistic chance at competing for a cup, and as such this team hasn't been competitive in half a decade.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If this team looks like below in 3 or 4 years that is a very solid lineup.

Nyquist-Larkin-Mantha
Tatar-Sheahan-Zetterberg
Bert-AA-Jurco
Turgeon-Nasty-Glenny

Ufa/trade-Dekeyser
Green-Marchy
XO-VS

Mrazek
Ufa

Now I don't think it will look this way but the fact that I only see one huge hole is big. We really need that top pairing dman.

Missing Ericsson and Gator.

 

[Shaman464]

Missing Ericsson and Gator.

Optimistically maybe they are the trade bate for a top d-man?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Optimistically maybe they are the trade bate for a top d-man?

I don't see it and I trust my eyes to Dr.Ramani.

 

[DanZ]

I don't see this team remaining competitive though. The depth just isn't there. The team right now is within 4 points of being on the outside looking in and that's with the benefit of 9 loser points, the most of any team in the playoff picture. With the lack of center and defensive depth in the farm this team in a couple years could be a team that is out of playoff consideration by Christmas.

Who cares about loser points? ROW leaders in the East:

Washington: 37
NYR, Tampa Bay: 28
Detroit, Florida: 27

They are within 4 points of being out of the playoffs but also 5 points out of first in their division. Parity is pretty high right now.

Also I don't think being a wildcard team is competitive. The NHL over half the teams make the playoffs, to be competitive you have to have a realistic chance at competing for a cup, and as such this team hasn't been competitive in half a decade.

They aren't a wildcard team right now nor have they been for the vast majority of the season. Being competitive is not the same as contending. Detroit is the very definition of competitive but not contending right now. Only one team (Washington) has separated themselves from the pack, so by your definition you must think that there is literally only one competitive team in the East right now?