Do the Wings finally have the pieces needed for a rebuild on the fly?

[HomersWorld]

Dekeyser-Vatanen would be a very good pairing.

Kenny would probably have to make two moves though, one to bring Vatanen in and another to dump some of the dead weight on defense. I don't know if he has it in him.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I don't think a rebuild on the fly is what is likely to happen. I think this team is going to struggle for the next 2-3 years. D and Z are at the ends of their careers. Larkin is going to need some time to transition from winger to bona fide first line center, and a bit of a sophomore slump is to be expected. Mrazek is awesome, but might not be a perennial Vezina candidate like he is right now.

The guys coming up are probably not the answer, or at least not in an obvious way. Mantha has improved his all around game, but still isn't scoring a lot. AA is good, but probably not a top six player. Svechnikov is going to need time in GR, at least to work on his skating and defensive play. Bertuzzi has to show he can score at the AHL level still.

And a similar deal with the defensemen. The guys knocking on the door are mostly bottom pairing level. Saarijarvi has a lot of potential, but needs time to develop his overall game.

I think the Wings are going to have to restock the cupboard for real in not too long.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

How can a GM rebuild on the fly when he wont make any trades that might hurt in the short term, but help more in the long term? Kenny is going year to year and only focuses on moves that might help the Wings make the playoffs. Only offering picks and prospects doesn't get you a rebuild on the fly.

That sounds like what a GM does when he is trying to contend. Albeit doing it really poorly.

 

[HockeyinHD]

How can a GM rebuild on the fly when he wont make any trades that might hurt in the short term, but help more in the long term?

Does he get that what he just said is the opposite of what a build on the fly implies?

The point of building on the fly is to remain competitive in the short term while bolstering your long term chances. You don't do that by trading currently productive assets and getting worse in the short term.

That sounds like what a GM does when he is trying to contend. Albeit doing it really poorly.

That's what rebuilding on the fly is. Kinda-sorta trying to win, but not risking too many future assets to do so.

Seriously, is this something people don't know? Are all of these criticisms mired in thinking rebuilding on the fly is supposed to be winning Cups now and setting yourself up to win Cups later?

Yeah, no.

 

[HockeyinHD]

I think the Wings are going to have to restock the cupboard for real in not too long.

21, 26, 29, 19, 26, 24, 28, 24, 25, 23, 25, 31, 30, 24, 27, 23.

Those are the ages of the guys on the active roster besides D, Z and Kronwall and minus the guys not expected back next year (Richards and Quincey).

Average age: 24.

Detroit's got some time with this current group of players, yet.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

21, 26, 29, 19, 26, 24, 28, 24, 25, 23, 25, 31, 30, 24, 27, 23.

Those are the ages of the guys on the active roster besides D, Z and Kronwall and minus the guys not expected back next year (Richards and Quincey).

Average age: 24.

Detroit's got some time with this current group of players, yet.

But most of them are underperforming. Without D, Z, and Kronner, they're really going to be in tough to make the playoffs. I don't think they'll be able to score enough goals. I'm not saying they'll be a lottery team, but they'll be more in that 10-12 position.

 

[Chance on Chance]

who are other teams that have rebuilt on the fly?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

who are other teams that have rebuilt on the fly?

Without any benefit of lottery picks? One team in NHL history.

 

[HockeyinHD]

But most of them are underperforming. Without D, Z, and Kronner, they're really going to be in tough to make the playoffs.

Without those three guys they'll have 19 million dollars per year to spend in replacing them.

I don't worry about having to replace people who are barely earning what their contracts were when they left. It's having to replace the people outperforming their contracts that seems harder.

I don't think they'll be able to score enough goals. I'm not saying they'll be a lottery team, but they'll be more in that 10-12 position.

I think where we disagree is in estimating how hard it is to replace D, Z and Kronwall. Replacing what they were at their peak is hard to impossible. Replacing what they are now, far on the other side of that peak, isn't nearly as daunting a task. Neither forward is in the top 20 of the league, maybe not the top 30. Kronwall isn't in the top 20+ at his position.

I think replacements at that level are gettable with 19+ in cap space for 3 spots.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Without any benefit of lottery picks? One team in NHL history.

One might be able to site such as an indication that a GM doing this as well as Holland has done it for as long as Holland has done it could be an accomplishment worthy of decoration, not defenestration.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Without those three guys they'll have 19 million dollars per year to spend in replacing them.

I don't worry about having to replace people who are barely earning what their contracts were when they left. It's having to replace the people outperforming their contracts that seems harder.

I think where we disagree is in estimating how hard it is to replace D, Z and Kronwall. Replacing what they were at their peak is hard to impossible. Replacing what they are now, far on the other side of that peak, isn't nearly as daunting a task. Neither forward is in the top 20 of the league, maybe not the top 30. Kronwall isn't in the top 20+ at his position.



I think replacements at that level are gettable with 19+ in cap space for 3 spots.

The problem is that we can't really compete for the cup with the current version of Pav, Z and Kronner. We are a wild card team with the current version of those three player. So yes, we should be able to replace their current production. As we have seen for the last three years, however, that production isn't nearly enough to put us in cup discussions.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

One might be able to site such as an indication that a GM doing this as well as Holland has done it for as long as Holland has done it could be an accomplishment worthy of decoration, not defenestration.

Past performance is hardly a guarantee of future success.

 

[Chance on Chance]

Without those three guys they'll have 19 million dollars per year to spend in replacing them.

I don't worry about having to replace people who are barely earning what their contracts were when they left. It's having to replace the people outperforming their contracts that seems harder.



I think where we disagree is in estimating how hard it is to replace D, Z and Kronwall. Replacing what they were at their peak is hard to impossible. Replacing what they are now, far on the other side of that peak, isn't nearly as daunting a task. Neither forward is in the top 20 of the league, maybe not the top 30. Kronwall isn't in the top 20+ at his position.

I think replacements at that level are gettable with 19+ in cap space for 3 spots.

With? and all the contracts dont end at the same time anyway

 

[Reddwit]

One might be able to site such as an indication that a GM doing this as well as Holland has done it for as long as Holland has done it could be an accomplishment worthy of decoration, not defenestration.

Seems more like a period of good GMing followed by an extended period of simply playing it safe.

Also, *cite.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Without those three guys they'll have 19 million dollars per year to spend in replacing them.

I don't worry about having to replace people who are barely earning what their contracts were when they left. It's having to replace the people outperforming their contracts that seems harder.



I think where we disagree is in estimating how hard it is to replace D, Z and Kronwall. Replacing what they were at their peak is hard to impossible. Replacing what they are now, far on the other side of that peak, isn't nearly as daunting a task. Neither forward is in the top 20 of the league, maybe not the top 30. Kronwall isn't in the top 20+ at his position.

I think replacements at that level are gettable with 19+ in cap space for 3 spots.

But I think if you do that much shopping in the UFA market, you tend to end up with a substandard result. UFA players are always too expensive, and these days the contracts are always really long. That approach might actually hurt the Wings' rebuild more than it helps.

Plus, not many good players end up as UFAs anymore. You get about one good one a year, and that guy is getting paid 100+ million. These days, free agency is mostly about rolling the dice on guys who have had one or two good years and badly want to cash in while they still can. That can also hurt you more than it helps.

 

[ShelbyZ]

21, 26, 29, 19, 26, 24, 28, 24, 25, 23, 25, 31, 30, 24, 27, 23.

Those are the ages of the guys on the active roster besides D, Z and Kronwall and minus the guys not expected back next year (Richards and Quincey).

Average age: 24.

Detroit's got some time with this current group of players, yet.

I don't know... I have a feeling Holland will re-sign Quincey. I actually wouldn't be against it, especially if he could find a way to get rid of Kindl. However, there would be no spot open for Ouellet, Jensen or Sproul, who are all out of waiver exemption next season.

 

[HockeyinHD]

But I think if you do that much shopping in the UFA market, you tend to end up with a substandard result.

Maybe, maybe not.

The point is, the team already has Larkin, so the notion that they have to replace D and Z both on the UFA market is moot. Now they really only have to replace one of them with a UFA.

Detroit's typically had ~80% of their active roster being guys they've drafted and run through the whole system. Of the 19 guys who saw IT against Ottawa only 3 weren't career Wings, and that includes Quincey (who they drafted) and Dekeyser (who they signed out of the NCAAs). I don't see any indication that's changing in the near future, so if the team has to go out occasionally and get a Mike Green on the blue line or a Brad Richards up front to fill in now and then, I think that's not a strain on anything.

Plus, not many good players end up as UFAs anymore. You get about one good one a year, and that guy is getting paid 100+ million. These days, free agency is mostly about rolling the dice on guys who have had one or two good years and badly want to cash in while they still can. That can also hurt you more than it helps.

I agree. That's one of the reasons I always caution people who hammer Holland about who he doesn't sign. With UFA's the worst sin isn't missing out on them, it's getting them and being wrong. I'd far rather a GM miss out on 10 UFAs in a row and be right 1 single time every 5 years than land a targeted UFA 50% the time and then get half of those signigs wrong.

I mean, just look at the Howard deal. That one (especially) bad contract is causing real problems for the Wings. The Weiss deal was similarly bad in result. If a team could wipe out all their bad UFA signings at the cost of all their good ones, I think most of the teams in the NHL would come out ahead.

All of that said, in a couple years Detroit will have to find either internal or external replacements for a Zetterberg who puts up a 15-50, a Datsyuk who puts up 20-45, and a Kronwall who puts up 10-35 in huge three phase IT.

That's not snap your fingers easy, but it's not balancing the side of a penny on the head of a pin hard, either.

 

[Frk It]

21, 26, 29, 19, 26, 24, 28, 24, 25, 23, 25, 31, 30, 24, 27, 23.

Those are the ages of the guys on the active roster besides D, Z and Kronwall and minus the guys not expected back next year (Richards and Quincey).

Average age: 24.

Detroit's got some time with this current group of players, yet.

Great. So we will have young and good forwards. And a young and bad defense.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Seems more like a period of good GMing followed by an extended period of simply playing it safe.

Also, *cite.

I love spelling pedantry.

By playing it safe you seem to imply regularly making the playoffs is a feat any other GM could manage if they put their minds to the task.

Setting aside the vastness of Detroit's current playoff streak, would you care to guess at the number of NHL teams who have made the playoffs each of the last not 25, not 20, not 15, not 10... but 5 years? Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Rangers. 4 teams of 30 entered this season with 5 year postseason streaks.

Un, too, free, foh.

Being in the playoffs all the time isn't an indicator of playing it safe. It's an indicator of being an incredibly well-run team.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Great. So we will have young and good forwards. And a young and bad defense.

And a young and great goalie. Two out of three ain't bad.

 

[SirloinUB]

4 teams of 30 entered this season with 5 year postseason streaks.

Un, too, free, foh.

Being in the playoffs all the time isn't an indicator of playing it safe. It's an indicator of being an incredibly well-run team.

Right on point

 

[LowFive]

Getting a guy like Ekblad would be ideal (especially with him being from across the river). That being said, I just don't see someone like him being realistic given what we are willing to trade.

 

[The Zermanator]

I love spelling pedantry.

By playing it safe you seem to imply regularly making the playoffs is a feat any other GM could manage if they put their minds to the task.

Setting aside the vastness of Detroit's current playoff streak, would you care to guess at the number of NHL teams who have made the playoffs each of the last not 25, not 20, not 15, not 10... but 5 years? Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Rangers. 4 teams of 30 entered this season with 5 year postseason streaks.

Un, too, free, foh.

Being in the playoffs all the time isn't an indicator of playing it safe. It's an indicator of being an incredibly well-run team.

But if you're satisfied with that it becomes an indicator of missing the forest for the trees. The point is to compete for and win the Stanley Cup, not qualify for the tournament that decides the winner.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Seems more like a period of good GMing followed by an extended period of simply playing it safe.

Also, *cite.

I kind of agree with this. I think the Red Wings success in the Cap era has been mostly from great coaching and luck (especially in the early going).

Holland lost his mojo completely when it came time to make some hard choices after the 2008 and 2009 SCF teams. Since then, he's squandered opportunities to make what he himself calls "good hockey trades", let good UFA's walk only to follow by spending MORE money to sign garbage, and most of his UFA signings since then have been complete flops. The last probably 5 years of the streak were mostly Babcock making delicious lemonade out of Hollands lemons.

Since Lidstrom retired, he's basically just band-aided the same roster with UFA's and crossed his fingers hoping the young guys will pick up the slack (when they're finally done with waiver exemption).

I think if it weren't for the unexpectedly large contributions from Larkin and Mrazek this season, this thread would be about which players will be sent out as rentals at the deadline. There'd also be a thread about who should be fired first between Holland and Blashill...

 

[Henkka]

If lastest seasons have been luck and Babcock, what is this current situation?

Just luck?

Oh boy, Kenny should hire the next masterminds from here to run the organization.