Do the Wings finally have the pieces needed for a rebuild on the fly?

[lilidk]

More importantly is that Yzerman/Feds and Datsyuk/Z had Lidstrom

what about Russo? , he leads GR difference and he has +25 raiting

 

[HockeyinHD]

Jimmy Howard was great at Maine, Mrazek was merely good in the OHL.

2010-11: 3rd in GAA. 3rd in wins. 1st in save percentage.
2011-12: 8th in GAA. 4th in wins. 7th in save percentage.

"Merely good".

Alrighty then.

Mrazek was of course considerably better in Grand Rapids in a much smaller sample.

Yeah, because he got called up. Because the team liked him. Because he was better than Howard was in the AHL.

Are you trying to hold a guy getting promoted sooner against the player? What possible other explanation is there for including the 'smaller sample' comment?

I think Mrazek is better than Howard and I applauded Howard's demotion but I also have seen some shakiness from Mrazek that makes me wonder if he's really going to be the kind of steady high-end performer you need for a goalie to be a true building block.

So this is more of a thing where you're not familiar with how even great goalies get lit up, and not a thing about Mrazek, since you didn't know how good he was at the OHL level.

 

[HockeyinHD]

7 goals makes him elite? come on

Do you have to be more than generically offensively productive to be an elite dman?

I'm not making the argument he is elite, by the way, I'm just wondering if there's an offensive benchmark a dman has to hit before he's even considered.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Eh even with those rankings you can really only say that he was one of the better goalies in one junior league. That's fine. Never said he wasn't good. But Howard was still seen as a better player before the draft. He had the better stats in college, that's all I'm saying and obviously our team's brain trust agreed since they spent a 2nd round pick on him rather than a 5th round flyer.

So this is more of a thing where you're not familiar with how even great goalies get lit up, and not a thing about Mrazek, since you didn't know how good he was at the OHL level.

It has nothing to do with getting lit up, which indeed can happen to all of them, it's soundness. Mrazek doesn't look 100% sound out there. That's a risky gambit because if you aren't Hasek that sort of approach will typically lead to inconsistent outcomes.

I don't have a huge issue with Mrazek and am OK with him as starter but if there's one mistake that this forum repeatedly makes (and probably every team forum) it's that we tend to overrate our own young players early on. He hasn't shown enough to be seen as a franchise goalie.

 

[Heaton]

But he's shown good enough to feel comfortable dumping 5m Howard.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

But he's shown good enough to feel comfortable dumping 5m Howard.

Yeah though there's probably another factor here which is what Howard has shown. It's a combination of both factors which has led to Mrazek winning the starting job. At the end of the day you go with your best option.

 

[HomersWorld]

it just Yserman had Fedorov , And Datsyuk have Zetterberg, Larkin needs 1-2 punch at the center . We have dissent wingers in the pipe , probably difference , but not at Center .

 

[14ari13]

7 goals makes him elite? come on

assists are a WAY more important stat for Defensemen and he only has 8 of them

but I guess being tied for 22nd among Defensemen in goals makes up for being tied for 102nd in assists

and i'm sure his 13.7% shooting percentage as a Defenseman is going to continue indefinitely without massive drops right? I mean that's not a ridiculous number at all and is well in line with his career average of 5.4% that includes this year

With 2 assists last night he climbed to top 60. This is as I said while playing very little PP, almost no PP time.
As for only 7 goals, compare him to other Dmen in the league and I doubt there would be more than 3, maybe 5 with more ES goals.
And our 2 big offensive Dmen who play a lot of PP have 7 goals combined.
I am very sure DeKeyser can be a top 30 Dman in this league. Will he be top 10? I think so. Probably the only poster thinking so highly of him, but I have praised him since he came to the wings.

Do you have to be more than generically offensively productive to be an elite dman?

I'm not making the argument he is elite, by the way, I'm just wondering if there's an offensive benchmark a dman has to hit before he's even considered.

The game has changed and we see some Dmen producing a lot, while forwards produce less.
Many fans don't see it yet.

Eh even with those rankings you can really only say that he was one of the better goalies in one junior league. That's fine. Never said he wasn't good. But Howard was still seen as a better player before the draft. He had the better stats in college, that's all I'm saying and obviously our team's brain trust agreed since they spent a 2nd round pick on him rather than a 5th round flyer.

It has nothing to do with getting lit up, which indeed can happen to all of them, it's soundness. Mrazek doesn't look 100% sound out there. That's a risky gambit because if you aren't Hasek that sort of approach will typically lead to inconsistent outcomes.

I don't have a huge issue with Mrazek and am OK with him as starter but if there's one mistake that this forum repeatedly makes (and probably every team forum) it's that we tend to overrate our own young players early on. He hasn't shown enough to be seen as a franchise goalie.

Good point. Howard used to carry the wings on his back back in the day too. Now he can't win a game to save his life.

Yeah though there's probably another factor here which is what Howard has shown. It's a combination of both factors which has led to Mrazek winning the starting job. At the end of the day you go with your best option.

I thought the whole board agreed at the beginning of the season they would fight for #1. Mrazek won it. For good? I do not know.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Eh even with those rankings you can really only say that he was one of the better goalies in one junior league. That's fine. Never said he wasn't good.

For his first two full years in juniors 4 of his 6 major categories ranked inside the top 5 in the whole league.

"Merely good."

But Howard was still seen as a better player before the draft.

... which is entirely meaningless. What you are seen as has nothing to do with what you are. It doesn't matter if a player is drafted top 10, last 10, or entirely undrafted... draft position is not a leading indicator of what a player is. Each years draft is replete with dozens and dozens of cases where guys selected earlier are worse, and sometimes insanely worse, than players selected later.

He had the better stats in college, that's all I'm saying

Then the problem here is that you're comparing stats across leagues without any greater understanding of the context in which those stats were amassed. For example:

2002-3: 19th GAA, 11th sv%
2003-4: 1st in GAA, 1st in sv%
2004-5: 7th GAA, 8th sv%

Howard had a monster sophomore year (splitting time with someone who was just behind him statistically), but in every other pre-NHL season Mrazek had the stronger season.

It has nothing to do with getting lit up, which indeed can happen to all of them, it's soundness. Mrazek doesn't look 100% sound out there. That's a risky gambit because if you aren't Hasek that sort of approach will typically lead to inconsistent outcomes.

I think you're confusing style with solidity. Mrazek's not a 6'4 behemoth who can just sit there and soak up shots. His style is solid in that it's been the same throughout his career to date.

As has his performance on the ice.

He hasn't shown enough to be seen as a franchise goalie.

So, how many years does he have to be in the top 5 goalies in the leagues he is in before you'll allow yourself to think he's a top 5 goalie in the league he's in?

 

[HockeyinHD]

The game has changed and we see some Dmen producing a lot, while forwards produce less.
Many fans don't see it yet.

For example, is Ryan Suter elite? He's never had more than 46 points in a season and he plays 25+ minutes a night, on all three units.

Good point. Howard used to carry the wings on his back back in the day too.

Which version of the Wings roster was better: the team in the 4 seasons from 2009-10 through 2012-13 when Howard put up better numbers, or the one from 2013-14 on when he's been bad and Mrazek has put up better numbers?

That older version had Lidstrom through 2012, Rafalski through 2011, Fil and Hudler through 12, it had Franzen scoring 28 and then 29 goals in 11 and 12, and it had Zetterberg at ages 28-31 and Datsyuk at ages 31-34.

IMO that older roster, the one Howard was playing well behind, was substantially and generally stronger than the one they've put out lately. The only disparate event point is the strike shortened year in 2013. That's the one season Howard played well behind a roster similar in overall skill to the ones Mrazek has been behind.

I thought the whole board agreed at the beginning of the season they would fight for #1. Mrazek won it. For good? I do not know.

I thought it was a 'fight' in that two people would enter a ring and attempt to win. I did not think it was a fair fight, in that either guy had roughly the same shot at the job.

 

[nina2001]

For example, is Ryan Suter elite? He's never had more than 46 points in a season and he plays 25+ minutes a night, on all three

I don't know what style the Wild play but I feel pretty confident that he would put up more points in Detroit. Too bad because he was a perfect fit for this team.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

For his first two full years in juniors 4 of his 6 major categories ranked inside the top 5 in the whole league.

"Merely good."

Clearly you operate with another definition of 'good' than me so that's fair enough.

... which is entirely meaningless. What you are seen as has nothing to do with what you are. It doesn't matter if a player is drafted top 10, last 10, or entirely undrafted... draft position is not a leading indicator of what a player is. Each years draft is replete with dozens and dozens of cases where guys selected earlier are worse, and sometimes insanely worse, than players selected later.

Of course and I never said Howard is better than Mrazek, I said that Howard at the time of the draft was rated more highly than Mrazek at the same stage by the same organization. That's pretty obvious, not sure why you struggle with that. In fact, my whole point is that early impressions can be deceiving which you seem to suggest has been the case with Howard.

I think you're confusing style with solidity. Mrazek's not a 6'4 behemoth who can just sit there and soak up shots. His style is solid in that it's been the same throughout his career to date.

As has his performance on the ice.

And those behemoths sitting there effortlessly adjusting their position by inches to basically stop everything are the franchise goalies of this era.

So, how many years does he have to be in the top 5 goalies in the leagues he is in before you'll allow yourself to think he's a top 5 goalie in the league he's in?

The question isn't if he is a top 5 goalie this year. In order to be a franchise goalie we need to know he will be an elite goalie for at least the next decade. And for that to be considered a 'proven' fact, I'd like a bigger sample size than one season sharing starting duties and 2/3 of a season as a starter. Plenty of goalies have had Vezina type years without living up to the franchise goalie tag thereafter.

 

[14ari13]

For example, is Ryan Suter elite? He's never had more than 46 points in a season and he plays 25+ minutes a night, on all three units.

I do not know what elite is on this board, but it would not surprise me if it was one Dman only
Anyhow, I think it should be the 16 that make playoffs and plus some. Maybe the posters here consider elite only the ones who get Norris nomination.

I consider DeKeyser elite. He is not there yet, but he will be this season or the next one
IMHO.

 

[Henkka]

And for that to be considered a 'proven' fact, I'd like a bigger sample size than one season sharing starting duties and 2/3 of a season as a starter. Plenty of goalies have had Vezina type years without living up to the franchise goalie tag thereafter.

4 season average is a good starting point. That proves something about a goaltender.

Just like we did with Howard. 4 season sample size, he looked good and was signed for a long extension.

Everything was made right.

And at next season, he blows his groin at first time and has never been same as 2009 to 2013.

Everything was built perfectly and you still won't have any quarantee.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Clearly you operate with another definition of 'good' than me so that's fair enough.

Yeah. My definition of good tends to start fading into 'great' when a player is in the top 5 of his league most of the time.

But, sure, if you want to call anything outside the top 2 or 3 goalies in a league 'merely good'... hey, who's gonna stop ya?

Of course and I never said Howard is better than Mrazek, I said that Howard at the time of the draft was rated more highly than Mrazek at the same stage by the same organization.

... and then you attempted to imply that the existence of the assessment validated the assessment. This discussion is about who has been the better goalie. Your intent there was to give support for your position that Howard was a better goalie at the time by noting his better draft position.

This was why I mentioned draft position has no meaning regarding the ability of the player. Whether Howard got drafted 1st overall or last overall he'd be the same player.

And those behemoths sitting there effortlessly adjusting their position by inches to basically stop everything are the franchise goalies of this era.

How many franchise goalies can you name me who are taller than 6'3"? I'm thinking maybe 1, Rinne. If you want to go to 2 just to say Bishop, that would be funny, but I think that's what it would take to get to two.

The question isn't if he is a top 5 goalie this year. In order to be a franchise goalie we need to know he will be an elite goalie for at least the next decade.

Why do you have to be an elite goalie for a decade? Why is being a top 5 goalie not good enough?

And for that to be considered a 'proven' fact, I'd like a bigger sample size than one season sharing starting duties and 2/3 of a season as a starter. Plenty of goalies have had Vezina type years without living up to the franchise goalie tag thereafter.

That's why I pointed you in the direction of his pre-NHL career, so you'd have had access to the historical pattern of a very high level of performance. I didn't know then that being in the top 5 was something you only considered 'merely good', though.

 

[HockeyinHD]

4 season average is a good starting point. That proves something about a goaltender.

Just like we did with Howard. 4 season sample size, he looked good and was signed for a long extension.

Everything was made right.

And at next season, he blows his groin at first time and has never been same as 2009 to 2013.

Everything was built perfectly and you still won't have any guarantee.

Completely agree. Right now, Mrazek's obviously a top 5-7 goaltender in the NHL, at the very least. There's no reason to either believe or disbelieve he can do that for another decade. All the rational mind can do is proceed on the information we have available. What we know about Mrazek is that he's great in the NHL and he's been great at every developmental step up the chain to date.

 

[InjuredChoker]

How many franchise goalies can you name me who are taller than 6'3"? I'm thinking maybe 1, Rinne. If you want to go to 2 just to say Bishop, that would be funny, but I think that's what it would take to get to two.

steve mason too.

 

[Frk It]

Do you have to be more than generically offensively productive to be an elite dman?

I'm not making the argument he is elite, by the way, I'm just wondering if there's an offensive benchmark a dman has to hit before he's even considered.

I think you have to be at least over .5 ppg. Ideally while also being great defensively. If you're not great defensively, then you have to be a top point producer.

Also, I consider Ryan Suter elite.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I think you have to be at least over .5 ppg. Ideally while also being great defensively. If you're not great defensively, then you have to be a top point producer.

Also, I consider Ryan Suter elite.

Most do. Suter is incredible.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Yeah. My definition of good tends to start fading into 'great' when a player is in the top 5 of his league most of the time.

But, sure, if you want to call anything outside the top 2 or 3 goalies in a league 'merely good'... hey, who's gonna stop ya?.

Dude it's *one* of 3 major junior leagues in Canada. So he's then, what, in the top 15 goalies in Canadian major junior hockey at the time? That doesn't sound quite *as* impressive, does it?

Mrazek was ranked the 25th North America-based goalie by CSS going into the draft. That was obviously too low given his production since but it gives you an indication of how his 1st year junior performance was appraised at the time. So even though of course he was drafted before his two last years of junior. It's not like he was considered a sure star coming out of there either. It's not like I live in a cave and I don't even remember this forum being like super excited about him then.

With regard to 'why does he have to be an elite goalie for a decade rather than just be a top 5 goalie now'? Because this thread is about building blocks. For a goalie to be a cornerstone for a franchise he better be elite for a long time i.e. like the names I mentioned earlier. What use would he be for the franchise if he's top 5 now and is a mediocrity 2-3 years down the line? Which again - we have seen with goalies. There's a reason the Wings didn't build their run on goaltending. There's not a lot of goalies out there who will be that franchise goalie for you, it's only a few special talents.