Prospect Info: Do Canucks fans badly overrate their own prospects?

[Pip]

I am having this debate with a few people right now, especially on the main boards where they treat Gaudette like a generational talent.

I think you're exaggerating here.

I find the Canucks fanbase does not just overrate their prospects (I say most if not all fanbases do), but the Canucks do it maybe more than any other fanbase in the league (Leafs debate-able).

Wrong. Every fan base is nearly identical. We are not special as a fan base. What does happen is teams with mediocre to bad prospects tend to overrate the ones they have. We just happen to have a large fan base which means more attention to this team and its prospects.

I remember back when Cole Cassels was a prospect (I feel victim to this also), his hype was absolutely staggering, I remember people him pegging him into the line up the year after, 100% third liner by the 2016 season. Even tho he had god awful skating.

Cassels was a good tracking prospect that didn't work out. It happens all the time. There was some underserved hype because him shutting down McDavid (which in reality wasn't a team effort where Brown did a fantastic job as well), was a nice story.

The Canucks have had countless prospects who had rediculous hype, Cody Hodgson, Schroader, remember Jason king and Fedor Fedorov?

There's always WJC stars and greatness tracking prospects that didn't work out. If Hodgson and Schroeder were in another organization they would have received somewhat similar hype.

So what do you think?, is it the same as every fanbase?, or do we overdue it more?

It's basically the same. In Canada (and some US markets) there is a larger fan base which leads to more media attention and more individuals that have unrealistic expectations for prospects.

 

[RobertKron]

And you could even say Hodgson made it, just not for very long. He had 2, 2 and a half seasons of decent NHL production worthy of a good player.

That's part of what I'm saying, though. For so many, the threshold for a first rounder not being considered a bust is that they go on to be an upper-roster contributor for a long NHL career. Almost nobody does that.

 

[RobertKron]

I will say after Benning this has died down considerably - Granny/Bae are somewhat successful in the NHL and there is little to no hype. Linden Vey if he was a Nuck draft pick would've been hyped up around Hodgson levels but there wasn't much when we acquired him.

You could say a similar thing about Dale Weise, though. Drafted prospects almost always carry more hype because the fan base has followed those guys when they were really high end players in junior, and expect that after an adjustment period they'll be able to do the same thing in the NHL.

 

[Pastor Of Muppets]

Some truth to that. We've hardly been blessed at the draft over the years.

...and thats what is killing us right now....In 17 years we haven't been able to draft a succession plan for the Sedins.

 

[Hit the post]

...and thats what is killing us right now....In 17 years we haven't been able to draft a succession plan for the Sedins.

Well all things considered - for all intents & purposes, the twins were #1 & #2 in their draft (forget "technically" where they were drafted). Tough to get that in two drafts let alone one.

 

[F A N]

20 picks mean nothing when analyzing a draft pick now? OK then. Then you should have mentioned Pavelski taken in the 7th round too.

In the context of late 1st round picks vs guys drafted in the early to mid 2nd round?
Not really. Pretty much every year there is a potential mid to late 1st round pick who ends up being drafted in the 2nd round. Again, there's also the presence of Corey Perry who no doubt is a better pick.

Richards looked like a better player for a year or two before they were even 25. It's clear as day who is having the far better career at this point.

Exactly. That's why I said for a short period of time. So you agree then.

You are going to some extreme lengths to make a bizarre point that Kesler wasn't a good pick, and it's quite sad.

Huh? When did I say Kesler is not a good pick? It's quite sad that that's what you got from our discussion here.

 

[F A N]

Well all things considered - for all intents & purposes, the twins were #1 & #2 in their draft (forget "technically" where they were drafted). Tough to get that in two drafts let alone one.

Technically no but I completely agree with your main point. If I remember correctly, the consensus was that Stefan was the consensus #1. Without concussion issues Stefan would have been the runaway #1. Regardless, Henrik was considered to be behind the top 3 of Stefan, Daniel, and Brendl. That's why with the #3 pick, Burke said he declared that no one is leaving the draft with both Sedins because the idea is that no team would let Stefan drop to #3. And once Burke got #4, it made no sense that a team would bypass drafting Stefan and Daniel/Brendl in favour of Sedins. That's why Atlanta was willing to give a 3rd to move up from #2 to #1 not just for PR reasons but to draft Stefan.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Just as a sidebar to this, very interesting is our historic propensity to sign the lesser sibling (Fedorov, Kariya, Subban, Granlund etc) of very good to great players and expect similar results. That's a peculiar Vancouverism though I'm not sure exactly how or why it's come about. I think it probably originated as another cheesy rain belt marketing gimmick for the rubes, who it must be admitted never fail to take the bait. The current Jordan Subban idolatry illustrates this phenomenon perfectly.

But yes, we do seem to overrate our prospects, more so than fans of most other teams do. It's no doubt at least partly due to our traditional paucity of good prospects which again is a byproduct of the traditional rain belt 'win now and the future be damned' ownership philosophy. If you follow along carefully through the years it's obvious we've gotten about what we have deserved in the way of on ice success and the pattern appears unbroken deep into the future. It's a fixed mindset.

 

[Hit the post]

Technically no but I completely agree with your main point. If I remember correctly, the consensus was that Stefan was the consensus #1. Without concussion issues Stefan would have been the runaway #1. Regardless, Henrik was considered to be behind the top 3 of Stefan, Daniel, and Brendl. That's why with the #3 pick, Burke said he declared that no one is leaving the draft with both Sedins because the idea is that no team would let Stefan drop to #3. And once Burke got #4, it made no sense that a team would bypass drafting Stefan and Daniel/Brendl in favour of Sedins. That's why Atlanta was willing to give a 3rd to move up from #2 to #1 not just for PR reasons but to draft Stefan.

Thanks for the clarification....btw, what ever happened to Brendl? Granted he was only one of the MANY busts in the 1st round that year.

 

[F A N]

Just as a sidebar to this, very interesting is our historic propensity to sign the lesser sibling (Fedorov, Kariya, Subban, Granlund etc) of very good to great players and expect similar results. That's a peculiar Vancouverism though I'm not sure exactly how or why it's come about. I think it probably originated as another cheesy rain belt marketing gimmick for the rubes, who it must be admitted never fail to take the bait. The current Jordan Subban idolatry illustrates this phenomenon perfectly.

That's an unfair assessment. At no time was Fedor expected to be Sergei, Steve to be Paul, Jordan to be PK, and Markus to be Mikael. But those players were regarded as solid to good prospects in their own right and acquired for value commensurate with their standing.

Fedor was a re-entry who made a huge jump in his original draft + 2 year. Steve was a UFA signing who excelled in college, Jordan was a late 4th round pick, Markus is a former 2nd round pick who has shown flashes in the NHL and who has produced offensively everywhere he has been but the NHL.

If anything, it was P.K. who hyped Jordan up saying he's the best Subban. And had Subban grown a few inches (given Malcom is 6'2" and P.K. is 6'0") that would allow him to defend better, who knows how good Jordan could be. He has certainly put up good offensive numbers both in the OHL and AHL.

 

[F A N]

Thanks for the clarification....btw, what ever happened to Brendl? Granted he was only one of the MANY busts in the 1st round that year.

I think it was work ethic and attitude problems. Basically he didn't eat right and he didn't work hard. He was also drafted in an era where playing a 200 foot game didn't matter all that much if you produced offensively and you can float if you produced offensively. His goal scoring talent was undeniable though.

Personally, I wanted the Canucks to give Brendl a chance when he was ripping up the SEL and then KHL.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

That's an unfair assessment. At no time was Fedor expected to be Sergei, Steve to be Paul, Jordan to be PK, and Markus to be Mikael. But those players were regarded as solid to good prospects in their own right and acquired for value commensurate with their standing.

Fedor was a re-entry who made a huge jump in his original draft + 2 year. Steve was a UFA signing who excelled in college, Jordan was a late 4th round pick, Markus is a former 2nd round pick who has shown flashes in the NHL and who has produced offensively everywhere he has been but the NHL.

If anything, it was P.K. who hyped Jordan up saying he's the best Subban. And had Subban grown a few inches (given Malcom is 6'2" and P.K. is 6'0") that would allow him to defend better, who knows how good Jordan could be. He has certainly put up good offensive numbers both in the OHL and AHL.

Please ignore the private messages sent. Those were meant to be a simple response to your response to my post posted here I thought. I don't know what happened there.


*I would just add that of the four, Markus was the only real player. The others all clearly lacked some of the necessities.

 

[F A N]

Please ignore the private messages sent. Those were meant to be a simple response to your response to my post posted here I thought. I don't know what happened there.

Ya that's pretty weird but it's all good.

*I would just add that of the four, Markus was the only real player. The others all clearly lacked some of the necessities.

But Markus was also the highest drafted player and acquired at the highest price among the players you mentioned and for good reason. Markus is closer to Mikael than the rest are compared to their famous brothers.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Ya that's pretty weird but it's all good.



But Markus was also the highest drafted player and acquired at the highest price among the players you mentioned and for good reason. Markus is closer to Mikael than the rest are compared to their famous brothers.

I agree with that. I like Markus, he's the real deal I think. I used to get irritated with people's expectations re the others though. Hence my frustration with the whole lesser sibling angle which I sincerely hope we've moved beyond.

 

[Hit the post]

Speaking of so-called "inferior siblings"....We got the "good one" in Patrik Sundström. Him and his brother Peter like the Sedins were twins.

He played good enough to attract enough interest in New Jersey acquiring him for Kirk MacLean, Greg Adams & a draft pick. Sundstrom & Tanti were quite an effective duo for us in several seasons.

 

[tantalum]

I think it was work ethic and attitude problems. Basically he didn't eat right and he didn't work hard. He was also drafted in an era where playing a 200 foot game didn't matter all that much if you produced offensively and you can float if you produced offensively. His goal scoring talent was undeniable though.

Personally, I wanted the Canucks to give Brendl a chance when he was ripping up the SEL and then KHL.

Pretty much. Brendl adapted to the North American lifestyle like Krutov did. There were stories written about his love of hot dogs. Like eating 6 or 8 before bed type of thing. His diet was supplemented with intense channel surfing while sitting on the couch.

From an Maki piece:

Brendl's diet would raise an elephant's cholesterol. He eats wieners, doughnuts, wiener schnitzel, mashed potatoes, hot dogs and the extremely occasional vegetable. He also loves garlic soup but only his mom's garlic soup, which sources say is strong enough to keep a dozen vampires at bay.

The thing was at the conclusion of all these pieces talking about how he didn't eat properly, only watched TV, didn't play defense at all, easy to knock off the puck (no strength), had no real hockey heroes, didn't watch or follow hockey etc there was a "but he's can't miss prospect" tacked on at the end. It's amazing to see the old school scouts and GMs just discount the big flashing warning signs because 73 goals.

Talent was undeniable but there should have been massive question marks that he shouldn't have been flirting with first overall at all. And there were question marks at least around town at the time. His hands were amazing though. Witnessed that several times first hand from the seat in the Saddledome.

And it never changed...his second last stop in the NHL was Carolina.

Like in Philadelphia, Brendl spent the majority of his time switching between the AHL and the NHL club. Brendl spent even less time in the NHL with the Canes than he did with the Flyers. Coaches and the media began to question his commitment to the team. His effort on the ice was questioned along with his diet. It appeared that Brendl put on some weight while he was with the Hurricanes. Several Canes fans noted that he was also a regular at certain donut shops in north Raleigh, leading to the nickname “Krispy Kreme.”

There is a fantastic summary that JetsAlternate posted in January that I pulled the above quotes from.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2180773

 

[Fatass]

No, we (Canuck's fans) don't overvalue our prospects. I think other teams' fans undervalue our guys.

 

[CanaFan]

No, we (Canuck's fans) don't overvalue our prospects. I think other teams' fans undervalue our guys.

I'm not crazy, it's everyone else who is.

 

[valkynax]

I'm not crazy, it's everyone else who is.

If everyone else is crazy and you're the only one who's not bananas then you'd STILL be ruled insane by majority.


Anyways, I think every fan base tend to overrate their players. It's kind of a natural thing to do, hard to avoid. We just gotta be aware of the fact that we may be overrating our players, and temper our expectations.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I'm not crazy, it's everyone else who is.

Obligatory...

 

[IComeInPeace]

Jason King was a 7th round pick, who increased his point totals by 10 in his draft +1 season before turning pro...he wasn't hyped; he was hoped. As in 'we hoped' he'd become a full time NHL'er.

Fedor Fedorov was drafted by the Bolts, and not even signed by them. Again, we hoped we had something in him, but he was a longshot. In his draft +1 season, he put up 7 goals and 17 points in 60 OHL games. There was no hype.

 

[RobertKron]

Jason King was a 7th round pick, who increased his point totals by 10 in his draft +1 season before turning pro...he wasn't hyped; he was hoped. As in 'we hoped' he'd become a full time NHL'er.

Fedor Fedorov was drafted by the Bolts, and not even signed by them. Again, we hoped we had something in him, but he was a longshot. In his draft +1 season, he put up 7 goals and 17 points in 60 OHL games. There was no hype.

King also won rookie of the month, and looked legitimately good for about a ~two-month stretch as a 21yo. He really wasn't hyped much until he was actually producing in the NHL. IIRC, he then suffered a pretty solid dinger of a concussion the next year that put him out stretching into the following season.

IMO, these conversations are often at least partially a lot of folks talking about players they really hyped up when they were like 9 years old as though actual adults who followed the team closely at the time felt the same way.

I could very well be mistaken, but wasn't OP the same person who started the "underwater ski resort with the rebel alliance flag" thread a few years after Jason King did his thing?

 

[KeninsFan]

You could say a similar thing about Dale Weise, though. Drafted prospects almost always carry more hype because the fan base has followed those guys when they were really high end players in junior, and expect that after an adjustment period they'll be able to do the same thing in the NHL.

I would agree but I think there has been a drop in hype since Benning has been hired.

When Gillis acquired Bernier there was the typical 'next Bertuzzi' label and Hodgson was hyped to hell.

Benning paid a similar price for Granny/Bae but the hype has been minimal. Virtanen has been the highest pick since the Sedins and the ceiling on him has been 30+30. Can you honestly say that if Nylander was picked the hype wouldn't be more like 'the next Pat Kane'?

Schroeder and Boeser were similar picks but JS was hyped as the next Martin St. Louis (lol). Boeser who's been much better since the draft has hyped to a 40g scorer? Maybe a TJ Oshie level guy? Pretty realistic and tempered.

 

[CanaFan]

I would agree but I think there has been a drop in hype since Benning has been hired.

When Gillis acquired Bernier there was the typical 'next Bertuzzi' label and Hodgson was hyped to hell.

Benning paid a similar price for Granny/Bae but the hype has been minimal. Virtanen has been the highest pick since the Sedins and the ceiling on him has been 30+30. Can you honestly say that if Nylander was picked the hype wouldn't be more like 'the next Pat Kane'?

Schroeder and Boeser were similar picks but JS was hyped as the next Martin St. Louis (lol). Boeser who's been much better since the draft has hyped to a 40g scorer? Maybe a TJ Oshie level guy? Pretty realistic and tempered.

Wow, I really don't remember anything resembling "the next Bertuzzi" or MSL for guys like Bernier and Schroeder. I recall lots of posters describing Schroeder as a "steal" at pick 22 but I don't recall much more than that. And with Bernier there was some talk that he had untapped potential and probably some mentions of "power forwards take longer, like Bertuzzi" but I doubt too many fans legit thought we'd just acquired a future 46-goal scorer for a pair of draft picks.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

all Canadian teams fans are horrendous for it. Its embarrassing to read a lot of prospect threads for certain Canadian teams

Leafs are worst by far, then Nucks, then Oilers....then next notch down is Jets....Flames/Sens/Habs are the most bearable IMO

But that's what the site is for... for fans to express themselves.... makes for entertaining reading!!!