Prospect Info: Do Canucks fans badly overrate their own prospects?

[y2kcanucks]

An easy way to look at this would be to give Horvat the linemates of the *actual* best or 2nd best Centre in the NHL.

How many more points would Bo have if he lined up with some combination of elite wingers like Chris Kunitz, Conor Sheary, or Jake Guentzel?

Cause that's what Crosby had to work with this year and he still didn't hit 90 points.

Except Crosby didn't have Desjardins as his coach.

Something something Ryan Johansen.

 

[BloatedGuppy]

Kind of like how the conditions were under Gillis.

Well exactly. I don't blame Gillis or Burke or Nonis for trading future stocks for now pieces when the team was a competitive juggernaut. That's ridiculous. The goal isn't to perpetually win your division and bow out in the second round, it's to win a cup.

The only time I reference the fact the team drafted terribly/had very few picks over the preceding decade and change leading up to the Linden/Benning era is when addressing people who think the disastrous team state is a catastrophe PURELY sprung from the loins of those two luminaries. This was always a pit the team was going to fall into. Our awful management has made a bad situation worse, but they didn't start the fire. They've just poured gasoline on it.

Hockey is cyclical. We were near the top for a long time, while Winnipeg, Edmonton, Toronto, etc picked up scraps at the bottom of the standings. Guess whose turn it is now?

Anyway this is off topic yes we overrate our prospects.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

I'd say we are Top4 of the Canadian teams who do, and Top10 of overall teams in a lot of ways. I'd rate us in the Habs/Leafs/Oilers as teams who have overrated our prospects and players more than the Jets/Flames/Sens as each of those teams have shown history to use them in trade.
Compared to the rest of the league, I'd say we've rated in the Top15 consistently but have reached a peak of inside the Top10 of fans who overrate their own players/prospects. We've had and have some good players/prospects. But some days it feels you get a lot more of the EA NHL GM's on here rather than people who have been able to follow and understand the business end of the NHL. A big one for me is the player point projections are always so high like everyone has their shooting strength up on NHL 17 thinking players like Granlund can score from above the hash marks on the Reggie! Whereas the NHL has seen one 100 point player in the past like 4 seasons! The acceptable attitude of the new nhl's clutch and grab dead puck era hockey has reached full on a player/official level but fans are still expecting 120 point Crosby/McDavid's

 

[Hit the post]

Well exactly. I don't blame Gillis or Burke or Nonis for trading future stocks for now pieces when the team was a competitive juggernaut. That's ridiculous. The goal isn't to perpetually win your division and bow out in the second round, it's to win a cup.

The only time I reference the fact the team drafted terribly/had very few picks over the preceding decade and change leading up to the Linden/Benning era is when addressing people who think the disastrous team state is a catastrophe PURELY sprung from the loins of those two luminaries. This was always a pit the team was going to fall into. Our awful management has made a bad situation worse, but they didn't start the fire. They've just poured gasoline on it.

Hockey is cyclical. We were near the top for a long time, while Winnipeg, Edmonton, Toronto, etc picked up scraps at the bottom of the standings. Guess whose turn it is now?

Anyway this is off topic yes we overrate our prospects.

To be fair, most/all other fans of teams tend to overrate their prospects (reasonable given that it's difficult to be entirely neutral about such things as they apply to ones favourite team).

 

[Fire Benning]

Every fanbase does. Every fanbase overrates their B level prospects and often forgets that every team basically has at least 3 or 4 of those guys. For the Canucks, it's guys like Gaudette and Lockwood.

 

[timw33]

I remember when everyone was super excited about Jeremy Price.

 

[PG Canuck]

An easy way to look at this would be to give Horvat the linemates of the *actual* best or 2nd best Centre in the NHL.

How many more points would Bo have if he lined up with some combination of elite wingers like Chris Kunitz, Conor Sheary, or Jake Guentzel?

Cause that's what Crosby had to work with this year and he still didn't hit 90 points.

One of these things is not like the others.

 

[Havre]

I can only speak for myself. I don´t. I think our prospect pool is s%#".

We most likely wasted a high pick on Virtanen. We traded McCann. We might have found something in Forsling, but we traded him. We lost Tryamkin. And still our prospect pool looks good? Doesn´t add up - other teams do draft young players as well.

We might not have the worst group in the NHL, but before the 2017 draft it has to be bottom 15. Probably bottom 10.

 

[Zombotron]

Haha, yeah! Brock Boeser signed! Look out, world!

(The Penguins have like 5 Boesers)

oh

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I think it is more of a general HF phenomenon that is present across all fan-bases:

1) Players under 25 are generally overrated because they have some "ceiling" that most of them will probably never hit, and people think that a 23 year old is still going to hit this "ceiling" when in reality if he has played 300 NHL games he probably is who he is going to be.

2) People cling to draft-time opinions of players forever, especially first round talents. If a guy is 21 and former 3rd overall pick, people generally still see him in the same way they did at the time of the draft, even though we now have 3 more years of information that we should be using to update our opinions.

3) Conversely, players over the magic age of 25 are generally thought of as worthless garbage, so any trade of a 22 year old for a 32 year old is massively slanted in favor of the fans thinking the team that got the younger player fleeced the other one, as we saw with the terrible Hansen trade that people here love so much.

4) The goal of most fans here is to collect as many shiny prospects as possible, moreso than actually winning. Someone posted some hilarious quotes from Pens fans regarding Jack Skille when he was with them. The fans were LIVID that their coach wasn't giving this hot young player more ice time, and didn't seem to care about the 2 cups they won. BUT BUT PROSPECTZZ. We see the same thing with Canuck fans where some here STILL cannot get over that we did not give Shirokov enough ice time on the greatest team we have ever assembled.

I think that all of these traits common on these forums in general, and do not vary significantly from fanbase to fanbase.

 

[CanaFan]

One of these things is not like the others.

Ya? Lemme guess, Kunitz is the *elite* winger?

 

[PG Canuck]

Ya? Lemme guess, Kunitz is the *elite* winger?

Guentzky and Sheary are elite broooo.

 

[Kryten]

Guentzky and Sheary are elite broooo.

Guentzky is unreal.

 

[KeninsFan]

I voted 'Yes (More than the average Fanbase)'

The Nucks have a larger than average fanbase the hype around our prospects intensifies. It's no surprise Leafs fans overrate their prospects the most - Leafs fans are one (if not the largest) fanbases online.

I will say after Benning this has died down considerably - Granny/Bae are somewhat successful in the NHL and there is little to no hype. Linden Vey if he was a Nuck draft pick would've been hyped up around Hodgson levels but there wasn't much when we acquired him.

 

[CanaFan]

Guentzky and Sheary are elite broooo.

I get that you're upset that I listed Kunitz with the other two but I'm not sure why.

The poster implied that if Bo had "elite linemates" he would be the 2nd best scorer in the league. I simply listed the most frequent linemates of the actual 2nd best scorer in the league this year, none of whom are *elite*.

If you wish to disagree with this then it would be less confusing if you just said so. Otherwise I have no idea wtf you're trying to say here.

 

[ginner classic]

People not only over rate the upside of prospects, they fail to understand the time they take to contribute, the spectrum of outcomes, and the probabilities associated with those outcomes.

Pencilling in prospects into a future lineup is the worst example of that.

 

[Verviticus]

3) Conversely, players over the magic age of 25 are generally thought of as worthless garbage, so any trade of a 22 year old for a 32 year old is massively slanted in favor of the fans thinking the team that got the younger player fleeced the other one, as we saw with the terrible Hansen trade that people here love so much.

this trade is weird because zero smart sharks fan were happy with it and only like 10% of smart canucks fans seem to be ok with it

 

[thefeebster]

I certainly have over-hyped in the past, tried to think more optimistically when i was younger. Guilty. But i think i've turned more jaded now with age.

Weird list of examples. For Hodgson, the hype was 100% justified. Schroeder wasn't all that hyped, people were just excited when he dropped to our late drafting position because he was projected higher.

This one, i don't know. There were several posts about him and Hodgson being our Kane/Toews during that draft offseason. I think what hurt Schroeder was that poor Draft+1, which pretty much killed the summer hype, whereas the Hodgson hype carried on through several successful OHL seasons.

 

[EpochLink]

Hodgson is out of the league, Schroeder is in the Wild system on the bottom six.

Hodgson could've been something but his daddy complained about ice time, where his defensive skills sucked monkey ****.

Whatever, I drank the Hodgson kool aid like everyone here.

Future captain Cody Hodgson LMAO.
We must've smoked some funny things back then..

 

[n00bxQb]

We're just as bad as any hockey-centric market. I wouldn't say worse.

 

[Hit the post]

Future captain Cody Hodgson LMAO.
We must've smoked some funny things back then..

He played well enough (with both us & the Sabres) to get that contract extension with the Sabres. It wasn't all 'hot air' (the hype). Definite real warts for him to work on but you could see there was the talent there.

Look at Bo Horvat on how he worked on his weaknesses (and continues to work on). Night and day (granted, unlike Cody, he didn't have a major injury to overcome on that road....)

Sure, Bo Horvat ain't going to be Batman - but he makes for solid "Nightwing".....A shame Cody couldn't develop into a Carrie Kelley Robin but instead turn into a Jason Todd Robin.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Hodgson is out of the league, Schroeder is in the Wild system on the bottom six.

Hodgson could've been something but his daddy complained about ice time, where his defensive skills sucked monkey ****.

Whatever, I drank the Hodgson kool aid like everyone here.

Future captain Cody Hodgson LMAO.
We must've smoked some funny things back then..

Unfair. Yes we were thrilled that he was coming up. However, IIRC, he was at one point deemed the number one prospect in the league. too bad the Canucks weren't able to sell him for more than Kassian. And to bad the Canucks weren't able to repair Kassian.

 

[RobertKron]

People tend to vastly underappreciate how good a lot of busts are, and how slim the margin is between a high end player and a disappointment.

The level required to make it as an NHL success - especially as a high end player - really can't be understated. Even a ton of, if not most, prospects who look very good all the way to the NHL will still fail to make it as consistent career impact players.

The idea, for example, presented above about how it was silly to think Hodgson would be an impact player is an example of that. Hodgson was a legitimate top-end prospect coming out of junior. To say otherwise is simply looking at it in hindsight. He still didn't make it. It happens.

That said, there is also a tendency to think of a team's prospects in isolation. There are only ~700 NHL jobs. Almost nobody makes it. Every team has a bunch of guys who are successful at lower levels. Most of those guys won't make it. Almost none of them will become high end contributors for a whole career. Most definitions of "bust" could also probably use some serious adjustments.

 

[Verviticus]

plenty of nhl players make it, look great, and then immediately fizzle away too

 

[Captain Bowie]

People tend to vastly underappreciate how good a lot of busts are, and how slim the margin is between a high end player and a disappointment.

The level required to make it as an NHL success - especially as a high end player - really can't be understated. Even a ton of, if not most, prospects who look very good all the way to the NHL will still fail to make it as consistent career impact players.

The idea, for example, presented above about how it was silly to think Hodgson would be an impact player is an example of that. Hodgson was a legitimate top-end prospect coming out of junior. To say otherwise is simply looking at it in hindsight. He still didn't make it. It happens.

That said, there is also a tendency to think of a team's prospects in isolation. There are only ~700 NHL jobs. Almost nobody makes it. Every team has a bunch of guys who are successful at lower levels. Most of those guys won't make it. Almost none of them will become high end contributors for a whole career. Most definitions of "bust" could also probably use some serious adjustments.

And you could even say Hodgson made it, just not for very long. He had 2, 2 and a half seasons of decent NHL production worthy of a good player.