Discussion: Are we a Lottery Team?

[opendoor]

That article made some unusual conclusions. They look at Miller's long term numbers when it suits them and ignore them when they don't. Miller has a good SV% vs high percentage chances, therefore he will be back with that same random high number discarding the long term trend down, the trend down in medium and even the dip in low.

Does this assumption make sense? Will he bounce back? What I see is a five year downward trend in SV% in both medium and high percentage chances, the sort off thing an aging player might show. It is far more likely this trends are the truth and that a 1 off random high SV% bounce back is an aberration.

His low % line took a dive as well last year but it just dropped back to its average from a 13-14 aberration.

Yeah, definitely an odd conclusion. Especially when you consider that Miller is traditionally fairly poor at stopping high percentage chances relative to other starters. Over the last 4 seasons he's #16 among 23 guys with 7500+ minutes in Sv%H.

And there's also the fact that Miller had one of the easier workloads in the NHL this year in terms of ratio of high danger shots relative to total shots. Regardless of how good he was on high danger shots, his sv% on those was still in the .850s and if he has to face a higher proportion of those tougher shots his numbers could drop. Just as an example, if he had to face Lack's proportions of low, medium and high shots from this year, his 5-on-5 sv% would drop several points into the .910 range.

 

[BobbyJazzLegs]

Yeah. Well that's my point, right.

We've been out of contention for a couple of years (and jump started the rebuild trading Schneider for Horvat right off the top).

I hope we can maintain that momentum and add a few cornerstone type pieces over the next two or three years but I have a feeling we won't really bottom out until towards the end of the current Sedin deals.

If they do that, and if they can hit on some players with a few mid round picks, then adding that to what's in place now should give us the makings of a good young team.

That's ultimately the plan as far as I'm concerned. Hopefully we can make good on some picks in the single digits even if they aren't top 3 (ie Sean monahan, John guadreau).

If we do see good results from these recent drafts we'll be gaining some of that lost asset value back and open ourselves up for some big "hockey deals" for other young players about to hit their prime ie saad, Hamilton.

The most contentious issue i see now is Benning and lindens insistence on having some transitional guys around, and just who exactly those players are.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

How on earth do you wish we're a bottom 5 team? How does someone actively want their team to lose? My word. Give your head a shake.

So you're sad because this team is the same as one that got 105 pts last year?

While I don't actively want the Canucks to lose, it's easy to understand the mentality. The Sedin era is over. We have no one close to replacing them, meaning we have to suck in order to get them. It's either suck now or suck later, but it's inevitable. I'll say this much, I would much prefer we trade Hamhuis and Vrbata for 1sts than chase a hopeless run at the playoffs, where getting utterly decimated by Anaheim awaits.

For the most part i agree, but I see Dallas and Edmonton both in that upper tier because they both made some significant improvements during the offseason(plus for Edm, all their players are a year older and should take a step forward).

*to clarify, I mean the same tier as San Jose etc. Not playoff locks.

You could probably bring San Jose down, though my reasons for Dallas and Edmonton potentially struggling is their defense. Both remain a question mark, especially Dallas'. It's a lot harder to outscore your problems nowadays.

 

[racerjoe]

Rieder - Chipchura - Doan
Erat - Arcobello - Moss
Cunningham - Gagner - McGinn
Szwarz - Vitale - Crombeen

This was Arizona's closing roster last year ...

I don't think we are a bottom five team, unless we lose Vrbata and H. Sedin to injury and Miller and Markstrom both meltdown.

I can see both those things happening, however.

I think we are a worse team than 2014 on paper, so all it takes is an injury to Hank.

 

[LiveeviL]

Healthy top 6 (5 really) and Tanev - Edler then Playoffs with a first round exit. The team got good players but the depth is not really there. That is very much a consequence of doing well during the season for years and getting bad draft#.

 

[ginner classic]

"Vancouver
In: Mark Bartkowski, Brandon Prust
Out: Zack Kassian, Eddie Lack, Shawn Matthias, Brad Richardson, Kevin Bieksa
1.92 wins lost
There’s a key theme here among the offseason losers and it’s “what are you doing?” Here’s what the Canucks did. They traded a decent player and a draft pick for a worse player who costs more. Their only signing was a below-replacement level defensemen. They traded their popular goalie who stole the starting job for magic beans (again). And they let go one of their most efficient scorers on a per-minute basis who was one of the few assets left from one of their star goalie-for-magic beans trades. All those shenanigans means the Canucks lost about two wins in talent this offseason which is probably enough to push them out of the playoffs."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/w...d-worst-off-seasons-according-to-the-numbers/

 

[Ho Borvat]

"Vancouver
In: Mark Bartkowski, Brandon Prust
Out: Zack Kassian, Eddie Lack, Shawn Matthias, Brad Richardson, Kevin Bieksa
1.92 wins lost
There’s a key theme here among the offseason losers and it’s “what are you doing?†Here’s what the Canucks did. They traded a decent player and a draft pick for a worse player who costs more. Their only signing was a below-replacement level defensemen. They traded their popular goalie who stole the starting job for magic beans (again). And they let go one of their most efficient scorers on a per-minute basis who was one of the few assets left from one of their star goalie-for-magic beans trades. All those shenanigans means the Canucks lost about two wins in talent this offseason which is probably enough to push them out of the playoffs."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/w...d-worst-off-seasons-according-to-the-numbers/

They aren't wrong...

 

[Jyrki21]

Wow, nice to see Big Media finally acknowledging that Benning is not a "nice guy savior" and actually examine what he's doing.

 

[Proto]

The Canucks also over-achieved last year, so I'd expect them to miss the playoffs by 6-10 points. I just hope they're far enough out that they sell assets instead of holding on to them under some insane delusion of competing.

 

[valkynax]

Lottery team would be the best case scenario.

What I fear is that we'll be stuck with something along the lines of #17 pick for the next half a decade because we keep pretending to be a half @$$ cup contender team like the old Flames.

Sadly enough based on what I see so far that seems to be the most likely outcome.

 

[Amused To Death]

The Canucks also over-achieved last year, so I'd expect them to miss the playoffs by 6-10 points. I just hope they're far enough out that they sell assets instead of holding on to them under some insane delusion of competing.

Aquilini reportedly blocked a Kesler trade at the deadline in 2014, when we sucked...it can happen again, unfortunately.

 

[ginner classic]

They aren't wrong...

I think they understate the games won and games lost estimate. I can see just those moves reducing goals for by 20 and increasing goals against by 20. That makes us a -20 and puts us squarely in the 85-95 point range, or spots 6-10 in the lottery. That's like 7 wins.

 

[mathonwy]

"Vancouver
In: Mark Bartkowski, Brandon Prust
Out: Zack Kassian, Eddie Lack, Shawn Matthias, Brad Richardson, Kevin Bieksa
1.92 wins lost
There’s a key theme here among the offseason losers and it’s “what are you doing?†Here’s what the Canucks did. They traded a decent player and a draft pick for a worse player who costs more. Their only signing was a below-replacement level defensemen. They traded their popular goalie who stole the starting job for magic beans (again). And they let go one of their most efficient scorers on a per-minute basis who was one of the few assets left from one of their star goalie-for-magic beans trades. All those shenanigans means the Canucks lost about two wins in talent this offseason which is probably enough to push them out of the playoffs."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/w...d-worst-off-seasons-according-to-the-numbers/

It pleases me to see the Ducks below us.

 

[thepuckmonster]

It pleases me to see the Ducks below us.

I don't really know if that really validates THN. I mean, I wish it were true but let's be honest here. Lol

 

[me2]

I don't really know if that really validates THN. I mean, I wish it were true but let's be honest here. Lol

It is a questionable methodology given it doesn't seem to account for youth getting better or prospects coming in (unless they are a big name).

 

[Butcher]

Healthy top 6 (5 really) and Tanev - Edler then Playoffs with a first round exit. The team got good players but the depth is not really there. That is very much a consequence of doing well during the season for years and getting bad draft#.

More than ever a healthy team is required in order to make the playoffs. With few injuries I can see a bubble team or repeat performance from this year (though the latter also depends on player development).

The only position there is depth, as it stands, is on the wings.

Centre depth is Henrik, Bonino, Horvat, Vey then Burrows or Prust sliding over to centre? Or career AHLer Jones and first year pro Cassels?

Even with carrying eight defencemen, the defence looks to be three top four defenders and five who should be in the 5/6/7 position, barring major steps forward this year. If nobody steps up, an injury to Edler, Hamhuis or Tanev makes for a scary looking defence core. Gone are the days of carrying five top four defence to account for the inevitable injuries.

In goal there is a basically league average and potentially declining Miller backed up by an unproven at the NHL level Markstrom. First call up is Bachman, who Willie D may only be willing to start on the tail end of back to backs, depending on who the injured goalie is and whether or not Markstom proves to be NHL calibre this year.

Playoffs are possible (whether that is the best thing for the team going forward is another question), but one injury at centre, on defence or in goal could derail things very quickly. As could Markstrom not panning out at the NHL level again.

 

[Hammer79]

I don't really know if that really validates THN. I mean, I wish it were true but let's be honest here. Lol

Even if it was, the Ducks lose 4 points but still win the division. If the Canucks drop 4 points they are still a playoff team at 97. I find WAR to be a questionable method for predicting hockey. WAR works a lot better for baseball, a game which is much more predictable with advanced stats.

Also, the write-ups in the article are ridiculous, supposedly Kassian was a decent player for us? Did the author watch the team? Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in this.

 

[Wisp]

Also, the write-ups in the article are ridiculous, supposedly Kassian was a decent player for us? Did the author watch the team? Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in this.

Don't mistake 'disappointing' for bad. He wasn't the next Bertuzzi, but his possession stats indicate he was a solid middle-six tweeter for us. Prust won't be able to replace that on ice impact.

This is a management group that vastly overthought the asset they had. When all was said and done he was worth his contract.

 

[Hardyvan123]

The Canucks also over-achieved last year, so I'd expect them to miss the playoffs by 6-10 points. I just hope they're far enough out that they sell assets instead of holding on to them under some insane delusion of competing.

pretty much this and this would help make them a lottery team.

more importantly 2 things need to happen before things get better and not worse long term.

They need to acquire some top end talent next year in the draft, ie some additional 1st and 2nd round picks and some of their younger players need a really good growth year to push out some of the dead wood on the main roster and create a new core here.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I don't really know if that really validates THN. I mean, I wish it were true but let's be honest here. Lol

Yeah. That struck me as rather odd. Anaheim had a solid off season, acquiring Hagelin, Bieksa and Stewart while giving up very little to do so.

 

[Grazzy]

Canucks are among the toughest teams to call, quite a few wildcards.

Is miller a top 15 goalie?
Are the Sedins 70 point players?
Is Vrbata a 30 goal scorer
Will the youth improve/step up (Horvat/Baertschi)

If you answered yes to all those questions, they're probably a playoff team. Personally, I think 2 out of those 4 won't happen (hoping it's the former) and they'll be in the 20th-17th range.

 

[ginner classic]

It does not matter how many times I look at that roster, I see a bottom 10 finish if healthy and bottom 5 if not.

 

[Huggy]

Sedins vrbata
bae horvat hansen

kenins bonino virtanen
prust burrows dorsett

do want burrows at center

 

[biturbo19]

Right now, in the "way too early" stages of the summer, i'd break the West down something like:

Playoff Locks:
-Chicago.
-Anaheim.
-Minnesota.
-St.Louis.

After that, it's basically a huge Royal Rumble that could shake out in pretty much any order:

Los Angeles - hard to imagine they finish as poorly as last year, but they're also still down a crucial top-4D and losing a bunch of significant players, others aging like ours, Center depth sort of whittled away...adding Lucic is going to be interesting to see which version they get - rarely have we seen scoring for a player "improve" under Sutter.

Winnipeg - seem to be a team on the rise, really strong defence and a lot of good young players, but unreliable goaltending and i think it remains to be seen how much of an impact Ehlers can have as a rookie (if he sticks). Haven't done a ton else to make themselves significantly better or worse really. Not a true juggernaut.

Dallas - still have the offensive dynamo thing going for them, even more so now, bolstered goaltending in a big way and the young defence will all be a year older and wiser, still a potential achilles heel though for sure.

Calgary - in tough to replicate last season's surprise results, adding Hamilton is obviously big, a potential full year of Bennett helps as well, not losing Giordano would be big...but then, i think these big adds probably help to compensate for some luck last year to pretty much a net-neutral.

Nashville - had a great bounce-back season last year, but the way they tailed off hard late in the year has to be concerning. One of the deepest defences in the league, but counting on replicating a lot of "break out years" offensively and a linchpin as unreliable as Ribeiro. Bit of a paper tiger.

Colorado - much improved defence which has always held them back...but expect a downgrade offensively. Iggy is a year older and he was already ancient, O'Reilly is gone, Tanguay is also ancient. Soderberg is...okay, but still a clear downgrade from O'Reilly. A lot of "potential", but still not a juggernaut looking team.

San Jose - doubt they implode like last year...but who knows, lateral looking moves in net unless Jones really breaks out, pretty much lateral moves across the board and clearly something is foul in their "locker room culture" the way things ended last year, kind of an unpredictable team as there's a ton of talent there to be much better.

And i'd put the Canucks anywhere right in and around that mix.

And then there are the "Bad Teams":

Arizona - obvious, they're the frontrunners in the Matthews sweepstakes, just a very terrible roster that showed how terrible it was down the stretch last year winning...basically never.

Edmonton - McDavid and all, their defense is still very poor. They're counting on huge years from Sekera as a #1D, and someone line Reinhart stepping straight in as an impact top-4D to really turn things around on the blueline. They still have no "top pairing". And that's not to even touch their overall team defence and the strides needed there. Don't expect that to be an overnight turnaround.


I think the West is a stacked conference in that there are really only those two "weak looking teams" this season. Every night is going to be a dogfight for position among the rest. But at the same time, among that big lump of "playoff contender" teams, there isn't a one among them that i don't think the Canucks can hang with on any given night.

It's not so much that the West is full of unbeatable Juggernaut teams, so much as the parity is just incredibly strong and set very high at essentially a "playoff team" level. Meaning...whichever way it shakes out, 5th in the West may not be that far removed from 3rd last in the West...and playoff-worthy teams are probably going to miss the playoffs again.

Key to a playoff berth is probably going to be making sure you run the table on the bottom-feeder East teams, and schedule-wise, just operating like last year...throw your best game at the most "winnable" outings, and shaking off any blowouts that happen in the "throwaway" games. And most importantly...the luck of staying healthy.

Most injured teams among those contenders are probably going to miss out in the end.

 

[arsmaster*]

Also, the write-ups in the article are ridiculous, supposedly Kassian was a decent player for us? Did the author watch the team? Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in this.

10 goals, 3 of them game winners.

Amazing when 10 goals in half a season is bad, but 15 over the full season from our #2C with oodles of PP time is acceptable.