Post-Game Talk: Disaster

[weems]

Our goalies have been trash for awhile now theres no debating that but we also rank #2 in the NHL in 5v5 defensive zone giveaways and only Montreal ranks worse.

This is also with having an offense that generates more Ozone posession time than basically any other team in the league.

Just for comparison's sake.

Leafs have 394 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5
TB have 195 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5

Our goalies definitely need to start playing better if we have any chance to win a few rounds let alone a cup but we also need to stop turning the puck over in our own zone so much.

 

[DarkKnight]

Certainly feels like we've been getting league worst goaltending or close to it for the last month and a half.

I doesn’t just feel like, the stats back it up and it’s been longer than that.

 

[ToneDog]

Our goalies have been trash for awhile now theres no debating that but we also rank #2 in the NHL in 5v5 defensive zone giveaways and only Montreal ranks worse.

This is also with having an offense that generates more Ozone posession time than basically any other team in the league.

Just for comparison's sake.

Leafs have 394 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5
TB have 195 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5

Our goalies definitely need to start playing better if we have any chance to win a few rounds let alone a cup but we also need to stop turning the puck over in our own zone so much.

Now that pretty much paints the picture. To me it shows that others posting stats indicating our D is not the problem are wrong and it is not all on our G.

 

[Sypher04]

Oh it’s definitely both things. D and goaltending. Our defensive issues are being magnified right now by Muzzin’s absence. Not that he was having a very good year himself, but as good as Liljegren and Sandin had been and have been for us over the course of the year, neither one is a top 4 D right now and our situation is forcing us to play them in less than optimal positions for their current experience level/capabilities.

They should be playing 3rd pair minutes against third part comps but are way over their head currently which is why we’ve seen a marked down turn in both their in zone play lately.

The leafs need Muzzin back and another top 4 D who is better than current Muzzin to carry the 2nd pairing

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Leafs continue to play down to their level of competition and it has to be concerning to management and fans alike,

Been that way for years.

Surely some advanced stats could show that. I bet skating metrics would show it (which I believe are collected but not publicly available)

 

[123offtheglass]

Now that pretty much paints the picture. To me it shows that others posting stats indicating our D is not the problem are wrong and it is not all on our G.

More than just specifically our goaltenders & defensemen, it's team defense. You can add the 2nd & 4th line to that mix quite easily.

 

[Fogelhund]

Are you on mobile browser?

It doesnt' show the ticker on mobile browser but it does on desktop

Thanks, yes, I was on the mobile browser. It doesn't now that I'm on my desktop. That's kind of a broken thing, kind of like our team at the moment.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

You can have the 1976 defence of the Montreal Canadiens and our goalies would still be allowing life-sucking goals against. You can't expect the greatest defence in history to prevent goals like the first two in the Arizona game, that sieve-like third goal yesterday, or the first goal in game 7 of last years playoffs. No question the defence is pretty bad, but unless we get better goaltending it won't make much of difference in winning a round in the playoffs getting one top4 dman at the TDL.

 

[therealkoho]

2.84

.916

33 starts, maybe we should see if we can get this guy

 

[DcW]

Will be interesting to see management’s reaction if 34 gets suspended. Do they defend their MVP with takes on how he doesn’t get calls etc or do they “league’s decision and we except it”. Let’s see the tone management sets

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Our goalies have been trash for awhile now theres no debating that but we also rank #2 in the NHL in 5v5 defensive zone giveaways and only Montreal ranks worse.

This is also with having an offense that generates more Ozone posession time than basically any other team in the league.

Just for comparison's sake.

Leafs have 394 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5
TB have 195 Defensive zone giveaways 5v5

Our goalies definitely need to start playing better if we have any chance to win a few rounds let alone a cup but we also need to stop turning the puck over in our own zone so much.

Our D don't handle pressure well. The book is out, come in with a heavy forecheck and walk away with the puck. It also seems like if the puck enters the zone against the second line it isn't coming out bearing a whistle or a goal. Factor all that in and those numbers start to make a lot of sense.

 

[wingman75]

Will be interesting to see management’s reaction if 34 gets suspended. Do they defend their MVP with takes on how he doesn’t get calls etc or do they “league’s decision and we except it”. Let’s see the tone management sets

Both could be (and probably are) true.

Cannot let 34 get away scott free with that play, imagine someone did that to Rielly. It could be a fine or a couple games, I don't expect it to make sense, since the NHL DOPS is poorly run.

On the flip side, the team could sure comment on the lack of calls... it is a joke and the league should be called out publically for it.

 

[GoonieFace]

I see tinfoil hats were a big seller for people on this board

 

[Niagara Bill]

Not a baseball guy, so easy on the belittling commentary.

And it still doesn't make sense.

Sorry global mod...not sure what you do not understand about some toughness on a team. All good teams have it, the Leafs lack it, Keefe appears to coach against it,.
To not have 1 person take exception to what was done to the best player in the league, even after he stood up for himself is inexcusable on any TEAM. This team through away Marchment and tries to develop losers like HoSang. They keep 6'5" soft players like Engval and Micky over March entirely.
So at this point I give up SIR, and to explain, baseball is a sport where team toughness is not required, but even the best bb teams need to throw high and tight some times. But you not being a baseball guy wouldn't know that.

 

[CuuuJooo]

If we put Tavares on LTIR, I'd be tempted not to reactivate him until 2024...

To Robidas Island!

Can Tavares be bought out in the off-season and then re-signed for less? Serious question. I’ve got nothing against the guy at $4 million per. His current deal is insane (and always was).

 

[VanW27]

Nobody cares about a game in March, but this embarrassment of late might be best long term. Dubas has to act now, the situation is so bad there’s no way he can pretend otherwise, big picture, Mrazuck’s performance has solidified reality. We ain’t winning shit with this tandem, there’s nowhere to hide anymore.

I have the opposite thought.

Don't act now, nothing you can reasonably accomplish right now is going to fix this team. Obviously futures for rental should be off the table and big player for player trades are much better done in the offseason.

Take a look at what you have and who won't be back and look at moving those pieces out.

Mikheyev - UFA, already asked for a trade, won't be back next year
Engvall/Kase - RFAs, I think both are useful at 1.25, but if they are looking for a raise move on from them
Lybushkin - UFA, personally I'd check on his ask, if its reasonable sign him and move Holl, if not move him at the deadline.

A couple other smaller deals if there's interest around the league, Kampf, Simmonds, see if Spezza wants a last shot with a contender, and if someone is dumb enough to take Muzzin off your hands do it.

Sink or swim for the core, if they lose in the 1st round again it's time to blow it up. If they go on a playoff run then you reassess, rebuild the bottom of you're lineup/defense and goaltending in the offseason.

 

[VanW27]

To Robidas Island!

Can Tavares be bought out in the off-season and then re-signed for less? Serious question. I’ve got nothing against the guy at $4 million per. His current deal is insane (and always was).

No, a buyout would cost the Leafs a dead cap of:

10.4
10.4
10.4
.3
.3
.3

Over the next 6 years, instead of just 11 for the next 3 years having him on the roster.

 

[CuuuJooo]

No, a buyout would cost the Leafs a dead cap of:

10.4
10.4
10.4
.3
.3
.3

Over the next 6 years, instead of just 11 for the next 3 years having him on the roster.

Well, poop.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Some people need to step back and look at the roster and the good things the Leafs actually do, 5th place in the entire NHL and still winning games with under .900 goaltending since December. The fact they are still winning games with that alone is impressive, most teams would not win with such poor goaltending.

Are the Leafs perfect? no, and do they need couple players to take it to the next level? yes. A top 4 d-man would go a long way with this team, but that can be acquired at the deadline, but the amount of bad routine saves that have gone past our goalies has been mind boggling. A majority of the bad goals should be saved by a goaltending giving us average goaltending.

I think the biggest need/change on the defense is more players that can take away the body and sticks to prevent more tip ins and screens. Too many puck movers like Sandin/Lilly/Dermott in the lineup at the same time right now.

A lot of this, they’ve gotten no help from the goalie position for three plus months now, most teams with 880-890 goaltending would be fighting for the right to pick 1st overall, this team is legit battling (losing that battle right now mind you) the twice defending cup champs for home ice in an playoff series against them.
This is obviously a flawed team, but in a hard & flat cap every team has flaws… this is Gerry B’s NHL.
I just want to see this team fully healthy with muzzin playing to his capacity and middle class 910-915 goaltending for a stretch, preferably in may.

 

[notbias]

You can diddle around in the microscopic detritus to find bits to tarnish Lou with, or you can rise up and look at the big picture of the man's effectiveness and success at building competitive hockey teams.

Seriously. Could Leafs post-season record be any worse with Lou in charge?

it was the same with Lou, and Islanders don't look to be doing well with Lou right now.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I've said this to myself for a long time. Now NYI are having a rough year but Trotz turned that team around in his first year. Look what Sutter is doing. Old school coach with a defence first attitude. What about Gerrard Gallant? Brindamour is an old school guy and Carolina has been a very good team since he was in there. I'm tired that Leaf Land thinks they know better. This doesn;t work, money ball or money puck, whatever you want to call it doesn't work. You need grit on a team, guys that can clear the net. You need some guys that can cause you know what on the ice. We have none of this

I'll say this and let all the young posters jump on me here. If we would have hired Lou with Hunter as an assistant we would have a cup right now. Lou has no problem turning over coaches, he did it in Jersey and won cups. Keefe is over his head and the GM does not understand how to build a cup team.

The problem my friend is that Dubas and the "advanced stats" crew can't quantify grit on a spreadsheet, so it doesn't exist in their minds.

 

[Sypher04]

The problem my friend is that Dubas and the "advanced stats" crew can't quantify grit on a spreadsheet, so it doesn't exist in their minds.

Certainly doesn’t seem like that is true at all... but assuming you were correct, why exactly did the Leafs acquire Muzzin or Simmonds or Lyubushkin or Bogosian then? Because it sure as shit wasn’t analytics

 

[Shooter2x]

The problem my friend is that Dubas and the "advanced stats" crew can't quantify grit on a spreadsheet, so it doesn't exist in their minds.

Advanced stats don't even translate to the playoffs lol. That's the fine print nobody is reading. Check the CF and xGF of some of the past cup winners. A lot of the game cannot be captured in advanced stats. Advanced stats are an aid for teams to use behind the scenes when you need information on demand. Somehow they've become currency around here. Any logical statement that makes perfect sense is contradicted by copying and pasting a stat You don't even need to speak. Paste the stat and carry on.

People think Engvall and Miks straight line spin back high xGF will translate to the playoffs? Good luck with that. Look at the league. There is no parity. This is a 10 team league with 22 other teams waiting to get their own hands on a Marner or Kaprizov or Huberdeau etc. You really think it's that difficult for the top 1/3 teams to put up good advanced stats in the regular season? It's not. Playoffs exposes whose the pretenders and whose the real deal.

Leafs don't have "it" for the playoffs. We will require generational level play in all 4 rounds from both matthews and marner and at least one other player if we stand a chance to overcome how soft we are and how sloppy our D has become 5v5 and whatever old or average goalie they find for the playoffs. That is a ridiculous way to build a team.


*my use of the word translate means that their power to predict how a 82 game season goes loses all relevance in the playoffs. It doesn't mean mik and engvall or the team cant have a high xGF in the playoffs. The predictive power is lost in 7 game series, that's where the "it" comes in.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Advanced stats don't even translate to the playoffs lol. That's the fine print nobody is reading. Check the CF and xGF of some of the past cup winners. A lot of the game cannot be captured in advanced stats. Advanced stats are an aid for teams to use behind the scenes when you need information on demand. Somehow they've become currency around here. Any logical statement that makes perfect sense is contradicted by copying and pasting a stat You don't even need to speak. Paste the stat and carry on.

People think Engvall and Miks straight line spin back high xGF will translate to the playoffs? Good luck with that. Look at the league. There is no parity. This is a 10 team league with 22 other teams waiting to get their own hands on a Marner or Kaprizov or Huberdeau etc. You really think it's that difficult for the top 1/3 teams to put up good advanced stats in the regular season? It's not. Playoffs exposes whose the pretenders and whose the real deal.

Leafs don't have "it" for the playoffs. We will require generational level play in all 4 rounds from both matthews and marner and at least one other player if we stand a chance to overcome how soft we are and how sloppy our D has become 5v5 and whatever old or average goalie they find for the playoffs. That is a ridiculous way to build a team.

You'll get no argument from me at all. Great points.

 

[Magic Man]

I liked Matthews and Bunting late in the game. Matthews layed a bit hit and then went in and battled with Dahlin cross checking him in the face. Bunting responded well on both plays involving Matthews. He had a good response to the Cozens hit.

That top line has been pretty physical as a threesome the past couple games. Good to see a response from the top guys.