Speculation: Did Montreal Hire an Analytics Guy?

[dmanfish90]

I am speculating (BIG TIME) that it is Andrew Berkshire of HabsEOTP. He just quit as Co-Managing partner of HabsEOTP and is working for an analytics company now that could be hired as a consultant for the Habs. It would be strange for the guy to get a new job and quit blogging about the Habs...unless he may be working for them.

Absolute pure speculation thought. See his twitter profile to see if my story may make sense...

 

[WeThreeKings]

I am speculating (BIG TIME) that it is Andrew Berkshire of HabsEOTP. He just quit as Co-Managing partner of HabsEOTP and is working for an analytics company now that could be hired as a consultant for the Habs. It would be strange for the guy to get a new job and quit blogging about the Habs...unless he may be working for them.

Absolute pure speculation thought. See his twitter profile to see if my story may make sense...

I would hope not. Berkshire is the worst.

 

[Shutdown]

I am speculating (BIG TIME) that it is Andrew Berkshire of HabsEOTP. He just quit as Co-Managing partner of HabsEOTP and is working for an analytics company now that could be hired as a consultant for the Habs. It would be strange for the guy to get a new job and quit blogging about the Habs...unless he may be working for them.

Absolute pure speculation thought. See his twitter profile to see if my story may make sense...

Except Berkshire already said where he was going, and it's not the Habs. Also Engels reported who it was the Habs hired.

 

[hersky77]

I am speculating (BIG TIME) that it is Andrew Berkshire of HabsEOTP. He just quit as Co-Managing partner of HabsEOTP and is working for an analytics company now that could be hired as a consultant for the Habs. It would be strange for the guy to get a new job and quit blogging about the Habs...unless he may be working for them.

Absolute pure speculation thought. See his twitter profile to see if my story may make sense...

If it's Berkshire, then it's a huge mistake. One of the least knowledgeable hockey guys out there

 

[The Nightman]

People seem to have missed the tweet, it's not jerkshire

 

[diskkkk]

I suggest reading some of his articles at:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/author/mpfeffer/

like

Exploring the theoretical limits of shot quality

this young man is brilliant.

Indeed. That article was great. Thx, and I hope his voice is heard.

(Couldn't help but notice Semin is one of the highest skilled shooter in the actual/expected sh% chart hehe. Get it done Matt!)

 

[Cole Caulifield]

I suggest reading some of his articles at:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/author/mpfeffer/

like

Exploring the theoretical limits of shot quality

this young man is brilliant.

TLDR : Shot quality exists despite what everyone in the advanced stats community has been saying. The chance to score on a given shot is affected by quite a few factors amongst which are :

-Rebounds
-Distance of shot
-Strength (5v5, 4v5, 3v5, 4v4, 3v3, etc).
-Win probability (score effect mixed with a time element)
-Post faceoff (by a negative factor if following a faceoff)
-Shot type (backhand, tip in, deflected, slap, snap, wrist, wrap around)

EDIT:

BTW, those are only a few factors that go into shot quality (those which can be computed from the NHL's data). An article was posted a few months back about shot quality based on goalie reaction time and how much they had to move before facing a shot which encompassed some of the above factors. I found it to be an even better indicator of shot quality based purely on instinct.

 

[dmanfish90]

Except Berkshire already said where he was going, and it's not the Habs. Also Engels reported who it was the Habs hired.

What does that mean? And do you think Berkshire would report that he was going to the Habs. My theory is highly circumstantial but I don't understand all the hate (from other posters, not you)?

The guy knows analytics pretty well. And they did hire an "analytics guy". So i just thought it could be plausible.

Again, pure speculation.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Berkshire is an ass who thinks he is all that because he just busts out some numbers without understanding them fully.

 

[Andy]

Berkshire is an ass who thinks he is all that because he just busts out some numbers without understanding them fully.

I think Berkshire understands them very well, even though he is often biased in how he reads them. Conversely, I'm not sure if many of his detractors understand the implications of some of the numbers he compiles and provides.

 

[DAChampion]

I find Berkshire to be embarassingly dumb.

 

[CanadienShark]

Most of these guys have a Master's degree in Mathematics/Statistics/Economics.

My dream is to get into the NHL. I've never considered it a realistic option until very recently. I'm an economics student (going into 4th year) who has only very recently developed a huge interest in math and stats. This is exactly the kind of post I needed to see to get me excited.

I just need to finally start working hard. I'm like the Kovalev (OK not that good...) of school.

 

[Andy]

I find Berkshire to be embarassingly dumb.

He's embarrassingly biased, arrogant and pig-headed. He should stick to compiling data and let someone else interpret them.

 

[CanadienShark]

Apparently he's also done work for the Sharks and Team Canada.

This guy is a year older than me, and living my dream life.

 

[McClane]

Are there any success stories of teams succeeding by using all these numbers, or is it just a way to have fun with all the stats North American sports like to collect?

 

[Bloumeister]

This guy is a year older than me, and living my dream life.

I know the feeling. I was in the running for that job. Thought I had it. Don't understand what happened. My portfolio was solid. I mean, look at these examples:

My evaluation of DSP:

Even went as far as to work with Da Man himself, Michel Therrien:

Pretty telling, I'd say.

 

[CanadienShark]

I know the feeling. I was in the running for that job. Thought I had it. Don't understand what happened. My portfolio was solid. I mean, look at these examples:

My evaluation of DSP:

Even went as far as to work with Da Man himself, Michel Therrien:

Pretty telling, I'd say.

Too well played. Thanks for ******** on my dream.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Are there any success stories of teams succeeding by using all these numbers, or is it just a way to have fun with all the stats North American sports like to collect?

It's hard to know how effective it is because so much of the analysis is behind the scenes and not for public consumption. The analytics that we do have correlates well with cup winners but it's more of a team stat.

When it comes to measuring individual players it doesn't jive as much with the eyetest (in my opinion.) I think that's due to the fact that there are so many variables (usage/linemates/teams) so based on what I've seen I think they have more value when looking at team play.

It's going to be interesting watching more stats emerge as the NHL tracks the players using this new technology they're introducing.

 

[FerrisRox]

Going to work this morning I heard them talking on TSN 690 that someone(wish I remember who), that they said is reliable, had posted in his blog that the Habs had locked up some top notch analytics person. Did anyone hear it as well? Any idea who it is they hired if true?

I remember at the draft TSN690 interviewed the guy that used to post stats here ( think his name was Boucher) and he said he was meeting with a few teams interested in his work, perhaps it is him?

Even if they did, it's hardly news. It's not like the Canadiens didn't already have an Analytics department.

I found it hilarious last year when so much was made of Brendan Shanahan building an Analytics Department as if the Maple Leafs were on the cutting edge of hockey front offices, meanwhile way more teams than didn't already had a staffer or staffers or multiple consultants in this role already.

 

[groovejuice]

I know the feeling. I was in the running for that job. Thought I had it. Don't understand what happened. My portfolio was solid. I mean, look at these examples:

My evaluation of DSP:

Even went as far as to work with Da Man himself, Michel Therrien:

Pretty telling, I'd say.

The best ever, Blou. The best ever.

 

[McClane]

It's hard to know how effective it is because so much of the analysis is behind the scenes and not for public consumption. The analytics that we do have correlates well with cup winners but it's more of a team stat.

When it comes to measuring individual players it doesn't jive as much with the eyetest (in my opinion.) I think that's due to the fact that there are so many variables (usage/linemates/teams) so based on what I've seen I think they have more value when looking at team play.

It's going to be interesting watching more stats emerge as the NHL tracks the players using this new technology they're introducing.

Thank you. I ask because I'm new to hockey and was wondering if all these numbers really have an impact on the way the game is understood an played.

I grew up with football (soccer) and, while that's a sport without a statistics culture, some attempts have been made in the past. But they all fail when you remove the context. Scores matter based on timing; a player might show less production if he's moved to a spot to accommodate a teammate and improve the overall team production; teams might just give away possession as part of their strategy, etc. Some of these things cannot be reflected with meaningful stats.

I do enjoy reading the threads about analytics here, though.

 

[Fozz]

I expect all teams to go this route and hire a stats consultant (by the way, Pfeffer has consulted for several pro hockey teams), simply because they want another set of stats to use with those they already compile. A different approach, if you will.

Make no mistake about it, NHL teams are leagues ahead of the limited Corsi-Fenwick craze of the last few years and have been for a very long time.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Berkshire is a fat joke.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

The Pfeffer guy and I have the same alma mater, so you know he's a quality guy .

 

[Dominator13]

I agree with everybody here about Berkshire. The way he goes on about basically everything is the reason why analytics have so many detractors in the Montreal area. When he brought the numbers he maid everything look so black and white that he was just looking for people to jab him at 1st site. He bashed Bergevin like crazy after the Diaz for Weise thread cause Diaz had better corsi numbers. He just throws out numbers without using any hockey context around it. The problem is that he has his group of buddies that support that kind of nonsense. They're basically a group that's never hold a hockey stick all together.

Analytics will become "a thing" when players start using them in the right way. There's some type of players that are prone to average advanced statistics and still be of great value to a team.