GDT: Devils vs. Islanders - Groundhog Day - 7:00 PM - MSG

[haak84]

That heat map shows a majority of their chances came from in tight and ours were from the perimeter.

 

[mtnet]

funnily enough, yesterday was the worst i've ever felt after a game this season. mostly bc of schneids streak

Same here, I usually get bothered by most other no shows only during the game. This one stuck with me a while after because I'd really like to see the guy get this big monkey off his back for a change.

 

[haak84]

I mean Cory played great and the devils outplayed the islanders. I think their defensive system allowed them to win the game. We didn’t capitalize on our opportunities but the isles had a big impact on that. Oh well it’s a lost season but if we’re going to get Cory points, they might as well be a win.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Talbot's save percentage pre and post Larsson is probably a greater disparity than Cory pre and post 2016-2017.

Talbot had one good year there after Larsson and it was a VERY good year, as I give a .917% goalie that plays 73 games MUCH more credit than a .920+% goalie that plays 50-60 games in a year.

Since then it's been pathetic.

Exactly One bad defensive play can make a .920 goaltender 23SV/25SA into a .880 22/25 goaltender - right at the 2.00 -> 3.00 GAA mark.

That is what I call a stupid statistic.

When one Severson pass into Stafford's skates, or one Butcher misread and overplay and failure to cut the pass, or a change by a forward covering for a Dman that leaves Gryba back alone against Barzal on the wrong side of the ice makes a 'Good' goaltender into a 'Bad' goaltender... then your SV% argument is a house of cards built upon sand.

 

[Bleedred]

Exactly One bad defensive play can make a .920 goaltender 23SV/25SA into a .880 22/25 goaltender - right at the 2.00 -> 3.00 GAA mark.

That is what I call a stupid statistic.

When one Severson pass into Stafford's skates, or one Butcher misread and overplay and failure to cut the pass, or a change by a forward covering for a Dman that leaves Gryba back alone against Barzal on the wrong side of the ice makes a 'Good' goaltender into a 'Bad' goaltender... then your SV% argument is a house of cards built upon sand.

But as I've said, these things should even themselves out over time. Single game save percentage doesn't mean a whole lot.

For instance, Linus Ullmark allowed 6 goals on 30 shots last night. Not one of them was one he should have had. But from what I've seen, he's been pretty mediocre this year on the whole, so last night's game knocks his season save percentage from .914% to .909%, which is probably closer to what it should be. League average.

You know what else makes your save percentage drop from .920% to .880% over a single game? Exactly one weak ass goal. The variety we've seen far too often from Kinkaid and Schneider (last night not included) this year.

 

[billingtons ghost]

But as I've said, these things should even themselves out over time. Single game save percentage doesn't mean a whole lot.

For instance, Linus Ullmark allowed 6 goals on 30 shots last night. Not one of them was one he should have had. But from what I've seen, he's been pretty mediocre this year on the whole, so last night's game knocks his season save percentage from .914% to .909%, which is probably closer to what it should be. League average.

Over a career, I certainly agree. Over a season, or a set of 20 games or a set of 50 games, I do not - especially when the problems are teamwide, systematic, and you are also dealing with green defensemen game after game.

These aren't isolated incidents of bad defense. They are continual, pervasive and they have been game in and game out for well over 80 games now dating back to December of last year.

I can point to defensive breakdowns every game. Maybe a goalie can come up with a couple of game-saving stops by lunging across, or maybe he gets lucky with a post or two - but you cannot suffer this game after game else your own game will change and you're forced to cheat.

That's where we're at right now. Our goalies have to cheat back in the paint and are more susceptible to straight on shots and deflections because they are off their angle.

Maybe a great goalie can understand this and cheat just enough -if you're Hasek or Rinne or Vas etc - but eventually even guys like Quick get eaten up - and our guys aren't anywhere near that class of goaltender.

 

[Bleedred]

Over a career, I certainly agree. Over a season, or a set of 20 games or a set of 50 games, I do not - especially when the problems are teamwide, systematic, and you are also dealing with green defensemen game after game.

These aren't isolated incidents of bad defense. They are continual, pervasive and they have been game in and game out for well over 80 games now dating back to December of last year.

I can point to defensive breakdowns every game. Maybe a goalie can come up with a couple of game-saving stops by lunging across, or maybe he gets lucky with a post or two - but you cannot suffer this game after game else your own game will change and you're forced to cheat.

That's where we're at right now. Our goalies have to cheat back in the paint and are more susceptible to straight on shots and deflections because they are off their angle.

Maybe a great goalie can understand this and cheat just enough -if you're Hasek or Rinne or Vas etc - but eventually even guys like Quick get eaten up - and our guys aren't anywhere near that class of goaltender.

Well as I've cited with Cory, his set of games where he's had the poor save percentage spans over 100 now.

And that's one thing I agree with you on. Cory is absolutely not in the class of Rinne, Vasilevskiy or probably even Quick (although he definitely used to be at least as good, if not better than them pre-decline). And as I said for Kinkaid in the other thread, he's like if Scott Clemmensen had to play 40+ games for us again in 09-10, the year after he did it well the first time in 08-09 when Marty was injured. The same thing would have happened to Clemmensen if Marty had gotten injured again the next year and Clemmensen had to pull a repeat of 2008-2009. He probably would have fallen on his face, much like Kinkaid has this year.

 

[haak84]

Well as I've cited with Cory, his set of games where he's had the poor save percentage spans over 100 now.

And that's one thing I agree with you on. Cory is absolutely not in the class of Rinne, Vasilevskiy or probably even Quick (although he definitely used to be at least as good, if not better than them pre-decline). And as I said for Kinkaid in the other thread, he's like if Scott Clemmensen had to play 40+ games for us again in 09-10, the year after he did it well the first time in 08-09 when Marty was injured. The same thing would have happened to Clemmensen if Marty had gotten injured again the next year and Clemmensen had to pull a repeat of 2008-2009. He probably would have fallen on his face, much like Kinkaid has this year.

The clemmenson argument just isn’t the same. The devils team defense was much better and they were better coached. He also went to Florida and was a solid 1b Even if the devils had to rely on clemmenson the following season they still would have been a playoff team. Billingtons right— this has been happening since last December and no goalie is going to look good over 80 games with how this team plays. That includes a rookie who has made 11 nhl starts. Sorry.

 

[Bleedred]

The clemmenson argument just isn’t the same. The devils team defense was much better and they were better coached. He also went to Florida and was a solid 1b Even if the devils had to rely on clemmenson the following season they still would have been a playoff team. Billingtons right— this has been happening since last December and no goalie is going to look good over 80 games with how this team plays. That includes a rookie who has made 11 nhl starts. Sorry.

Clemmensen wasn't really a 1b with the Panthers. He played 23 games (20 starts), 30 games (25 starts) and 31 games (25 starts). A 25 start goalie is not a 1b, even a 30 game goalie is not really a 1b, as much as he's a higher used backup. He had 6 relief appearances in 30 overall appearances and 6 relief appearances in 31 overall appearances the next year. Even Kinkaid started 38 games last year and played in 41. That's a 1b. Clemmensen played 40 games and started 39 in 08-09, I'd say that qualifies as a 1b year. Clemmensen also had some really brutal and unplayable years later on with Florida, but I'd just consider that a decline.

Even if this team was good, do you really think Cory would be back to ,920%+ again? Or Kinkaid better than .905%-,910% (I'm talking as a starter/mostly starter, not as a backup, where he might be better than that)? Even Kinkaid did pretty well the last two years behind (mostly) the same team and same Hynes trash system. Only he was used as strictly a backup in 16-17 and had a random solid year (like 08-09 Clemmensen) last year. Cory had a really good year in 14-15 behind a team full of dinosaurs, poorly coached, if even coached at all and defensemen like Mark Fraser and Peter Harrold seeing significant icetime.

 

[haak84]

Clemmensen wasn't really a 1b with the Panthers. He played 23 games (20 starts), 30 games (25 starts) and 31 games (25 starts). A 25 start goalie is not a 1b, even a 30 game goalie is not really a 1b, as much as he's a higher used backup. He had 6 relief appearances in 30 overall appearances and 6 relief appearances in 31 overall appearances the next year. Even Kinkaid started 38 games last year and played in 41. That's a 1b. Clemmensen played 40 games and started 39 in 08-09, I'd say that qualifies as a 1b year. Clemmensen also had some really brutal and unplayable years later on with Florida, but I'd just consider that a decline.

Even if this team was good, do you really think Cory would be back to ,920%+ again? Or Kinkaid better than .905%-,910% (I'm talking as a starter/mostly starter, not as a backup, where he might be better than that)? Even Kinkaid did pretty well the last two years behind (mostly) the same team and same Hynes trash system. Only he was used as strictly a backup in 16-17 and had a random solid year (like 08-09 Clemmensen) last year. Cory had a really good year in 14-15 behind a team full of dinosaurs, poorly coached, if even coached at all and defensemen like Mark Fraser and Peter Harrold seeing significant icetime.

I thought Clemm had a bigger role but yeah guess he wasn’t a 1b. I still don’t think it’s similar situations and stand by that no goalie is going to look good in front of this team with how it’s devolved since December last year.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Even if this team was good, do you really think Cory would be back to ,920%+ again? Or Kinkaid better than .905%-,910% .

as I've cited before - I think SV% is drivel...

but yes, I think the evidence for that is named Robin Lehner. You put Kinkaid in the same Trotz defensive ecosystem and he's at .917 as well.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Cory had a really good year in 14-15 behind a team full of dinosaurs, poorly coached, if even coached at all and defensemen like Mark Fraser and Peter Harrold seeing significant icetime.

Individuals have nothing to do with it. Sometimes this board seems to think that you can take Colin White on paper and hold him up next to Vatanen and compare. You can't.

Colin White and Mike Motteau, no matter how laughable they may seem on paper, were a better defensive pairing than ANYTHING we've had in the last 80 games. By. Far.

Peter Harrold, within a defensive system that had veteran forwards backchecking is arguably superior to just about anything we have today in keeping pucks out of the net. That is RIDICULOUSLY sad.

Keep in mind that a guy like Scott Gomez, who was maligned defensively his entire career, is probably a better defensive forward (at least in understanding where he needs to be within a system) than more than half of our current crop of forwards - if only because DeBoer's system was sane and Gomez understood it and had enough veteran wiles to be in the right place at the right time.

This system makes Zajac and Coleman look bad... and I think that's tough to do. Guys like Wood, Stafford, Mojo, et al don't really need help to look bad, but this system makes them look terrible defensively.

 

[JK3]

Looks like we're done talking about the game, just more and more f***ing goaltender talk, you guys need an intervention.