Prospect Info: Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0, Post-Lottery Victory

[MichaelJ]

I think both Teply and Donovan have 2nd line upside at RW. Teply is a little better right now and Donovan has a higher ceiling -- kids mixing that combo of size/skating/shot do not exactly grow on trees.

RW2? Great, then either would eventually fit well next to Hischier

 

[Nubmer6]

Please no goalies before the sixth round unless Knight somehow falls to the top of the second round.

Weren't we thinking the same thing when we drafted Mac Black? Why do we need to pick a goalie in the 2nd round when we have Cory?

In retrospect, I'm kinda glad we did it

 

[My3Sons]

Here's Steve Kournianos (The Sporting News) take on Ryder Donovan:

Towering forward with excellent speed who can play a variety of roles and is both likable and coachable. Donovan is the top draft prospect among American high schoolers and for good reason — he’s as good a finisher and he is a set-up man. Although he doesn’t play a bruising, menacing style, Donovan’s explosiveness when coupled with his size surely must create an intimidating sight for opponents. He plays on the top line and top power-play unit, and his vision and finishing ability helps him do a lot of damage close to the goal. Donovan has incredibly soft hands and he cleanly handles most passes he receives in full flight. He also can drop down a gear and slow things down, only to stutter step or change directions once he sees a defender leaning the wrong way. Donovan is very intelligent and anticipates extremely well, so his penchant for staying on the periphery and not engaging in every puck battle serves to his advantage since it ends up on his stick regardless.
Donovan’s shot is slightly above average and he seems to favor the wrist shot, but he own an excellent backhander and can roof the puck from in tight. He doesn’t shoot off the pass as much as he should, but he’s calculated with his decisions and will stickhandle or fake his way closer to the goal. Donovan can manage the puck effectively in all three zones and be counted to on to support his defenders and take the puck across center on his own. He pays attention to his side of center and is fast enough to fill gaps, but you wouldn’t classify him as a two-way forward. Donovan puts forth a consistent effort every shift and has all the makings of an elite power forward at the next level. He’s committed to play college hockey for North Dakota.


And this, from Tom Dorsa of McKeen's Scouting:

There is a conversation to be had as to who is the best Draft-eligible player to come out of the United States high school ranks this year. While the answer to that question is far more complicated than just throwing out names, Ryder Donovan has one thing locked down: he is hands down the most complete and most versatile USHS skater to potentially be on a stage in Vancouver in June.
His skating is at a pro level, his shot is a fiery, perhaps even underused weapon, he is a very skilled player with a pure playmaker's passing acumen and has the motor and intelligence to put it all into one solid package.
With Wisconsin on the map for Donovan, playing in a highly-skilled, fast NCAA conference like the Big Ten will help him with his decision-making speed and his positioning and usefulness away from the puck.


In my estimation, the Devils have a need for wingers with size/strength and right-shooting wingers with scoring potential. I'm not saying that Donovan is a consideration at #34, but with five picks between #55 and #96, Donovan would certainly be worth consideration at those spots.

Sounds like description of how Wheeler plays the way I read those evaluations. That sounds pretty good.

 

[My3Sons]

Please no goalies before the sixth round unless Knight somehow falls to the top of the second round.

The Castron crew has very little invested in goalies. I count the MBW pick as a Conte pick. I will say that the Schmid pick looks solid considering he was picked 136. I know Clemmer was high on Schmid. Also despite the whole voodoo thing the best goalies from recent drafts have included at least several guys rated at or near the top of the goalie pool (MBW and Hart were both rated highly as are several of the RUS players yet to come over). The issue with goalies is probably more heart and brains than physical ability.

 

[Cheddabombs]

The Castron crew has very little invested in goalies. I count the MBW pick as a Conte pick. I will say that the Schmid pick looks solid considering he was picked 136. I know Clemmer was high on Schmid. Also despite the whole voodoo thing the best goalies from recent drafts have included at least several guys rated at or near the top of the goalie pool (MBW and Hart were both rated highly as are several of the RUS players yet to come over). The issue with goalies is probably more heart and brains than physical ability.

they've drafted one each year so far. Cormier, Senn and Schmid.

 

[My3Sons]

they've drafted one each year so far. Cormier, Senn and Schmid.

All low round picks.

 

[Cheddabombs]

All low round picks.

oh yeah they definitely don't prioritize them, but it seems like they constantly like the keep that cupboard full

 

[spitsfan24]

I don't really think we should draft a goalie with our early picks. Blackwood's been great, Cormier is ever improving and we still have Cory. I don't see the need to draft a goalie early.

 

[Tretyak 20]

I don't really think we should draft a goalie with our early picks. Blackwood's been great, Cormier is ever improving and we still have Cory. I don't see the need to draft a goalie early.

And Schmidt just turned in a very good season.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Weren't we thinking the same thing when we drafted Mac Black? Why do we need to pick a goalie in the 2nd round when we have Cory?

In retrospect, I'm kinda glad we did it

We have Cory, Mac Black and Schmid. Just take as many lottery tickets with skaters as possible.

 

[My3Sons]

We have Cory, Mac Black and Schmid. Just take as many lottery tickets with skaters as possible.

The way this team drafts in the sixth any goalie they pick there is probably contending for the Vezina in a year or two.

 

[Nubmer6]

The way this team drafts in the sixth any goalie they pick there is probably contending for the Vezina in a year or two.

I actually laughed out loud when I read this. Probably because it's so true.

 

[Nubmer6]

We have Cory, Mac Black and Schmid. Just take as many lottery tickets with skaters as possible.

BTW, as far as I heard, it's a very good goalie draft class. Just say'n

 

[StevenToddIves]

BTW, as far as I heard, it's a very good goalie draft class. Just say'n

I would draft a goalie this year, but unless Knight falls to the second round I would not take one until the fourth round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sounds like description of how Wheeler plays the way I read those evaluations. That sounds pretty good.

Neither one of Teply or Donovan have Wheeler's talent, but according to Steve Kournianos Teply could be a late first-round pick and Donovan should go in the second.

 

[Dafp]

I would draft a goalie this year, but unless Knight falls to the second round I would not take one until the fourth round.

Full disclosure - I played in goal and have always loved the position, so I'm absolutely biased.

I know that predicting goalies can be incredibly difficult (I seem to recall STI acknowledging that this isn't his strongest area, apologies if I've misremembered this). I wonder if this could make some scouts value goalies slightly lower - kind of "better the devil you know."

I think the general bias towards leaving goalies to the last few rounds is really skewed by a couple of exceptional cases where superstars have emerged from rounds 7, 8 or even were undrafted, whereas the starting netminder for well over half of the league was picked in the first 3 rounds. Not that they're all great. But if it's a numbers game, just like with forwards and defencemen, the higher you're picked the better your chances of making it. I also appreciate that where you pick goalies might be affected by the general league-wide approach and the likelihood of good goalies sliding down to later rounds - value for picks.

Based on a quick look at the last few years, teams start to look properly at goalies (not including the exceptional ones - Knight will be in this category) around the end of the second/start of the 3rd round. They don't seem to start being taken regularly until the 4th and particularly the 5th.

I do feel we need to add a goalie this year and given that we have 2 3rd round picks this year I'd be tempted to use the second of them on Sogaard or Wolf if they're available. Personally, I'd prefer to get ahead of the 4th round rush and not be forced to pick from the leavings. ​

 

[Tretyak 20]

All low round picks.

That's the way to do it. Look how many excellent goalies have come out of the later rounds. Look how many 1st round goalies have been disappointing.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Full disclosure - I played in goal and have always loved the position, so I'm absolutely biased.

I know that predicting goalies can be incredibly difficult (I seem to recall STI acknowledging that this isn't his strongest area, apologies if I've misremembered this). I wonder if this could make some scouts value goalies slightly lower - kind of "better the devil you know."

I think the general bias towards leaving goalies to the last few rounds is really skewed by a couple of exceptional cases where superstars have emerged from rounds 7, 8 or even were undrafted, whereas the starting netminder for well over half of the league was picked in the first 3 rounds. Not that they're all great. But if it's a numbers game, just like with forwards and defencemen, the higher you're picked the better your chances of making it. I also appreciate that where you pick goalies might be affected by the general league-wide approach and the likelihood of good goalies sliding down to later rounds - value for picks.

Based on a quick look at the last few years, teams start to look properly at goalies (not including the exceptional ones - Knight will be in this category) around the end of the second/start of the 3rd round. They don't seem to start being taken regularly until the 4th and particularly the 5th.

I do feel we need to add a goalie this year and given that we have 2 3rd round picks this year I'd be tempted to use the second of them on Sogaard or Wolf if they're available. Personally, I'd prefer to get ahead of the 4th round rush and not be forced to pick from the leavings. ​

You are correct, I'm admittedly awful at projecting goalies. And your argument is certainly more sound that mine, since you seem far more knowledgable about it.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I think the general bias towards leaving goalies to the last few rounds is really skewed by a couple of exceptional cases where superstars have emerged from rounds 7, 8 or even were undrafted, whereas the starting netminder for well over half of the league was picked in the first 3 rounds. Not that they're all great. But if it's a numbers game, just like with forwards and defencemen, the higher you're picked the better your chances of making it. I also appreciate that where you pick goalies might be affected by the general league-wide approach and the likelihood of good goalies sliding down to later rounds - value for picks.

I always thought it was a numbers thing more than anything. Your active NHL team needs 12-14 forwards, 6-8 defensemen, and 2-3 goalies. Which means that your NHL/AHL rosters only have room for 4-6 goalies. And, realistically, if you find a starting goalie or two, they're going to be with you for years.

 

[Dafp]

I've only really looked quickly at the current starting goalies around the league, having had doubts about the whole "don't go high on goalies" thing for a while. Rough numbers only because some teams have a 1A/1B situation, while others don't have a genuine starter-quality netminder at all (naming no names).

There were 8 selected in the first round, 8 in the second. Already over half the league. 5 in round three, 1 in the fourth, 3 in the fifth. None in the 6th. But then you have one in the seventh (Lundqvist) and one in the defunct 8th (Rinne). Those guys (along with Bobrovsky, who was undrafted) seem to have created the impression that picking goalies is a crapshoot. There are 4 undrafted starting netminders in the league, the same number as were picked in rounds 4,5 and 6 combined.

I'm not saying it's only worth picking a goalie in the first three rounds or not at all, it's obviously far more complex than that. I'm just suggesting that the whole "gems in later rounds" thing is something of a fallacy.

Even as a self-confessed goalie nerd, I'm still far more excited for Jack Hughes and the second round picks we have, none of which should be a goalie unless Knight is there at #34 (which isn't happening).

 

[Nubmer6]

But then you have one in the seventh (Lundqvist) and one in the defunct 8th (Rinne). Those guys (along with Bobrovsky, who was undrafted) seem to have created the impression that picking goalies is a crapshoot.

I think the shear number of goalies picked in the first couple rounds that haven't panned out (especially OUR picks) is what created the impression of a crapshoot.

 

[glenwo2]

Spencer Knight may end up being Trevor Kidd for all we know.

Goaltenders are strange that way in which we don't know how their game will translate in the NHL.

 

[Dafp]

I think the shear number of goalies picked in the first couple rounds that haven't panned out (especially OUR picks) is what created the impression of a crapshoot.

Spencer Knight may end up being Trevor Kidd for all we know.

Goaltenders are strange that way in which we don't know how their game will translate in the NHL.

But that’s true for any first round pick, regardless of position. There’s a Tedenby, a Matteau, a Corrente that can be cited for every Ahonen.

There’s a definite argument to be made for waiting slightly before drafting a goalie - it’s because you can guarantee the other GMs will be waiting too. It has nothing to do with talent or chances of reaching potential, it’s because of some kind of unspoken league-wide collusion.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the day:

RD Billy Constantinou, Kingston, OHL

It's no secret that the Devils' weakest position in the prospect pipeline is RD (Reilly Walsh, not much else). This is certainly going to be an area which the Devils will be intent on upgrading with 6 draft selections between #34 and #96 overall. Though the class of 2019 is notoriously thin on RD with universal high regard (only Soderstrom and Seider are sure bets for the first round), there are some interesting prospects with high probability of making the NHL (Korczak, McCarthy) and some high-upside prospects (Thomson, Tuomisto). Billy Constantinou fits into the latter category, but he is not without some risk which is likely to drop him into an indeterminate draft position somewhere in the second round.

Constantinou has very projectable size (6'0-185) and is one of the top skaters of any defenseman not named "Byram" in the 2019 draft. He has great hands, a very good shot, and is not afraid to play physical when necessary. So, why is he not a lock for the first round? Two reasons, really. First -- he's a bit of a riverboat gambler on D, and can show a propensity for getting caught deep in the offensive zone, leading to odd-man rushes going the other way. He is very confident with his significant ability, but sometimes overly so, leading to turnovers in bad areas and situations. Second, his production on the scoresheet has not nearly matched his talent level. Granted, a good deal of this could be attributed to the fact that he plies his trade on a godawful Kingston team (after an in-season trade from Niagara).

In my mind, good coaching and a better supporting cast will certainly alleviate Constantinou's first problem. It's perfectly natural for a talented teenager to try to do too much when his team is regularly down 4 goals in the second period. I believe that this will lead to better stat-lines, thus alleviating the second problem.

I'm a fan of Constantinou. When he makes a smart rush and good play, I see flashes of current Erik Brannstrom or young Mike Green in him -- he possesses a very similar tool box. I'm not certain I would take him at #34 overall; I think there will be similarly talented players there with less risk (Lassi Thomson, Marshall Warren, Case McCarthy), but if he falls to the Devils later second rounders (currently #55 & #60), Constantinou is a potential boom-type pick. Because of the adversity he faced in Kingston this year, it is more difficult to project his upside. Is he a bottom-four offensive, PP2-type, or could his impressive tools come together in the right situation and make him a huge draft-day steal? I've read some wildly divergent rankings on him, but he certainly needs to be on the radar for Devils fans on draft day.

 

[glenwo2]

But that’s true for any first round pick, regardless of position. There’s a Tedenby, a Matteau, a Corrente that can be cited for every Ahonen.

There’s a definite argument to be made for waiting slightly before drafting a goalie - it’s because you can guarantee the other GMs will be waiting too. It has nothing to do with talent or chances of reaching potential, it’s because of some kind of unspoken league-wide collusion.

You don't really believe that, do you?

Couldn't the real reason Goaltenders aren't selected in the earlier rounds is BECAUSE of how slowly they develop? And there's also the question of IF they develop at all, too.

Add to the fact as well that there are still position players available in the earlier rounds to go after, and we're looking at Goaltenders almost always get drafted in the much later rounds where teams draft based on scouting and potential at that point.