Prospect Info: Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0, Post-Lottery Victory

[Dafp]

Maybe collusion is the wrong word, I wasn’t trying to imply anything sinister. Just that the current trend is to leave goalie picks until later. You can model your draft board around the other GMs’ predicted behaviour - if you have 2 players tied in terms of ability/potential, but you’re sure that one of them will be available later then you pick the guy who’ll be gone, right?

Are you suggesting that goalies don’t develop from when they’re drafted?

Re Constantinou, I think this is one of the big advantages of having so many picks in the 2nd and 3rd - you can take a few risks on more boom/bust prospects like I see Constantinou being.

 

[glenwo2]

Maybe collusion is the wrong word, I wasn’t trying to imply anything sinister. Just that the current trend is to leave goalie picks until later. You can model your draft board around the other GMs’ predicted behaviour - if you have 2 players tied in terms of ability/potential, but you’re sure that one of them will be available later then you pick the guy who’ll be gone, right?

Are you suggesting that goalies don’t develop from when they’re drafted?

Re Constantinou, I think this is one of the big advantages of having so many picks in the 2nd and 3rd - you can take a few risks on more boom/bust prospects like I see Constantinou being.

Well from what I've seen out of all the NHL Drafts since '98 (when I started watching the NHL and became a Devils fan) is that the tendency has always been to select Goaltenders in later rounds 'cause there might be better position players in earlier rounds.

I think you might be over-thinking this.

 

[Nubmer6]

Maybe collusion is the wrong word, I wasn’t trying to imply anything sinister. Just that the current trend is to leave goalie picks until later. You can model your draft board around the other GMs’ predicted behaviour - if you have 2 players tied in terms of ability/potential, but you’re sure that one of them will be available later then you pick the guy who’ll be gone, right?

Are you suggesting that goalies don’t develop from when they’re drafted?

Re Constantinou, I think this is one of the big advantages of having so many picks in the 2nd and 3rd - you can take a few risks on more boom/bust prospects like I see Constantinou being.

GMs are always trying to make their teams the best they can be. If they thought it would be statistically beneficial to draft goalies earlier, I'm sure they'd do it.

 

[Dafp]

I think you might be over-thinking this.

Entirely possible. I just find it strange that two thirds of the league’s starting netminders were drafted in the first three rounds, when everyone mainly picks goalies in the late rounds...

 

[glenwo2]

Entirely possible. I just find it strange that two thirds of the league’s starting netminders were drafted in the first three rounds, when everyone mainly picks goalies in the late rounds...

Life is strange.

Just look at who's President of our Country right now.

Anyway, when I said the later rounds, I meant rounds that were not the 1st or 2nd rounders but if you found netminders that were drafted in the 2nd, then I stand corrected.

 

[Dafp]

Life is strange.

Just look at whose President of our Country right now.

Anyway, when I said the later rounds, I meant rounds that were not the 1st or 2nd rounders but if you found netminders that were drafted in the 2nd, then I stand corrected.

Well, I’m in the UK and we have Brexit, so...

FWIW, I wouldn’t look to draft a goalie in the second either. I do think that Mads Sogaard could be available when we pick in the 3rd and would be good value there though.

 

[Smitty426]

I see the Devils biggest trade asset as their cap room.

For sake of argument, let's look at the situation in Toronto. After signing Mitch Marner to a post-RFA deal, he will possibly get a raise in the $9 million range. This will put the team cap hit at about $75 million -- and that's still needing to replace two UFA defensemen (Gardiner, Hainsey) and having to also give a huge raise to Kasperi Kapanen -- maybe north of the $5 million neighborhood. If Shero were to call up the Leafs and offer to take the final year of Nathan Horton's $5 million dollar contract, it is possible that he could also get Kapanen back at a severely slashed price.

Steven, I am trying to understand the LTIR cap hit here on Horton. I thought the hit goes against Tor's cap and insurance pays it. So it does not actually cost ownership the money, but it goes against the teams $79.5 this yr. Someone else is telling me that it is covered and does not count against their cap. I know the rules on LTIR are difficult to understand, but for your scenario above can you explain what Tor cap hit is please? Thx

 

[Devils731]

Steven, I am trying to understand the LTIR cap hit here on Horton. I thought the hit goes against Tor's cap and insurance pays it. So it does not actually cost ownership the money, but it goes against the teams $79.5 this yr. Someone else is telling me that it is covered and does not count against their cap. I know the rules on LTIR are difficult to understand, but for your scenario above can you explain what Tor cap hit is please? Thx

Players in LTIR count against the cap but you’re allowed to go over the cap by the same amount as the salary you have on LTIR.

What can be difficult is LTIR doesn’t exist in the off-season so when you need to be under the cap for day 1 of the season, your players can’t be on LTIR yet so that can cause a cap crunch on a team.

Another problem is that whenever you’re going over the cap max utilizing LTIR given additional space you’re not banking any future cap space for the season. People think about the cap as a single number for the season but it’s actually a daily number and every day you’re under the cap you gain additional space you can use during the season.

 

[Smitty426]

Players in LTIR count against the cap but you’re allowed to go over the cap by the same amount as the salary you have on LTIR.

What can be difficult is LTIR doesn’t exist in the off-season so when you need to be under the cap for day 1 of the season, your players can’t be on LTIR yet so that can cause a cap crunch on a team.

Another problem is that whenever you’re going over the cap max utilizing LTIR given additional space you’re not banking any future cap space for the season. People think about the cap as a single number for the season but it’s actually a daily number and every day you’re under the cap you gain additional space you can use during the season.

Thx Devs731. So in this instance for Tor paying Marner/Kap/Gardiner/Hainsey in the off season, horton counts (but they can be over by 10% correct?) and what incentivizes them to trade with a team like NJ for the space we have? Maybe I am just missing it!

 

[Nubmer6]

Thx Devs731. So in this instance for Tor paying Marner/Kap/Gardiner/Hainsey in the off season, horton counts (but they can be over by 10% correct?) and what incentivizes them to trade with a team like NJ for the space we have? Maybe I am just missing it!

They can't be over at the start of the season... actually, I don't think it's the first game. There's a day where you have to get your roster down to be cap compliant, a day or two before the season starts, I think.

Anyway, one way around this is to temporarily move players to the minors, then move them back once you put people on LTIR. The problem, of course, is that the players you have to send down have to be waiver exempt, otherwise you risk losing him. Not every team can pull this off.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper prospect of the day:

LD Valeri Orekhov, Baris Astana, KHL
This kid first caught my eye as the captain for Kazhakstan in the WJC. He is a terrific skater, and plays a heady two-way game. He's a bit reedy, listed at 6'0-167, but he's played key minutes for his team in the KHL, which is not exactly common for a teenager. An overaged prospect, Orekhov turned 20 in January, and it may be a couple of seasons before he finds his way to North America. But a team which takes him in the 6th or 7th round might pay off huge dividends down the line, as he has the upside of a 30+ point, two-way, middle-pairing defenseman with a great set of wheels.

Orekhov is certainly in line with how the Devils like to draft in the late rounds -- a speedy, smart player with a high compete level and notable upside. Also, the Devils have selected a Russian-league overager in each of the past three drafts (Rykov, Zaitsev, Sharangovich). This makes me believe that Orekhov is certainly a name for Devils fans to have in their heads in the 5th through 7th rounds.

 

[MartyOwns]

Sleeper prospect of the day:

LD Valeri Orekhov, Baris Astana, KHL
This kid first caught my eye as the captain for Kazhakstan in the WJC.

i hope he says this to the other team when he has the puck:

 

[DevilsJunkie]

Sleeper Prospect of the day:

RD Billy Constantinou, Kingston, OHL

It's no secret that the Devils' weakest position in the prospect pipeline is RD (Reilly Walsh, not much else). This is certainly going to be an area which the Devils will be intent on upgrading with 6 draft selections between #34 and #96 overall. Though the class of 2019 is notoriously thin on RD with universal high regard (only Soderstrom and Seider are sure bets for the first round), there are some interesting prospects with high probability of making the NHL (Korczak, McCarthy) and some high-upside prospects (Thomson, Tuomisto). Billy Constantinou fits into the latter category, but he is not without some risk which is likely to drop him into an indeterminate draft position somewhere in the second round.

Constantinou has very projectable size (6'0-185) and is one of the top skaters of any defenseman not named "Byram" in the 2019 draft. He has great hands, a very good shot, and is not afraid to play physical when necessary. So, why is he not a lock for the first round? Two reasons, really. First -- he's a bit of a riverboat gambler on D, and can show a propensity for getting caught deep in the offensive zone, leading to odd-man rushes going the other way. He is very confident with his significant ability, but sometimes overly so, leading to turnovers in bad areas and situations. Second, his production on the scoresheet has not nearly matched his talent level. Granted, a good deal of this could be attributed to the fact that he plies his trade on a godawful Kingston team (after an in-season trade from Niagara).

In my mind, good coaching and a better supporting cast will certainly alleviate Constantinou's first problem. It's perfectly natural for a talented teenager to try to do too much when his team is regularly down 4 goals in the second period. I believe that this will lead to better stat-lines, thus alleviating the second problem.

I'm a fan of Constantinou. When he makes a smart rush and good play, I see flashes of current Erik Brannstrom or young Mike Green in him -- he possesses a very similar tool box. I'm not certain I would take him at #34 overall; I think there will be similarly talented players there with less risk (Lassi Thomson, Marshall Warren, Case McCarthy), but if he falls to the Devils later second rounders (currently #55 & #60), Constantinou is a potential boom-type pick. Because of the adversity he faced in Kingston this year, it is more difficult to project his upside. Is he a bottom-four offensive, PP2-type, or could his impressive tools come together in the right situation and make him a huge draft-day steal? I've read some wildly divergent rankings on him, but he certainly needs to be on the radar for Devils fans on draft day.

This player really stood out to me during the top prospects game. You can really see his talent when the puck is on his stick or when he's attacking the other team. That he was used on the penalty kill, was a sign (to me anyway) that he's got the tools to be effective in the defensive zone. Granted, that was in a glorified exhibition game. But still, the coaches put him in that situation and he wasn't a total disaster against some pretty good players in his age group.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This player really stood out to me during the top prospects game. You can really see his talent when the puck is on his stick or when he's attacking the other team. That he was used on the penalty kill, was a sign (to me anyway) that he's got the tools to be effective in the defensive zone. Granted, that was in a glorified exhibition game. But still, the coaches put him in that situation and he wasn't a total disaster against some pretty good players in his age group.

Constantinou definitely will be on the Devils radar in round two, in my estimation.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Ok @StevenToddIves, you’ve been nice enough to post so many sleeper profiles that I may actually be leaning towards the Devils keeping all of their 2nd round picks and having a shot at some of these guys. All barring of course that somebody falls into the 20s that we would like to move up for.

 

[Nubmer6]

Ok @StevenToddIves, you’ve been nice enough to post so many sleeper profiles that I may actually be leaning towards the Devils keeping all of their 2nd round picks and having a shot at some of these guys. All barring of course that somebody falls into the 20s that we would like to move up for.

Bah. I still want to trade Butcher and a 2nd for Brodin

 

[NJDFan4Life]

Who is the best comparable for Jack Hughes from the 80/90s era of the NHL? hoping @SteveToddIves can answer this for me

 

[Smitty426]

Who is the best comparable for Jack Hughes from the 80/90s era of the NHL? hoping @SteveToddless can answer this for me

I 'll go with Denis Savard (hopefully we get that)!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Bah. I still want to trade Butcher and a 2nd for Brodin

Brodin is not good enough to trade Butcher for, much less the second, as well.

Brodin does not fill the Devils needs for a physical defenseman, a shut-down defenseman, a right-shot defenseman, a defenseman with a big point shot, or a game-changing offensive defenseman. He is essentially a slight upgrade on 37-year old Andy Greene -- he is stylistically similar. I don't think there is a Minnesota fan or writer anywhere who would say he is anything more than the 4th D on that team.

If the Devils are talking trade with Minnesota, the target should be Jason Zucker.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Who is the best comparable for Jack Hughes from the 80/90s era of the NHL? hoping @SteveToddIves can answer this for me

I agree with @Smitty426 -- I would say Savard.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ok @StevenToddIves, you’ve been nice enough to post so many sleeper profiles that I may actually be leaning towards the Devils keeping all of their 2nd round picks and having a shot at some of these guys. All barring of course that somebody falls into the 20s that we would like to move up for.

I try to mention players who the Devils could find in all rounds. My last profile was Valeri Orekhov, who the Devils could possibly find in the 6th or 7th rounds. The players I have most often stated as Devils targets for the 2nd round are RDs Lassi Thomson and Case McCarthy. I've mentioned some guys the Devils could target in the 3rd/4th rounds like Antti Tuomisto, Tuukka Tieksola and Leevi Aaltonen.

I would move one of the Devils later second round picks for a player who could up the talent level now and motivate Taylor Hall to re-sign long term (the players I have been mentioning most are Jason Zucker and Brandon Carlo), but I would be very reticent to trade the #34 pick -- this draft is very strong to me, and a first-round caliber player (Beecher? Harley? Tomasino?) could fall.

 

[Smitty426]

I try to mention players who the Devils could find in all rounds. My last profile was Valeri Orekhov, who the Devils could possibly find in the 6th or 7th rounds. The players I have most often stated as Devils targets for the 2nd round are RDs Lassi Thomson and Case McCarthy. I've mentioned some guys the Devils could target in the 3rd/4th rounds like Antti Tuomisto, Tuukka Tieksola and Leevi Aaltonen.

I would move one of the Devils later second round picks for a player who could up the talent level now and motivate Taylor Hall to re-sign long term (the players I have been mentioning most are Jason Zucker and Brandon Carlo), but I would be very reticent to trade the #34 pick -- this draft is very strong to me, and a first-round caliber player (Beecher? Harley? Tomasino?) could fall.

Steve, I know it's draft centric but since your talking righties
What about a swap of Quennville for Ethan Bear in Edm?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Steve, I know it's drfat centric but since your talking righties
What about a swap of Quennville for Ethan Bear in Edm?

I would do that in a fraction of a heart-beat.

I had Bear ranked just outside my first round for the 2015 draft (I believe I had him #31 overall) -- I couldn't fathom that he fell to the 5th round. The kid is just so smart, and his compete level is terrific. He would swiftly jump Santini, Carrick and Mueller on the depth chart, in my mind. Do you have Ray Shero on speed dial?

 

[Smitty426]

I would do that in a fraction of a heart-beat.

I had Bear ranked just outside my first round for the 2015 draft (I believe I had him #31 overall) -- I couldn't fathom that he fell to the 5th round. The kid is just so smart, and his compete level is terrific. He would swiftly jump Santini, Carrick and Mueller on the depth chart, in my mind. Do you have Ray Shero on speed dial?

I thought Q could get another chance and going home might be an incentive. I read where he is playing decent in B'field. What else if anything would it take from either side

 

[StevenToddIves]

I thought Q could get another chance and going home might be an incentive. I read where he is playing decent in B'field. What else if anything would it take from either side

Makes sense for both sides. Quenneville would get a chance as a mid-six F on Edmonton, Bear could crack the Devils top 6 on D. I think it would be a fair deal, even up.