Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXX

[devilsblood]

His GF% is a team worst 36.8%. Since 2018 his GF% is 40%. Untradeable.

Well Nico's is worse this year.

Zacha does have a xGA of 48% this year, so def some bad luck going on.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Well Nico's is worse this year.

Zacha does have a xGA of 48% this year, so def some bad luck going on.

I do not give a shit about Nico’s season, injuries have derailed it. How are you not aware of this?

Zacha is shooting an unsustainable percentage and is still well underwater at 5 on 5. He isn’t a good player.

 

[devilsblood]

I do not give a shit about Nico’s season, injuries have derailed it. How are you not aware of this?

Zacha is shooting an unsustainable percentage and is still well underwater at 5 on 5. He isn’t a good player.

PDO, XGA, ='s bad luck.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm expecting a Zajac like rebound in Gf% next year for Zacha. Zajac went 42ish% over the prior 3 years and then was at 56% this year. Shara Zajac Kuok dominated in the gf dept, despite some very tough matchups.

Shara and Kuok have not fared nearly as well since moving to Hughes's line. Very much in the red actually, despite much easier usage.

Am I trolling right now? Yeah, but I feel I need to show the folly of some of the stat usage I'm seeing on here.

 

[Eggtimer]

It gets depressing reading these posts. I think I’m better off being clueless when it comes to advanced stats. It’s much easier to just watch the game and like a player like Zacha when it looks like he is playing better vs breaking down every single stat possible and decide “he sucks” .

 

[devilsblood]

It gets depressing reading these posts. I think I’m better off being clueless when it comes to advanced stats. It’s much easier to just watch the game and like a player like Zacha when it looks like he is playing better vs breaking down every single stat possible and decide “he sucks” .

Those guys don't break down every stat possible. They only break down stats which support their opinion.

 

[Billdo]

He isn’t a good player.

This is just so god damn stupid at this point.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This is just so god damn stupid at this point.

I’ll correct myself: he is not even close to a good player.

 

[Eggtimer]

I don’t get how our leading scorer is “not good” .
I know there is more to the game than points but come on.. how can the team lead in points not at least be considered an ok player?
He’s a passenger , defensively not great , possession sucks and on and on and on...
Whatever

 

[Unknown Caller]

I don’t get how our leading scorer is “not good” .
I know there is more to the game than points but come on.. how can the team lead in points not at least be considered an ok player?
He’s a passenger , defensively not great , possession sucks and on and on and on...
Whatever

Because when a guy accumulates points due to ridiculous anomalies, he’s not going to sustain that production.

Looking at underlying numbers and play outside of pure points tells you the true value of a player. When a player’s numbers indicates his production is going to collapse in the near, that’s a big problem.

Also, when a team is expected to allow more goals than they’re going to score with a certain player on the ice, that player is not good.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

The traits that cause Zacha to do poorly in a lot of these advanced stats are quite visible. He is weak on the boards for a big man and loses more battles than he wins. When given a chance to get it out, he is often the one turning it over extending shifts in his own end. He doesn't separate players from the puck when defending. For a "Bobby Holik" type player, he seems quite soft.

Personally i would trade him while his value is sky high. NJ needs forwards who can get the puck back in all zones (Mercer). It doesn't have to be using size, Hughes is phenomenal at getting the puck back, Hischier is too.

 

[MauDevils]

I'm just glad Johnsson is back. Advanced stats tell me he's a hell of a player.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I'm just glad Johnsson is back. Advanced stats tell me he's a hell of a player.

I’m just glad looking at a player’s baseline counting stats tells the whole story. Zacha is a true sniper and we should expect 25 goals from him every season moving forward.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm just glad Johnsson is back. Advanced stats tell me he's a hell of a player.

Their career points per game are roughly equal even with Johnsson having his worst season and Zacha having his best season. Neither of these players matter very much.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm just glad Johnsson is back. Advanced stats tell me he's a hell of a player.

I was going to bring up Johnsson to redirect the convo.

In addition to a solid cf%(Behind only Hughes amongst regular fwd's) he also has a solid gf% at an even 20vs20.

I'm expecting a bounce back next year.

 

[britdevil]

I was going to bring up Johnsson to redirect the convo.

In addition to a solid cf%(Behind only Hughes amongst regular fwd's) he also has a solid gf% at an even 20vs20.

I'm expecting a bounce back next year.

I wouldn't.

 

[IT0]

will ruff be the coach next season.. or did he have 1 year deal ?

 

[devilsblood]

Their career points per game are roughly equal even with Johnsson having his worst season and Zacha having his best season. Neither of these players matter very much.

Johnsson is 2 years older, didn't play his first full NHL season until he was 23, and played a ton with Matthews and Nylander the last 2 years, but cool comparison.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I was going to bring up Johnsson to redirect the convo.

In addition to a solid cf%(Behind only Hughes amongst regular fwd's) he also has a solid gf% at an even 20vs20.

I'm expecting a bounce back next year.

If he can show he belongs in the NHL in any role next season, that would be a "bounce back" so yeah I guess I expect that to happen but wouldn't be surprised if he bombs training camp and gets waived until an injury.

 

[mdj12784]

It gets depressing reading these posts. I think I’m better off being clueless when it comes to advanced stats. It’s much easier to just watch the game and like a player like Zacha when it looks like he is playing better vs breaking down every single stat possible and decide “he sucks” .

110% agree. Production beats any “advanced stats.”

 

[devilsblood]

I’m just glad looking at a player’s baseline counting stats tells the whole story. Zacha is a true sniper and we should expect 25 goals from him every season moving forward.

Well 25 is a lower pace then where he is at this season, so that would allow for some reversion. Even if we don't factor in linemates, position and increased pp time, all of which should factor in going fwd.

He won't be playing with the likes of a washed up Wayne Simmonds next year.

 

[MauDevils]

I was going to bring up Johnsson to redirect the convo.

In addition to a solid cf%(Behind only Hughes amongst regular fwd's) he also has a solid gf% at an even 20vs20.

I'm expecting a bounce back next year.

 

[Guttersniped]

Think this year has to be considered an anomaly due to the jumbled schedule, lack of postseason, etc.

If you look at last year's Binghamton team, there were AHL veteran types such as Conner, Melchiori, and Cumisky who had all had a taste of the NHL. With the exception of Ben Street, possibly due to the fact that both New Jersey and the AHL team were essentially in the same building, that was not the case.

With so many first-year players, and a few junior age players that would have been in the OHL had it not been shut down, this year's team was usually much younger than the opposition (much like the parent club). Can't help thinking there will be a few more veteran minor leaguers to go with the returnees and that should benefit both Utica and the organization as a whole.

All of this basically. I don’t know why people are putting so much emphasis on the the AHL that was slapped together in the empty practice rink at the last minute.

They play three teams, two very good ones and weaker one who picked up a ringer goalie we should have resigned considering he went 4-0 with us last season when traded Domingue for him late in the season (two shut outs and 3 GA total in all 4 games.)

The goaltending will be very different as they signed Daws. They can dump either or both RFAs Senn and Cormier and can keep Mitens. Sign a vet AHL goalie.

They had so many rookie defensemen that they couldn’t pair them with more vet tweener dmen (which is literally how it’s done in the AHL all the time.) And lately they had played with fewer than 6 defensemen, including a game with only 4.

And every AHL teams has an older offensive forwards to bolster scoring. This year the problem is Ben Street is 34 and he already likely needed to be replaced. Last season the center depth could handle Street being out all of January but they need a younger and healthier version. They aren’t that hard to get, you just pay someone to come over.

The center depth is an issue a Street replacement is part of the solution. Schnarr and Talvitie will be back. The 5’7” 170 lb St Denis ain’t doing it for me, he can go, but resigning Jobst might be good move. (Even though Jobst is 5’8”.) Maybe Schmelzer too, depending on what was wrong with him this season in terms of injuries.

 

[MadDevil]

Saying Zacha sucks or isn't a good player is a bit extreme. However I also don't think Zacha is as good as his most vehement defenders think he is. I think he's probably somewhere between his first 4 seasons and this season. Which given how his first 4 years (well, more like 3 2/3 given how he finished 2019-20) went, I would still be more than happy with.

 

[devilsblood]

One thing the anti Zacha crowd is missing when they talk about his over all shooting % is that he is actually shooting below his career average on the PP this season. But he is getting more minutes on the PP, while shooting more while on the pp. So despite shooting a lesser % while on the pp, because he gets more minutes, and shooting more, a larger % of his shots are coming in the high % situation, and thus raising his overall %.


Imo, he should get even more pp minutes next year, given he has been far and away our best pp producer this year. And as a unit, the Devils PP should improve next year, so likely Zacha get's more assists as well.