Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXX

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billingtons ghost

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Nov 29, 2010
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Because when a guy accumulates points due to ridiculous anomalies, he’s not going to sustain that production.

Looking at underlying numbers and play outside of pure points tells you the true value of a player. When a player’s numbers indicates his production is going to collapse in the near, that’s a big problem.

Also, when a team is expected to allow more goals than they’re going to score with a certain player on the ice, that player is not good.

Or you know, as in most cases with 'data' - stats have to be taken in context, and don't represent a complete picture - especially when they are the remedial crap that some feed off of in here and like to regurgitate - especially in tiny sample sets like over a certain number of games in an abbreviated season.

MAYBE, it's just all garbage-in, garbage-out, and the analysis just sucks.
 
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Tao Jersey Jones

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In the most polite way possible, shoot Martel and St. Denis into the sun.
Martel took over as points leader after Street went down before he was injured and played mostly top six but could play on third line as well. He took too many PIM in my opinion, but he could set a tone to a game with his feistiness.

St. Denis is a middle six center who can play fourth line and RW. Lippolis called his fight last night the best of the season.



I see these guys as stopgaps but thought Martel may have earned his way back before he had to be helped off the ice.
 

TheDuke93

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You continue to look at the question from your own angle. I do not see the Holtz problem in the above description. If he can do the job he's supposed to do well, he'll be a useful hockey player. And it does not matter what kind of ceiling we imagine, and how bad or good he will look in defensive zone in compare to Zacha.
I was purely responding to your description of Holtz's defensive play compared to Zacha's when the two can't even be compared in reality. Ceiling also does matter because Zacha is the perfect example of production being worth more then everything else in most eyes.
 

billingtons ghost

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Saying Zacha sucks or isn't a good player is a bit extreme. However I also don't think Zacha is as good as his most vehement defenders think he is. I think he's probably somewhere between his first 4 seasons and this season. Which given how his first 4 years (well, more like 3 2/3 given how he finished 2019-20) went, I would still be more than happy with.

Does anyone on this board claim that he is a star player? A first liner? I seem to see most of the arguments ranging from 'we should leave him exposed' (which mostly disappeared mid-season by the time he was our leading scorer) to we should trade him and a first for another wing (Brock Boeser) which is worth discussing, but ultimately seems to be a lateral move that slightly improves the team if you think Zacha sucks and has peaked, or seems slightly pointless if you think he's got a much higher ceiling and is more versatile than Boeser (he is).

It's pretty much irrational application of a small sample set of stats this year versus what seems like a pretty palpable development of a player in both role and confidence.
 

beekay414

#FireLindy
Jul 1, 2016
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I believe it would end up costing more but either way I would caution trying to speed up the rebuild with acquiring forwards. We have the young forward pieces here and coming internally minus a character piece here or there. Any trade with major chips from our team going the other way should be for a young established defenseman that meets the timeline our players are in.
I don't think it would qualify as speeding up the rebuild by acquiring a 24 year old winger.
 

Goomba

Mario is a Devils fan
May 7, 2021
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yfw Mark Recchi is named head coach
Certainly wouldnt feel great about that unless its in 2-3 years being under Ruff, hes shown success, and taken guys to the next step and its measurable as an impact by him moreso than Lindy
 

Cheddabombs

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You're all too focused on Zacha. It's all about earning the B, without that we'll never have success

aff36e3d-55a0-47d5-8fa7-fce0991da8e8-DevilsTZ.jpg
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
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yfw Mark Recchi is named head coach

That’d be the most egregious example of falling upward since Adam Gase essentially became coach and GM of the Jets after being fired from Miami.

There’s no reason for them to replace Ruff at this point but given Fitz didn’t pick him on his own and the fact he’s not 100% the GM next year anyway, I can’t rule a coaching change out either.
 

Unknown Caller

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If some devils fans hate Zacha and think he is passanger and it`s bad and make him near to useless, they should start to hate Holtz before game one. Zacha is a selky trophy candidate, 5on5 beast and every second worker in compare to Holtz.
Coaches should use the strengths of the players, compensate for the weaknesses, select combinations and organize the game accordingly. Sometimes you need to change players for certain tasks, find more suitable candidates. Especially for a player like Zaсha, there is a lot of work in the squad. And at the moment, Zaсha is a part of great chemistry duo, looks like a well-functioning link, rightfully taking his place and doing his job well. In accordance with his task and, most importantly, his salary.

In fairness, I’m not a massive Holtz fan either. He’s a nice prospect, but I don’t disagree with you.

People like Zacha because he’s putting the puck in the net at an unsustainable rate. Period. When his shooting percentage regresses and he’s scoring at a 12-15 goal a season rate again, we’ll see how people feel. I get that it’s painful to admit it from a fan perspective, but he’s just not a great player.
 

Scorcho

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That's fine too. My point is, you can find guys like Dumba, or guys who play at a somewhat similar level, without trading Zacha.

We pulled Koulikov out of nowhere and he played well.

Ryan Murray and his 55% gf(I know, I know, luck).

Solid veteran stop gaps are not that hard to find. And I really don't think Dumba is much more then that.
I can agree with all of this, I just don't think a successful devils team is one that is still employing Subban
 

PizzaAndPucks

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Nov 29, 2018
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In fairness, I’m not a massive Holtz fan either. He’s a nice prospect, but I don’t disagree with you.

People like Zacha because he’s putting the puck in the net at an unsustainable rate. Period. When his shooting percentage regresses and he’s scoring at a 12-15 goal a season rate again, we’ll see how people feel. I get that it’s painful to admit it from a fan perspective, but he’s just not a great player.
He's a great piece to have and has slowly improved every season. I think he tops out as a 50 point player next year and that is good considering he isnt a bad defensive player. He's just not a core piece like Hughes , Smith Hischier , Bratt and Blackwood. Guys like Holtz , Mercer , Foote and Clarke will hopefully challenge him and Kuokannen for a top 6 wing spot soon. Sharangovich has been a gem and might be longterm a 2nd line 20-30 goal 2 way forward. Let's just hope he keeps it up.
 

Poppy Whoa Sonnet

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I expect Zacha to shoot better now that he's a wing, getting to more dangerous spots of the ice. Last game there was a graphic showing his slot shot volume is up for example this season. 16% maybe will be his career season peak but I think maybe using his career average (11%) isn't the best predictor of his future shooting percentage given the role shift.

I wouldn't be shocked if Zacha seems like deadweight next season and we regret not trading him but a lot of this discussion seems predicated on the idea that he's coveted by other GMs and I don't really know if that's true. I think the closest comparable player that was recently moved was maybe Sam Bennett who got traded for a 2nd and a (youngish) B prospect. I don't think it makes sense to move Zacha for that, the hypothetical Boeser trade yes, but I feel like a contingent on this board feels moving Zacha would be addition by subtraction but just isn't willing to stick their neck out fully and make that argument.
 
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Unknown Caller

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He's a great piece to have and has slowly improved every season. I think he tops out as a 50 point player next year and that is good considering he isnt a bad defensive player. He's just not a core piece like Hughes , Smith Hischier , Bratt and Blackwood. Guys like Holtz , Mercer , Foote and Clarke will hopefully challenge him and Kuokannen for a top 6 wing spot soon. Sharangovich has been a gem and might be longterm a 2nd line 20-30 goal 2 way forward. Let's just hope he keeps it up.

But has he really improved every season or do we just believe that because he's scoring more goals? I think the fact that he is shooting 15.8% in a shortened season has led you to believe he has improved every season. Look, I get that everyone wants to talk themselves into the idea that he has turned into a sniper who will shoot like 14% every year and pot 25-30 goals on the wing. That would be incredible. If we're being responsible and honest with ourselves, that's not going to happen.

I like Pav as a person, especially given his close relationship with Nico and Bratt. I would love for him to be the productive player we've seen this season. But if I'm using my head and being honest, he's just not.
 

Scorcho

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I like zacha because I've liked him since he was in sarnia. He's developed much slower than I'd hope beeut he's finally showing why he was drafted highly.
 
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Unknown Caller

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I like zacha because I've liked him since he was in sarnia. He's developed much slower than I'd hope beeut he's finally showing why he was drafted highly.

I loved him in Sarnia as well. He's not finally showing why he was drafted highly though. He really hasn't improved much, and again, his game as it stands will not translate to this type of production every year. Feel free to quote this in 2022 or 2023 when he's scoring at a 17 goal pace in an 82 game season and has been passed over by multiple other guys.
 

RSeen

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I'd be all for trading Zacha in a package for a Dman. That would also allow us to protect someone like McLeod, while selling high on a poor 5on5 player, who is unlikely to get the PP time he got this year going forward.
 

TheDuke93

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Does anyone on this board claim that he is a star player? A first liner? I seem to see most of the arguments ranging from 'we should leave him exposed' (which mostly disappeared mid-season by the time he was our leading scorer) to we should trade him and a first for another wing (Brock Boeser) which is worth discussing, but ultimately seems to be a lateral move that slightly improves the team if you think Zacha sucks and has peaked, or seems slightly pointless if you think he's got a much higher ceiling and is more versatile than Boeser (he is).

It's pretty much irrational application of a small sample set of stats this year versus what seems like a pretty palpable development of a player in both role and confidence.
But the thing is people think he is equal to Boeser who is a star.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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I know my hypothetical Zacha/NYI 1st for Boeser comment a few days ago is what brought about the Zacha debate so I apologize for that...

but I DO wonder what type of player that package could get us....ideally a DMan

I also think swapping Zacha for Dumba would be a nice move on our part
 

RSeen

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At this point, McLeod should probably be protected regardless. I do get your sentiment though.
If we are keeping Zacha, I'd assume he, Jack, Nico, Bratt, Yegor and Kuok get protected. The 7th spot I'd think most likely is Wood.

I'm not 100% if Jack requires protection given his age - perhaps someone can clarify. If he does not require, than McLeod is next on the list.

After McLeod I think there is a drop off. I would not be disappointed to lose Johnson or Bastian.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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If we are keeping Zacha, I'd assume he, Jack, Nico, Bratt, Yegor and Kuok get protected. The 7th spot I'd think most likely is Wood.

I'm not 100% if Jack requires protection given his age - perhaps someone can clarify. If he does not require, than McLeod is next on the list.

After McLeod I think there is a drop off. I would not be disappointed to lose Johnson or Bastian.

Hughes is exempt.
 
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