Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXX

[Goomba]

Their career points per game are roughly equal even with Johnsson having his worst season and Zacha having his best season. Neither of these players matter very much.

Pavel Zacha certainly matters; hes a skilled player whos confidence is rising daily and is best buds with Niki and Jesper

hes in a whole other tier compared to Johnsson

 

[Billdo]

I don’t get how our leading scorer is “not good” .
I know there is more to the game than points but come on.. how can the team lead in points not at least be considered an ok player?
He’s a passenger , defensively not great , possession sucks and on and on and on...
Whatever

It's because the same advanced stats that say Johnsson has been ok say Pav is bad.

 

[MauDevils]

Zacha's play was never my concern, it was his effort and consistency. He's probably pretty emotional and didn't handle previous coaches well once things went poorly.

He's clearly getting a ton of confidence and stability from Ruff. He's playing well with his best buddies and not getting juggled around. His defensive "weakness" has been eased by the shift to wing. And now he's getting an increased role on the PP too.

It feels like he's been put in a position to succeed and we're seeing a very motivated player right now.

No clue if it will last, but to deny any tangible improvement is just odd. If you look at advanced stats since Nico's return he's actually been very good.

 

[devilsblood]

Even a slight bounce back gets him to 25 points.

If he, or any 4th liner, put up 25 points and a dead even gf, I'd be very cool with that player.

The Johnsson sucks narrative is way overdone.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

All of this basically. I don’t know why people are putting so much emphasis on the the AHL that was slapped together in the empty practice rink at the last minute.

They play three teams, two very good ones and weaker one who picked up a ringer goalie we should have resigned considering he went 4-0 with us last season when traded Domingue for him late in the season (two shut outs and 3 GA total in all 4 games.)

The goaltending will be very different as they signed Daws. They can dump either or both RFAs Senn and Cormier and can keep Mitens. Sign a vet AHL goalie.

They had so many rookie defensemen that they couldn’t pair them with more vet tweener dmen (which is literally how it’s done in the AHL all the time.) And lately they had played with fewer than 6 defensemen, including a game with only 4.

And every AHL teams has an older offensive forwards to bolster scoring. This year the problem is Ben Street is 34 and he already likely needed to be replaced. Last season the center depth could handle Street being out all of January but they need a younger and healthier version. They aren’t that hard to get, you just pay someone to come over.

The center depth is an issue a Street replacement is part of the solution. Schnarr and Talvitie will be back. The 5’7” 170 lb St Denis ain’t doing it for me, he can go, but resigning Jobst might be good move. (Even though Jobst is 5’8”.) Maybe Schmelzer too, depending on what was wrong with him this season in terms of injuries.

Street led the team in scoring before he went down. The fact he has been stashed on the taxi squad and therefore not mentioned by Dennehy and Lippolis makes me think he's not in the plans for the future, although Dennehy did say some injured players would return in the last few games. Hellickson is one (had to have a "procedure" after being injured in his first pro game). Cam Darcy is finally a healthy scratch, so I don't think he makes it to Utica along with healthy scratch tryout Miles Koules.

 

[devilsblood]

More on Zacha in regards to getting more shots on the pp.

Doing some qk glance math here given his shot totals the last 3 years are right there around 100.

% of shots on the PP.

15%
16%
28%

So yeah, 5v5 he is shooting a career best(which is only about 1% higher then in 18-19) but, not surprisingly, there is more to the story then "unsustainable" or "luck".

Again, I think he should see even more pp minutes next year, this season he is 78th(ish) in terms of pp toi per game. I think the entire 1st unit should get a larger % of the pp minutes. This year the team averaged 5:57 of pp minutes per game. While Zacha averaged 2:42. That needs to be higher.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm expecting a Zajac like rebound in Gf% next year for Zacha. Zajac went 42ish% over the prior 3 years and then was at 56% this year. Shara Zajac Kuok dominated in the gf dept, despite some very tough matchups.

Shara and Kuok have not fared nearly as well since moving to Hughes's line. Very much in the red actually, despite much easier usage.

Am I trolling right now? Yeah, but I feel I need to show the folly of some of the stat usage I'm seeing on here.

Well Zacha can’t rebound if he was never there in the first place but permanently being on the wing should help there.

You brought up the Hughes and Zajac line comparison before and I responded with the stats for both.
Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIX

I guess you can see folly in pointing out things like the goaltending was way better then or that they were just a bit plain luckier (as seen by vast differences in PDO). And just how good Hughes line is in possession etc (which is a thing.)

I don’t know why your “stat usage” is superior considering your mostly taking random swipes at 1/3 of the forwards on the team not named Zacha to create an argument that, as far as I can tell, is “everybody else is wrong about a lot of stuff (which I’m right about too?) so I’m totally right about Zacha”.

I’m not sure what you want to have happen here. The board is generally more pro-Zacha then it’s ever been. Almost all the people who want to trade him are talking about getting useful players in return, not dumping him. If you keep next season’s projections optimistic but realistic then there’s a real chance you can finish the victory lap.

Arguing that Zacha’s just as good as various stars in this league and will get 30G/70 points is testing the boundaries of reality though. In the end we have to wait until next season to see the exciting next chapter of this big goof’s development. Trust me, I’m genuinely rooting for the guy and I’ll be bummed if his 5v5 shooting is in the crapper again. (Or he plays more at center.)

 

[devilsblood]

Well Zacha can’t rebound if he was never there in the first place but permanently being on the wing should help there.

You brought up the Hughes and Zajac line comparison before and I responded with the stats for both.
Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIX

I guess you can see folly in pointing out things like the goaltending was way better then or that they were just a bit plain luckier (as seen by vast differences in PDO). And just how good Hughes line is in possession etc (which is a thing.)

I don’t know why your “stat usage” is superior considering your mostly taking random swipes at 1/3 of the forwards on the team not named Zacha to create an argument that, as far as I can tell, is “everybody else is wrong about a lot of stuff (which I’m right about too?) so I’m totally right about Zacha”.

I’m not sure what you want to have happen here. The board is generally more pro-Zacha then it’s ever been. Almost all the people who want to trade him are talking about getting useful players in return, not dumping him. If you keep next season’s projections optimistic but realistic then there’s a real chance you can finish the victory lap.

Arguing that Zacha’s just as good as various stars in this league and will get 30G/70 points is testing the boundaries of reality though. In the end we have to wait until next season to see the exciting next chapter of this big goof’s development. Trust me, I’m genuinely rooting for the guy and I’ll be bummed if his 5v5 shooting is in the crapper again. (Or he plays more at center.)

A bit of my stat posting are counter examples showing these stats can be misleading.

Zacha's Gf% this year is bad? Well what about Hughes with Shara and Kuok? What about Nico? What about Zacha's xGF(not really a stat imo, and not something that I like), but hey, he's been unlucky(hate this one too).

I've also gone heavy in the Zacha defense lately because their are plenty of Zacha attacks. "Untradeable" I mean I guess that is obviously a troll job, but I'll take the bait.

I'd argue on Hughes's behalf if we want to go that way. I'd also argue on Johnsson's behalf if we want to go that way.

But the Zacha discussion is one that keeps popping up.

 

[Guttersniped]

More on Zacha in regards to getting more shots on the pp.

Doing some qk glance math here given his shot totals the last 3 years are right there around 100.

% of shots on the PP.

15%
16%
28%

So yeah, 5v5 he is shooting a career best(which is only about 1% higher then in 18-19) but, not surprisingly, there is more to the story then "unsustainable" or "luck".

Again, I think he should see even more pp minutes next year, this season he is 78th(ish) in terms of pp toi per game. I think the entire 1st unit should get a larger % of the pp minutes. This year the team averaged 5:57 of pp minutes per game. While Zacha averaged 2:42. That needs to be higher.

Shooting % on the PP is typically much higher but yes Zacha’s strong special teams play is something that has always made him worth keeping in the line-up in the last few years. (Since we were so thin at forward anyway.)

This season Zacha has the second most total PP ice time after Hughes this season and he’s third most TOI/GP after Hughes and Nico.

Hughes 2:58
Nico 2:57
Zacha 2:42

The other players who averaged over 1m on the PP
Smith 2:36
Palmieri 2:33
Bratt 2:22
Gusev 2:11
Subban 2:02
Wood 1:54
Severson 1:51
Johnsson 1:23
Butcher 1:16
Kuokkanen 1:14
Zajac 1:02
Sharagovich 1:00

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Johnsson is 2 years older, didn't play his first full NHL season until he was 23, and played a ton with Matthews and Nylander the last 2 years, but cool comparison.

Wow, I wasn’t aware of any of those facts. Thanks!

 

[devilsblood]

Shooting % on the PP is typically much higher but yes Zacha’s strong special teams play is something that has always made him worth keeping in the line-up in the last few years. (Since we were so thin at forward anyway.)

This season Zacha has the second most total PP ice time after Hughes this season and he’s third most TOI/GP after Hughes and Nico.

Hughes 2:58
Nico 2:57
Zacha 2:42

The other players who averaged over 1m on the PP
Smith 2:36
Palmieri 2:33
Bratt 2:22
Gusev 2:11
Subban 2:02
Wood 1:54
Severson 1:51
Johnsson 1:23
Butcher 1:16
Kuokkanen 1:14
Zajac 1:02
Sharagovich 1:00

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

I think you missed my point. I know pp shooting %'s tend to be higher, and that is the case with Zacha as well.

My point was a larger % of his overall shots have come on the pp this year, compared to previous years, thus that will raise his over all shooting %.

As per playing more on the PP. I think the entire 1st unit should play more. Boeser,(I note him cause I've been "stat snooping" around those parts lately) doesn't produce on the PP as well as Zacha yet plays near 4 minutes of pp minutes per game.

I think we have a pretty clear top unit going into next year, I'd like to see them play top unit minutes the way other teams use their top units.

 

[devilsblood]

Wow, I wasn’t aware of any of those facts. Thanks!

So you admit it was a bad comparison? Then why make it?

 

[Goomba]

Zacha's play was never my concern, it was his effort and consistency. He's probably pretty emotional and didn't handle previous coaches well once things went poorly.

He's clearly getting a ton of confidence and stability from Ruff. He's playing well with his best buddies and not getting juggled around. His defensive "weakness" has been eased by the shift to wing. And now he's getting an increased role on the PP too.

It feels like he's been put in a position to succeed and we're seeing a very motivated player right now.

No clue if it will last, but to deny any tangible improvement is just odd. If you look at advanced stats since Nico's return he's actually been very good.

Reference was made a few years ago to Pavel struggling with being away from his father, who was his biggest inspiration and confidence booster. Hynes' usage of him only compounded on that situation.

I see confidence in him that I didnt see before minus spurts. Spurts in which he usually scored a highlight-ish reel goal or made a crisp pass.

 

[Guttersniped]

A bit of my stat posting are counter examples showing these stats can be misleading.

Zacha's Gf% this year is bad? Well what about Hughes with Shara and Kuok? What about Nico? What about Zacha's xGF(not really a stat imo, and not something that I like), but hey, he's been unlucky(hate this one too).

I've also gone heavy in the Zacha defense lately because their are plenty of Zacha attacks. "Untradeable" I mean I guess that is obviously a troll job, but I'll take the bait.

I'd argue on Hughes's behalf if we want to go that way. I'd also argue on Johnsson's behalf if we want to go that way.

But the Zacha discussion is one that keeps popping up.

Because Zacha’s GF% has sucked all year? It’s one of the lowest on the team 5v5 despite his 8 5v5 goals.

I don’t argue one way or the other to suit a particular situation. Zacha’s defense was impossibly bad last season and he bled goals against this season too.

Nico came back at the tail end of the season when our goaltending has imploded. That’s literally when 15 of his 20 games have happened. It’s a bad faith argument to ignore when in the season he played. We didn’t learn much about Nico this season other than he can really help our power play and the kid will block a mean shot even if he knows it will be real painful.

The answer isn’t trying to hand-wave Zacha’s GA away. His defense wasn’t as much of a problem in 2017-18 or 2018-19 so it’s not a permanent affliction. Playing on wing should help.

Zacha’s shots/60 at 5v5 is better than any of his previous seasons, he’s even finally eclipsed 2017-18, as it’s up to 6.39. This may not sound like much but I’m Sal-giving-niche-stats level excited about that because it dropped to a career low 4.48 (which is Josefson-like bad) which was part of the reason why he had 3 5v5 goals last year. He wasn’t only shooting 5.26%, he wasn’t shooting nearly enough and I honestly thought the dope was quickly playing his way out of the NHL. (Horrific defense and little goal scoring is a bad combo.)

And his individual shooting/shot creation stats 5v5 are generally matching or exceeding his career best (after they had gotten worse). And it isn’t rocket science that he does do better on the rush, with more confidence while using his strength and size to get to the net. Zacha is doing numerous things better to score more, the puck isn’t magically bouncing off him into the net.

Pavel Zacha - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

And I don’t want to pretend I’m super zen and I don’t get testy and argumentative (because no one would buy it), but the “well, the players you like suck too” you’re using just ends up being a trolly annoyance.

@Guadana is a good example of an effective Zacha champion, he sticks to his touting his strengths and potential productiveness as a complimentary scoring forward. I haven’t mentioned it but I flat out stole calling Zacha a “complimentary scoring forward” from him. (I mean I have heard the phrase before but it helped change my frame of thinking about Zacha which had been “below average scoring center some people inexplicably think could become a two-way 3rd line center”).

 

[The 29th Pick]

And I don’t want to pretend I’m super zen and I don’t get testy and argumentative (because no one would by it), but the “well, the players you like suck too” you’re using just ends up being a trolly annoyance.

buy

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

So you admit it was a bad comparison? Then why make it?

Guy who compared Pavel ****ing Zacha to Brock Boeser. He is much closer to Johnsson.

 

[TheDuke93]

Ben Street has been injured and stashed on the taxi squad. Still need some players that know the league. It will be interesting to see who makes it to Utica. I think Schmelzer and Ben Thomson stick. Jobst has earned another contract. Martel and St. Denis?

In the most polite way possible, shoot Martel and St. Denis into the sun.

 

[Guadana]

If some devils fans hate Zacha and think he is passanger and it`s bad and make him near to useless, they should start to hate Holtz before game one. Zacha is a selky trophy candidate, 5on5 beast and every second worker in compare to Holtz.
Coaches should use the strengths of the players, compensate for the weaknesses, select combinations and organize the game accordingly. Sometimes you need to change players for certain tasks, find more suitable candidates. Especially for a player like Zaсha, there is a lot of work in the squad. And at the moment, Zaсha is a part of great chemistry duo, looks like a well-functioning link, rightfully taking his place and doing his job well. In accordance with his task and, most importantly, his salary.

 

[MauDevils]

will ruff be the coach next season.. or did he have 1 year deal ?

Good question and I don't think we know?

Fitzgerald also only had a 1 year GM deal, so that's up in the air as well.

 

[TheDuke93]

If some devils fans hate Zacha and think he is passanger and it`s bad and make him near to useless, they should start to hate Holtz before game one. Zacha is a selky trophy candidate, 5on5 beast and every second worker in compare to Holtz.
Coaches should use the strengths of the players, compensate for the weaknesses, select combinations and organize the game accordingly. Sometimes you need to change players for certain tasks, find more suitable candidates. Especially for a player like Zaсha, there is a lot of work in the squad. And at the moment, Zaсha is a part of great chemistry duo, looks like a well-functioning link, rightfully taking his place and doing his job well. In accordance with his task and, most importantly, his salary.

Eh these are things he can work on and be instilled into him. If Holtz is still that bad in the defensive zone were you are comparatively calling Zacha a selke winner, which is laughable because Holtz chips the puck off the glass, in 7 years we can revisit this. Holtz ceiling is way higher then Zacha's and that is by no means doing disservice to Zacha. Lets see how Zacha does next year compared to how Holtz does 7 years in before we make any big claims about either player. Also I don't think anyone can watch Zacha and not see he is doing a lot more things at a higher level this season. Most people that are saying Zacha is just bad this season are probably trolling to some extent. But it is a very real possibility he comes back next year and only puts up 40 points so lets not crown him yet.

 

[MadDevil]

Good question and I don't think we know?

Fitzgerald also only had a 1 year GM deal, so that's up in the air as well.

Somebody on another forum mentioned that Larry Brooks dropped something in a column about the Devils possibly looking for a younger coach to lead the kids, but Brooks is often full of shit so it's probably just BS.

 

[Eggtimer]

Reference was made a few years ago to Pavel struggling with being away from his father, who was his biggest inspiration and confidence booster. Hynes' usage of him only compounded on that situation.

I see confidence in him that I didnt see before minus spurts. Spurts in which he usually scored a highlight-ish reel goal or made a crisp pass.

I think confidence plays a far larger role in Zacha’s game than people think. With some confidence and more trust / bigger role given to him by Ruff, it looks like he is actually having fun and just going out and playing his game vs. always worrying about making the “correct / safe “ play,

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yfw Mark Recchi is named head coach

 

[billingtons ghost]

If some devils fans hate Zacha and think he is passanger and it`s bad and make him near to useless, they should start to hate Holtz before game one. Zacha is a selky trophy candidate, 5on5 beast and every second worker incompare to Holtz.
Coaches should use the strengths of the players, compensate for the weaknesses, select combinations and organize the game accordingly. Sometimes you need to change players for certain tasks, find more suitable candidates. Especially for a player like Zaсha, there is a lot of work in the squad. And at the moment, Zaсha is a part of great chemistry duo, looks like a well-functioning link, rightfully taking his place and doing his job well. In accordance with his task and, most importantly, his salary.

This guy gets it.

I'm unsure why we are now in the habit of spending 10 pages daily complaining about how bad our leading scorer is, and how much we should move him and how much he is like Johnsson. (LMFAO)

 

[Guadana]

Eh these are things he can work on and be instilled into him. If Holtz is still that bad in the defensive zone were you are comparatively calling Zacha a selke winner, which is laughable because Holtz chips the puck off the glass, in 7 years we can revisit this. Holtz ceiling is way higher then Zacha's and that is by no means doing disservice to Zacha. Lets see how Zacha does next year compared to how Holtz does 7 years in before we make any big claims about either player. Also I don't think anyone can watch Zacha and not see he is doing a lot more things at a higher level this season. Most people that are saying Zacha is just bad this season are probably trolling to some extent. But it is a very real possibility he comes back next year and only puts up 40 points so lets not crown him yet.

You continue to look at the question from your own angle. I do not see the Holtz problem in the above description. If he can do the job he's supposed to do well, he'll be a useful hockey player. And it does not matter what kind of ceiling we imagine, and how bad or good he will look in defensive zone in compare to Zacha.
Clubs are paid a salary to players for performing assigned work. Work even on the ice is different for everyone. And only the tasks and their performance in accordance with the salary determines the player. And not your wishlist, or some other forum writer with his own idea of the ideal Zacha, which Zacha does not match.