Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[TBF1972]

That is sort of an extension of thinking the Devils need 2 elite goalies.

When do the Devils stop drafting goalies? If Blackwood is only league average next year do the Devils than draft the top goalie prospect again next season?

When can you stop drafting goalies with high picks? Apparently, for some, it is not when you have a 23 year old goalie off to a good start to his career

Never.

Or at least they should invest draft capital in every position, all the time. Or would you say they shouldn't draft Byfield, if he is available at 7, because they already have Hischier, Hughes, Zacha and McLeod?
Using a simple draft value chart:

Round	Pick	DCap
1	1-10	10
1	11-20	9
1	21-31	8
2	32-46	7
2	47-62	6
3	any	5
4	any	4
5	any	3
6	any	2
7	any	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

since 2015 New Jersey invested a total of 180 draft capital (DCap) and spent it as follows:

C	R	L	D	G
67	30	14	49	20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So most of it (61.7%) went into the forward crew, only 27.2% went towards the D and 11.1% for the G position. If you use an active roster of 23 players (14 forwards, 7 defenders and 2 goalies), you would ideally spend for forwards 60.8%, for defenders men 30.4% and for goalies 8.7% of your draft capital. Obviously the 1C and the 14th forward shouldn't carry the same weight and I think we would quickly agree, that the back-up goaltender is more important than the the forwards #13 and #14.
There were also players traded for or by using draft capital or other players, but no transaction included a goalie. The Corey trade aside, there was basically zero investment into the goalie position before MBW pick.

The 2018/19 season was destroyed by injuries and a lack of competence between the pipe. The 2019/20 was destroyed by horrible goal tending to start the season and incompetent coaching. MBW and the coaching change wasn't enough to salvage the season. Looking at those circumstances I would come to the conclusion to invest more not less into the goalie position. If you start with Askarov this season, drafting highly regarded goalies in the next few drafts, trade for or sign more competent goalies, I don't care. But banking the next few years on a healthy and good performing MBW with zero hedging sounds like a recipe for disaster, as we witnessed the last two seasons.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Regarding Pagnotta. He didn’t drop a bomb or go out on a limb.

Player and Team are discussing numbers.... wow. That’s the agents job and the team better at least know. Say the player didn’t want to leave and was willing to give a huge discount, well that may change our decision.

My 4th Period Experience was my friend sending me a link so I checked out the website for a month or so and every single day it had a new made up rumor of a big name player on the block. So I stopped going to that site.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Blackwood IS elite?

where did I say that?

He is certainly not elite yet, but he is very good.

 

[Triumph]

The reason not to draft goalies high is not because you don't need goalies but because it is really challenging to sort out who the good goalies are when they're 18, even more so than forwards and defensemen. It feels like teams are getting better at this but also we've seen very few goalies taken high in the last decade.

This draft is not like other drafts, teams are going to have some more information, though it will be tough comparing guys who have begun their 2020-21 season with those who have not.

 

[MartyOwns]

there is certainly evidence to suggest you can get above average goaltending in places other than the first round (as well as evidence to suggest you can’t) but objectively speaking it’s a bit foolish to say “don’t ever draft (insert position) in the (insert number) round”. there are exceptions to every rule, and from everything i’ve read on askarov (and the little i’ve seen) this would be a situation where you make an exception. i wouldn’t be shocked if he was a top 10 pick

 

[Nubmer6]

there is certainly evidence to suggest you can get above average goaltending in places other than the first round (as well as evidence to suggest you can’t) but objectively speaking it’s a bit foolish to say “don’t ever draft (insert position) in the (insert number) round”. there are exceptions to every rule, and from everything i’ve read on askarov (and the little i’ve seen) this would be a situation where you make an exception. i wouldn’t be shocked if he was a top 10 pick

Like any other pick, I think it's about risk vs reward.

Goalies seem to be less predictable, thus higher risk, but landing a franchise goaltender, especially a player of Askarov's stature, can be very high reward.

It may boil down to a team's appetite for risk, and the potential reward he offers over other available players at the draft slot. Also, if you already have a good goalie, the reward may not be as high for your team.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I think for some teams it absolutely might make sense to take a goalie in the 1st round

I don't think we are one of those teams

 

[Nubmer6]

I think for some teams it absolutely might make sense to take a goalie in the 1st round

I don't think we are one of those teams

If he dropped to 20 I think I'd have to take him. His reported upside is too high to pass over just because we already have a viable goalie.

It kind of like if we had won the second or third pick in the lottery. You don't pass Byfield or Stutzle over just cause he's a center and we have two already.

 

[NJDevs26]

I’d take him at 18, and I’m generally not in the draft goalie in the first round camp. I just wouldn’t take him at 7 or trade up from 18 for him.

 

[Ol Dirty Bstrd]

Scanning through the free agent list on TSN and it’s not a very promising crop. Here are the names that interest me, with a gap to separate tiers. I tried to keep it somewhat realistic so I left guys like Hall and Pietrangelo out.

Forward:

Toffoli
Dadonov
Hoffman

Haula
Granlund
Smith


Defense:

Dillon
Vatanen
Brodie
Tanev

DeMelo
Gudas


Pretty slim pickings, especially on defense. Makes it even worse that everyone besides Dillon on that list is a RD. I could see us be interested in someone like Maata (meh) if he’s not qualified. He’s better than Mueller at least (low bar I know).

At forward if we don’t get one of the big guns I think Haula or Smith would be decent additions, especially if they’re on contracts that would allow us to flip them for assets at the deadline. I like Granlund as a bounce back candidate but he seems like more of what we have (small, pass first). Athanasiou probably won’t be qualified but I think he’d be a terrible fit with Hughes so I’m not that interested.

In net I’d be happy with Talbot or Greiss to play the 1B role. Khudobin is probably a pipe dream at this point. Cory needs to be bought out or buried as the #3

 

[None Shall Pass]

I think for some teams it absolutely might make sense to take a goalie in the 1st round

I don't think we are one of those teams

I'd say we are one of those teams. We have no goalies with high upside in the system. Schmid is an extreme wild card and probably the best one we have waiting.

I wouldn't take a goalie with our highest pick, and really I wouldn't with the other picks, but if we did with 18 or 20 I'd at least see the logic in it.

 

[Cheddabombs]

We should be taking the BPA regardless of position. At 18, if Askarov is there, he would almost certainly be the BPA.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

We should be taking the BPA regardless of position. At 18, if Askarov is there, he would almost certainly be the BPA.

Unless NJ scouts really think his jittery feet are a concern as he progresses.

 

[My3Sons]

Scanning through the free agent list on TSN and it’s not a very promising crop. Here are the names that interest me, with a gap to separate tiers. I tried to keep it somewhat realistic so I left guys like Hall and Pietrangelo out.

Forward:

Toffoli
Dadonov
Hoffman

Haula
Granlund
Smith


Defense:

Dillon
Vatanen
Brodie
Tanev

DeMelo
Gudas


Pretty slim pickings, especially on defense. Makes it even worse that everyone besides Dillon on that list is a RD. I could see us be interested in someone like Maata (meh) if he’s not qualified. He’s better than Mueller at least (low bar I know).

At forward if we don’t get one of the big guns I think Haula or Smith would be decent additions, especially if they’re on contracts that would allow us to flip them for assets at the deadline. I like Granlund as a bounce back candidate but he seems like more of what we have (small, pass first). Athanasiou probably won’t be qualified but I think he’d be a terrible fit with Hughes so I’m not that interested.

In net I’d be happy with Talbot or Greiss to play the 1B role. Khudobin is probably a pipe dream at this point. Cory needs to be bought out or buried as the #3

You've got some other guys that might be good targets like Carson Soucy, Nathan Beaulieu, Erik Gustafsson, and maybe Barrie or Ceci if they don't get good offers. At least those guys are listed on cap friendly. Not sure if any of them are likely to extend where they are right now.

 

[SYWTom]

You've got some other guys that might be good targets like Carson Soucy, Nathan Beaulieu, Erik Gustafsson, and maybe Barrie or Ceci if they don't get good offers. At least those guys are listed on cap friendly. Not sure if any of them are likely to extend where they are right now.

I’d take Barrie as a reclamation project on a 1 year deal. Worst case maybe he plays well enough to flip at deadline. Just saying we should be looking at getting draft capital from a weird UFA market.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Unless NJ scouts really think his jittery feet are a concern as he progresses.

I don't see why they would, I see that as just his style of play (which works for him) rather than a potential hindrance.

 

[Nubmer6]

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

 

[Zippy316]

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

I wouldn’t mind this if the staff thinks he can still play. Could play that role and first unit PK pretty well.

Only issue here is internal budgets. Cap dump market is going to be very interesting this year since a lot of teams are likely to try and cut costs due to lost revenues especially if the season starts with no fans.

 

[Bleedred]

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

Oh my, I hope not. He’s the biggest anchor in Florida’s inability to really capture a cup. And they just got Hornqvist yesterday (Another shrewd move there for whoever the new GM is or whoever is running things), so they’re really gonna be a powerhouse if we help them get rid of him.

But on a serious note, I don’t think we can use him. He’s absolutely shot at this point. He might not even be better than Mirco Mueller at this stage. We should be able to get a pretty decent player or pick for taking him on.

Yet another failed stupid UFA move by the shrewdest (former) general manager in the game.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

nah...I think they are going to buy him out anyways

 

[Ol Dirty Bstrd]

You've got some other guys that might be good targets like Carson Soucy, Nathan Beaulieu, Erik Gustafsson, and maybe Barrie or Ceci if they don't get good offers. At least those guys are listed on cap friendly. Not sure if any of them are likely to extend where they are right now.

Hard pass on Beaulieau and Ceci. Gustafson and Barrie aren’t really what we need but if the price is right they could make sense. Soucy could work if we go bargain shopping but I’m not sure if he’s actually any good.

 

[MikeyFlynn]

Would you guys trade Severson, 18th overall, and 20th overall for Mitch Marner

 

[Forge]

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

No. 3rd pair d-men are easy enough to obtain, and likely don't cost as much. I have no real interest right now in taking on overpaid vets for small sweeteners.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

You've got some other guys that might be good targets like Carson Soucy, Nathan Beaulieu, Erik Gustafsson, and maybe Barrie or Ceci if they don't get good offers. At least those guys are listed on cap friendly. Not sure if any of them are likely to extend where they are right now.

Soucy is a very underrated target, in my view. From what I've heard, he's very reliable defensively, great skater, and can get hot offensively. Looks like he broke out for 8 points in 12 games in December. He likely would've been given a bigger role, were it not for Suter and Brodin.

I'd stay away from Gustafsson. Someone is going to pay him handsomely for that 60-point season last year, and it'll become a Gostisbehere-level albatross within a year or two.

Would you guys consider taking on the last 2 years of Stralman's contract? I think he's still an NHL quality defenseman (albeit over-used and overpaid). He may be a viable option for RD3 to be paired with Butcher or Smith, and could possibly net us a small sweetener.

Two years left at $5.5M is pretty rough, considering the player. I'd stay away.

On a personal note, I find Florida's mess to be beyond hilarious, and I'd rather let them sit in their own shit.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Would you guys trade Severson, 18th overall, and 20th overall for Mitch Marner

Nope. We should be adding to Severson from our existing defense not taking away. This would also use up a lot of assets that we could've otherwise used to upgrade our defense. The idea would be, if this were to happen, that we could suddenly trade some a forward or two to upgrade the defense. But then we'd both need to upgrade the defense as well as replace Severson, with who exactly? Bratt?