Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Guttersniped]

The better analogue to Askarov is Samsonov rather than a someone who was more of a project taken in the 4th round. Samsonov made it to NA in three years after he was drafted and some people are wondering if Askarov can make the jump even sooner. (That seems very ambitious but who knows.)

It’s true, ever since UFA age dropped to 27 an argument can be made that elite skaters, particularly forwards, are more valuable because they have the ability to make the jump to the pros faster than goalies. It might be debatable how many of the skaters that will be left by 7OA can make the leap and contribute significantly before Askarov was in NA. I don’t think he’s a horrifically bad choice but the team will take a skater. There’s going to be a skater they prefer left, they will draft him, we will get to stop talking about this (other than as a fond memory or regret) and that’s that.

I don’t understand the trading up thing. With what? Trade the two 1sts for a higher 1st and a 2nd? If it’s get a 2nd first and use it to trade up with one of our 1sts, I’m not sure how to get the 2nd and please don’t say “take a cap dump”.

 

[Brodeur]

Someone's got to do an analysis of the success rate of 1st round goalie selections over the last 10 or 15 years that include bust, success, and superstar rates compared to rates for forwards and D. I would find it very interesting to have the numbers confirm or deny my gut feeling on goalies and D being harder to predict than forwards.

The thing for me is that the connotation of "first round" can get misused, like to me there's a stark difference between a guy taken in the top 5 versus a guy taken in the 20-30 range. I had a puzzling discussion last year with some Kings fans who were vehemently against using the #22 pick on Spencer Knight. One poster argued that the leading scorers always guys like Crosby, Kane, MacKinnon, etc but somehow he equated blue chip guys like that to the usual crop available at #22 simply because they're all "first rounders."

Since the lockout / change of UFA age, Price has been the only goalie since 2005 to go in the top 10. Most people don't like to acknowledge that there's quite a bit of replacement level forwards/D taken in the latter stages of the first round in most drafts.

2005
--------
5. Carey Price (next five non-goalie picks: Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon [RIP], plus Anze Kopitar who curiously slipped)

22. Tuukka Rask (Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Pelech)

2006
---------
11. Jonathan Bernier (Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Ty Wishart, Trevor Lewis)

15. Riku Helenius (Wishart, Lewis, Chris Stewart, Mark Mitera, David Fischer)

23. Semyon Varlamov (Dennis Persson, Patrik Berglund, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno, Chris Summers)

26. Leland Irving (Vishnevskiy, Foligno, Summers, Matt Corrente, Tomas Kana)

2008
----------
18. Chet Pickard (Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma)

30. Thomas McCollum (Slava Voynov, Phil McRae, Nic Deschamps, Corey Trivino, Cody Goloubef) -- note: Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen picked #31 and #34

2010
-----------
11. Jack Campbell (Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Jaden Schwartz, Derek Forbort, Vladimir Tarasenko)

27. Mark Visentin (Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem, Brock Nelson, Tyler Pitlick, Jared Knight) -- note: Visentin was a super reach

2012
------------
19. Andrei Vasilevskiy (Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski, Olli Maatta, Michael Matheson, Jordan Schmaltz)

24. Malcolm Subban (Schmaltz, Brendan Gaunce, Henrik Samuelsson, Brady Skjei, Stefan Matteau)

2015
------------
22. Ilya Samsonov (Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Jack Roslovic, Noah Juulsen, Jacob Larsson)

It's a bit of an unscientific approach to list it out like this, but I think it can demonstrate that there's not always a treasure trove of talent available among the F/D.

Hopefully the talent available at 18/20 will be closer to 2015 than say 2012.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

The thing for me is that the connotation of "first round" can get misused, like to me there's a stark difference between a guy taken in the top 5 versus a guy taken in the 20-30 range. I had a puzzling discussion last year with some Kings fans who were vehemently against using the #22 pick on Spencer Knight. One poster argued that the leading scorers always guys like Crosby, Kane, MacKinnon, etc but somehow he equated blue chip guys like that to the usual crop available at #22 simply because they're all "first rounders."

Since the lockout / change of UFA age, Price has been the only goalie since 2005 to go in the top 10. Most people don't like to acknowledge that there's quite a bit of replacement level forwards/D taken in the latter stages of the first round in most drafts.

2005
--------
5. Carey Price (next five non-goalie picks: Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon [RIP], plus Anze Kopitar who curiously slipped)

22. Tuukka Rask (Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Pelech)

2006
---------
11. Jonathan Bernier (Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Ty Wishart, Trevor Lewis)

15. Riku Helenius (Wishart, Lewis, Chris Stewart, Mark Mitera, David Fischer)

23. Semyon Varlamov (Dennis Persson, Patrik Berglund, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno, Chris Summers)

26. Leland Irving (Vishnevskiy, Foligno, Summers, Matt Corrente, Tomas Kana)

2008
----------
18. Chet Pickard (Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma)

30. Thomas McCollum (Slava Voynov, Phil McRae, Nic Deschamps, Corey Trivino, Cody Goloubef) -- note: Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen picked #31 and #34

2010
-----------
11. Jack Campbell (Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Jaden Schwartz, Derek Forbort, Vladimir Tarasenko)

27. Mark Visentin (Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem, Brock Nelson, Tyler Pitlick, Jared Knight) -- note: Visentin was a super reach

2012
------------
19. Andrei Vasilevskiy (Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski, Olli Maatta, Michael Matheson, Jordan Schmaltz)

24. Malcolm Subban (Schmaltz, Brendan Gaunce, Henrik Samuelsson, Brady Skjei, Stefan Matteau)

2015
------------
22. Ilya Samsonov (Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Jack Roslovic, Noah Juulsen, Jacob Larsson)

It's a bit of an unscientific approach to list it out like this, but I think it can demonstrate that there's not always a treasure trove of talent available among the F/D.

Hopefully the talent available at 18/20 will be closer to 2015 than say 2012.

Great post. Also I would think a skater drafted in the 20's is more likely to play more games but not be an impact player. As time moves forward there will be more and better studies that look at how much a player contributes as opposed to if they just play games. You do not win hockey games by showing up at the rink - you win them by helping improve your team goal differential. Here is the one I usually use. Is anyone aware of other studies like this?

https://originalsixanalyticsdotcom....velopment-by-draft-round-orgsixanalytics3.pdf

Anyway with respect to Askarov and the Devils this is just a theoretical point. Highly doubtful they will select him at 7 and unlikely he is there at 18.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

hadn't seen this posted:

 

[Forge]

hadn't seen this posted:

Curious if he's just regurgitating the athletic's position, or it's actually something more than that now

 

[RSeen]

hadn't seen this posted:

Not sure he is reliable. Hopefully it isn't true.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Not sure he is reliable. Hopefully it isn't true.

Why would you hope we weren't trying to extend Palms?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Not sure he is reliable. Hopefully it isn't true.

why would you hope that isn't true....? Weird take.

 

[MartyOwns]

Not sure he is reliable. Hopefully it isn't true.

we’re going to need someone to score goals

 

[TrufleShufle]

we’re going to need someone to score goals

Why? We could trade him for a pick, and use that pick to pick a player, and in 3-5 years, that player might score some goals. Palms hasn't scored any goals since what? March? Who's to say he still even can?

 

[Triumph]

Fourth Period is not a reliable source

 

[ScottyK]

Fourth Period is not a reliable source

We all said that when the inital hall report from them dropped too.

David certainly isn't a Dreger or a Lebrun but he's been around long enough and has been involved enough TFP does get some legit info.

 

[Billdo]

We all said that when the inital hall report from them dropped too.

David certainly isn't a Dreger or a Lebrun but he's been around long enough and has been involved enough TFP does get some legit info.

He's on the NHL Network channel on Sirius on a regular, if not daily, basis. He's got some merit. He's not a big gun like McKenzie, Lebrun, etc but he's not a hack like Incarcerated Bob or Eklund.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

We all said that when the inital hall report from them dropped too.

David certainly isn't a Dreger or a Lebrun but he's been around long enough and has been involved enough TFP does get some legit info.

What did they say about Hall?

 

[Cheddabombs]

Fourth Period is not a reliable source

He's no McKenzie or Lebrun but the guy clearly has connections.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

He did break the Tavares to the Leafs signing.

 

[Triumph]

He's on the NHL Network channel on Sirius on a regular, if not daily, basis. He's got some merit. He's not a big gun like McKenzie, Lebrun, etc but he's not a hack like Incarcerated Bob or Eklund.

He exists between the two. I would still argue that 'not reliable' is where he belongs. But he's not in the outright fraud camp like the latter two.

He did break the Tavares to the Leafs signing.

Just because people break one story does not mean that they are connected all over. Eklund broke Richards to the Kings in 2011 which everyone laughed at because they had just traded Carter the same day. It is possible for people who traffic in rumors like this to have a few legitimate sources.

 

[Guttersniped]

Curious if he's just regurgitating the athletic's position, or it's actually something more than that now

It’s the same story but it could be from a different source, the Athletic mentioned the team was talking to his agent. The Athletic really highlighted the preliminary aspect but teams and players’ agents don’t talk as much as you think they would unless they’re actively discussing a deal.

Who know’s when the TDL will be and what we could get. The only thing that would piss me off would if the team gave him a generous extension but I can’t see how that’s possible in this mess.

 

[NJDevs26]

Eklund randomly broke Volchenkov (I think) to the Devils, or some other semi-big FA signing we had lol, anyone can get lucky or have one source for some things.

 

[Bleedred]

I think Eklund may have broken the end of the 2013-2013 lockout the night before it ended, although other people were also saying a deal was very close.

I remember Bob McKenzie personally crediting Eklund on Twitter that morning.

Eklund also kept calling Matt Moulson back to the Sabres in UFA when that seemed extremely laughable and unbelievable at the time.

The problem with Eklund is that he literally has a new rumor every single day about something big happening or someone significant being on the move or some deal between two teams that never wind up making a deal of any kind. And that’s how he makes his money, by getting all these clicks.

 

[njdevils1982]

that guy is still alive?

im being serious…..i havent heard shit until today for a long time about this dbag

there should be a ban on mentioning his name here (something i know ive said before)

f***!

 

[R8Devs]

Lebrun pretty much said the same thing that Pagnotta did so I don’t think that’s new info. Although, if you are going to trade him and other teams think that negotiations broke off between the team and the player the Devils would lose some leverage

 

[MadDevil]

He did break the Tavares to the Leafs signing.

Throw enough shit at the wall and something will stick eventually.

 

[TBF1972]

yeah, we don't need 2 elite goalies. That is silly.

Blackwood IS elite?

 

[Better Call Sal]

Yeah I don’t think Pagnotta is reliable either but if it was already something mentioned by LeBrun, that’s good to know.

It makes all the sense in the world to extend Palms. Let him be the leader going forward for the young guys.