Devils 2019-20 team discussion (news and notes) - part XIII

[Triumph]

As for Melchiori, Colton White is not an NHL defenseman - the Devils are getting outshot absurdly with him on the ice, both this year and last - and I think he might take White's place.

 

[Forge]

You are giving up the biggest contract leverage which is the ability to sign on July 1 a year before his contract expires.

But we shouldn't need that if he's going to take a home town discount because he's from New Jersey and all that noise.

I think that there is too much wishing and hoping either way, to be honest. So I'll cash out my value now, because that is real. His value decreases from here, also real. Short term, he neither makes or breaks this team because this team sucks.

 

[Triumph]

But we shouldn't need that if he's going to take a home town discount because he's from New Jersey and all that noise.

No, that's part of the tacit agreement. Palmieri doesn't get as big a payout than if he signed UFA somewhere, but he doesn't take the risk of going without a contract.

 

[beekay414]

Hoffman has no reason to sign here. He's never played here and he is not from around here. He would likely only come if the Devils were offering the most years and/or the most dollars.

Palmieri has played here and is from around here. What you hope as a GM is that he will take somewhat of a discount on years because there's a kind of mutually assured destruction with him leaving as a hometown player. If you can get him to sign something like 4/28, then you can retain him without enormous risk while still keeping the value in the first two years.

Again, the point is being missed. Even if Hoffman would sign here for what Palms is expected to get, you still don't do it. Four years, $28 Million isn't a home town discount either. If we're so concerned about development and keeping Palms as a locker room guy, you extend him for 2 years with high AAV. I'm not willing to extend him beyond that.

It is what it is at this point. We extend him for 5 years term at expected value, then we're half assing this rebuild again. There's nothing more to it.

 

[Forge]

No, that's part of the tacit agreement. Palmieri doesn't get as big a payout than if he signed UFA somewhere, but he doesn't take the risk of going without a contract.

That's assuming he's not okay with that. He's underpaid and has been a while. Dude could easily be looking for a big payday to cash out his career.

I don't know...there's a lot of hoping and guessing and I'm just not about that (in regards to what Palms could do) I mean, I'd take him on a 2 year deal when this one is up, and would overpay him for those 2 years, but I have no way of knowing if he'd sign that and I'm not willing to risk losing the value I have now. He's a depreciating asset. It's never a good idea to tie up more money and more term into that.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Again, the point is being missed. Even if Hoffman would sign here for what Palms is expected to get, you still don't do it. Four years, $28 Million isn't a home town discount either. If we're so concerned about development and keeping Palms as a locker room guy, you extend him for 2 years with high AAV. I'm not willing to extend him beyond that.

It is what it is at this point. We extend him for 5 years term at expected value, then we're half assing this rebuild again. There's nothing more to it.

4/28 is definitely a big discount. Palms can easily get 7 years north of 8 million per season on the open market, and thats all guaranteed.

 

[beekay414]

4/28 is definitely a big discount. Palms can easily get over 7 years north of 8 million per season on the open market, and thats all guaranteed.

lol he's not getting 7 years term with over $8 Million AAV. Nobody is signing Kyle Palmieri for that kind of money into his aged 37 season.

 

[NjDevsRR]

lol he's not getting 7 years term with over $8 Million AAV. Nobody is signing Kyle Palmieri for that kind of money into his aged 37 season.

???

Hayes got 7 years at 7.1 and Palms is vastly superior. Yes, Hayes the player and contract is a bit younger but someone will give that kind of money and term to Palms. GMs during FA are nuts.

 

[Forge]

4/28 is definitely a big discount. Palms can easily get 7 years north of 8 million per season on the open market, and thats all guaranteed.

Depends. Anders Lee signed for 7x7, and he'd be a comparable player at this point. So that could also be viewed as market rate. The term would be a discount at 4, but that's because Palms will already be past 30 and Lee signed on at his age 29 season. But contract are a bit hard to prognosticate given how many variables there are

But I have no desire to tie up 7m+ moving forward on the back end of Palms' career.

 

[Triumph]

Again, the point is being missed. Even if Hoffman would sign here for what Palms is expected to get, you still don't do it. Four years, $28 Million isn't a home town discount either. If we're so concerned about development and keeping Palms as a locker room guy, you extend him for 2 years with high AAV. I'm not willing to extend him beyond that.

It is what it is at this point. We extend him for 5 years term at expected value, then we're half assing this rebuild again. There's nothing more to it.

You're speaking in absolutes that are ridiculous. The return for Palmieri doesn't make or break this rebuild - whether the Devils keep him or don't can incrementally affect things, but it's only in outrageously unlikely scenarios that it really tips things one way or another (and that is basically they deal him and they draft a superstar with their 1st round pick [<5% chance], or somehow he basically goes into the toilet after signing a long-term contract.). The most likely outcome of a trade for the Devils, although not the majority of outcomes, is that they deal him for a pick and a prospect, and neither one makes it as an NHL regular.

When you go into rebuild fever, you start to lose sight of the reality which is that most prospects of a certain grade fail, and most late 1st round picks are not NHL successes. These things need to be kept in mind when thinking about how to best build a winning team.

 

[Triumph]

???

Hayes got 7 years at 7.1 and Palms is vastly superior. Yes, Hayes the player and contract is a bit younger but someone will give that kind of money and term to Palms. GMs during FA are nuts.

Hayes was 27 when he signed this contract, Palmieri will be 31 when he signs UFA. There's no way Palmieri gets Hayes years.

 

[beekay414]

???

Hayes got 7 years at 7.1 and Palms is vastly superior. Yes, Hayes the player and contract is a bit younger but someone will give that kind of money and term to Palms. GMs during FA are nuts.

Hayes is 3-4 years younger going into his deal and he plays on the dot. Kyle Palmieri is not getting 7 years/$56+ Million lol.

 

[Forge]

???

Hayes got 7 years at 7.1 and Palms is vastly superior. Yes, Hayes the player and contract is a bit younger but someone will give that kind of money and term to Palms. GMs during FA are nuts.

1, I don't know that Palms is "vastly superior", particularly when you account for the fact that Hayes is a center, Kills penalties, etc. Also, Hayes had just turned 27 when he signed his deal. That's a huge difference.

 

[Triumph]

That's assuming he's not okay with that. He's underpaid and has been a while. Dude could easily be looking for a big payday to cash out his career.

I don't know...there's a lot of hoping and guessing and I'm just not about that (in regards to what Palms could do) I mean, I'd take him on a 2 year deal when this one is up, and would overpay him for those 2 years, but I have no way of knowing if he'd sign that and I'm not willing to risk losing the value I have now. He's a depreciating asset. It's never a good idea to tie up more money and more term into that.

This, also, is ridiculous - it's often a good idea to tie up more money in a depreciating asset when the alternative is worse. Where the Devils are at, it becomes far more negligible, but the Devils are going to be free of the Zajac/Greene/Schneider horizon after this season and there are no long-term deals left. If they draft and trade well, they'll have plenty of space even after Hughes's 2nd contract.

 

[beekay414]

You're speaking in absolutes that are ridiculous. The return for Palmieri doesn't make or break this rebuild - whether the Devils keep him or don't can incrementally affect things, but it's only in outrageously unlikely scenarios that it really tips things one way or another (and that is basically they deal him and they draft a superstar with their 1st round pick [<5% chance], or somehow he basically goes into the toilet after signing a long-term contract.). The most likely outcome of a trade for the Devils, although not the majority of outcomes, is that they deal him for a pick and a prospect, and neither one makes it as an NHL regular.

When you go into rebuild fever, you start to lose sight of the reality which is that most prospects of a certain grade fail, and most late 1st round picks are not NHL successes. These things need to be kept in mind when thinking about how to best build a winning team.

Everybody here has been speaking in absolutes. It's nothing new. Welcome to the internet. There's just no value in major contracts to players in their aged 30+ seasons. Especially in our situation. Like Forge said, he's a depreciating asset after this contract. It's not worth the investment to give him that term and that money. It rarely ever is. So, yes, I'm taking the chance on the prospect(s) and pick(s) over the aging veteran not worth his deal every day of the week. The prospects and picks don't handicap you like an anchor contract does.

 

[awegrzyn]

Gallant is not a good coach. He never won anything, and has a history of being not liked. He is like Hynes a bit. No one is walking through walls for him. Peter DeBoer just showed Vegas was limping with Gallant. DeBoer is the only coach that took a team this year and improved. All other coach changes did not work out. Toronto, Nashville, Wild, Sharks and others did not improve. Only Vegas did so far.

NAS is fine, so is Bruce Boudreau. Problem is the roster in NJ.

Gallant is POPULAR because of what happened in Vegas. POPULAR does not mean GOOD. That was not coaching. That was "The Dirty Dozen" once in a life time moment due to 4 second lines.

 

[Forge]

Lol oh Lord

 

[beekay414]

This, also, is ridiculous - it's often a good idea to tie up more money in a depreciating asset when the alternative is worse. Where the Devils are at, it becomes far more negligible, but the Devils are going to be free of the Zajac/Greene/Schneider horizon after this season and there are no long-term deals left. If they draft and trade well, they'll have plenty of space even after Hughes's 2nd contract.

How is the alternative worse? We can't get much worse than we are now WITH the guy you want to extend for major money lol.

You don't invest major money in players on the wrong side of 30. It's that simple. I mean, unless you want to have to move assets to unload him down the line and have him have to waive his NTC so you're limited in what you can do.

There's simply no benefit to extending Palms long term. None.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

You're speaking in absolutes that are ridiculous. The return for Palmieri doesn't make or break this rebuild - whether the Devils keep him or don't can incrementally affect things, but it's only in outrageously unlikely scenarios that it really tips things one way or another (and that is basically they deal him and they draft a superstar with their 1st round pick [<5% chance], or somehow he basically goes into the toilet after signing a long-term contract.). The most likely outcome of a trade for the Devils, although not the majority of outcomes, is that they deal him for a pick and a prospect, and neither one makes it as an NHL regular.

When you go into rebuild fever, you start to lose sight of the reality which is that most prospects of a certain grade fail, and most late 1st round picks are not NHL successes. These things need to be kept in mind when thinking about how to best build a winning team.

First off, all prospects you get in trades are not created equal, so you can't say the "likely" outcome of a prospect until you know who you're talking about. From everything we're hearing is that if he's traded in a package involving a prospect, it's going to be a very very good prospect at the very least.

And even with the picks that might be involved, it's barely the way you describe, assuming that the pick is in this year's draft. You can make a reasonably accurate prediction as to where that pick is going to fall and who might be available when you pick.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Ok I will concede on the term because I thought Hayes was 29 when he signed, but he will definitely get something north of 8 million per season from someone.

 

[beekay414]

Depends. Anders Lee signed for 7x7, and he'd be a comparable player at this point. So that could also be viewed as market rate. The term would be a discount at 4, but that's because Palms will already be past 30 and Lee signed on at his age 29 season. But contract are a bit hard to prognosticate given how many variables there are

But I have no desire to tie up 7m+ moving forward on the back end of Palms' career.

And the moment Lee signed that deal, people laughed. Yet, it's cool if it's our guy. I don't get this forum lol.

 

[beekay414]

And before people think I do not like Palms and don't think he's good, I friggin' love the dude. I was geeked when that trade happened and I love having him here. The thing is, I stand by what I believe and I firmly believe contracts on the wrong side of 30 are very unwise unless the player is elite. That's the simple fact to this. Thus why I feel like his value to us comes from the return we can get right now. I get it if teams lowball us and we don't pull that trigger. I'm not saying you trade him just to trade him. Just to clear that stuff up.

 

[MauDevils]

So we're 6-3-1 in our last 10, that's not just playoff pace, but division winning pace (107pts), all this after trading away Hall, Coleman and Greene, having Vatanen injured, and our coach and gm fired. It makes no sense. This winning pace is dangerously making us a bubble team for this year, we better start playing Cory if we want to draft in the top10

Let's not pretend like that stretch is anything more than Blackwood standing on his head. In those games at ES we have been outshot 184-287 and high danger chances are 67-88.

We've been much better at limiting higher quality chances and special teams are improving, but we are still being outplayed by a large margin.

 

[Call Me Al]

we actually can be worse than what we have - our starting goalie actually has a very good record at 21-12-7. our backups have hardly won at all which takes us out of contention. This is with players getting traded and injuries. it’s not like the team is as far off as everyone thinks just because bad goaltending and coaching torpedoed the season in october and november. some trades make sense like getting the absolute peak value for coleman but you don’t move palmieri just because you can get some low percentage returns at this point

 

[beekay414]

you don’t move palmieri just because you can get some low percentage returns at this point

Again, not a single person is saying this.