Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part XVI

[filinski77]

Should I get my Kovalchuk jersey nameplate changed to Agostino now? It's been sitting in my closet for 5 years and hasn't moved.

No, the Kovalchuk one looks way better in your office!

 

[BahlDeep]

That's fair.

Peoples opinions of Sev's swing pretty wide. I think he's OK. I'd like to see him with a better partner for sure. Moore and old man Greene? Yeah, a better partner would be nice.

I mean most dman would look better with a better partner.

What is worrying is Severson hasn't been able to fix his OWN issues.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

The problem NJ will run into next season with two possibly impact rookies on defense is that Greene is going nowhere which means, to have two rookie LHD in the lineup they either slot 1st, 3rd, 1st 2nd or 2nd, 3rd with Greene still getting top minutes. I can't see Hynes doing any of those options with his job on the line by mid December next season.

 

[billingtons ghost]

frk was put on waivers today. i’d rather have him on our fourth line than some of the garbage we’ve trotted out

I would just so we could curse him out after games -

Frking frkhead. Make the frking play. You frking suck.

The possibilities are endless.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Zone start is just pure scraping of the NHL data. Take all the faceoffs a player is on the ice for, sort them by neutral zone/offensive zone/defensive zone, and there's zone start. The problem with this is that a player will sometimes be on for multiple faceoffs - all of those are 'zone starts' even though the shift didn't technically start with the 2nd faceoff.

I dont see how any of this is a "problem" with the stat. If a coach has defensive confidence in a player, he's going to put them out for more DZS. At 4 games into a season there wont be enough data, but if you look at those hundreds of data points deep into the season, it becomes clear who a coach thinks his best and worst defensive defensemen are. If you pick any team in the NHL, generally speaking you're going to see the same pattern, the best regarded defensemen will tend to have a solid > 50% DZS. Of course, really crappy teams will also have higher > 50% figures as well, but even then the relationship should hold, that on a crappy defensive team (like the Devils), the D that the coach relies on more defensively will have a solid DZS figure.

Additional to all of this, and to be used as more circumstantial evidence to my argument, why do you suppose Butcher is the only Devils defesenman who is never used while Shorthanded?

 

[Billdo]

I sure as **** do not trust Hynes and Nas to develop Smith, Davies or Walsh properly.

YUGE surprise

That's my initial instinct as well as I also like to gamble, but I'd want to lock him up for like 7 years and I just don't think he's earned a 4-5M AAV for that long. I'd almost give him a 1 year bridge to see if he can score 20 goals/50 points and then give him the big long-term deal. 2 years seems too risky as I feel he's getting close to breaking out and he's the type of player who will be really good once he finds consistency.

I'd do like a 6x4 if he'd sign it. I'm not sure he would but I think at the very least he's proven to be a strong 3C. If he pots 20 this year and has a bigger year the following two on a bridge then we are held over a barrel so to speak.

He might score 20 goals this season. He is only 9 away.

Honestly I would be more worried about getting burned on a bridge deal then getting burned on a long term one.

I've been saying this since the offseason with regard to 20 and ppl laughed. It still might not happen but I'm here for the gloating when it does.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Thinking about it more, Shero did give Severson his contract before he proved what he can be so he could do the same with Zacha if he continues to play well towards the end of this year.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Also looking at Winnipegs RFA situation, Maybe theres a chance we can trade Severson+ to them for Trouba.

 

[Triumph]

I dont see how any of this is a "problem" with the stat. If a coach has defensive confidence in a player, he's going to put them out for more DZS. At 4 games into a season there wont be enough data, but if you look at those hundreds of data points deep into the season, it becomes clear who a coach thinks his best and worst defensive defensemen are. If you pick any team in the NHL, generally speaking you're going to see the same pattern, the best regarded defensemen will tend to have a solid > 50% DZS. Of course, really crappy teams will also have higher > 50% figures as well, but even then the relationship should hold, that on a crappy defensive team (like the Devils), the D that the coach relies on more defensively will have a solid DZS figure.

Additional to all of this, and to be used as more circumstantial evidence to my argument, why do you suppose Butcher is the only Devils defesenman who is never used while Shorthanded?

This is what you take away from what I said? Re-read my post. I don't have the heart to post it again. You're talking about 4% of Butcher's shifts. Look at the other 96%. I don't care how much Butcher is used shorthanded.

 

[R8Devs]

I was just looking at Yak's insta and he seems to be good friends with Panarin. 4d chess by Ray

 

[devilsblood]

As a stand alone stat I do think zone starts are pretty flawed, or at least misleading.

But they are a pretty good indicator as to usage. A guy who get's a high percentage of o-zone starts is likely getting easy assignments all around. A guy who gets a ton of d-zone starts is likely getting the tough assigments.

 

[Better Call Sal]

 

[BenedictGomez]

As a stand alone stat I do think zone starts are a pretty flawed.

But they are a pretty good indicator as to usage. A guy who get's a high percentage of o-zone starts is likely getting easy assignments all around. A guy who gets a ton of d-zone starts is likely getting the tough assigments.

Which is exactly what I'm suggesting. It shows what the coaching staff thinks of a player defensively. As does their shorthanded usage.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Oh dear..... SMH

 

[devilsblood]

Which is exactly what I'm suggesting. It shows what the coaching staff thinks of a player defensively. As does their shorthanded usage.

As does PK time.

Now just because Butcher gets protected usage, does not mean he is not a good player. I think in that 3rd pair he is a legit weapon, he's an impact player in that role in a way most other guys would not be. Stick Greene there and he is not at 60% goals for.

And they have tried to expand Butcher's role, but even when they do it is in half steps. He has played a significant amount with Vats this season, but his o-zone starts are at 68% with Vats, by comparison with Lovejoy it was at 48%. Again on it's own, that may not say much, but we should also not say, oh he's now playing with Vat's thus he is getting legit 2nd pairing minutes. That was happening.

 

[mtnet]

#fast
#nerve-racking
#distorted

 

[None Shall Pass]

Cory gets the start tomorrow.

 

[haak84]

Cory gets the start tomorrow.

Heaven help him.

 

[devilsblood]

I can't say I've loved Zacha's play of late. He has been potting goals, but that just highlights one of his skills.

I thought there were other stretches, or at least individual games earlier this season, where he was straight dominant. Attacking the play, winning battles, controlling the puck. I'm not really seeing that right now.

Now he is clearly a very cerebral player, but maybe too much. Plays a very defensive game, and again maybe too much, so there are things I'm liking, I do like that he is scoring as I hope that jump starts other parts of his game.

But is this stretch a signal to me that he's taking that next step? Not really.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Heaven help him.

He'd be wise to hide a cyanide pill in his blocker.

 

[haak84]

He'd be wise to hide a cyanide pill in his blocker.

He’ll battle through it.

I can’t see the blackhawks and Patrick Kane scoring less than 5.

Welp they’ve scored 39 goals in their past 9 games. Lol this is going to be a blowout. They’ve been held to less than 3 goals 3 times in their last 16 games. Twice to the islanders and once to the bruins.

 

[Combat Koala]

At this point I don't really care how the season plays out, but if they're gonna enter full tank mode (and how could you not with some of the players in the lineup), I just hope the youngsters see lots of ice time and get on the score sheet. Especially Zacha. After an infuriating, disappointing and gutless first half he has seemed to start picking it up a bit. I've had the luxury of seeing a couple early weekend games this year and actually liked his performance in those said games. He needs to shoot more and use his size to his advantage. He can hold off defensemen and out muscle others if he wants to. I've definitely liked his PK'ing, that's for sure. Time to start proving people wrong. Please.

Next season feels so far away but I can't wait to see how the roster will look like in the season opener.

 

[Blender]

"Closing the gaps with speed" is code for "over committing and getting burned".

 

[Maine Fan]

Cory gets the start tomorrow.

Does it matter?

 

[devilsblood]

I mean most dman would look better with a better partner.

What is worrying is Severson hasn't been able to fix his OWN issues.

There are certainly parts of Sev's games one would have hoped he would have cleaned up by now.

But still, as you say any played looks better next to a good player as opposed to a not so good one.

So even if we say Sev's has warts, the fact that he has played with Moore and now an aging Greene(and he was actually much better with Moore) it's not really conducive to putting your best foot forward.

I'd love to see him carry a pair, and maybe that is out the window, but he has also not been put into the greatest of situations these past couple years.