Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part XVI

[Devilsfan992]

Why didn't Santini play yesterday? I know some people on here harp on him but everytime we've let up 6 or more goals he hasn't been in the line up.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Why didn't Santini play yesterday? I know some people on here harp on him but everytime we've let up 6 or more goals he hasn't been in the line up.

No clue, makes very little sense to be playing Gryba over him at this point but what do I know I think Severson isn't complete trash.

 

[Triumph]

If you havent noticed that Will Butcher is being intentionally "hidden" and "protected" by Hynes, you dont watch the game critically enough.

Which is fine, hockey's entertainment and all.

There's nothing quite like combining sanctimony with whatever this is. You talked about biases - have you considered that this is just confirmation bias because of last season? Butcher's good. He makes mistakes, but he is good. He can't be playing all the time against the other team's worst players, and he's not. Plus if Hynes is starting him a lot in the offensive zone that's almost certainly a mistake - he's tremendous at exiting the zone.

 

[BenedictGomez]

For those who dont realize Will Butcher is heavily protected by the coaching staff.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Why didn't Santini play yesterday? I know some people on here harp on him but everytime we've let up 6 or more goals he hasn't been in the line up.

Because Hynes/Nas are morons. Can't wait till Lovejoy is shipped off for future considerations/7th/waived so Santini can finally play consistently.

 

[OmNomNom]

For those who dont realize Will Butcher is heavily protected by the coaching staff.

though... i'd be curious to know how much % of butcher's TOI is on the PP

that could skew his oZS%

 

[BenedictGomez]

though... i'd be curious to know how much % of butcher's TOI is on the PP

that could skew his oZS%

Nope. That's an Even Strength stat I posted, so the PP time is irrelevant.



Though it might be instructive to see how often Butcher is trusted at playing shorthanded.

Hmmmm.......

 

[Billdo]

Maybe they're showcasing Gryba for a bag of puck or some clear tape.

 

[Triumph]

For those who dont realize Will Butcher is heavily protected by the coaching staff.

Do you know how zone start is calculated? Do you know how often players begin their shifts with a faceoff versus when they come off the bench?

Zone start is just pure scraping of the NHL data. Take all the faceoffs a player is on the ice for, sort them by neutral zone/offensive zone/defensive zone, and there's zone start. The problem with this is that a player will sometimes be on for multiple faceoffs - all of those are 'zone starts' even though the shift didn't technically start with the 2nd faceoff. What this means is that for players who ice the puck a lot their D-zone start will be inflated because of all the defensive zone faceoffs they're on the ice for. Likewise, a player like Butcher who actually does move the needle offensively, if he gets the Devils from the D-zone to the O-zone for a faceoff and stays on, that's 1 D zone start and 1 O zone start, whereas Hynes might pull Greene-Severson if they accomplish the same thing.

What's even more important is that the majority of shifts taken 5 on 5 in the NHL are from changing on the fly, and then there's also neutral zone faceoffs - shifts that begin with a faceoff compose a minority of shifts. Now when you're talking about the ratios you're talking about here - between 40 and 65% - you're not talking about a lot of shifts all things considered when you look at the rest of the shifts a player like Butcher takes. Here, you can look for yourself instead of posting smug gifs - Natural Stat Trick has the on the fly shift numbers and they dwarf all the other shifts. Butcher has a 56% O-zone start - the difference between him having a 56% O-zone start and a 40% O-zone start is 37 starts in the D zone versus the O-zone over the course of 53 games. He has over 1000 'starts' so far this season, and you're jumping up and down about 37 of them. So yeah, zone start matters a little bit, but zone-start adjust Butcher's numbers and they're still good, because he's good.

EDIT: Found better link

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

“Severson stinks, needs to be traded. Santini needs to be in, need more grit. We need more Mueller.”

 

[135ace]

So what do we do with Zacha? Do we bridge him? Do we try to lock him up long term? I'm thinking 1-2 year bridge to see some more consistency and then a long term contract at a fair cap hit before he hopefully explodes offensively.

 

[NJDevils#4]

I would not question anyone being on the block right now. This team is historically bad. I can't even watch the rest of this season. It's like watching the ending of Casino when Joe Pesci's brother's just being beaten to death with a bat.

 

[Cult of Hynes]

Because Hynes/Nas are morons. Can't wait till Lovejoy is shipped off for future considerations/7th/waived so Santini can finally play consistently.

Santini is just as bad as Lovejoy is lol. I'd rather give Murphy a look.

 

[MartyOwns]

So what do we do with Zacha? Do we bridge him? Do we try to lock him up long term? I'm thinking 1-2 year bridge to see some more consistency and then a long term contract at a fair cap hit before he hopefully explodes offensively.

long term. as long as he’s getting paid like a bottom 6 forward. he’s well worth that

 

[FooteBahl]

So what do we do with Zacha? Do we bridge him? Do we try to lock him up long term? I'm thinking 1-2 year bridge to see some more consistency and then a long term contract at a fair cap hit before he hopefully explodes offensively.

I’m a gambler, so I would overpay for a long term deal in hopes that it looks like an absolute steal later on.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

So what do we do with Zacha? Do we bridge him? Do we try to lock him up long term? I'm thinking 1-2 year bridge to see some more consistency and then a long term contract at a fair cap hit before he hopefully explodes offensively.

Bridge 100%, needs to show more over the next two years to earn a long term contract. 2 years around 2 mill.

 

[Cult of Hynes]

The problem I have with Severson is that he can be very selfish/lazy, always looking to fly the zone and just dogs it on back checks. On any other team he'd be stapled to the bench but in Hynes system he's allowed to do it, hell, he's probably encouraged to do it with impunity.

Is this the same Severson that Hynes has benched and scratched when worse defenseman on the team make bigger mistakes on more consistent basis?

 

[ScottyK]

Keith after the game last night lol

 

[OmNomNom]

Keith after the game last night lol

shortly after, he went into fetal position

 

[Stephen Gionta]

The Devils seem to play better when Santini is in the lineup

 

[Cult of Hynes]

I sure as f*** do not trust Hynes and Nas to develop Smith, Davies or Walsh properly.

 

[135ace]

I’m a gambler, so I would overpay for a long term deal in hopes that it looks like an absolute steal later on.

That's my initial instinct as well as I also like to gamble, but I'd want to lock him up for like 7 years and I just don't think he's earned a 4-5M AAV for that long. I'd almost give him a 1 year bridge to see if he can score 20 goals/50 points and then give him the big long-term deal. 2 years seems too risky as I feel he's getting close to breaking out and he's the type of player who will be really good once he finds consistency.

 

[Emperoreddy]

That's my initial instinct as well as I also like to gamble, but I'd want to lock him up for like 7 years and I just don't think he's earned a 4-5M AAV for that long. I'd almost give him a 1 year bridge to see if he can score 20 goals/50 points and then give him the big long-term deal. 2 years seems too risky as I feel he's getting close to breaking out and he's the type of player who will be really good once he finds consistency.

He might score 20 goals this season. He is only 9 away.

Honestly I would be more worried about getting burned on a bridge deal then getting burned on a long term one.

 

[MartyOwns]

frk was put on waivers today. i’d rather have him on our fourth line than some of the garbage we’ve trotted out

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

frk was put on waivers today. i’d rather have him on our fourth line than some of the garbage we’ve trotted out

I would not