Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) part V - OP warning

[Bleedred]

I think Santini has a spot on the future of this team. He will be a very solid bottom four defenseman IMO.

I think he can be a good solid bottom pairing guy, but if other guys pan out, there's eventually gonna be no long term spot for him. Guys like Walsh have a much higher ceiling than him, there's a probably a couple others with a higher ceiling than him (not that it means that it will be met) and I don't even think I need to say Ty Smith has a higher ceiling and is probably already better than him at this moment.

Greene is better (as of now he is), and that's one guy who probably won't be here in two years. Lovejoy hopefully won't be here after this year, but then you wanna get Smith up here soon, I would think? Butcher is already better than Santini and the ceiling is much higher. Severson is already galaxies better than Santini and the ceiling is astronomically higher. Mueller is already quite a bit better and I'd even say his ceiling is significantly higher. And this is coming from a guy who voted Santini as our best prospect over Pavel Zacha in 2015 (not one of my finer moments, but I thought he had more puck skills). Vatanen is a UFA, but I would think we'd want him back, unless he wants to go and if we lose him, we'd be pretty screwed to begin with.

So that doesn't leave very many spots, unless nobody currently past Ty Smith right now pans out. And I'm totally ignoring handedness for everyone while breaking this down.

Can't rule out a trade of some kind, but if a trade is made, it won't be for management to accommodate Santini. It will be to either improve other areas or to even upgrade on the defense.

 

[devilsblood]

I look more at relative corsi than actual corsi for/corsi against percentage and Butcher is a -0.8, which isn't terrible, but isn't great like it was last year.

I see his cf relative as -2.44, worst amonst top 6 d-men.

 

[devilsblood]

I think he can be a good solid bottom pairing guy, but if other guys pan out, there's eventually gonna be no long term spot for him. Guys like Walsh have a much higher ceiling than him, there's a probably a couple others with a higher ceiling than him (not that it means that it will be met) and I don't even think I need to say Ty Smith has a higher ceiling and is probably already better than him at this moment.

Greene is better (as of now he is), and that's one guy who probably won't be here in two years. Lovejoy hopefully won't be here after this year, but then you wanna get Smith up here soon, I would think? Butcher is already better than Santini and the ceiling is much higher. Severson is already galaxies better than Santini and the ceiling is astronomically higher. Mueller is already quite a bit better and I'd even say his ceiling is significantly higher. And this is coming from a guy who voted Santini as our best prospect over Pavel Zacha in 2015 (not one of my finer moments, but I thought he had more puck skills). Vatanen is a UFA, but I would think we'd want him back, unless he wants to go and if we lose him, we'd be pretty screwed to begin with.

So that doesn't leave very many spots, unless nobody currently past Ty Smith right now pans out. And I'm totally ignoring handedness for everyone while breaking this down.

Can't rule out a trade of some kind, but if a trade is made, it won't be for management to accommodate Santini. It will be to either improve other areas or to even upgrade on the defense.

You are not considering roles at all. Walsh might have much better offensive upside. Like Butcher and Smith, Walsh looks like an excellent pp guy, but a team only needs a couple of those, and even if his overall upside is higher(though if u think it's tough to compare an offensive d-man and an offensive d-man) you do need guys to defend, you need guys to play the pk, you need guys to play alongside those offensive players.

Edit: All that said, I think the team would like for Santini to take over the role Lovejoy has been playing. Hopefully be an upgrade, perhaps even more well rounded, and if he can, then I think, with Lovejoy a UFA, the path for Santini is pretty clear. And if the team is not confident that Santini can take over that role, then I think Lovejoy is back next year, even if it is only as a place holder as Santini continues to try and earn that spot.

 

[Nubmer6]

I think he can be a good solid bottom pairing guy, but if other guys pan out, there's eventually gonna be no long term spot for him. Guys like Walsh have a much higher ceiling than him, there's a probably a couple others with a higher ceiling than him (not that it means that it will be met) and I don't even think I need to say Ty Smith has a higher ceiling and is probably already better than him at this moment.

Greene is better (as of now he is), and that's one guy who probably won't be here in two years. Lovejoy hopefully won't be here after this year, but then you wanna get Smith up here soon, I would think? Butcher is already better than Santini and the ceiling is much higher. Severson is already galaxies better than Santini and the ceiling is astronomically higher. Mueller is already quite a bit better and I'd even say his ceiling is significantly higher. And this is coming from a guy who voted Santini as our best prospect over Pavel Zacha in 2015 (not one of my finer moments, but I thought he had more puck skills). Vatanen is a UFA, but I would think we'd want him back, unless he wants to go and if we lose him, we'd be pretty screwed to begin with.

So that doesn't leave very many spots, unless nobody currently past Ty Smith right now pans out. And I'm totally ignoring handedness for everyone while breaking this down.

Can't rule out a trade of some kind, but if a trade is made, it won't be for management to accommodate Santini. It will be to either improve other areas or to even upgrade on the defense.

I think that other than Walsh, we don't have a lot going on the the RD pipeline. We have to hope he pans out. On the other hand, I'm quite comfortable with Butcher on RD if needed. In fact, I felt he played better on the right than on the left last year.

 

[My3Sons]

You are not considering roles at all. Walsh might have much better offensive upside. Like Butcher and Smith, Walsh looks like an excellent pp guy, but a team only needs a couple of those, and even if his overall upside is higher(though if u think it's tough to compare an offensive d-man and an offensive d-man) you do need guys to defend, you need guys to play the pk, you need guys to play alongside those offensive players.

Edit: All that said, I think the team would like for Santini to take over the role Lovejoy has been playing. Hopefully be an upgrade, perhaps even more well rounded, and if he can, then I think, with Lovejoy a UFA, the path for Santini is pretty clear. And if the team is not confident that Santini can take over that role, then I think Lovejoy is back next year, even if it is only as a place holder as Santini continues to try and earn that spot.

I expected Santini to grab the RD3 role in camp and make Lovejoy expendable but he didn’t. I can’t fathom that. He’s a better skater than Lovejoy just as big and strong and more willing to engage physically. He may need more work on his positioning or maybe he’s got a problem thinking the game. That would be a shame. Hopefully he can take over the role next year.

 

[My3Sons]

at this point in Lovejoy's career, it doesn't matter how well he plays. Santini is a young guy for us with promise - he will get the start every time unless hes playing poorly. Lovejoy is playing, at most, for another contract as a reliable veteran 7th dman. Lovejoy is not included in the usual 'hes playing well you cant take him out' field, he could score a hat trick and be taken out next game. His job is to provide leadership and be available and ready when he's needed. Santini succeeding into a higher role is somethi this team needs more than Lovejoy, and that involves him playing over Ben

What sort of lunatic would even suggest Lovejoy could score a hat trick?

 

[devilsblood]

I expected Santini to grab the RD3 role in camp and make Lovejoy expendable but he didn’t. I can’t fathom that. He’s a better skater than Lovejoy just as big and strong and more willing to engage physically. He may need more work on his positioning or maybe he’s got a problem thinking the game. That would be a shame. Hopefully he can take over the role next year.

At the start of the year the team may have just wanted, given we had some question marks in the top 2 pairings, especially Mueller in that top pair, a stable veteran presence to rely on in that 3rd pairing.

And perhaps more importantly Lovejoy was excellent on the PK last year.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Listening in on my way to class, the Michael Kay Show had Boyle on for an interview. Nice to just hear them have anyone Devil related on, I know Don is a Devils fan but of course it's a Ranger station.

That said, it was a quality listen. Much of it we knew (who knows what the general public knew of his son's battle along with his own), but it was great to give him the platform to speak on everything. Glad we have a class act like him on a team with plenty of youngsters.

 

[Bleedred]

I see his cf relative as -2.44, worst amonst top 6 d-men.

This must also include special teams. I don't put much into special teams corsi. It's useful to look at, but at the end of the day, more of the game is played at even strength than any other time and the sample size of the game that's played on special teams is quite low. And I don't even think Butcher has played PK, when one of the other PK D-men hasn't been in the box serving a penalty.

These are the 5 on 5 results for the team

ANNDDDDD I don't know how to embed it from there, so just go to this and go to skater advanced statistics.

2018-19 New Jersey Devils Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[devilsblood]

This must also include special teams. I don't put much into special teams corsi. It's useful to look at, but at the end of the day, more of the game is played at even strength than any other time and the sample size of the game that's played on special teams is quite low. And I don't even think Butcher has played PK, when one of the other PK D-men hasn't been in the box serving a penalty.

These are the 5 on 5 results for the team

ANNDDDDD I don't know how to embed it from there, so just go to this and go to skater advanced statistics.

2018-19 New Jersey Devils Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Correct he doesn't play much PK, but plays a ton of PP, thus special teams would not drag down his #'s.

But I'm talking 5v5.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

edit:your link is saying just even strength? 4v4 and OT perhaps. Does it also include 6v5?

 

[AfroThunder396]

I wouldnt sit either. Noesen hasnt dont much to earn a spot over Dea and Anderson

I would agree, Noesen hasn't been good. He should sit. But I don't think the coaching staff would do that.

 

[devilsblood]

I would agree, Noesen hasn't been good. He should sit. But I don't think the coaching staff would do that.

Coaching staff has been pretty willing to sit Noesen, both last year and I believe this year as well.

 

[Bleedred]

Correct he doesn't play much PK, but plays a ton of PP, thus special teams would not drag down his #'s.

But I'm talking 5v5.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This is strange, because some of these deviate from what I'm seeing on hockey reference, but some of them are (or very near) the same.

Natural stat trick seems to have them being lower than hockey reference for many players. Nico is a +8.1 relative corsi on hockey reference, yet he's a +5.84 on natural stat trick. Hall is a +6.9 on hockey reference and a +5.73 on natural stat trick. Natural stat trick has Gryba at -15.80, while hockey referene gives him a bit more credit at -14.1. Hockey reference has Lovejoy as the worst relative corsi among D-men (not including Gryba and Santini, who played 2 games and part of 1 respectively) at -2.3 and behind Butcher, but natural stat trick has him at -1.79 and ahead of Butcher. Natural stat trick also makes Boyle looks quite a bit worse than hockey reference does. The orders on the team aren't too, too different, but the numbers do deviate a bit with both sites.

This right here is one flaw that needs to be worked out with corsi. How the numbers are different (but not my much) on different sources and not absolutes.

 

[devilsblood]

This is strange, because some of these deviate from what I'm seeing on hockey reference, but some of them are (or very near) the same.

Natural stat trick seems to have them being lower than hockey reference for many players. Nico is a +8.1 relative corsi on hockey reference, yet he's a +5.84 on natural stat trick. Hall is a +6.9 on hockey reference and a +5.73 on natural stat trick. Natural stat trick has Gryba at -15.80, while hockey referene gives him a bit more credit at -14.1. Hockey reference has Lovejoy as the worst relative corsi among D-men (not including Gryba and Santini, who played 2 games and part of 1 respectively) at -2.3 and behind Butcher, but natural stat trick has him at -1.79 and ahead of Butcher. Natural stat trick also makes Boyle looks quite a bit worse than hockey reference does. The orders on the team aren't too, too different, but the numbers do deviate a bit with both sites.

This right here is one flaw that needs to be worked out with corsi. How the numbers are different (but not my much) on different sources and not absolutes.

Just looking at the relative #'s you have for Nico, I think you are looking at even strength on reference but 5v5 on stat trick.

I'm sure even's includ 4v4 and 3v3, but does it include 6v5 when goalie is pulled?

If so an offensive player like Butcher's would raise in that situation, while a defensive player like Lovejoy's would fall.

 

[Bleedred]

Just looking at the relative #'s you have for Nico, I think you are looking at even strength on reference but 5v5 on stat trick.

I'm sure even's includ 4v4 and 3v3, but does it include 6v5 when goalie is pulled?

If so an offensive player like Butcher's would raise in that situation, while a defensive player like Lovejoy's would fall.

Ah, that's probably what it is then. Because 5 on 5 isn't necessarily even strength.

I would say 6 on 5 falls into the even strength category.

 

[Wingman77]

Maybe it was answered in the article but why is there a stuffed goat wearing a devils tube top dress?

I'm going to assume the team put that there given their constant reference to Marty as, in this generations speak, "The GOAT".

Or his kid or somebody gave it to him and he liked it enough to throw on his desk

Like I said it’s difficult to quantify.

But the flow of the game changes drastically when Schneider is in net. We’re constantly on the defensive because he can’t seem to trap pucks or control rebounds. We end up getting stuck in the defensive zone so often due to it and it takes a heroic effort from someone to get the puck into the offensive zone.

I’m big on momentum in games. Often times teams come in waves because you constantly have tired guys on the ice or guys step on into a defensive position. Too many times with Schneider we’re in that position because he doesn’t control the game at all. You end up with tired bodies for extended shifts that could be prevented or shifts where half of a line is on the ice and when the puck does get out it’s 1-on-5 waiting for guys to change. For the tired bodies part, it takes its toll on you as the game goes along.

When Schneider was saving everything, it was fine even with those issues. But now he’s letting in weak goals on top of it and he’s essentially useless.

When Kinkaid is in net, you hardly ever see any of what I listed happen. But it happens in every game with Schneider.

Puck handling.

Never a strong suit of Cory's, which we knew when we got him. Keith has always been an above average puck handler and is often out behind the net or in front of the goal line to get a jump start on the play. It helps as we know and saw for 21 years.

BTW, just our luck. Bratt and Santini on liquid diets this year, and we JUST traded away our Blender last year.

That Blender unnecessarily fell over too often.

What sort of lunatic would even suggest Lovejoy could score a hat trick?

Hey now, if Eric Boulton could score a hat trick (and then sign with the team that he scored it against the next season and not even record a single point), Ben Lovejoy can!!

 

[Jets012]

Yea Noesen has struggled this year, but he's also proven way more than guys like Dea/Anderson have.

I'm fine with Anderson playing since he's had a nice little game or two stretch, but Noesen legitimately was our best bottom 6 forward for the majority of last year and was a key reason we went on the playoff run. I'm not ready to sit him full-time because he was banged up and had a slow start to the season.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Anderson has played like 2 games, of course he hasn't proven much

 

[Jets012]

Anderson has played like 2 games, of course he hasn't proven much

Well yes of course, but it's the same argument for just scratching Noesen because he had a brief like 5 game bad stretch

Ideally I'd sit Boyle, but he's not going to

 

[Blender]

This is strange, because some of these deviate from what I'm seeing on hockey reference, but some of them are (or very near) the same.

Natural stat trick seems to have them being lower than hockey reference for many players. Nico is a +8.1 relative corsi on hockey reference, yet he's a +5.84 on natural stat trick. Hall is a +6.9 on hockey reference and a +5.73 on natural stat trick. Natural stat trick has Gryba at -15.80, while hockey referene gives him a bit more credit at -14.1. Hockey reference has Lovejoy as the worst relative corsi among D-men (not including Gryba and Santini, who played 2 games and part of 1 respectively) at -2.3 and behind Butcher, but natural stat trick has him at -1.79 and ahead of Butcher. Natural stat trick also makes Boyle looks quite a bit worse than hockey reference does. The orders on the team aren't too, too different, but the numbers do deviate a bit with both sites.

This right here is one flaw that needs to be worked out with corsi. How the numbers are different (but not my much) on different sources and not absolutes.

I'd recommend using Corsica for advanced stats. Corsica | Skater Stats

Butcher has a 5on5 relative corsi of -2.89. 2 best defensemen are Vatanen at 2.83 and Mueller at 2.4.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Well yes of course, but it's the same argument for just scratching Noesen because he had a brief like 5 game bad stretch

Ideally I'd sit Boyle, but he's not going to

He just had a hat trick 2 games ago ...

 

[Cage Helmet]

I’d sit Dea. Minor league scab scoring over his head. Good for penalty killing to rest some forwards. That’s all I got. And the weiner jokes.

 

[Blender]

Bratt being back is great news.

 

[My3Sons]

He just had a hat trick 2 games ago ...

He’s played better than I anticipated and while he has scored I would prefer that the team find someone with more skill for the power play.

 

[VoidCreature]

I don't know what this board's problem with Boyle is.

We roll out scrubtastic fourth liners like Stephen Gionta and a washed up Vernon Fiddler, guys who barely score enough goals to rub between them, for years, and when we finally get someone who can score 10+ from the bottom line all the talk is about how people want to scratch him.

Yes, his offense is inconsistent. He's a fourth liner. Not a top sixer.

The fact that he chips in enough offense to win you a game once in a while is freaking fantastic. Hell, he's second on the whole f***ing team in goals right now.