Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) part IV

[Blender]

So if we gave away 3 2nd round picks in the last year we gave up between a 20.1 and a 32.4 chance of getting a top 4 D dman or top 6 forward last year?

This is not how probability works, at all. It's not additive. We have 3 chances at a 6.7% to 10.8% chance of getting a top 6F/4D.

 

[JimEIV]

but using your coffee idea, just because i blew $100 on coffee in a month doesn't mean i didn't enjoy all 33 cups of my $3.33 coffee. it's a lot overall, but that doesn't make my past enjoyment nullified

you're enjoyment is irrelevant to whether or not if it was poor spending....If you bills are late every month and they are turning your lights out, your coffee spending is stupid regardless of how much you liked it.

 

[MartyOwns]

losing a couple games really makes a bunch of people here lose their minds huh?

we’ve lost more than a couple of games, and we’ve lost to teams we were supposed to be better than. we were just shut out. we’ve given up how many leads in the third? a guy we picked 3 years ago at #6 overall is playing in binghamton. schneider still hasn’t won a regular season game. bratt is past his timetable to return and could be dead for all we know. neither anderson nor seney has had an impact thus far. JQ can’t make a team with dea and stafford on it.

i think the panic is a bit ridiculous, but no need for the holier than thou condescension because we lost “a couple of games”.

 

[OmNomNom]

you're enjoyment is irrelevant to whether or not if it was poor spending....If you bills are late every month and they are turning your lights out, your coffee spending is stupid regardless of how much you liked it.

so you're saying we should've just hoarded all of our picks instead of swinging for the fences on players?

prospects are still prospects, no matter how you look at em. yeah, you could land a brayden point. but you still could end up with a connor chatham as well. grabner was supposed to make sense, as was johansson (and still could). we tried to sign maroon as well. things didn't pan out, so now we're gonna complain about our decisions? in context, the moves make sense, and i can't fault a GM for trying. it's not like he threw picks on nail yakupov or something

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

we’ve lost more than a couple of games, and we’ve lost to teams we were supposed to be better than. we were just shut out. we’ve given up how many leads in the third? a guy we picked 3 years ago at #6 overall is playing in binghamton. schneider still hasn’t won a regular season game. bratt is past his timetable to return and could be dead for all we know. neither anderson nor seney has had an impact thus far. JQ can’t make a team with dea and stafford on it.

i think the panic is a bit ridiculous, but no need for the holier than thou condescension because we lost “a couple of games”.

Why are you not criticizing the poster bringing up the Maroon, Grabner, etc trades? I wonder why?

Some of the posts the past few days have been ludicrous. No other way to really describe it.

 

[JimEIV]

This is not how probability works, at all. It's not additive. We have up 3 chances at a 6.7% to 10.8% chance of getting a top 6F/4D.

That was actually really stupid of me to say.

 

[JimEIV]

so you're saying we should've just hoarded all of our picks instead of swinging for the fences on players?

prospects are still prospects, no matter how you look at em. yeah, you could land a brayden point. but you still could end up with a connor chatham as well. grabner was supposed to make sense, as was johansson (and still could). we tried to sign maroon as well. things didn't pan out, so now we're gonna complain about our decisions? in context, the moves make sense, and i can't fault a GM for trying. it's not like he threw picks on nail yakupov or something

taking a consensus #1 and failing is better in my opinion than giving up assets for a rental when you fully know that you have no chance of making noise in the playoffs

 

[JimEIV]

math don't work that way, i don't think

I didn't think.

 

[MartyOwns]

Why are you not criticizing the poster bringing up the Maroon, Grabner, etc trades? I wonder why?

i try not to criticize posters in general, i’m not sure what you’re saying

Some of the posts the past few days have been ludicrous. No other way to really describe it.

i agree, but a lot of those were you taking something completely out of context (butcher’s trade value for example) and making a condescending comment about it, spiraling the topic into 2 pages of nonsense. or you evaluating people’s posts based on the person who is saying it rather than the value of what they’re saying. you do it a lot. i’m sure i do my share of stupid stuff too.. we can all understand that it’s going to be a long season if every loss ends in a pissing contest

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

taking a consensus #1 and failing is better in my opinion than giving up assets for a rental when you fully know that you have no chance of making noise in the playoffs

Id trade a 3rd for a playoff birth and experience for the team every time, hell keeping Hall happy for a third alone was worth it

 

[JimEIV]

Id trade a 3rd for a playoff birth and experience for the team every time, hell keeping Hall happy for a third alone was worth it

But would you trade 3 2nd and 3 3rds for the results we had last year?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

i try not to criticize posters in general, i’m not sure what you’re saying



i agree, but a lot of those were you taking something completely out of context (butcher’s trade value for example) and making a condescending comment about it, spiraling the topic into 2 pages of nonsense. or you evaluating people’s posts based on the person who is saying it rather than the value of what they’re saying. you do it a lot. i’m sure i do my share of stupid stuff too.. we can all understand that it’s going to be a long season if every loss ends in a pissing contest

yeah it was definitely my fault that multiple (not one) posters brought up MAYBE trading Butcher IF Ty Smith becomes good (seriously why are we debating this in November?), someone brought up trading Taylor Hall, and then another poster today brought up Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner. Hand up, all me!!

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Only 2 solutions left as I see it:

1. A major trade

2. Fire the coaching staff

Or just give up and play for the draft.

I enjoy your posts. IMO one year too early for this. One of the reasons I was glad we did not end up landing Maroon, JVR, or whoever we were in on last Summer was that we do not know what will happen with Hall. We should know early in July. I am sure he will be made a fair offer. If he decides he has earned the right to be player/GM and asks Shero to make trades to make the team better immediately or has an "I have to think about it" attitude I think we have to trade him as opposed to allowing him to walk for nothing like Tavares. He will likely get a contract that is about 10% of the cap. If he forces us to trade him we do not know what we would get in return. Big difference if it is picks as opposed to a trade for roster players. This is a year to be patient IMO. The time for big moves if after Hall/Nico are locked up so we know how much cap space we can budget for other players. It is not the worst thing in the world to potentially get a high draft pick and get a good player that produces on a small contract.

 

[MartyOwns]

yeah it was definitely my fault that multiple (not one) posters brought up MAYBE trading Butcher IF Ty Smith becomes good (seriously why are we debating this in November?), someone brought up trading Taylor Hall, and then another poster today brought up Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner. Hand up, all me!!

- they talked about what butcher’s trade value would be, and whether having 2 similar players (if smith pans out as hoped) was redundant.

- they talked about hall’s age relevant to the status of our rebuild, and debated the pros and cons of potentially moving him before he’s due his next big contract.

- those deals were brought up in the context of moves shero has made in his brief time here, and a big picture evaluation of his trading history.

the horror. on a devils discussion board, no less

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

But would you trade 3 2nd and 3 3rds for the results we had last year?

i wouldnt have an opinion on it because thats not sensible. you cant just lump together a bunch of moves like they all served the same purpose.

thats like saying a company invested 2mil in project A and 3mil in project B, but project A crashed and lost the company money while project B is growing. just because the company lost money overall because of project A doesnt mean their investment in project B is dragged down as well...

 

[OmNomNom]

But would you trade 3 2nd and 3 3rds for the results we had last year?

if we made none of those 2nd/3rd rd pick trades, we'd have a shitton of prospects, no palmieri, no vatanen, no noesen, and we'd be the new oilers - stockpiling 1OAs

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

- they talked about what butcher’s trade value would be, and whether having 2 similar players (if smith pans out as hoped) was redundant.

- they talked about hall’s age relevant to the status of our rebuild, and debated the pros and cons of potentially moving him before he’s due his next big contract.

- those deals were brought up in the context of moves shero has made in his brief time here, and a big picture evaluation of his trading history.

the horror. on a devils discussion board, no less

and thats where we differ. discussing any one of those things at this point in the season is utterly pointless and silly. You don't agree. Thats fine. Moving on.

 

[JimEIV]

I enjoy your posts. IMO one year too early for this. One of the reasons I was glad we did not end up landing Maroon, JVR, or whoever we were in on last Summer was that we do not know what will happen with Hall. We should know early in July. I am sure he will be made a fair offer. If he decides he has earned the right to be player/GM and asks Shero to make trades to make the team better immediately or has an "I have to think about it" attitude I think we have to trade him as opposed to allowing him to walk for nothing like Tavares. He will likely get a contract that is about 10% of the cap. If he forces us to trade him we do not know what we would get in return. Big difference if it is picks as opposed to a trade for roster players. This is a year to be patient IMO. The time for big moves if after Hall/Nico are locked up so we know how much cap space we can budget for other players. It is not the worst thing in the world to potentially get a high draft pick and get a good player that produces on a small contract.

It seems contradictory to do nothing and hope to keep Hall. Do we really want to have to try to sign a league MVP after a bad season?

But the larger question in my mind is where are we as a team? Are we just a few pieces away or is there still a lot that needs to be done?

What are we seeing right now? A simple slump or a bad team that needs a lot of rework? Being patient can very well mean throwing the season away. I don't think that is the best approach...I think we have some decent pieces here that aren't performing to their fullest. I absolutely hate the message that I hear coming from this staff that "you're not good enough to not play at 100% every night" I get the idea but to me it plants a seed of you're not talented...I think that this coach is one this teams biggest problems

 

[Cult of Hynes]

And because Johansson's been god-awful as a Devil. That's a big factor in the whole meme of wasting five picks, he was supposed to be part of the long-term solution, not just a guy that plays 80-100 ineffective games and then gets booted out.

He was hurt most of last season. What dont you grasp about that lol? This year he has been playing on a second mostly with Zacha, who has not shown he is any sort of offensive threat, and now Zajac who is not exactly a top 6 player regardless of the current offensive output this season, and no actual top 6 right winger.

He was putting up 40+ points with Kuznetzov and or Backstrom as his center and hit 58 on a presidents trophy winning Caps team that had ridiclous depth to them.

Some of you expect him to be like McDavid or Hall and carry an entire line when he's not that sort of player, but more of a complementary top 6 player.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I want to see what Johansson looks like with at least one consistent linemate. Hoping Bratt can be that

 

[JimEIV]

He was hurt most of last season. What dont you grasp about that lol? This year he has been playing on a second mostly with Zacha, who has not shown he is any sort of offensive threat, and now Zajac who is not exactly a top 6 player regardless of the current offensive output this season, and no actual top 6 right winger.

I was wondering how long it was going to take before the next center wasn't talented enough to play with Johansson....1 day apparently is the answer.

 

[Cult of Hynes]

I was wondering how long it was going to take before the next center wasn't talented enough to play with Johansson....1 day apparently is the answer.

Zajac right now is not exactly the type of player that will help Mojo get 40 - 50 points in a season. He's not even remotely close to the level of center that Mojo has been playing with.

Zajac is not a top 6 center on a team that is built to contend and make the playoffs consistently. He is a 3rd liner that isn't totally out of place in the top 6 if he has to play there for a short period of time.

 

[JimEIV]

Zajac right now is not exactly the type of player that will help Mojo get 40 - 50 points in a season. He's not even remotely close to the level of center that Mojo has been playing with.

Zajac is not a top 6 center on a team that is built to contend and make the playoffs consistently. He is a 3rd liner that isn't totally out of place in the top 6 if he has to play there for a short period of time.

Johansson is the problem not the people he's played with. He floats for large parts of games.

 

[MadDevil]

Building solely through the draft is not really a viable strategy. Plus it's a bit weird to say we threw picks away when we've drafted 26 players over the last 3 drafts. Yes, it would have been nice to gave another pick or two at this year's draft, but it was a calculated gamble to try to add pieces to a team that was fighting for a playoff spot. It's easy to sit here now, after Grabner did nothing for us and Maroon walked, to say those trades didn't work or shouldn't have been made. The Mueller trade is still up in the air as he's played pretty well, and if he ends up being a solid top 4 guy, I will gladly have given up a 2nd round pick (which we picked up in a previous trade by the way) for him. The MoJo trade hasn't worked out so far. I'd say the Vatanen trade worked for both teams. The Palmieri trade was a home run. You can't expect to win every trade.

 

[Cult of Hynes]

I want to see what Johansson looks like with at least one consistent linemate. Hoping Bratt can be that

He was looking fine last year until he took a header into the boards and gave himself a concussion, and seemed to be finding a groove again until Marchand gave him a flying elbow in the head.

14 points in 29 games is kind of on par with what he was doing in Washington for most of his career.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Definitely would rather have a 2nd/3rd round pick than our top line RW who is at the top of the league in goals

Definitely would rather have a 2nd round pick than our top pairing DMan right now

oh wait.