Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) VI - The Home Stretch

[MartyOwns]

I honestly don’t see McLeod ever being a regular NHLer.

saved!

I honestly don't know if I would bet on that. I don't think Mcleod has anywhere near the skill Zacha has, but Zacha is not translating that skill into points...

I do think Mcleod's speed can keep him around for a while...but from what I've seen I think that speed is a little exaggerated around these parts. I don't like what I have seen from Mcleod so far in all honesty. But who knows how the development goes...

But if I had to put all my chips on one player right now, it would be Zacha.

i've seen a lot more zacha than i've seen mcleod. but based on what i've seen/heard/read, and given that we don't seem to be absurdly rushing his development (unlike zacha) i'm incredibly optimistic. i think we're going to look really really good with nico and mcleod as our 1-2 line centers in a few years.

 

[Sir Fenwick Corsi]

If they miss, Cory will be the biggest reason why. It's not unreasonable to suggest that at all. Behind Hall, he is the second most important player on this team and had he performed even anywhere near close to his ability throughout the season, it's a safe bet this team is firmly in the playoffs right now. He should be no worse than our second best player and he's not even close. That's not to discount his strong player earlier in the season, but he's been so bad since then that it's basically negated his strong play and then some. Cory is the biggest letdown on this roster this season. And this is from someone who was fully behind feeding his as many starts as possible. I wanted to see him play 70 games and thought he was capable of a Vezina level season. He imploded instead.

 

[Bleedred]

Not because of Cory/Marty debating, but just because it pertains to us from a historical standpoint as far as goaltending goes. I'm trying to figure if this is the worst 10-11 games of goaltending we've seen from a Devils goalie in the modern era.

I'm gonna assume Marty's his worst stretch in his career was from December 10th of 2010 to January 1st of 2011. He allowed 32 goals on 204 shots, for an .843% save percentage over that time in 10 games played. He was 1-8-0 during this stretch. Didn't get the decision in the last game, as he was yanked early and the game winner was on Hedberg. His one win in that stretch was a random 29 save shutout over Phoenix.

From March 25th of 2013 until April 15th of 2013, Marty went 0-6-4 with an .876% save percentage.

Between February 16th of 2013 and April 27th of 2013, Hedberg went 3-10-3 with an 864% save percentage. That was basically all but his first 3 games that year, where he allowed 2 goals on 74 shots and was 3-0-0 with one shutout.

So Cory's current play isn't the worst we've seen in at least 25 years from a Devils goalie, but it's getting there. It's probably the second or third worst that we've seen in 25 years. Marty was 5-5-2 with an .876% save percentage for the first 14 games he played in 2000-2001, but the league average that year was .903%, whereas it's .913% this year, ,913% in 10-11 and .912% in 12-13. So that's a little more respectable.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I mean yeah from a pure sixth round valuation chart he’ll always be ahead of the career curve but honestly after his first 20 or so games it’d be disappointing at this point if we never got anything out of him again. Once you come into the NHL the way Bratt did there start to be some expectations.

Yes at 19 he put up close to 40. If he never played another NHL game it would be a major disappointment.

The fact that he was drafted way lower then he should have been, or the odds of 6 rounders panning out, have been surpassed by his rookie season. There is a new bar.

of course it would be a disappointment given what he has shown.

However, overall, Bratt's career would be considered a success even if he never did. That is my point.

 

[Bleedred]

If they miss, Cory will be the biggest reason why. It's not unreasonable to suggest that at all. Behind Hall, he is the second most important player on this team and had he performed even anywhere near close to his ability throughout the season, it's a safe bet this team is firmly in the playoffs right now. He should be no worse than our second best player and he's not even close. That's not to discount his strong player earlier in the season, but he's been so bad since then that it's basically negated his strong play and then some. Cory is the biggest letdown on this roster this season.

Yup

This current death march he's on has literally took his numbers from performing how he did here in his first 3 seasons, all the way down to how he performed last year. Just in 11 games.

 

[JimEIV]

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Devils missing the playoffs, but to blame it on Cory is beyond ridiculous.

This reminds me of the "10 reasons Bill Buckner was NOT responsible for the 1986 World Series loss"

You can play linear "what ifs" all you like but you can sure enough bet Bill Buckner loss the 1986 series, just like Cory has imploded this season.

 

[devilsblood]

of course it would be a disappointment given what he has shown.

However, overall, Bratt's career would be considered a success even if he never did. That is my point.

But this is all about the 6th round pick angle. Which shouldn't carry much weight given he should have went way higher.

Him being 19 shouldn't carry any weight if we are judging overall career.

 

[dzubrus8]

For all the talk about who is better between Schneider and Kinkaid, there have been numerous callouts about what could've been if we had league average goaltending and how this wouldn't be a conversation right now.

Over the course of this season, we are ~4 GA away from having the league median SV%. So for all the games KK and Schneider have lost/won lately, they've both played pretty terribly/well to lose/win some games we should've won/lost.

I understand that those commenters are referring to Schneider's last 11, but stats don't work that way – surely, if every time the Devils got shut out 1 or 2-0, we would all be complaining about "if they could just be an average offense and scored 2+ that night, it would've gone our way." You can't accept the good as it comes and then say after every bad result that if he had just been average we would've won. At that point you're asking for both goalies to be great and then when they have a "bad" night they should at least be league average, meaning you expect some really high numbers from both goalies.

Before KK's recent run, he was a .89 goalie. Nobody should have been calling for him to take the reins full-time. Before Schneider's downfall, he was nearing .92. Nobody should have thought he'd play like the worst goalie in the NHL over the last 3 months.

 

[Bleedred]

I would say goaltending is the biggest reason we missed, if we do miss.

And it's not just Cory, but as people were telling me back when I was ripping Keith a month ago, we should expect more from Cory than Keith. And they definitely have a good point.

And it's especially fair to blame goaltending when we were blaming goaltending back in the Pete years or the MacLean year, when the team was a bottom 3 scoring team in the league those years, even lowest scoring in a couple of them and people were blaming the goaltending for that. Not that goaltending was good in those years, but it probably wasn't even the main reason we missed.

Where do we rank in goal scoring right now? 16th? 17th? According to hockey reference, the league average in goals for is 217 in 73 games. We have 214 goals in 73 games. I'm pretty sure that's our actual goals for? And not including ''goals'' we've gotten for each shootout we've won? Someone help me out with one please.

So if that's the case, that would make us just a tick below middle of the league in goals scored. If we score 15 more goals in 9 more games, we will have surpassed 11-12 for goals scored as a team. This is already by far our second highest scoring team of the decade. We have 17 more goals than our third highest scoring team since 10-11. 9 more goals passes our 09-10 total. We already have 16 more goals than the last year Marty won the Vezina in 07-08. We already have 8 more goals than we did in 06-07. We need 20 goals over the last 9 games to surpass our totals goals scored in 05-06, the inflated numbers post-lockout season that Gionta scored 48 goals and Scott frickin Gomez scored 33 goals!

 

[Bleedred]

For all the talk about who is better between Schneider and Kinkaid, there have been numerous callouts about what could've been if we had league average goaltending and how this wouldn't be a conversation right now.

Over the course of this season, we are ~4 GA away from having the league median SV%. So for all the games KK and Schneider have lost/won lately, they've both played pretty terribly/well to lose/win some games we should've won/lost.

I understand that those commenters are referring to Schneider's last 11, but stats don't work that way – surely, if every time the Devils got shut out 1 or 2-0, we would all be complaining about "if they could just be an average offense and scored 2+ that night, it would've gone our way." You can't accept the good as it comes and then say after every bad result that if he had just been average we would've won. At that point you're asking for both goalies to be great and then when they have a "bad" night they should at least be league average, meaning you expect some really high numbers from both goalies.

Before KK's recent run, he was a .89 goalie. Nobody should have been calling for him to take the reins full-time. Before Schneider's downfall, he was nearing .92. Nobody should have thought he'd play like the worst goalie in the NHL over the last 3 months.

I agree with all of this.

And as I've said, every goalie not named Ken Appleby that played here this year has probably cost us at least a game. That includes Eddie Lack and that clunker against Boston, where we lost by one (non-empty netter) goal and he allowed 2 stinkers.

 

[Bleedred]

This might be a top 5 in scoring Devils team since the early 00's. Probably since 00-01.

We had 238 goals in 08-09, we might pass that, we might not. As of now, we're only behind the 02-03 team (by just 2 goals, we're gonna pass them), the 05-06 team (good shot at passing them), the 08-09 team, the 09-10 team (we're gonna pass them) and the 11-12 team (probably gonna pass them and the 00-01 team (not gonna get to 296), as far as seasons starting in this century go.

 

[Triumph]

The Devils are the averagest team. Average goaltending, average defense, average offense.

 

[JimEIV]

Also, If you don't think Cory's performance is sending shock waves through the locker room you're kidding yourself... This team battle back twice because of Cory

First late December through January when his losing streak started we were losing ground very fast...Then luckily he got injured and Keith picked up the torch in February.

Then he came back and continued his losing streak with a big loss to Florida, that started another 4 in a row. The Florida loss might be the one you really want to look at in another week or so. The only saving grace was Keith's performance.

That is taxing on a team that every time your number #1 steps in net you lose...Not only do you lose, you lose ground on a playoff spot and the good work you did before is thrown out the window.

That's on Cory. 100% on Cory.

 

[Bleedred]

The Devils are the averagest team. Average goaltending, average defense, average offense.

I'd say below average in goaltending. Not by a ton, but below average in goaltending.

Maybe slightly below average in defense. The fact that Andy Greene still plays 20+ minutes here is probably what pushes it down to below average.

 

[Bleedred]

Also, If you don't think Cory's performance is sending shock waves through the locker room you're kidding yourself... This team battle back twice because of Cory

First late December through January when his loosing streak started we were losing ground very fast...Then luckily he got injured and Keith picked up the torch in February.

Then he came back and continued his losing streak with a big loss to Florida, that started another 4 in a row. The Florida loss might be the one you really want to look at in another week or so. The only saving grace was Keith's performance.

That is taxing on a team that every time your number #1 steps in net you lose...Not only do you lose, you lose ground on a playoff spot and the good work you did before is thrown out the window.

That's on Cory. 100% on Cory.

The sad part was the the game against Florida might have been his best game since December. It was easily his best game since he came back from injury. He allowed that dead angle game winner with 7 minutes left, but he was solid up until then. He's looked progressively worse in every game since he's come back. In the Vegas game, the bad goals started happening in the 2nd period, a little earlier against Winnipeg, very early last game.

 

[haak84]

Let me get this straight...

Our 6 million dollar superstar goalie craps the bad and potentially causes us to miss the playoffs.

Our 1 million dollar backup goalie comes in while superstar goalie is struggling and potentially saves the season.

Since our superstar goalie can't be trusted we need a better backup.

Cory's crappy play will not only result in the Devil's missing the playoffs but also the loss of Kinkaids job.

Man, this board sometimes.

 

[Triumph]

I'd say below average in goaltending. Not by a ton, but below average in goaltending.

Maybe slightly below average in defense. The fact that Andy Greene still plays 20+ minutes here is probably what pushes it down to below average.

A decent amount of the gap between average is explained by the Devils shot counter undercounting shots against.

 

[Chessarmy]

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Devils missing the playoffs, but to blame it on Cory is beyond ridiculous.

With all due respect, that's total Schneider-homerism at this point. How you can look at his abysmal play over the last 11 games and not blame him for this team's implosion is beyond me.

We're on season two of him posting bottom of the barrel numbers. At what point do you acknowledge that the guy between the pipes getting paid millions of dollars to stop the puck isn't doing his job? This team, with its personnel on defense, needs Schneider to play like a starting goaltender. He's getting paid 6 million dollars a year to do so.

Instead, we're getting complete garbage out of him and it might cost the team a playoff run. That's on him.

 

[devilsblood]

For all the talk about who is better between Schneider and Kinkaid, there have been numerous callouts about what could've been if we had league average goaltending and how this wouldn't be a conversation right now.

Over the course of this season, we are ~4 GA away from having the league median SV%. So for all the games KK and Schneider have lost/won lately, they've both played pretty terribly/well to lose/win some games we should've won/lost.

I understand that those commenters are referring to Schneider's last 11, but stats don't work that way – surely, if every time the Devils got shut out 1 or 2-0, we would all be complaining about "if they could just be an average offense and scored 2+ that night, it would've gone our way." You can't accept the good as it comes and then say after every bad result that if he had just been average we would've won. At that point you're asking for both goalies to be great and then when they have a "bad" night they should at least be league average, meaning you expect some really high numbers from both goalies.

Before KK's recent run, he was a .89 goalie. Nobody should have been calling for him to take the reins full-time. Before Schneider's downfall, he was nearing .92. Nobody should have thought he'd play like the worst goalie in the NHL over the last 3 months.

That's a problem with looking at averages.

Yes Cory was very good early this season. But he's been brutal of late. And the brutal part has brought his average to below average.

Now I think we all expect Cory to be better then average, so that's a part of this as well. We expect him to be very good, so when overall he is below average, then that is not good for the team.

But again just looking at his stats for the season, that doesn't consider the nuance, the details, and when you look at Cory this season the highs and lows both need to be considered if you hope to have a good idea of how well he played overall.

 

[haak84]

That goal from behind the blue line against Florida is the turning point of the season. It just destroyed Cory's confidence and it was a 4 point swing.

 

[NJDevs26]

This reminds me of the "10 reasons Bill Buckner was NOT responsible for the 1986 World Series loss"

You can play linear "what ifs" all you like but you can sure enough bet Bill Buckner loss the 1986 series, just like Cory has imploded this season.

Uh about that I have news for you, score was already tied before the error. Buckner fields the ball and the game goes to an 11th inning tied after the Sox already blew a 5-3, two out situation.

Digression over, back to ‘team’ discussion.

 

[GameSeven]

That goal from behind the blue line against Florida is the turning point of the season. It just destroyed Cory's confidence and it was a 4 point swing.

And not that we only scored one goal in a pivotal game, or had clown-shoes defense on the third goal against.
There's plenty of blame to heap on Cory, the lion's share even, but to exempt others in that game is not at all fair.

 

[haak84]

And not that we only scored one goal in a pivotal game, or had clown-shoes defense on the third goal against.
There's plenty of blame to heap on Cory, the lion's share even, but to exempt others in that game is not at all fair.

It was a tight 1-1 game in the 3rd at that point. It's a goal no goalie should give up and it deflated the team.

We had clown shoes defense because the team went into attack mode after Florida grabbed the lead.

Yes the rest of the team could have scored 10 goals but this is the NHL. That game and the season is on Cory.

 

[Bleedred]

Let me get this straight...

Our 6 million dollar superstar goalie craps the bad and potentially causes us to miss the playoffs.

Our 1 million dollar backup goalie comes in while superstar goalie is struggling and potentially saves the season.

Since our superstar goalie can't be trusted we need a better backup.

Cory's crappy play will not only result in the Devil's missing the playoffs but also the loss of Kinkaids job.

Man, this board sometimes.

What else do we do? He's easier to get rid of than Schneider is.

We can't have this tandem next year, I know that much. More of an indictment on Cory not being good anymore.

See if you can trade Keith to a team that has a more reliable starter than Cory and get a guy that can play 40 games, if not possibly more and at least do a better than average job at it. A slightly better than average job at it.

 

[Burner Account]

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Devils missing the playoffs, but to blame it on Cory is beyond ridiculous.

Blaming it squarely on Cory is ridiculous, but placing a large chunk of blame on Cory and his sustained ECHL-level play is perfectly reasonable.