Devils 2015-16 team discussion (player news & notes) part XIII

[SteveCangialosi123]

What was my analysis?

"Meh"???

I don't think that is an analysis?
LOL.

The garbage you were on about how a second rounder next year (a better draft supposedly) is somehow worse than a second this year.

 

[ghdi]

Trades are fine, more bummed we didn't move a 6th for Pirri

Had we moved a 3rd for Pirri I would be fine with it. Thing is, its hard to get too "Why didnt we do this or that for that guy" about the situation because we don't know the exacts. My guess is Tallon was looking for a specific place for Pirri and its also possible he wanted to move him West so it doesnt look worse in the long run. Its easy to armchair and say Id have moved this for him, but theres so much we dont know as to why he took so little for him when common sense says Tallon could've done a lot better.

 

[NJDevils17]

On us not offering a pick for Pirri:

Chris Nichols ‏@NicholsOnHockey 4m4 minutes ago
Dreger: "All the managers that I talked to kinda just chuckled, saying there's no way Dale Tallon's getting a second round pick for Pirri."

Really surprised nobody offered better than a 6th for a young 20-goal scorer. I guess he's been run out of 2 locker rooms and has become overrated? I thought we should've but hey whatever.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Hey, having a heated discussion on Facebook with some joker, can other teams talk to Kovy like right now while we still hold his rights?

Well he's not under contract so he can talk all he wants to whoever but if he comes back to the NHL we have his rights.

 

[ghdi]

Interesting note: Shero kind of deflected the Drouin question. I'm not sure what to do with that, but it makes me think that there's actually a possibility we're looking at these young guys (Yakupov, Drouin, etc.) which is very encouraging.

If Shero wasn't kicking tires on these guys, he'd not be doing his job really. I don't think there's any question we were inquiring on both, espc considering the scouts of late and Shero's somewhat coy response.

It'll be really interesting to see if Drouin accepts Yzerman's olive branch to return and play this season. That would salvage a lot in some eyes and arguably drives the price up if he plays well. If he does accept this, I would think that we wouldn't have as strong a chance to get him than if he doesn't. Drouin can be moved at any time really, just wouldnt be playoff eligible. It kills a lot of options for destination. The thing I'm most annoyed about is having to hear about it for the foreseeable future.

 

[ghdi]

We pretty much did what I expected today. I thought maybe Schlemko would get moved as well, but with the Gelinas trade I can see why they didn't. Plus the return probably wasn't worth it. Interested to see what they do with DSP. Do they slot him in Stempniak's spot? Maybe give Boucher more of a look on the right side?

I'd expect DSP no higher than 3rd line and Palmieri and Kennedy to get more minutes on the higher lines. DSP is not a Stempniak replacement in any respect.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Put Kennedy on the Henrique line. And move Zajac's line to the top line.

 

[JimEIV]

The garbage you were on about how a second rounder next year (a better draft supposedly) is somehow worse than a second this year.

A pick this year is always better than a pick next year. Always, every time... just like X amount of money is worth more today than it is next year.

A 2nd round pick next year is a lost year of development and a nothing asset, not growing and not producing a single thing. Your chances that the 2nd round pick is going to be a player doesn't really change all that much from year to year.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Well, now that that's over, should be an interesting offseason for us. Stemp, Okposo, Boedker, Grabner, and a few others all potential ufas we could take runs at to fill out our top 9, still the (unlikely) possibility we could trade for one of the struggling young forwards getting themselves run out of town around the league, and hope that we get a high draft pick.

I know it sucks, but this is how we pull out of the basement.

I can't see Colorado making that trade without some kind of inside track on signing Boedker.

I think its just Okoposo now, but IDK what it will cost.

 

[Lou is God]

Well he's not under contract so he can talk all he wants to whoever but if he comes back to the NHL we have his rights.

But neither our college or junior prospects but talking to them would be tampering no?

 

[Emperoreddy]

But neither our college or junior prospects but talking to them would be tampering no?

True, but I don't think its the same thing. This is kind of uncharted waters but you might be right in it being tampering.

Again there doesn't seem to be a consensus on whether we have his rights, or just the first chance to sign him if he actually decides to come back (which we don't know if that will even happen yet).

God I wish he would just go away.

 

[kiwidevil]

A pick this year is always better than a pick next year. Always, every time... just like X amount of money is worth more today than it is next year.

A 2nd round pick next year is a lost year of development and a nothing asset, not growing and not producing a single thing. Your chances that the 2nd round pick is going to be a player doesn't really change all that much from year to year.

We should trade all our future picks then past 2016 as they aren't worth a single thing. And we should have demanded a 2016 7th rounder for Stemps instead of a 2017 2nd.

 

[Zippy316]

Only thing I'm really upset about is Stempniak.

I was hoping we got Khokhlachev in return, but I'm not complaining with a second and a fourth. Even if the second is 2017, it still gives the Devils a lot more flexibility when it comes to trades. It's much easier to trade a second round pick when you have an extra one. Considering that it seems like Shero is in on Eberle, Yakupov, and Drouin, I think extra picks will definitely come in handy.

As far as the Matteau deal, the way I see it was that even if you like Matteau, Smith-Pelley is an even trade. On top of that, he is a right handed shot and he plays right wing so he won't get lost on the left side that Matteau did and likely will in the future. I personally didn't see much in Matteau right now to think he would develop into an NHL player. I like his tools, but he clearly needed some AHL time to develop his game and likely will stagnate at the NHL level without that development. Smith-Pelly gives us a 4RW at worst, with some upside.

Gelinas is in the same boat as Matteau where I think it was time to move on from both a player standpoint and organizational standpoint. Also, he was likely to experience a similar log jam here that Matteau did. A third round pick is pretty decent value which gives us some flexibility.

 

[Lou is God]

True, but I don't think its the same thing. This is kind of uncharted waters but you might be right in it being tampering.

Again there doesn't seem to be a consensus on whether we have his rights, or just the first chance to sign him if he actually decides to come back (which we don't know if that will even happen yet).

God I wish he would just go away.

LOL, I was just thinking that, I mean if we thought the whole Kovy contracts and bailing us were headaches, we ain't seeing nothing yet.

 

[Emperoreddy]

A pick this year is always better than a pick next year. Always, every time... just like X amount of money is worth more today than it is next year.

A 2nd round pick next year is a lost year of development and a nothing asset, not growing and not producing a single thing. Your chances that the 2nd round pick is going to be a player doesn't really change all that much from year to year.

Until and only IF the picks get packaged or traded into something more significant does that trade help us long term.

If we can't offload them for another player or at least another 1st rounder we really didn't help the franchise much overall. A 4th this year is nothing, and a 2nd next year is far down the line.

Plenty of reason to not be to excited about this return right now. It isn't like last year when a 2nd was like a late 1st.

 

[kiwidevil]

I hope that we hold Kovy's rights and he wants to return. Then we trade his rights to another team.

 

[Emperoreddy]

LOL, I was just thinking that, I mean if we thought the whole Kovy contracts and bailing us were headaches, we ain't seeing nothing yet.

I don't want to sound like Jim, but the more this crap goes on the more I'm in the "he is the worst thing to happen to this franchise" team.

 

[PWiz30]

I can't see Colorado making that trade without some kind of inside track on signing Boedker.

I think its just Okoposo now, but IDK what it will cost.

If recent history is any indication, all signs seem to point to Okposo joining Parise on the love boat in Minnesota.

 

[mike30]

damn shero couldnt try to trade even a 5th rounder for pirri?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

A pick this year is always better than a pick next year. Always, every time... just like X amount of money is worth more today than it is next year.

A 2nd round pick next year is a lost year of development and a nothing asset, not growing and not producing a single thing. Your chances that the 2nd round pick is going to be a player doesn't really change all that much from year to year.

If the player we draft next year is better than someone we could draft this year, I don't care about one year of development. And we just made the Palmieri trade that involved a 2nd rounder. Don't you remember? Lol. We can use the pick to get someone who is developed. You're too hung up on the fact that the pick is next year.

 

[MichaelJ]

Can see us sliding down to the sixth overall pick again. Don't see us sliding down far enough to catch Buffalol, Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

The highest we'll get is 7th. We won't fall below Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Calgary, or Edmonton. That puts 6 teams definitely ahead of us. Phoenix and Vancouver have outside shots but I wouldn't count on it. I think we'll be 9th and can hopefully trade up 2-3 slots to get a legitimate talent.

 

[PWiz30]

Hey, having a heated discussion on Facebook with some joker, can other teams talk to Kovy like right now while we still hold his rights?

If memory serves me, one of two things would need to happen for Kovy to sign with another team. The first is that all 30 GMs would have to approve his return (unlikely). Or he could sit out for two full seasons and sign with any team that needs a 35 year old forward with a track record of putting himself ahead of his team, chronic back problems, and no games played in 2 seasons. That team would also need to be okay with the possibility that he'll jump ship when the Russian economy recovers.

The ruble tanking might be bad for international relations but I couldn't be happier with the way Kovy's retirement has played out.

 

[Zippy316]

It's worthless debating Kovalchuk's return.

It's such a complicated thing that if he decides to come back before he turns 35, I think the league will deal with it when they have to and figure out which rules apply, etc.

 

[Rhodes 81]

We should trade all our future picks then past 2016 as they aren't worth a single thing.

This is an exercise I've thought about a few times. Let's say you have the 1st Overall and are about to happily draft Auston Matthews, but then I offer your my team's firsts a year from now, three years from now, and five years from now. Would you take that deal? Let's say this is the Oilers and the Devils talking. The Oilers trade us Matthews, but what are they getting back. Our 1st next year could easily end up being a top 10 pick, but could just as easily end up around 20-22 range. 3 and 5 years from now is almost impossible to predict. What if we were to say instead that it will be our pick this year, next year, and the year after? That's much more attractive because then you have more of an idea of where the picks will be, who you can draft with those picks, and you will reap your rewards sooner.

Most people would probably trade the 1st overall for three guaranteed top 10 picks, but are far less likely to do it for three picks that may or may not be top 10.

I disagree with Jim's analysis that the Stempniak trade is bad because the 2nd is next year, but he's not wrong that picks now are more valuable than picks later. You have more information on where in the 2nd round your pick will be and more information on who will still be available in that area. Yes the draft may be deeper or more shallow, but that is at worst offset by the greater information.

Think about our 2nd round choices recently

2010: Merrill debut November 2013
2011: none
2012: Severson debut October 2014
2013: Santini likely debut next year
2014: Jacbos likely at least 1 year away
2015: Blackwood won't even be on the radar for the big club for another 3-4 years

The general consensus is that these are all better than average prospects for 2nd rounders, and even still outside of Severson it takes them at least 3-4 years to become NHL players. Adding or subtracting a year to that development time is huge, and so a pick being in next year's draft over this year's is certainly a significant factor into value.

 

[NJDevs26]

Under normal circumstances yes a pick today is worth more than a pick tomorrow. But if you're telling me the 2017 draft > 2016 draft in terms of quality I'd have to think it offsets that rule of thumb at least to a degree, no? Would you rather have a blind pick in the 2014 draft or one at the same spot in last year's draft? Yes you'd be a year further along in development with 2014 but you'd probably have a better chance of ultimately finding an NHL player out of last year's draft.