Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings #6 Overall Pick - Part Deux

[The Zermanator]

Byram may very well have a higher ceiling. But it's incredibly early in the career of an NHL defenseman to put odds on how likely he ever reaches it.

I'm certainly not opposed to trading one or more forwards for help on defense. But no matter how much I like Byram, I don't think he's anywhere near a lock to pan out as a top pairing guy in the NHL.

The odds are pretty good, going by the list of dmen drafted in the top 10 since 2010:

2010: Gubrandson, McIlrath,
2011: Larsson, Hamilton, Brodin,
2012: Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Lindholm
2013: Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen
2014: Ekblad, Fleury
2015: Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski
2016: Juolevi, Sergachev
2017: Heiskanen, Makar
2018: Dahlin, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard

There are a few busts/disappointments in there, though it's still too early to call either way on some of them. But overall that is a very strong group, with lots more hits than misses. If Byram is even average amongst those names that would be a Hamilton-type which we sorely need. But if he falls to 6 and we pass on him we may very well be passing on a Werenski, Jones, or Provorov type who will hit the NHL early and be very good almost right away. We just can't afford to pass up on that. To me it seems a very low risk, high reward pick. And with Byram often stylistically compared to Doughty, a #1 dman who excels in all areas of the ice is exactly what we need.

I expect Byram to be gone by our pick anyways, I'm hoping for Zegras personally in that event. But for me if Byram falls it's a no-brainer.

 

[jkutswings]

The odds are pretty good, going by the list of dmen drafted in the top 10 since 2010:

2010: Gubrandson, McIlrath,
2011: Larsson, Hamilton, Brodin,
2012: Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Lindholm
2013: Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen
2014: Ekblad, Fleury
2015: Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski
2016: Juolevi, Sergachev
2017: Heiskanen, Makar
2018: Dahlin, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard

There are a few busts/disappointments in there, though it's still too early to call either way on some of them. But overall that is a very strong group, with lots more hits than misses. If Byram is even average amongst those names that would be a Hamilton-type which we sorely need. But if he falls to 6 and we pass on him we may very well be passing on a Werenski, Jones, or Provorov type who will hit the NHL early and be very good almost right away. We just can't afford to pass up on that. To me it seems a very low risk, high reward pick. And with Byram often stylistically compared to Doughty, a #1 dman who excels in all areas of the ice is exactly what we need.

I expect Byram to be gone by our pick anyways, I'm hoping for Zegras personally in that event. But for me if Byram falls it's a no-brainer.

I'd have no issue if they took him. I'm just acknowledging that there tends to be a little more risk with projecting defensemen than forwards.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Agree on cozens, I don't like him as much as others do and certainly not as a centre. I see a lot of the same similarities as AA, not great under pressure, tough time handling the puck at speed, not a great defensive game, not a high level hockey IQ.

Why? Those guys will only be 28, 2o and 30?

How old were ovie and backstrom last year or yzerman and federov in 1997?

We are not winning a thing anytime soon. We are only at the start. We can not only wait on Byram but also the kid we hope to draft in June 2021..

Yes you can win with your two best stars at 21 or so like Chicago but they already had in place Keith and Seabrook.

You need stars to win and either we dont have them or they haven't emerged. Our timeline hasn't even started yet

 

[The Zermanator]

I'd have no issue if they took him. I'm just acknowledging that there tends to be a little more risk with projecting defensemen than forwards.

But that risk shrinks considerably when you're talking about a ~ top 5 pick.

 

[Winger98]

We need more than 1 impact guy on D so nothing wrong with pursuing Karlsson/Trouba/etc as well. In fact, I encourage it. But like I mentioned those guys have to decide to come here. If they decide on somewhere else we're left completely empty-handed. Again.

Finding scoring forwards in trade/FA is much easier, there's almost always at least a couple available every year. But when Karlsson/Trouba/etc become available, everyone wants them and they'll have many attractive suitors. If we're talking about risking the timeline of the rebuild, nothing will jeopardize it more than our D continuing to go unaddressed in a meaningful manner. Hronek/Cholowski/McIsaac look great, but it would be unreasonable to expect any more than a #2-3 out of any of them until they show that #1 potential.

We do, but a guy like Karlsson also forces everyone on the team down a rung. If we got that clear #1, it makes it a lot easier to build the rest of the blueline. The Wings ability to grab a top line guy (and I'll include Trouba there for now, though I know others have reservations) in the near future probably goes a long way in determining how good of a team is going to be built with Mantha, AA, and Bert around. If we can grab that guy, I can see the Wings kicking it into high gear. If not...well, yeah. Five years out looks a lot more likely.

I see your point, but I almost see it as the inverse. Perhaps it's AA/Mantha/Bert who don't quite fit the timeline of the rebuild. When all is said and done, there's a very good chance that Byram is a far better player than all 3. So we shouldn't pass up on adding him to the team just to spare those players. They can always be traded for younger assets. And if you play your cards right, you can swap their realized potential for a younger prospect/player with greater unrealized potential. There is risk there though.

It might work out that way. I'm not saying the Wings have to contend in the next five years. I'm just pointing out that those three guys are a bit older than they seem. Another five years really pushes them to the outside of their high points where we should expect them to be key pieces on a contending team. And if we're looking at a timeline that pushes contending out to that point, they just don't really fit. With the draft, I'm for taking the BPA, whoever that is.

Well yes, if we can't build a good team in five years we have bigger problems. I just don't understand how AA, Mantha, and Bert being in their mid twenties means Byram isn't a solution and we should trade for someone his caliber instead.

The problem is how many contending teams have a bunch of guys 30+? I think the 02 wings were the last team to really go that route, and they were HOFers. If those three forwards are going to be significant pieces of a team that contends (not necessarily favorites, but is a legit threat), it's going to be sooner rather than later because in five years, they're going to be nearing the wrong side of 30.

Byram would be a guy who would be good to bring in to keep it a good thing going in a few years, when we want to inject a big dose of talent into the lineup and not have to pay out the nose for it. That, or we look at seriously contending only towards the end or outside of that 5 year window.

 

[plymouthmi]

The latter 3 are all question marks for me, but doesn’t change my opinion all that much. Specifically the last two, I think Cozens and Zegras would be capable centers, but might be best served playing on the wing.

Thanks for responding! Yes, I wouldn't think that should preclude the Wings from drafting one of them, was just thinking more as a tie-breaker, if there were two players neck and neck in the rankings.

Like I said in the IIHF thread, I've been impressed with what I've seen of Zegras. I haven't really seen any of the Canadian guys in full games though, just highlight videos.

 

[lilidk]

if we draft Zegras, Krebs or Turcotte in 2 years team looks like
Mantha- Larkin-Bert
AA-2019-Hirosi
Berggren-Veleno-Zadina
Ehn- Galant-Turgeon

 

[Hen Kolland]

if we draft Zegras, Krebs or Turcotte in 2 years team looks like
Mantha- Larkin-Bert
AA-2019-Hirosi
Berggren-Veleno-Zadina
Ehn- Galant-Turgeon

Focusing on the top 9 exclusively because I think the 4th line is relatively insignificant.

I think adding any of the 3 centers that you listed (or Cozens or Dach for the matter) would force Hirose out of a top 6 role, and its probably for the best. More likely that it’s something along the lines of:

Mantha-Larkin-Bertuzzi
AA-2019/Veleno-Zadina
Rasmussen-Veleno/2019-Hirose

And if Svechnikov regains form, or Berggren develops well, we might consider taking advantage of the situation and moving a player or two for high picks and/or defensemen.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Haven’t even read it yet, but this has the chance to be very interesting.

Steve Yzerman Q&A: On draft strategy, analytics and a couple...

 

[DInTheB]

Haven’t even read it yet, but this has the chance to be very interesting.

Steve Yzerman Q&A: On draft strategy, analytics and a couple...

He was asked specially about Caufield and Podkolzin. He was very complimentary about both, but he seemed very intrigued by Podkolzin.

You won’t take too much away from it but it’s interesting none the less.

 

[The Zermanator]

Focusing on the top 9 exclusively because I think the 4th line is relatively insignificant.

I think adding any of the 3 centers that you listed (or Cozens or Dach for the matter) would force Hirose out of a top 6 role, and its probably for the best. More likely that it’s something along the lines of:

Mantha-Larkin-Bertuzzi
AA-2019/Veleno-Zadina
Rasmussen-Veleno/2019-Hirose

And if Svechnikov regains form, or Berggren develops well, we might consider taking advantage of the situation and moving a player or two for high picks and/or defensemen.

Yeah I sure hope Hirose isn't above Zadina on the depth chart two years from now, that would be a bad sign.

 

[Hen Kolland]

He was asked specially about Caufield and Podkolzin. He was very complimentary about both, but he seemed very intrigued by Podkolzin.

You won’t take too much away from it but it’s interesting none the less.

Oh, I didn’t learn a damn thing. Very close to vest other than I think Yzerman does not care in the slightest about “risk”. He’s just going to grade players as players and pick whoever is best, circumstances be damned.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Haven’t even read it yet, but this has the chance to be very interesting.

Steve Yzerman Q&A: On draft strategy, analytics and a couple...

While not much was said I do like this quote from Yzerman:

My goal is to pick a prospect that we expect to play in the NHL and fit into the style of the team that I envision, what the Red Wings have traditionally been. If he’s one, two, three years away, I’m not worried about that.

I can only hope that means more drafts like 2018 where there is an emphasis on skill and hockey IQ. Also, I wouldn't mind if the Wings started to take some more swings at sub 6 foot defenceman, assuming they're dynamic enough offensively to make up for an defensive short comings.

 

[raymond23]

Give me one of Turcotte, Zegras, Krebs or Byram and I'm a happy man.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

He was asked specially about Caufield and Podkolzin. He was very complimentary about both, but he seemed very intrigued by Podkolzin.

You won’t take too much away from it but it’s interesting none the less.

I would like Podkolzin more if he wasn't so slow.

 

[Martinez]

Haven’t even read it yet, but this has the chance to be very interesting.

Steve Yzerman Q&A: On draft strategy, analytics and a couple...

He did say it’s very important to trust the scouts but then at the end of the interview he stated that he’s still getting to know them. Is there still any chance he brings anyone over from the Tampa staff? Or has that ship sailed

 

[Hen Kolland]

Give me one of Turcotte, Zegras, Krebs or Byram and I'm a happy man.

This has boiled down to my list as well.

 

[Hen Kolland]

He did say it’s very important to trust the scouts but then at the end of the interview he stated that he’s still getting to know them. Is there still any chance he brings anyone over from the Tampa staff? Or has that ship sailed

I’m sure he will try, but chances are they are going to make it through the draft with Tampa. They will have to wait until the league year rolls over I’d imagine.

 

[NickH8]

We do, but a guy like Karlsson also forces everyone on the team down a rung. If we got that clear #1, it makes it a lot easier to build the rest of the blueline. The Wings ability to grab a top line guy (and I'll include Trouba there for now, though I know others have reservations) in the near future probably goes a long way in determining how good of a team is going to be built with Mantha, AA, and Bert around. If we can grab that guy, I can see the Wings kicking it into high gear. If not...well, yeah. Five years out looks a lot more likely.



It might work out that way. I'm not saying the Wings have to contend in the next five years. I'm just pointing out that those three guys are a bit older than they seem. Another five years really pushes them to the outside of their high points where we should expect them to be key pieces on a contending team. And if we're looking at a timeline that pushes contending out to that point, they just don't really fit. With the draft, I'm for taking the BPA, whoever that is.



The problem is how many contending teams have a bunch of guys 30+? I think the 02 wings were the last team to really go that route, and they were HOFers. If those three forwards are going to be significant pieces of a team that contends (not necessarily favorites, but is a legit threat), it's going to be sooner rather than later because in five years, they're going to be nearing the wrong side of 30.

Byram would be a guy who would be good to bring in to keep it a good thing going in a few years, when we want to inject a big dose of talent into the lineup and not have to pay out the nose for it. That, or we look at seriously contending only towards the end or outside of that 5 year window.

I don't think we're going to have to rely on those guys to be the guys when we're competitive. Larkin, Veleno, Zadina, and whoever we pick in the next 2 drafts should be the core going forward, with Mantha, AA, and Bert filling out the top 6 if they don't demand too much money.

 

[Zetterbeer]

Give me one of Turcotte, Zegras, Krebs or Byram and I'm a happy man.

Bingo, or Dach. We'll have a chance to nab 2 at least, let's see what Stevie does.

 

[Henkka]

This is an easy projection

Our future forward core is on average age:

Mantha, 24
Betuzzi, 24
Athanasiou, 24
Larkin, 22
Hirose, 22
Svechnikov, 22
Rasmussen, 20
Zadina, 19
Veleno, 19

That's the offensive TOP9 (10 players, some will fail, some will be dropped out because of future picks) core already. Average age of that is:
~21.8 years

Defence:

Bowey, 24
Cholowski, 21
Hronek, 21
Lindström, 20
McIsaac, 19

That's the defensive kid core. Not sure about Bowey being anymore than 3rd pair guy, than Average age from defensive kid core is:
21.0 years.

Offence: 21.8 years_avg
Defence: 21.0 years_avg

Offence with Cozens/Dach/Turcotte/Krebs: 21.3y_avg
Defence with Byram: 20.0 years

So our offence kid core is almost year older than defensive kid core. Getting a guy like Byram from next draft, will push this gap even bigger, on wrong direction.
Defence should be 2-3 years older than offensive core on a balanced team, to peak at same time. Because defencemen will take time to develop oon reliable level, more than forwards. It's just a law on hockey.

If you draft Byram, him being currently 17-year old and almost a decade away from his prime, would push that Defensive kid core average to 20.0. So difference to forward core would grow to almost 2 years.

That's hos many bad teams are built. Strong offence and young mistake-making defence. High-scoring game. Will lead to high foward caphits, because of high-scoring games.

Good cap-controlled are build balanced, because good and not in-experienced defence will keep scoring totals low. Then forward caphits won't accelerate on your hands. That's how long-term winning teams should be built in a cap world.

Yzerman did built Tampa quite perfect way on age distribution. And all the time he favored a veteran defence. Hedman is 28 and that defence core in general is a lot older and experienced, than their offensive core. Kucherov is 25 and on his peak. Hedman is 28 and on his peak. Stamkos has already regressed and is the 2nd best forward at 29 year old. That haven't won anything but it's still the best core which just need some finetuning for playoff hockey, against different styled teams.

In our case, when Byram is "Hedman", it's 11 years after, and that defensive core would be 28 on average 8 years after, then Byram is 25.

So if we draft Byram now to be our 1st D, we should expect that when he and our team is in prime, our forward core is some guys of drafts 2021-24 coming. Some current undrafted 13-15-year olds. If we want to wait that long. Larkin would be 32-year old, Mantha/Bertuzzi 34-olds. Regressing already. Totally mismatched primes.

But we won't have to wait that long, because Yzerman is best at his job. We can keep drafting forwards and trade for a proven defencemen, because those are available on the market all the time. That's the Plan A. Byram's could be Plan B, if he is there.

Drouin for Sergachev, even some matured prospects are available. Karlsson is there, Hamonic was traded, Trouba-rumors, Faulk-rumors. Seth Jones was traded, when Columbus had a forward logjam. They let their 1st line center go and drafted a new kid Dubois, because forward kids will reach their potentials usually faster. Now Jones-prime matches better with Dubois-prime than Werenski would have matched with Johansen-prime. Burns was traded, Suter left Nashville, etc. Those things happen, for various reasons. The market is always there. Just wait for the right fish and Yzerman pulls the trigger.

Trouba could be that fish.

So offence without Byram, with new 2019 center forward + a trade where Athanasiou and Cholowski go for Trouba:

Offence: 21.8 years_avg
Offence with Cozens/Dach/Turcotte/Krebs and without Athanasiou: 21.02 years_avg

Defence with Trouba and without Cholowski/Byram: 21.83 years_avg

With those groups future defence core would be 0.81 years older than offense. Then we would be on the right way to right balance.

 

[Henkka]

Bingo, or Dach. We'll have a chance to nab 2 at least, let's see what Stevie does.

I'll prefer a playmaker-type, because that works best in a cap world.

Playmaking centers like Datsyuk/Zetterberg makes shit look like gold, and then smart GM like Yzerman can trade that shit away for a better piece.

So Dach or Krebs on our #6 range.

 

[raymond23]

I'll prefer a playmaker-type, because that works best in a cap world.

Playmaking centers like Datsyuk/Zetterberg makes **** look like gold, and then smart GM like Yzerman can trade that **** away for a better piece.

So Dach or Krebs on our #6 range.

I am so amazed at the way your brain works Henkka lol. Not ripping on you, your takes are just one of a kind.

 

[Henkka]

People have whined so much about that Abdelkader-contract, how it was carried by Datsyuk-playmaked-inflated stats. I just used our board thinking as an example.

Holland just didn't trade that shit away, he kept him for the future lockerroom leader for kids. But Yzerman can now think different in the big picture on same kind of cases, because we are entering on a different era. Rising team, not a regressing team.

 

[Winger98]

I don't think we're going to have to rely on those guys to be the guys when we're competitive. Larkin, Veleno, Zadina, and whoever we pick in the next 2 drafts should be the core going forward, with Mantha, AA, and Bert filling out the top 6 if they don't demand too much money.

their next contracts will have to eat some UFA years. I think we're looking at least at $5m per - if they keep up their current production. Bert would probably be a bit cheaper, but he's also the kind of guy I can see a GM spending stupidly on as a UFA.

With the cap going up, those might not be the worst numbers, but at the same time what could we get in a trade that might be cheaper and fit a younger group coming in behind them? In a way, dealing them of makes a lot of sense.