Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings 2021 Summer Prospect #3

[jfrank21]

Your entire post was all well and good, and then you bring up Nyquist as the floor.

This is going to knock this entire thread off the rails again, but this simply is just not remotely reasonable. Nyquist's best was first line caliber. Berggren hasn't played a single second of professional hockey in North America, and people have brought up Nyquist as the low end a few times now. If we were honestly talking about Berggren's floor being Nyquist, holy shit, we would be talking about him as one of the best young forward prospects in the entire sport. He's just going to magically show up and become a first liner with the upside to become a top half first line winger in the sport? Good grief.

Edit: I hate doing this type of stuff because it makes me look like a hater of Berggren. That couldn't be further from the truth; I love him as a prospect. I just think we have gotten the buggy way the f*** out in front of the horses right now.

I was sky high on Nyquist as well, and I recognize how incredible he was as a prospect. I had a Nyquist "The best dekeing, shooting, passing rookie you've never seen" background back when I was pissed he was sent back to GR. But the fact of the matter is that he basically turned into a 45-50 pt complimentary, soft, skinny middle sixer. Still good, but not what we were all hoping. I think Berggy will fill out more and be able to play a more feisty game. His vision and IQ will carry him.

Edit: Found it, only 8 years old! View media item 9620

 

[YpsiWings]

Your entire post was all well and good, and then you bring up Nyquist as the floor.

This is going to knock this entire thread off the rails again, but this simply is just not remotely reasonable. Nyquist's best was first line caliber. Berggren hasn't played a single second of professional hockey in North America, and people have brought up Nyquist as the low end a few times now. If we were honestly talking about Berggren's floor being Nyquist, holy shit, we would be talking about him as one of the best young forward prospects in the entire sport. He's just going to magically show up and become a first liner with the upside to become a top half first line winger in the sport? Good grief.

Edit: I hate doing this type of stuff because it makes me look like a hater of Berggren. That couldn't be further from the truth; I love him as a prospect. I just think we have gotten the buggy way the f*** out in front of the horses right now.

No kidding, and you didn’t even bring up the Hudler comparison, a proven NHLer on a Stanley Cup Champion. If Nyquist is the floor what’s the ceiling, Marner? Berggren is an exciting prospect but anyone voting for him above Edvinsson need to pump the brakes.

 

[jfrank21]

Like I said, I voted for Ed. But some of the dumping on Berggren made me want to speak my piece.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Berggren shouldve been 2nd

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Seider
Berggren
Raymond
Edvinsson
Johansson
Cossa
Veleno
Buium
Neiderbach
Tuomisto

top 10 fight me

 

[BinCookin]

I voted Berggren, but that is only because I rate NHL readiness = ceiling in these ratings.

I.e. I know Edvinsson is likely to be the better player 5 years from now. But he is at least 2 years away from ever playing, and Berggren could play this year. So that makes my pick Berggren. I realize others do not follow this type of scoring system.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I must be missing something on half of these names unless these are guys that did in fact leave Sweden before the age range you are even talking about at least Nylander and Backlund left before their D+3 off the top of my head.

Yes, I compared with other Swedish players that left SHL and played AHL at 20 years old, just wanting to adress the idea that other players leave the SHL earlier because they're better - that's not true.

But I think this he left to soon stuff is now getting a little out of hand. It doesn't explain every failure and has gotten to a pretty heavy passing the buck area.

Definitely - I won't argue that you make good points on this. Some of it is simple; we want our talented young players to develop, struggle and learn how to be good players in our own League. And some is more complicated - promising players leave early and end up disappointing. Why? Maybe it would have been same outcome if they stayed. But we will never know.

Point is just that there's not a simple correlation between better players leaving SHL earlier than bad players. We shouldn't compare Berggren's development curve with Nick Bäckström or William Nylander or Elias Pettersson. Most comparable draft picks either played SHL or AHL at 20 years old - and the vast majority didn't do it as well as Berggren did.

More than a few of us have pointed to things he still needs to work on. Glad he rebounded from the injuries, but frankly without last year, he would have fallen out of our top 10 entirely. I think him going to the AHL is a way of letting him learn the NA game at an easier level, though there is more physicality there so his injury history does worry me. But there is an adjustment for sure, but maybe he knocks camp out of the park. I will also say one of the reasons I am staunchly on this and it has been over a decade but I have had guys from both Sweden (top 6 player in Florida still) and Finland (recently retired goalie) in Milwaukee tell me the AHL is a step up from their domestic leagues.

He took hits to make plays last season, he's very strong now. There's some video of him talking about how injuries gave him time to build up his body and how they're doing some intense workouts on that team (his teammate Wingerli for example is a physical monster).
AHL is a step up for intensity, physicality. Less skill, more of a grind. I don't want Berggren there at all tbh.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

Voted Johansson. I think after the second half of the season he had I have to give him his due props. Edvinsson has easily a higher ceiling but is younger so it’s not fair to put him up against a 20 year old but I’m going with Johansson as he is more proven. Berggren had a really good year for sure but I’m not sold on his complete game. He’s gonna have a lot of growing pains at the NA level with his style of play and how we treat our team. I got Albert for now and I believe he will be our #3 defenseman in the NHL. I’m not going off of their potential though, I’m going off what they are now. Edvinsson has the potential to be even better than seider.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Onto prospect poll #4?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

To clarify, I was impressed with Berggren this season. I didn't mean to sound hyper-critical or anything, I just think that one particular stat lacks some context.

I think everyone agrees that Berggren can be a very electric top six winger for us. The disagreement mainly concerns likelihood/certainty. Some posters are very bullish on him reaching that level, some are still more skeptical on how some aspects of his game translate up. Ultimately I think we'll have a much clearer picture by the end of this season.

 

[MBH]

Expressen rated their 50 best SHL players twice the past season:

Seider was 9th, Berggren 13th.
Seider was 2nd, Berggren 9th

Aftonbladet did it once;

Berggren was 4th, Seider was 13th.

Prospects like William Eklund, Nils Lundkvist and Lucas Raymond were not close.

I think many underrate what Berggren actually did last season. He was a steal at the draft, should have been 1st round. If not for injuries he'd have a higher reputation.

I'll be very not surprised when people start raving about Berggren in training camp.

I think Berggren's stats were so good that some people are overrating him.
For one, stats were higher in the SHL last year.
Secondly, every time I watch Berggren I can't help but wonder how his game translates. His game does seem to revolve around getting around edges that won't be there in the NHL.

So, while I have hope for JB, I'm not sold on the upside yet.

 

[Pavels Dog]

For one, stats were higher in the SHL last year.

Source on this?

 

[MBH]

Source on this?

23 players at .75 ppg last year
14 players the year before.

2.76 goals per team per game last year
2.66 goals per team per game the year before

 

[Pavels Dog]

23 players at .75 ppg last year
14 players the year before.

2.76 goals per team per game last year
2.66 goals per team per game the year before

And what would you explain the higher scoring with?

 

[Bench]

I think I'm the only one in the world who didn't presume this.

I saw all the comments here and then Kevin Weeks and crew say it and I thought to myself, "Why do we think that?"

EDIT/ADD: I suppose if I truly considered the type of prospect pool that was left and the fact the Wings don't really have any goalie prospects the thought may have crossed my mind.

I think it's because around that area of the draft, when there's top goalie prospects available, that's when teams start to get anxious to trade up and grab them. Even me, who believes in the value of taking a goalie in the top 10, understands that's rarely going to be the case. So when these guys fall into the teens and you see someone lunge forward, that's a good sign someone is on the move for that goalie.

Minnesota traded up to get Wallstedt, too. Yzerman and Guerin were taking no chances.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

23 players at .75 ppg last year
14 players the year before.

2.76 goals per team per game last year
2.66 goals per team per game the year before

52 games in an SHL regular season.

2.76 goals per game = 143.52 average per team
Here's the stats for the 20-21 season. 7 teams scored below the average.
Elite Prospects - Swedish Hockey League (SHL)

2.66 goals per game = 138.32 average per team
Here's the stats for the 19-20 season. 8 teams scored below the average.
Elite Prospects - Swedish Hockey League (SHL)

It's not a huge jump like you're suggesting. There was more parity in the SHL last season than the year before if you look at how the bottom of the half of the league did when compared to the top half of the league. This isn't the jump from 1991-92 NHL to 1992-93 NHL.

Also, and again, where are you getting your stats from? It was 18 players at 0.75ppg in 2019-20 with 2 more players at 0.74ppg.

 

[rhef3]

edmin, add soder

 

[SCD]

It is kind of absurd when people start arguing about prospects when using different criteria to evaluate the players.

Personally, NHL ready means nothing in the long term. It is about their ceiling and likelihood of reaching their potential.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Onto prospect poll #4?

yes ogee 4 comes after 3

 

[lilidk]

Seider
Berggren
Raymond
Edvinsson
Johansson
Cossa
Veleno
Buium
Neiderbach
Tuomisto

top 10 fight me

Silly

 

[MBH]

52 games in an SHL regular season.

2.76 goals per game = 143.52 average per team
Here's the stats for the 20-21 season. 7 teams scored below the average.
Elite Prospects - Swedish Hockey League (SHL)

2.66 goals per game = 138.32 average per team
Here's the stats for the 19-20 season. 8 teams scored below the average.
Elite Prospects - Swedish Hockey League (SHL)

It's not a huge jump like you're suggesting. There was more parity in the SHL last season than the year before if you look at how the bottom of the half of the league did when compared to the top half of the league. This isn't the jump from 1991-92 NHL to 1992-93 NHL.

Also, and again, where are you getting your stats from? It was 18 players at 0.75ppg in 2019-20 with 2 more players at 0.74ppg.

Eliteprospects.
30 games played filter.

 

[WF19]

Seider
Berggren
Raymond
Edvinsson
Johansson
Cossa
Veleno
Buium
Neiderbach
Tuomisto

top 10 fight me

I like it. Though I do like Soderblom. Either way that's a sexy list if prospects.

 

[WF19]

Didnt read the whole thread and too lazy to look at up but didn't Berggen do something note worthy last year?

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

And what would you explain the higher scoring with?

In the past couple of seasons there has been some rule-changes that should affect scoring, and also who does the scoring.

In an attempt to make goalie interference etc. easier to rule they have tinkered with the goalie interference rule over the past seasons with the effect that it's more difficult to score those greasy "net-front battle" goals than it was a few years ago.

Similarly to what the NHL did a few years ago, for the 20-21 season there was a big change in how the refs called interference, they have been much more stringent about calling interference (especially stick-infractions). At the beginning of the season this lead to A LOT of PP opportunities, and a lot more 5 vs 3 PP opportunities.

Something we can see easily from the data is that Powerplays has become much more efficient this season, which means that players that regularly get PP time will see an increase in their production.

Something that isn't as easy to dig out from the data (would require some effort) is that due to the more stringent interference rulings we should see an increased production of the "skilled" players. The guys that try to deke through 4 players and then set up a free team mate should have been able to do so more easily in the 20-21 season than what they did before.

So if I were to guess, which is supported by MBHs numbers, is that we should see a more differentiated point distribution where players that rely on skill and get PP time should produce more, whereas the 4th liners that rely on greasy goals should produce less.

 

[lilidk]

Berggren shouldve been 2nd

i believe 19 year old Raymond will have easier NHL transition than Berggren .
Next season hope to see Raymond or Berggren playing with Vrana