I mean, you're both half right/half wrong here. The CBA caps an increase at 5% maximum annually, so you literally can't go 6-8% increase per year.
But they will absolutely see the maximum increase for the next 3-5 years while the cap catches up to revenue. League revenue hasn't stopped increasing. Since the 04-05 lockout it averages about a $200M+ increase annually. The cap has failed to rise with it due to the COVID debt, which will be paid off after this year.
As it stands right now, the cap is set at $83.5M, which adjusts to about $5.3B league revenue. The pre-season estimate for 22-23 was $5.7B, but Bettman said as recently as a month ago that it was around $6B. So even if you assume there's no revenue growth in 23-24, $6B revenue would mean the cap
should be $93.75M.
With the max 5% increase that means it can only go up:
$87.675M in 24-25
$92.05M in 25-26
So yeah, revenue would have to
decrease over the next 2 years in order for the league to not max out on cap increases. That ain't happening.
We will see a sizeable increase next year in the 6-8m area as teams have been waiting for the escrow balance to level out and have wanted it badly.
The 5% escalator people need to understand how this works though.
You may increase by 5% but in reality the entire 5% could go to increased escrow if the revenue increase truly isn’t there.
What this also means is you can see a 50% compounded increase in the cap in just 8 years.
So 83.50 can be 120 in an 8 year period. That 8 year period is important as it was specifically chosen by the NHLPA as the max contract length.
It goes to show that when a player signs for say 8m in 2023 and is taking 10% of the teams cap that when this contract ends it will only be 6-7% of the cap.
This is why players in the Initial cap era got hosed badly.
The problem now and it’s a huge problem Is GMs just aren’t thinking long term.
Debrincat at even 8m is going to consume close to 10% of your cap space. 10% for a player who is not the driving factor on the team.
When any player gets a contract above the 8.375m level it specifically means you must increase the number of ELCs or players making less than 1.5 on your team by at least 1 more player.
Ottawa in particular has done a very very good job at paying top line players in line with the 8.375m to 8.875m threshold.
That is right now what a top line player should make if you want a competitively balanced 4 line team.
GMs need to start placing slot values on specific positions on their roster which would then not require such crazy salary caps.
Second line players for instance you want to aim for 4.875m to 6.125m.
If GMs were to properly assign slot values for specific 1/2/3/4 line roles as well as Top 2/4/6 D men it would allow for a more balanced team.
Right now two teams specifically are moving towards this model.
Buffalo and Ottawa.
The idea is something like.
Forwards total: 62%
Defence total: 28%
Goaltender total: 10%
If you look at those budgets.
8.35m for starter and backup goalies. So 5-6m for a starter and 2.35-3.35 for your 1b or backup.
Defence 23.35m total. The second you give your top D man 8-10m it already makes a balanced cap almost impossible.
To make it work again your doing something like 9/7/5/5/2/2.
Even then this is 2m over and assumes you get your bottom pairing at just 2m a pop. Even finding 3/4 for 5M a pop is super challenging.
If done right you get 51.75m for forwards.
Now here’s the issue. You take just 2 players like McDavid/drai or Matthews/marner and quite literally it only works if you have teams being paid to take on your cap.
Right now a team like Edmonton would have just $31m to fill out the entire bottom 9 while paying for one more top line forward.
If you start looking at the slot models more and more you realize quickly GMs must force average players or fringe players to always play for less and less even if your salary cap is increasing by sizeable amounts.
What it means is paying 4 players on one team more than saying 8.375m a piece is going to result in the GM having to use less than desirable players for the Top D or will have to use a 3/4 line where at a minimum 4 players are on league minimum salaries.
People just need to consider slot values. Debrincat is a good player but a dollar above 8.375m is Just not ideal for a successful team.
