Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[Mr Positive]

I hope Nurse and his agent aren't waiting on Trouba's numbers. Trouba is signing his third contract and is arbitration eligible. Nurse is signing his second contract and is not arbitration eligible, Trouba's contract really shouldn't be used as a comparable.

I'm also not sure how the Benning signing is a problem. He's only got slightly worse NHL numbers than Nurse, and is signed to a $1.9M AAV bridge on his second contract. Nurse played a lot more minutes last year, but that does that translate to that much of a difference in pay?

If we bridge Nurse, it should be absolutely no more than $3.5M IMO.

I would be anything that the issue here is exactly what Nurse's agent said to the media. He said that with the Oilers' cap space, a long term deal is a no go. Since he was making an issue of this, it is likely to me that Chia is taking a hard line on insisting for a long term deal. The cash remaining is the number that Chia is willing to go to for that, so we are talking about a number like 4.5 AAV. Nurse's agent probably wants more than 5

The other option to me is that Chia has other moves he is working on, moves that would change his stance on Nurse, and maybe even a trade that involves Nurse. Maybe even Karlsson.

 

[Aceboogie]

Bennings analytics look good because Mclellen uses him in offensive situations against weak competition. When he was used in the top 4 he struggled hard. Even defensively on the bottom pairing he struggled badly at times.

The analytics community overrates him. The old school hockey community underrates him.

In 16/17 this couldnt be further from the truth. His numbers actually improved when we was played with Sekera in the top 4. And it wasnt for an insignificant amount of time, he played roughly 1/3 of his time with Sekera. But I also think a big reason for it was that Sekera was so good that year and helped him big time. But Sekeras stats were still better with Benning than with Russell

In 17/18 he struggled in the middle pairing, but again, not as much as people want to claim. Hes a solid bottom pairing D with upside

 

[Aceboogie]

So when should we book a group eye exam? Just to make sure these eye tests aren’t messed up due to ooor vision?

Every sports fan needs to read at minimum two pages of Amos Tversky and the flaws in humans decision making

 

[nabob]

Ya I can tell by those types of comments that you have some sort of unjustified bias vs the player.

I think more than half the team could have been sent down at some point if you are using "took a step back" as your criteria for "AHL player".

All the following players had difficult and underperforming stretches during the season where board members here were actively crapping on their play... and by your definition they should be AHL players as well... because most of the team benefitted by playing with McDavid as well... especially considering McDavid was in on over 46% of the team's goals:

Lucic
Kassian
Klefbom
Sekera
Caggiula
Letestu
Slepyshev
Cammalleri
Russell
Strome
Talbot
Brossoit
Puljujarvi
Montoya
Larsson

I’m saying that him be able to benefit playing with McDavid isn’t any reason to say he was good. It’s inconsequential, you’re trying to use it as a reason why he’s great, he isn’t. Especially since he plays defense and isn’t partnered with McDavid. I don’t believe I am unjustified in saying that if he was a LHD that he likely would have only ever had a cup of coffee in the NHL so far in his career. Tons of people to start last season were saying Benning = Nurse, that was proven very wrong as one guy elevated his play to top pairing level most of the season and the other struggled to stay on the bottom pair most of the season.

 

[PaPaDee]

I would be anything that the issue here is exactly what Nurse's agent said to the media. He said that with the Oilers' cap space, a long term deal is a no go. Since he was making an issue of this, it is likely to me that Chia is taking a hard line on insisting for a long term deal. The cash remaining is the number that Chia is willing to go to for that, so we are talking about a number like 4.5 AAV. Nurse's agent probably wants more than 5

The other option to me is that Chia has other moves he is working on, moves that would change his stance on Nurse, and maybe even a trade that involves Nurse. Maybe even Karlsson.

I don't think we'd even be able to offer Nurse $4.5/year, unless there's other cap clearing moves, given that we'd probably still like to add another forward to the roster, as well as have a bit of a buffer.

 

[Louis Cypher]

Dumba just got $6m. Tuba will be over $5m I think. No way Nurse is under $4.5 unless it's a bridge.

 

[shoop]

Dumba just got $6m. Tuba will be over $5m I think. No way Nurse is under $4.5 unless it's a bridge.

Yup.

Nurse will only take a bridge so the point is kind of moot.

He doesn't really have as much leverage as his agent appears to think. Doubtful a team is willing to give the Oilers a first and a third to sign Nurse.

I suspect Nurse will sign a bridge, but if not a bridge I think the qualifying offer is more likely than a long term deal.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Dumba just got $6m. Tuba will be over $5m I think. No way Nurse is under $4.5 unless it's a bridge.

Trouba is better than Dumba

 

[780il]

Why is this taking so long? Wonder why. Maybe waiting for numbers on Trouba, Dumba just put pen to paper. Ryan Murray signed already.

 

[shoop]

Why is this taking so long? Wonder why. Maybe waiting for numbers on Trouba, Dumba just put pen to paper. Ryan Murray signed already.

Nurse's agent got tough. Not exactly sure why. Good on Chia waiting him out.

 

[nabob]

Its incredulous you would be accused of "big brother" supporting me. You calling me out is fine, its part of interaction, but unlike another poster you don't stalk the people you happen to disagree with. You just post and reply, within reason.

It’s like I can hear you breathing right behind me you stalk me so much. Creeeeepy.

 

[nabob]

Why is this taking so long? Wonder why. Maybe waiting for numbers on Trouba, Dumba just put pen to paper. Ryan Murray signed already.

Seems like Chia for once is doing negotiations the right way. Nurse hasn’t earned a big money deal yet. No need to cave to his agents demands.

 

[Mr Positive]

Nurse's agent got tough. Not exactly sure why. Good on Chia waiting him out.

exactly. Right now we are looking at Dumba getting 6 million, and that is for 50 points. Nurse gave half that, and less than half over a longer period really. It's not like Nurse gives such amazing defense either. I mean, he's very good, but he's not as good as Larsson at that.

Like for instance, if we signed Nurse for 5 years like Dumba, I don't see why we would offer over 4 million now. That would set Dumba as worth 50% more than Nurse, and quite frankly he is.

And I think we can take a bit of a hard line with him on insisting on not getting a bridge. We are building a core here, and have marked him as part of the core, and that means we want some cost stability with him over a long time. If he has dreams of Dumba money if only he could develop another year or two, now is the time to sell him on taking the safer route. Since he's not really a top end skill in any one area, his value could be in danger of going down.

 

[shoop]

Like for instance, if we signed Nurse for 5 years like Dumba, I don't see why we would offer over 4 million now. That would set Dumba as worth 50% more than Nurse, and quite frankly he is.

And I think we can take a bit of a hard line with him on insisting on not getting a bridge. We are building a core here, and have marked him as part of the core, and that means we want some cost stability with him over a long time. If he has dreams of Dumba money if only he could develop another year or two, now is the time to sell him on taking the safer route. Since he's not really a top end skill in any one area, his value could be in danger of going down.

If the Oilers are willing to risk Nurse accepting his QO then I guess they could push for a long-term deal at a reasonable number.

A bridge at a lower number seems the most reasonable path forward.

 

[Mr Positive]

If the Oilers are willing to risk Nurse accepting his QO then I guess they could push for a long-term deal at a reasonable number.

A bridge at a lower number seems the most reasonable path forward.

I absolutely hate that though. Bridge deals should be only for players that you are unsure about. Like for instance, if we had to re-sign Puljujarvi right now a bridge would be appropriate. Nurse has proven enough and shown clear progression.

imo bridging Nurse right now would be a consequence of poor management, particularly poor cap management. Just like with Subban in Montreal, it's a high risk, low reward play to bridge him.

And btw, I've defended Chia's cap management up till now. I know he's had some rough deals, but I say those deals were as high as they were for good reason, and ultimately it doesn't matter how tight the cap is as long as it is carefully coordinated and managed. If Nurse were bridged now, it would be the first sign to me that our cap is not being managed properly at all, and that our core is in serious risk because of it. It's a temporary solution with a stiff penalty in the future.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I absolutely hate that though. Bridge deals should be only for players that you are unsure about. Like for instance, if we had to re-sign Puljujarvi right now a bridge would be appropriate. Nurse has proven enough and shown clear progression.

imo bridging Nurse right now would be a consequence of poor management, particularly poor cap management. Just like with Subban in Montreal, it's a high risk, low reward play to bridge him.

And btw, I've defended Chia's cap management up till now. I know he's had some rough deals, but I say those deals were as high as they were for good reason, and ultimately it doesn't matter how tight the cap is as long as it is carefully coordinated and managed. If Nurse were bridged now, it would be the first sign to me that our cap is not being managed properly at all, and that our core is in serious risk because of it. It's a temporary solution with a stiff penalty in the future.

What a fantastic objective post and for the reasons you stated. The bolded are especially powerful statements.

The only part I disagree with is that you had not seen the contractual concerns earlier. Many pundits had indicted that due to Chia's overspending on almost any contract that the Talbot and Nurse contracts would be difficult down the road. Comments about that were heard all the way back to Lucic and Klefbom and Russell contracts. I've posited that we probably lose Talbot outright for contractual reasons.

 

[Joey Moss]

Does anyone have the numbers for points Nurse picked up off Mcdavid via either first or secondary assists? Would be interesting to know how he scored his 26 points.

Assists are assists. Secondary assists are equally important for starting a play. The whole secondary assist argument is so dumb to me. Might as well just get rid of the secondary assist right?

 

[syz]

Nurse couldn't carry Subban's jock so I'm not exactly sure it's a comparison we should be making.

 

[shoop]

And btw, I've defended Chia's cap management up till now. I know he's had some rough deals, but I say those deals were as high as they were for good reason, and ultimately it doesn't matter how tight the cap is as long as it is carefully coordinated and managed. If Nurse were bridged now, it would be the first sign to me that our cap is not being managed properly at all, and that our core is in serious risk because of it. It's a temporary solution with a stiff penalty in the future.

You see the player as having no impact on this?

Since you are accusing Chia of managing the cap poorly, what number should Nurse sign a long-term deal for?

What if Nurse's agent wouldn't even accept that number?

 

[nabob]

I absolutely hate that though. Bridge deals should be only for players that you are unsure about. Like for instance, if we had to re-sign Puljujarvi right now a bridge would be appropriate. Nurse has proven enough and shown clear progression.

imo bridging Nurse right now would be a consequence of poor management, particularly poor cap management. Just like with Subban in Montreal, it's a high risk, low reward play to bridge him.

And btw, I've defended Chia's cap management up till now. I know he's had some rough deals, but I say those deals were as high as they were for good reason, and ultimately it doesn't matter how tight the cap is as long as it is carefully coordinated and managed. If Nurse were bridged now, it would be the first sign to me that our cap is not being managed properly at all, and that our core is in serious risk because of it. It's a temporary solution with a stiff penalty in the future.

We are sure that Nurse is a top 4 Dman. Are we sure he had the offense to pay him like a top pairing Dman for 7-8 years at Dumba like money?

I’m not and I’m a huge fan of Nurse. Worst case scenario with bridging him is that you get him for two years at a decent price ($3.5Mish) and he develops into a 45-50 point top pairing guy and you end up having to pay him Dumba money then instead of just giving him Dumba money now and hoping he develops more offense.

 

[Mr Positive]

What a fantastic objective post and for the reasons you stated. The bolded are especially powerful statements.

The only part I disagree with is that you had not seen the contractual concerns earlier. Many pundits had indicted that due to Chia's overspending on almost any contract that the Talbot and Nurse contracts would be difficult down the road. Comments about that were heard all the way back to Lucic and Klefbom and Russell contracts. I've posited that we probably lose Talbot outright for contractual reasons.

I really disagree with the premise that comparables within a team are what is most important. It's only a huge factor on teams in cities with really high or low taxes. Edmonton is very average there. League-wide comparables are what is important. Klefbom got what he got not because of internal comparables. He was compared to someone like Brodin or Larsson.

I started getting worried after the Russell contract. Up till then, I had actually been able to discern the cap strategy. Contracts would come off the books just in time for raises, and assuming conservative cap growth it all seemed well coordinated. The Russell contract came with a crippling NMC. The cash is okay considering league wide comparables, but that doesn't matter if the cash doesn't fit into the close coordination of the cap.

 

[Mr Positive]

We are sure that Nurse is a top 4 Dman. Are we sure he had the offense to pay him like a top pairing Dman for 7-8 years at Dumba like money?

I’m not and I’m a huge fan of Nurse. Worst case scenario with bridging him is that you get him for two years at a decent price ($3.5Mish) and he develops into a 45-50 point top pairing guy and you end up having to pay him Dumba money then.

If you wait two years, the cap will be bigger and any deal we make will have less RFA years. Those two factors alone probably add a million bucks to the AAV. I would say that Nurse has a realistic chance at ending up on our top pairing as well, considering that we lack true top pairing talent. And of course we could say that he's only there because of lack of elite talent to challenge him, but we will lose that argument with Nurse's agent because he will have all the stats on his side such as TOI, and if the team improves like I think it will, he will get decent points as well as a high plus minus. 6 million is very realistic for Nurse after his bridge deal.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I really disagree with the premise that comparables within a team are what is most important. It's only a huge factor on teams in cities with really high or low taxes. Edmonton is very average there. League-wide comparables are what is important. Klefbom got what he got not because of internal comparables. He was compared to someone like Brodin or Larsson.

I started getting worried after the Russell contract. Up till then, I had actually been able to discern the cap strategy. Contracts would come off the books just in time for raises, and assuming conservative cap growth it all seemed well coordinated. The Russell contract came with a crippling NMC. The cash is okay considering league wide comparables, but that doesn't matter if the cash doesn't fit into the close coordination of the cap.

I haven't said different in the reply. A contract has to fit what the cap structure of the team is to some extent. Otherwise you back yourself into a corner on last contracts. Comparable will always be used by agents. They're lawyers and precedent is king. Its their system of thought and how else do you establish value? I think its flawed tbh as the kinds of things compared are pretty basic. Pts and the like. With Nurse its harder to quantify what he's worth because which other players are willing to do every role from fighting, to playing up or down lineup to being abrasive, playing solid D, supporting attack. How many D bring EVERYTHING like that. There isn't any facet you would want from a D that Nurse isn't good at. He's very well rounded as an asset. Combine this with a solid character guy that does nothing but improve and that is very self driven and barely requires any coaching related maintenance. Theres just no flaws in this guy and he'll stand up for anybody. How do you really account for what he's worth. Because guaranteed his comparables won't be all that.

The thing I can't really understand is if you are the Nurse Camp why do you allow this to drag down after guys like Cagg and Strome get overpaid? It seems you would want first dibs and certainly Nurse is more important signing than the other two. So why be the last? When $ is limited it makes no sense. Nurse's agent should have fought hard to get this one done before the others.

 

[shoop]

The thing I can't really understand is if you are the Nurse Camp why do you allow this to drag down after guys like Cagg and Strome get overpaid? It seems you would want first dibs and certainly Nurse is more important signing than the other two. So why be the last? When $ is limited it makes no sense. Nurse's agent should have fought hard to get this one done before the others.

Come on Drive. Caggiula got a $150K raise. Strome got a $600K raise. Far from overpays in either case.

If Nurse would have been willing to take 'only' a million dollar raise he would have been signed a long time ago. Nurse is looking to make big money. If Nurse wanted this to get done early he could have taken less money.

 

[nabob]

If you wait two years, the cap will be bigger and any deal we make will have less RFA years. Those two factors alone probably add a million bucks to the AAV. I would say that Nurse has a realistic chance at ending up on our top pairing as well, considering that we lack true top pairing talent. And of course we could say that he's only there because of lack of elite talent to challenge him, but we will lose that argument with Nurse's agent because he will have all the stats on his side such as TOI, and if the team improves like I think it will, he will get decent points as well as a high plus minus. 6 million is very realistic for Nurse after his bridge deal.

$6M if he continues to improve would be perfect.

If we’re signing him long term right now he’d be wanting $5.5ish I would think.