Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[Drivesaitl]

If he was our best D 2 seasons ago that would've carried much more weight. Last season we had a hobbled Sekera that came back mid season, Larsson with a bad back and Klefbom playing through injury. He was likely our best D last season but perspective is needed.

The opposite side of the coin is how absolutely incredible it is that Darnell was able to have a fantastic year in a year in which the other D, and the goaltending was struggling. How do you even end up being +15 on a club as bad as the Oilers were.

I actually think its EASIER to look good in a year like 16-17. For instance Klefbom. I think a good team can provide illusion of certain players being better than they are. In bad years players, particularly D and goalies usually get exposed. Yet Nurse was stellar. Its even more impressive.

 

[joestevens29]

Also being the best on this defense when all things are clicking isn't exactly that great. We are a team that really has no top pairing dmen.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Why not say that from the start and be honest?

Who was a solid 3C option that can play top 6 minutes on wing in an emergency who was available for $3M or less?

Caggiula at $1.5 M isn't an overpay in an actual sense of the word. You don't like the player. I get it. He is worth $1.5M for what he brings. Do find some magic beans that will provide better output at a much lower salary.

I've consistently always stated we should just turf Caggiulia. he isn't worth anything at this level because he doesn't withstand NHL play. You have runt fill players like this in your lineup at cost of losing. He adds nothing to warrant being a mainstay in an NHL lineup. That he gets topsix player here and PP looks is obscene.

 

[PaPaDee]

Come on Drive. Caggiula got a $150K raise. Strome got a $600K raise. Far from overpays in either case.

If Nurse would have been willing to take 'only' a million dollar raise he would have been signed a long time ago. Nurse is looking to make big money. If Nurse wanted this to get done early he could have taken less money.

Strome was actually making $3M in real dollars, so he really only got a 100K raise.

 

[shoop]

I've consistently always stated we should just turf Caggiulia. he isn't worth anything at this level because he doesn't withstand NHL play. You have runt fill players like this in your lineup at cost of losing. He adds nothing to warrant being a mainstay in an NHL lineup. That he gets topsix player here and PP looks is obscene.

Runt? So nasty.

I completely agree Caggiula shouldn't be a top six player. Thankfully he is being paid like a bottom six winger.

Strome was actually making $3M in real dollars, so he really only got a 100K raise.

If we are being that pedantic Strome is making $3M in 2018-19 so no raise at all.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I mean it's better that he too the step up vs. being bad like they were, but it's easier to shine vs. your peers when they aren't doing very well.



It really was. If we bridge Darnell and he continues to be our best D going forward then we start talking about $5 million or more as his AAV long term. I don't see him being a 60 point guy that commands $8 million AAV so IMO a bridge deal is the way to go here.

We bridge then and lose the player. In two years it will be real clear what I'm saying about this player being our best D.

Nurse is a can't miss player. Easy as they come to make a decision on. You know you get value with this player. I was never sold on this much for Sekera as you know and never sold on Klefbom as anything more than a 1B or 2B defender that is heavily reliant on an alpha D partner.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The Brodziak and Rieder signings are really growing on me. Both filled a need. Good winger and solid 4C. They are also both solid PK guys. An immediate upgrade on our first unit PK has huge benefits throughout the lineup.

I think that they'll be huge, but the real driving forces for us next season will be if Drai can go beast mode (80ish points), Nuge can help get Connor to otherworldly totals and career bests for himself (70ish points), the younger guys step up and become key contributors (Pulju, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Caggiula, Benning, Rattie), will the defense finally be healthy, special teams and goaltending.

The opposite side of the coin is how absolutely incredible it is that Darnell was able to have a fantastic year in a year in which the other D, and the goaltending was struggling. How do you even end up being +15 on a club as bad as the Oilers were.

I actually think its EASIER to look good in a year like 16-17. For instance Klefbom. I think a good team can provide illusion of certain players being better than they are. In bad years players, particularly D and goalies usually get exposed. Yet Nurse was stellar. Its even more impressive.

I'd agree if the majority of the other players issues weren't injury related. +15 on our tire fire of a team is damn good, but to be fair he didn't spend much time with our 2 worst offenders last season in Klefbom and Sekera.

What would you be willing to pay Darnell long term?

 

[Aerchon]

Several slight overpays will have a tendency to add up, but I'd put the majority of the problem on Lucic and Russell--particularly the latter, who everybody should have known would have been a mistake as soon as somebody like Nurse achieved even a modicum of a forward step in development. Low and behold we were proven right within like a month.

The trickle down of that Sekera injury really just blew a tire off of this team's cap.

Personally I only see the NMC as being stupid. And really as long as Russell can be moved next year it will be a moot point.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

We bridge then and lose the player. In two years it will be real clear what I'm saying about this player being our best D.

Nurse is a can't miss player. Easy as they come to make a decision on. You know you get value with this player. I was never sold on this much for Sekera as you know and never sold on Klefbom as anything more than a 1B or 2B defender that is heavily reliant on an alpha D partner.

Why would we lose him in 2 years? By then we likely free up $9.5 million between Sekera and Russell and can afford a cheap 3rd pairing replacement for them who could be on an ELC.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I think that they'll be huge, but the real driving forces for us next season will be if Drai can go beast mode (80ish points), Nuge can help get Connor to otherworldly totals and career bests for himself (70ish points), the younger guys step up and become key contributors (Pulju, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Caggiula, Benning, Rattie), will the defense finally be healthy, special teams and goaltending.



I'd agree if the majority of the other players issues weren't injury related. +15 on our tire fire of a team is damn good, but to be fair he didn't spend much time with our 2 worst offenders last season in Klefbom and Sekera.

What would you be willing to pay Darnell long term?

Not much over 5. If it HAD to be 5.25-5.5M and nothing short of that gets the deal done then I do it. Would offer 4.75-5M longterm and go from there. Not that we can do that anyway with the cap situation.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Why would we lose him in 2 years? By then we likely free up $9.5 million between Sekera and Russell and can afford a cheap 3rd pairing replacement for them who could be on an ELC.

Nurse will increase in value and price out of our range. That's what I'm saying. In a bridge deal he will be that player that we wish we signed longterm. He will attract a lot of interest. The very real risk here is that this is a bridge deal with a good to very good D here that is entering prime years and that brings everything that NHL teams want in a D. The likelihood that he doesn't increase value in a bridge deal is remote.

Are you forgetting about signing Talbot? He was our most important player in 16-17. Even more important than McD that season.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Not much over 5. If it HAD to be 5.25-5.5M and nothing short of that gets the deal done then I do it. Would offer 4.75-5M longterm and go from there. Not that we can do that anyway with the cap situation.

Fair numbers IMO.

 

[Aceboogie]

Nurse will increase in value and price out of our range. That's what I'm saying. In a bridge deal he will be that player that we wish we signed longterm. He will attract a lot of interest. The very real risk here is that this is a bridge deal with a good to very good D here that is entering prime years and that brings everything that NHL teams want in a D. The likelihood that he doesn't increase value in a bridge deal is remote.

This is an nut shell. I agree completely

Nurse is the kind of D that GMs love, sometime irrationally. But nevertheless, a bridge is incredibly risky with limited upside

 

[syz]

Nurse brings everything that NHL teams want in a second pairing defenseman.

For him to price his way out of anything would involve him showing for the first time in his career thus far that he isn't completely inept in the offensive zone and can contribute offensively in ways outside of secondary assists on McDavid plays.

Considering that he's realistically (and deservedly) 5th in line for significant PP time next season, I don't think there's really going to be an issue there.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Nurse will increase in value and price out of our range. That's what I'm saying. In a bridge deal he will be that player that we wish we signed longterm. He will attract a lot of interest. The very real risk here is that this is a bridge deal with a good to very good D here that is entering prime years and that brings everything that NHL teams want in a D. The likelihood that he doesn't increase value in a bridge deal is remote.

Are you forgetting about signing Talbot? He was our most important player in 16-17. Even more important than McD that season.

Talbot needs to rebound before we consider locking him up. After next season we could theoretically trade Sekera or Russell if need be.

 

[LaGu]

The player had 26EV pts, was +15 and was our best D on the season of work. The only one healthy for 82GP as well.

He is knocking on the door for top 30 in EV scoring. That is something Larsson had for him in NJD, which I think is pretty damn valuable. Looking at the D ahead of Nurse in EV scoring I don't know anyone who actually makes (or is expected to make) less than we think he get.

That said, $3.5M bridge is pretty much all we can afford. If they like it or not, that is the reality. Seeing the salary inflation going forward I cannot see any downside in taking that right now. So I don't know what they are waiting for.... unless they are keeping him there for a potential trade.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Talbot needs to rebound before we consider locking him up. After next season we could theoretically trade Sekera or Russell if need be.

At age and relative health the Sekera and Russell contracts are untradeable.

Talbot is the real deal. He had twins, very little sleep, bit of an off season, but the team in front of him was junk.

Here is the book on Talbot. He looks at team play. If the team is playing well he'll hit it out of the ballpark. When the team is disengaged he can get that way too. He will say its his fault and mean it, he's a standup guy, but he's influenced by how the team plays around him. Most competitive goalies are. Remove there being a point in competition, i.e. playoff possibilities, and it makes it harder for him.

he's a money player with it on the line. If theres nothing to play for he won't look like an allstar.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

At age and relative health the Sekera and Russell contracts are untradeable.

Talbot is the real deal. He had twins, very little sleep, bit of an off season, but the team in front of him was junk.

Here is the book on Talbot. He looks at team play. If the team is playing well he'll hit it out of the ballpark. When the team is disengaged he can get that way too. He will say its his fault and mean it, he's a standup guy, but he's influenced by how the team plays around him. Most competitive goalies are. Remove there being a point in competition, i.e. playoff possibilities, and it makes it harder for him.

he's a money player with it on the line. If theres nothing to play for he won't look like an allstar.

If we buy Sekera out after next season we get a $3 million savings for the first 2 years and a $1.5 million loss of cap for the remaining 2. That said I could see us trading him and retaining some salary.

 

[shoop]

I think that they'll be huge, but the real driving forces for us next season will be if Drai can go beast mode (80ish points), Nuge can help get Connor to otherworldly totals and career bests for himself (70ish points), the younger guys step up and become key contributors (Pulju, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Caggiula, Benning, Rattie), will the defense finally be healthy, special teams and goaltending.

Fingers crossed Koskinen is also a good signing. Talbot can't be a 65+ game starting goalie. He's just not built for that. In the past three years the Oilers have gone with bargain basement backups who weren't ready to play significant games. 50 starts for Talbot and 32 for Koskinen would be ideal.

 

[syz]

He is knocking on the door for top 30 in EV scoring. That is something Larsson had for him in NJD, which I think is pretty damn valuable. Looking at the D ahead of Nurse in EV scoring I don't know anyone who actually makes (or is expected to make) less than we think he get.

That said, $3.5M bridge is pretty much all we can afford. If they like it or not, that is the reality. Seeing the salary inflation going forward I cannot see any downside in taking that right now. So I don't know what they are waiting for.... unless they are keeping him there for a potential trade.

Nurse's most common on-ice teammates this season were Larsson, McDavid, and Draisaitl. Wonder how he managed to get some even strength points... truly a mystery.

Literally nobody on the team played more minutes with McDavid this year than Nurse, and he managed to put up.... 26 whole points. First ballot hall of fame.

Like, seriously, which games were you people watching? Cause I was watching the ones where he routinely made life miserable for McDavid in the offensive zone, and I just want to make sure that I'm not living in the f***ing Twilight Zone here.

 

[Aerchon]

At age and relative health the Sekera and Russell contracts are untradeable.

Talbot is the real deal. He had twins, very little sleep, bit of an off season, but the team in front of him was junk.

Here is the book on Talbot. He looks at team play. If the team is playing well he'll hit it out of the ballpark. When the team is disengaged he can get that way too. He will say its his fault and mean it, he's a standup guy, but he's influenced by how the team plays around him. Most competitive goalies are. Remove there being a point in competition, i.e. playoff possibilities, and it makes it harder for him.

he's a money player with it on the line. If theres nothing to play for he won't look like an allstar.

Russell had a solid year and isn't that old. His actual paydays after this year are 2.5 and then 1.5. Intentionally low imo to make him great trade bait for teams with cap space and cheap owners.

Sekera if he is healthy is easily worth 5.5 in today's NHL. If he is healthy tho I much prefer him to Klefbom personally.

Russell very tradable. Sekera depends on health and play. Love to see him hit 40 points this year and make Klefbom redundant.

If Talbots book is he reads the effort level of his team before he even makes a single save, let's in a back breaker softie on the first shot, and then proceeds to play terrible.... we really don't want a player with that "book".

Talbot was terrible last year. The defense as well but it's very very very easy to say Talbot was brutal independent of the defense. No one should be able to say otherwise with a straight face.

Talbot is easily arguable as the worst player on our team last year. Lucic and Klefbom also having seats at that table.

 

[Spawn]

I feel like the people here who keep arguing for a long term deal for Nurse right now are missing a fundamental truth.

We don't have the cap space for it.

We have just under 5M in cap space and still need to sign a 14th forward. Even if that 14thF was on a league minimum cap hit we'd only have 4.3M to sign Nurse. The player is not going to sign a long term deal at that amount of money.

That is the repercussion of all these tiny overpays that people have been saying don't matter.

As it stands today the only option is a bridge deal.

 

[shoop]

I feel like the people here who keep arguing for a long term deal for Nurse right now are missing a fundamental truth.

We don't have the cap space for it.

That is the repercussion of all these tiny overpays that people have been saying don't matter.

That's all correct, but it's fine.

You don't want to commit to a long-term contract for Nurse at this point.

A two-year bridge works out well. A three-year bridge would be ideal.

I don't think Nurse has proven enough to have earned a long-term deal.

If it's a two-year deal and he has earned a long-term deal then Sekera, Russell and Larsson could all potentially be moved.

 

[Aerchon]

I feel like the people here who keep arguing for a long term deal for Nurse right now are missing a fundamental truth.

We don't have the cap space for it.

We have just under 5M in cap space and still need to sign a 14th forward. Even if that 14thF was on a league minimum cap hit we'd only have 4.3M to sign Nurse. The player is not going to sign a long term deal at that amount of money.

That is the repercussion of all these tiny overpays that people have been saying don't matter.

As it stands today the only option is a bridge deal.

This isn't true.

13th & 14th forward can be a low dollar ELC guy. Move out Kassian sign Nurse long term. Not recommended but possible.

Move Lucic...

Move Klefbom. If Sekera is "unmovable" and everyone agrees Nurse will be better why even wait? Klefbom is obviously going to have to be moved.

Move RNH. Terrible move I hope doesn't happen.

It's summer. Bridge is 99% likely but we got to chat about something.

 

[shoop]

Move Klefbom. If Sekera is "unmovable" and everyone agrees Nurse will be better why even wait? Klefbom is obviously going to have to be moved.

Not sure if I agree Klefbom has to be moved.

A bridge on Nurse gives the Oilers another year to see if Klefbom can really stay healthy. Was 2016-17 an illusion?

Trading Klefa now is the ultimate sell low move. If the Oilers bridge Nurse and see what shakes out this year that's the more judicious move. There is no guarantee that Nurse or Klefbom work out long-term.