Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[Spawn]

Pretty simple question.

Do you go long term on the player? Likely at a deal somewhere between 4-5M.

Or do you bridge him hoping you can save enough space to hopefully squeeze in one more good player over the next couple years while he's on a bridge deal and deal with the potential repercussions in 2-3 years?

He's been a tough player for me to get a read on. I severely underrated him going into this season. As a whole his season was very good. Played a lot of minutes most of it very solid defensive hockey, and had pretty dang strong offensive production considering his usage (tied with Parayko at 34th for d-men at ES). Even with that production though, by my eye he's still pretty ineffective from the blue line in when it comes to offense. That is likely going to be the biggest factor in whether or not he can take yet another step forward. Considering how much he improved this season, I wouldn't bet against him.

There are still times where he gets a bit lost in his defensive end, but he cut back on those mistakes big time this year. As he gets more experience I imagine we'll see them even less frequently.

What to do, what to do.

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[Jet Walters]

I think in this case a bridge deal is best for all involved. From a cap perspective it makes sense to keep Nurse at a lower salary for a few years, at which point Sekera, Russell, or both could be gone.

 

[StevenF1919]

Bridge. At the beginning of the season I was pushing for a long term deal for him but his play fell off a cliff in December. He just hasn't been able to sustain his play over an extended period of time. Early this season he was looking like a legit top pairing player but he's going to have to show that for an entire year before this team commits to him long term.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

The Oilers can't afford to bridge him long-term, but can't afford not to short-term, if that makes sense.

 

[Soundwave]

How much money are you really saving by bridging?

$1 million? If it's something like that you're just better off seeing if he'll take a little more than Klefbom and locking him in.

Even on a bridge deal it seems like you'd be paying him $3 mill per ... I'd rather just lock him up at $4.5 long term if that's the case.

 

[LaGu]

He'll be UFA in the summer after 20/21 right?

Below $4.5M + long term (at least 3 UFA years), otherwise bridge for 2 two years. It's a gamble of course, but his ilk of D men has not gone up that much in price the last years and if by any chance he takes a huge step and blooms into a clearcut #1 then we can take that hit in a couple of years.

 

[McShogun99]

He's not worth more then Klefbom or Larsson. It's either long term at around 4 million or a bridge with a 10% raise.

 

[MessierII]

3 years 10 mil

 

[oobga]

I'd definitely bridge him. I don't think you have to worry about an offensive explosion (like 50 points) happening that totally messes us over having to give him a huge raise. Let's just see if he can keep developing into a solid defensive D and 30-40 point guy and then make the big commitment if he can take that next step.

Say a 2 year bridge. If he does well next season, maybe look at doing up the extension next summer when he has 1 year left on the bridge.

 

[belair]

The cap space we save today by bridging him is likely a lot more 'valuable' than the possible money we save in the later years of a long-term deal. Unless of course you foresee a huge offensive upside left in him, which doesn't seem overly realistic.

 

[Spawn]

Bridge. At the beginning of the season I was pushing for a long term deal for him but his play fell off a cliff in December. He just hasn't been able to sustain his play over an extended period of time. Early this season he was looking like a legit top pairing player but he's going to have to show that for an entire year before this team commits to him long term.

I'd be curious what you mean by "fell off a cliff" in December.

From December 1st onward in 56 games: He had 17 points, was +7 and was 2nd on the team in TOI after Klefbom.

I'd hope him "falling off a cliff" isn't purely related to shot metrics.

 

[FlameChampion]

I think you bridge him. I don’t think hes really shown enough to get a long term deal. He had a good first half but hes been average since. Theres not much offense to his game. He can skate the puck out of danger but he still makes questionable decisions with the puck. I like the player but he needs to show more.

 

[oXo Cube]

As always it depends on what he wants to do.

If you can get him to sign a clone of the Klefbom contract I would do it.

 

[SK13]

It was a good step forward year for him, but I do a bridge deal.

 

[LaGu]

How much money are you really saving by bridging?

$1 million? If it's something like that you're just better off seeing if he'll take a little more than Klefbom and locking him in.

Even on a bridge deal it seems like you'd be paying him $3 mill per ... I'd rather just lock him up at $4.5 long term if that's the case.

For me the question is how much will he progress from here on. Seeing that a lot of D of his ilk (and then some) have been taking $4-5M deals the last years, and really only the top ones getting big money, I'd bet that a bridge won't change the final price that much (and if it does it'll be a "good" problem to have). $1.5M per year in savings is not bad, and worth a lot at TD.

 

[Soundwave]

If he's willing to sign 4.5x7 years, I'd just do it.

Not worth having an extra $1 million in cap room, we're just gonna spend that money on some dumb UFA anyway that we should stay away from.

 

[Joey Moss]

Bridge. At the beginning of the season I was pushing for a long term deal for him but his play fell off a cliff in December. He just hasn't been able to sustain his play over an extended period of time. Early this season he was looking like a legit top pairing player but he's going to have to show that for an entire year before this team commits to him long term.

Fall off a cliff is a complete exaggeration, but he certainly had a bit of a drop off and for that I'd say bridge as well.

 

[Soundwave]

If you bridge him I could see something like

3 mill x 2 years

But then if he plays well, he's gonna want $5-$6 million after that and you have to consider cap inflation is likely to happen.

To me you're better off just signing him now $4.5 x 7 years if you can get it.

Even if his play dropped off some down the stretch, he was still better than Klefbom and Larsson and Russell this year, what are really the odds that you're not going to end up paying him $4+ mill anyway?

 

[shoop]

Fall off a cliff is a complete exaggeration, but he certainly had a bit of a drop off and for that I'd say bridge as well.

There has to be something between a bit of a drop off and fall off a cliff.

First half of the season he looked like a potential first pairing guy. Second half he was more of a 4/5.

Two or three years @ $3M per seems about right in total.

 

[Jet Walters]

If you bridge him it's going to be around 2.75 for two years, similar to the Dumba deal a few years ago. Dumba was coming off a 10 goal 26 point season at the time. Now Dumba is looking for a new deal coming off a 50 point season. In that case the Wild will regret doing a bridge, but does Nurse have the same offensive upside? I think not. Worst case he's looking for 5.5 or so in a few years instead of 4.5 it would take right now on a long term deal.

 

[Soundwave]

If you bridge him it's going to be around 2.75 for two years, similar to the Dumba deal a few years ago. Dumba was coming off a 10 goal 26 point season at the time. Now Dumba is looking for a new deal coming off a 50 point season. In that case the Wild will regret doing a bridge, but does Nurse have the same offensive upside? I think not. Worst case he's looking for 5.5 or so in a few years instead of 4.5 it would take right now on a long term deal.

Bridging Dumba was a mistake. He's now worth honestly $6+ million, they could've had him easy at 4 per. That's the risk you run.

To me it's not worth saving $1-$2 million for 2 years and getting dinged for the next 5-6-7 years.

 

[McAsuno]

He excelled this year for sure, but a bridge deal is still the better solution.

 

[Jet Walters]

Bridging Dumba was a mistake. He's now worth honestly $6+ million, they could've had him easy at 4 per. That's the risk you run.

To me it's not worth saving $1-$2 million for 2 years and getting dinged for the next 5-6-7 years.

It is a risk, but if we land a legit RHD this summer then Nurse will see very little PP time. He just wont have the offensive numbers to command huge money. I think it's better to make him earn that long term deal over the next few years than just hand it to him now and hope his development keeps trending upward. Plus we need the cap space in the next two years to upgrade on the wing, and it also gets the Oilers to the point where a Russell/Sekera can be moved freeing up cap for Nurse's next deal.

 

[Soundwave]

It is a risk, but if we land a legit RHD this summer then Nurse will see very little PP time. He just wont have the offensive numbers to command huge money. I think it's better to make him earn that long term deal over the next few years than just hand it to him now and hope his development keeps trending upward. Plus we need the cap space in the next two years to upgrade on the wing, and it also gets the Oilers to the point where a Russell/Sekera can be moved freeing up cap for Nurse's next deal.

I'd rather just trade Strome for futures and have a cap cushion from that. Our wing position is what it is, it's gonna be problematic for a while probably.

We gotta hope Yamamoto can step in and play next year.

 

[StevenF1919]

I'd be curious what you mean by "fell off a cliff" in December.

From December 1st onward in 56 games: He had 17 points, was +7 and was 2nd on the team in TOI after Klefbom.

I'd hope him "falling off a cliff" isn't purely related to shot metrics.

Maybe falling off a cliff was an exaggeration but his relative shot metrics and gf% dropped pretty severely, especially during his rough month in December. He was putting up insane possession and gf numbers at the beginning of the year while playing top pairing minutes. Obviously he wasn't going to sustain that but I definitely expected him to continue to play like a top pairing player for the rest of the season and I think everyone here can agree that he didn't. As @shoop said, he was closer to a #4 then the #1 that he was looking like for the first 2 months. Even with just the eye test, there was a pretty significant drop in his play.

I'm still a big fan and he's got a lot of great tools that make him a very good player. He's an elite skater and excellent at controlled zone entries but I'm not sure if he'll end up being anything more than a solid #3. Obviously that's still pretty great but I'd be careful giving him more than 4.5mil long term.

Fall off a cliff is a complete exaggeration, but he certainly had a bit of a drop off and for that I'd say bridge as well.

True. There was definitely a pretty big drop off though and his play has been disappointing in the last three quarters of the season.