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Prospect Info: Daniil Karpovich (#186 - 6th Round - 2023 Draft)

glenwo2

glenwo2

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“Karpovich has an NHL defenseman toolkit. He’s 6-foot-3, over 200 pounds already and skates like a pro. He has the mobility to escape pressure and turn pucks up ice at a high level. His defending is solid due to his reach and feet on top of having some physicality in his game. With his club, he showed playmaking and offence, including a hard point shot. He played in the worst division in the MHL though so there are some questions on whether that offence will translate to better competition. If it does, he could be a quality pro but there is a lot of risk on his projection too.” – Corey Pronman, The Athletic (from “2023 NHL Draft ranking: Connor Bedard leads Corey Pronman’s tiers of the top 142 prospects,” The Athletic – 05/30/2023)


Well of course there's risk....that's why he's drafted at this point.

It's basically a swing for the fences.

Normally, it ends up in a Pop-fly for an out but sometimes you hit it out of the park (Bratt).
 
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evnted

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Robbery. Classic case of a player going lower than he should because of his birth certificate. Had him ranked 76th. So many positives here. He oozes tools. The mobility, the shooting, the physicality, so much makes him look like a pro defender. Not the type of guy you wanna be going up against as an opposing forechecker. He's fiercely competitive, too. And I wouldn't call him low upside either, he has some really nice puck movement at times, and his production rate was honestly pretty darn impressive. The projectability of him at least being a shutdown defender is clear. Now, he definitely has his mistakes, isn't the most polished in his technique, and doesn't possess high level awareness or anything, but the toolkit is so strong and template of his game is so clear that I feel fairly confident projecting him like that. To me, the question is in offensive upside. As I said, the shot is nice. Very heavy, and finds its way through traffic. There's a respectable albeit non-standout playmaking game to him as well. How good truly are these tools? I don't know, Avto kinda ran the table in a weak MHL division. But that's not really a problem because it won't be the deciding factor between him making the NHL or not, it would just affect how far up the lineup he would play. This is great. This has the making of becoming a physically imposing, two-way, top 4 defender. He is everything you don't wanna face in the playoffs. Super raw, no doubt, but quite literally as good as it gets in terms of options at 186. If this guy was our selection at 58, he still would've been a good pick. Rearrange the order of our selections however you see fit to feel better about our draft class lol. Awesome moment for Guadana, too, who I know had been championing him for a while.
 
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Guadana

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MHL U19 defensemen production this year. He is on the level of production of second rounders Duda and Chayka from previous years.

I`m on the way to making video, need some time, may a couple of days.

I was very happy we drafted him. He is a guy with good floor and good ceiling, needs to work on his positional defending, he is big and good skater in the same time. Easily best pick on the Devils draft, especially because of the number of pick.
 
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devilsblood

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Interestingly his Avto team mate, fellow 6'3" d-man Nikita Ishimnikov, who put up half as many points( in 6 less games) went in the 5th round to Colorado.

Ishimnikov did have a big playoffs though. 2-4-6 in 7 gp. 1-1-2 for Karpovich.

Ishimnikov also had a better +/- in the reg season(+15 vs +8) and much better in the playoffs, (+6 vs -9). The respective best and worst on the team in the playoffs.

Sorry this turned a little negative, started off the search loving that reg season point differential.

Edit: To get this back on the positive, Karpovich was much more highly rated by the draft boards, Ishimnikov didn't make most boards, and was pretty low when he did.
 
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My3Sons

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devilsblood said:
Interestingly his Avto team mate, fellow 6'3" d-man Nikita Ishimnikov, who put up half as many points( in 6 less games) went in the 5th round to Colorado.

Ishimnikov did have a big playoffs though. 2-4-6 in 7 gp. 1-1-2 for Karpovich.

Ishimnikov also had a better +/- in the reg season(+15 vs +8) and much better in the playoffs, (+6 vs -9). The respective best and worst on the team in the playoffs.

Sorry this turned a little negative, started off the search loving that reg season point differential.

Edit: To get this back on the positive, Karpovich was much more highly rated by the draft boards, Ishimnikov didn't make most boards, and was pretty low when he did.
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We all know what the Rangers fans are going to call him.
 

StevenToddIves

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Guadana said:
View attachment 723781

MHL U19 defensemen production this year. He is on the level of production of second rounders Duda and Chayka from previous years.

I`m on the way to making video, need some time, may a couple of days.

I was very happy we drafted him. He is a guy with good floor and good ceiling, needs to work on his positional defending, he is big and good skater in the same time. Easily best pick on the Devils draft, especially because of the number of pick.
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Karpovich also offers far greater defensive capability and physical play than Chayka or Duda. To me, he's easily the best Devils pick of the 2023 draft. Not for his draft value or draft position -- he's quite clearly the best player NJ drafted.
 
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Guttersniped

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From various guides and such (all the text from the screen grabs is quoted so people don’t go blind trying to read it).

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Out of 112 ranked prospects
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How they rank:
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Karpovich is a big Belarusian defenseman who was in his first MHL season this year and made a smooth transition, finishing 4th overall among defensemen in league scoring while making his mark as one of the most physical, toughest defensive opponents.

He’s a big athletic defender in the mould of Nikita Okhotyuk; while his offensive numbers are interesting, he’s not a very creative player with the puck. A lot of his offense comes from his hard point shot. He can really shoot it; he has a bomb slapper from the point. However, he was not overly successful translating those into goals. His ability to hit the net with his wrist shot did lead to quite a few goals (like what we saw with Arber Xhekaj in Montreal this season).

The ability to hit the net with a point shot is an underrated quality for defensemen to have in their repertoire. Karpovich’s wrist shots are accurate, but also hard. There’s some good velocity behind those wrist shots.

His transition game is up-and-down; he can skate the puck out of his zone, but doesn’t do it with enough regularity, and his passing skills are just okay. He’s not a big factor in his team's transition game, but once in the offensive zone, he can distribute the puck from the point to his teammates well enough, plus, he’s a threat from the point in terms of his shot quality. To add more value for ranking purposes, we would like to see him be more active in his team’s transition game by moving pucks faster, using his good skating skills to skate it out of his zone more often than demonstrated up to this point.

As mentioned, his offense is intriguing if you look at the stats’ line only, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. What we like the most about Karpovich’s game is his physicality. He hits hard and heavy. He’s got above-average mobility and is a tough defenseman to beat one-on-one. He covers a good amount of ice with his agility and aggressiveness. You need to keep your head up when you’re playing against him; he’s very aggressive in the neutral zone or along the boards, looking to make big hits. He’s very physically strong; he has a pro-hockey-ready frame and a mean streak. He plays an old-school brand of hockey; he makes life tougher for opposing players around his net and along the boards. However, sometimes he is too chaotic; if he can take a step back and let the game to come him instead of chasing it, that should help him in terms of positioning and being in the right place at the right time.

Decision-making has been our biggest question mark with him. When faced with pressure, his puck-management decisions have been problematic. He also seemed to panic when retrieving pucks in his zone. Other issues we noticed in terms of his decision-making include when he puts himself out of position by being too aggressive. In our viewings, too often we would see him get caught flat-footed in the neutral zone or by going for the unnecessary big hits; he needs to learn to pick his spots better.

We love his athleticism, physicality and shooting abilities, but his hockey sense is too average for us to place him too high on our list. However, if he can improve some of his puck-management skills, there’s still potential in him. It’s tough to find defensemen with his pure physical aggressiveness, but some parts of his game will need to be improved for him to make it to the NHL.

“Love his athleticism and aggressiveness, but his lack of hockey IQ is stopping me from pushing him too high,” – HP Scout, Jérôme Bérubé , May 2023
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December 2022
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With strong skating skills for his size, he can escape pressure and retrieve pucks well thanks to his agility and powerful stride but things get tricky with his puck management under pressure. He had a few iffy moments with the puck in his zone and made some bad passes because of the forecheck pressure. He scored one goal from a strong slapshot from the point. Overall, he's a solid athlete and has talent but he'll need to get better with his decision-making under pressure.
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October 2022
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Karpovich played a noticeable 200-foot game while being used on the top PP, he averaged over 20 minutes of ice time. He has the physical toolkit and mental traits that we want to see. He's big, strong, tenacious, maintains a good pace of play and can skate well. Last year there was a lack of inherent structure with how he operated, and that aspect of his game has carried over to this year, especially when evaluating his breakouts. He had difficulty generating clean exits out of his own end at times with mistimed passing plays. That said, he showcased his ability to quarterback the top powerplay unit, where he used slapshot fakes, rapid pivots into angled passes and lateral cutbacks to readjust his lanes so that he could take advantage of his impressive wrist shot. In terms of defending, he was aggressive in boxouts, he was very physical and he showed very good stick instincts while cutting down in wide arcs to mitigate risk. He held well in transitional defense sequences and stopped several plays from materializing in his own zone.


He needs to contain his game at a higher rate and he needs to clean up his breakouts but there's a lot of positive attributes that are exciting as well.
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Did not make Top 136
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GAME REPORTS
David St-Louis: March 7th, 2023 - Sputnik vs. Avto - MHL

Karpovich needs to refine his defensive details. The long sweeping pokechecks and approximate positioning won't work at the next levels. He will get dangled and the puck will move around him. He needs to close his gap faster and play with more pace overall.

I saw flashes of offensive instincts in this one, but he's also a bit behind the curve compared to others in that facet of the game.

David St-Louis: December 7th, 2022 - Avto vs. Sibirskie Snaipery - MHL

Karpovich was the most noticeable defenceman on this Avto blue-line. He forced a couple of passes, but attempted more controlled plays under pressure than his teammates. He skated the puck out of the zone and made plays around the forecheck. He was at the point on the powerplay. His execution wasn't always on point, but his ideas were good, for the most part. I like the aggressiveness.
Good posture in rush defence, too.

Dylan Griffing: November 16th, 2022 - Belarus U20 vs. Russia U20 - Cup of the Future

Karpovich is definitely a long shot prospect because, right now, he is simply not good. His game is built around his physicality and heavy shot, some flashes of puck moving ability, but he doesn't have much finesse. Really poor gap control defending the rush and his defensive positioning is generally just not good. Skating also holds him back in that regard, weak on his edges and is a pretty stiff skater. Lacked control on breakouts, not pre-scanning on retrievals, just dumps out of the zone to prepare to play on the backfoot again. | still think there's something here as a late round flyer, but the value is limited.

Dylan Griffing: October 15th, 2022 - Avto Yekaterinburg vs. Ladya Togliatti - MHL

This game was full of plays that looked good from Karpovich, but not necessarily plays that are going to work against harder competition. The physicality is awesome, maybe over reliant on it when in possession, but he dominates players at this level. Shielding was great, just lacks the skill and pace to take full advantage of the positioning he gains from it. Had one end-to-end rush, but it wasn't a difficult one, since nobody really tried to stop him. Passing is a shot in the dark, not much scanning, just pass and pray. I have hope for him, maybe ends up as a 3rd rounder by the year's end, but he's just so raw right now, need to see more.

Dylan Griffing: September 7th, 2022 - Avto Yekaterinburg vs. Belye Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL

For the first handful of shifts, Karpovich was simply a violent hockey player. Chasing hits hard and completely moving himself out of position, but also using his size with his reach to make good defensive plays. Sidenote: He missed almost all of his hits. Either he decided to calm down or he got a stern talking to from his coach, but something changed and he went from "kinda bad, but physical specimen" to "bad". No gap control at all stopped using his size almost entirely, and was terrible at defending the rush. He needs to find a steady in between of trying to kill every player on the ice and completely taking himself out of the game. Outside of the defense, his passing was really hit or miss. He had two pretty nice breakout passes, one from one-knee that ended as a primary assist. Not much skill, but he moves pretty well for his size. Lacks creativity to really be an advanced puck mover, yet there are some positive signs that shine through. Definitely a major project player.

Dylan Griffing: August 6th, 2022 - Avto Yekaterinburg vs. Reaktor Nizhnekamsk - Friendly

I think the upside with Karpovich is limited, but for what he is, there is a solid hockey player here. Very rangy, uses his size well, and keeps it simple. Doesn't chase physicality, and opts to close down space first and then choose to either use his reach or play body. Inconsistent on-puck skills, there are certainly flashes of puck moving ability, nothing too high end, but he has pretty nice hands. Passing wasn't great and he definitely rushed himself at times; however, he showed some deception to be able to escape the forecheck on a few occasions.
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(Scouting reports under the spoiler)
SCOUTING REPORT


Danil Karpovich played in Belarus' junior league before joining Avto Yekaterinburg this past season and dominating the MHL from the back end.


Although he played in the league's weaker division, his 6-foot-3 size and high production (35 points in 47 games) for a first-year MHL defenceman likely put him on many scout's radars this season.


His size, reach, and good overall mobility for his size will likely make him at least an effective shutdown KHLer, but in time, we could also envision him turning into a power play quarterback. We saw him carry the puck across zones, pass it around defenders, and regularly get his shot through the opposition's formation at the point in the offensive zone.


"His game is built around his physicality and heavy shot, some flashes of puck-moving ability, but he doesn't have much finesse,"


Russian regional scout Dylan Griffing wrote in a November report.


At this stage, although one can project his shot and physical skills to the NHL, his game lacks a lot of refinement, especially on the tactical side. He remains more of a project pick.


To become an effective KHL player and aspire to an NHL role, Karpovich will need to improve many aspects of his game, from the way he approaches his rush defence to his offensive zone movements. He needs to learn to better control his gap and his pokechecks, and he has to use more manipulation tricks and the space given to him in the offensive zone.
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Not Listed in FCHockey Top 300.

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Tall with a very long stick - and reach - Karpovich skates with a wide stance and likes to use his hips and legs to ward off attackers when he's carrying the puck. He can even generate some decent straight forward speed for such a big young man, albeit puck-carrying is not the focus of his game. An old school defender, Karpovich uses his monstrous frame to push opponents around, sometimes knocking them into other stratospheres. Solid at blocking shots and passageways, Karpovich has been improving at taking time and space away from opponents while serving as a brick wall whenever applicable. His shot of choice is a wrister even if there is a powerful slapshot there. Owner of a massive body, the Belarussian Karpovich was an offensive factor for his Russian MHL team, often logging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. This ice time went up in the playoffs while his production tailed off. Although a physical force with room to grow, his frame-mobility-hands package has Karpovich looking like a strong midround selection. - CL
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Out of 240 ranked prospects.
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A strong, solidly built, two-way defenseman. Size and skating are what led our scouts to notice him a couple years back. Fluid feet generate impressive speeds with just a couple strides. His edgework and crossovers are strong. Pivots are incredibly smooth. Has impressive physical stature and is not afraid to use his strength to his advantage. Will destroy an attacker along the wall when given the opportunity. Likes to body attackers and keep his goaltenders sightlines clear. Is intelligent and reads the play well.


Outlet passes are crisp and on tape with stretch passes being a little more hit or miss. Keeps solid gaps and body positioning, and a quick stick to knock pucks off sticks and block lanes. Eats a ton of minutes all over the ice. Offensively he loves to join the rush and even jump in deep into the offensive zone for an opportunity. Lacks high-end creativity. He is a strong communicator and leader. Walks the line looking for open lanes and can hit his target with a strong pass or rifle off a wrist shot. He has a cannon of a slapshot, but his delivery is slow. Could become an all-situation, top-four NHL defender playing heavy minutes and on both special teams if his development continues to progress. - DS
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evnted

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neat little post-draft interview with Karpovich if anyone's interested: Даниил Карпович о драфте: белорусский хоккей это заслужил, мы двигаемся в правильном направлении

pretty funny line in there too (roughly translated):

The most interesting thing is that the New Jersey never contacted me at all. My agent was in Nashville, he texted me: "New Jersey, congratulations!". I didn't believe it myself at first. Then we spoke with representatives of the club. I asked why they chose me, because we had not even contacted. They told me that they see that I am a good hockey player, they do not need to know me personally.​
 
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