Dan Girardi: Part IV

[JohnC]

Ask any Sens fan and they'll tell you Redden's decline coincided with his mom passing and him having serious groin problems

On top of the fact that it's hardly a bash Girardi article to begin with

Girardi being better when all of a sudden being demoted to less heavy duties...what a novel concept no one here ever figured would happen!

 

[eco's bones]

Ask any Sens fan and they'll tell you Redden's decline coincided with his mom passing and him having serious groin problems

On top of the fact that it's hardly a bash Girardi article to begin with

Girardi being better when all of a sudden being demoted to less heavy duties...what a novel concept no one here ever figured would happen!

Really? Any Sens fan? All Sens fans? The rumors were there. They dogged him and they were out of Ottawa. It's not uncommon either for grieving people to go on a bender. Players have money and they have more opportunity. There are plenty of players no doubt doing all kinds of things--even now. Look at Jarret Stoll. Is he a criminal?---not in my opinion but I'd be decriminalizing lots of things---if it were up to me. That said Redden had been on a decline at least two years before Sather signed him. It didn't start with the Rangers.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think there's any problem with saying that Girardi has likely declined. That's not where the argument really stems from. It's where he declined from in the first place.

Girardi is entering that period of a players career where either his skating and reaction time deteriorate past the point where he can be effective or he uses his high intelligence level to adapt to his new physical reality. It will be interesting to see which happens.

That being said, I'm not willing to say definitively that he's in that period until I'm convinced his problems this season aren't simply a result of not being able to skate at all during the off season.

 

[Tawnos]

By the way, Girardi is only 8 months older than Klein, which just goes to the unpredictability of the issue.

 

[Raspewtin]

Girardi is not a player where "high hockey IQ" comes to mind.

 

[Mac n Gs]

He's been much better with Yandle as a partner. Yandle's positioning has allowed him to play a little more east-west instead of trying to always force the play north-south. They're at 50 CF% as a pairing, and 51.5 when you adjust for zone starts and close situations. McD-Klein are at 52 CF% and 55.3 when adjusted for zone starts and close situations.

McD-Klein & Yandle-Girardi have been a very good top-4 for us. We just need to figure out a way to make our third pair work, whether that be Staal-Boyle or Staal-McIlrath

 

[Tawnos]

Girardi is not a player where "high hockey IQ" comes to mind.

Then you don't have a very good handle on the player. His ability to read plays is his biggest strength. It always has been. It's the reason he's been successful at blocking shots and breaking up odd man rushes. Unless you think those things happen just by a player standing there? It's also the reason why you rarely find players between Girardi and the Lundqvist. Positioning is absolutely a result of smarts. He makes excellent decisions in the offensive zone too.

High IQ doesn't only apply to a player when he has the puck on his stick. Even there, Girardi opts for a simple play as an awareness of his limitations in passing the puck. He's not doing it because he's stupid. In fact, it's exactly the opposite. What holds Girardi back from being a solid puck mover is his hands and his skating, not his head. Give Girardi's brain to a better passer and skater and you end up with a true #1 D.

 

[Raspewtin]

He's been much better with Yandle as a partner. Yandle's positioning has allowed him to play a little more east-west instead of trying to always force the play north-south. They're at 50 CF% as a pairing, and 51.5 when you adjust for zone starts and close situations. McD-Klein are at 52 CF% and 55.3 when adjusted for zone starts and close situations.

McD-Klein & Yandle-Girardi have been a very good top-4 for us. We just need to figure out a way to make our third pair work, whether that be Staal-Boyle or Staal-McIlrath

Girardi and Yandle are at 65% OZS% and Yandle's GF/60 drops drastically with Girardi as a partner. Girardi's been better with Yandle but he's still making Yandle worse. And it also outlines the fact that now we're paying 5.5 million for a decently sheltered #5 that doesn't produce any offense. I'm happy he's not a pathetic 44% CF% like usual but we just moved the problem down a pairing and gave it less ice time.

I wouldn't even call them good as a pairing consider their usage, and individual abilities. They're more or less "getting by", where you'd rather have a better option but don't.

Then you don't have a very good handle on the player. His ability to read plays is his biggest strength. It always has been. It's the reason he's been successful at blocking shots and breaking up odd man rushes. Unless you think those things happen just by a player standing there? It's also the reason why you rarely find players between Girardi and the Lundqvist. Positioning is absolutely a result of smarts.

He's successful at blocking shots because that's the only way he can efficiently play in his own zone. I'd HOPE he's good at blocking shots in that case. And either way, he only blocks a lot, that doesn't mean he's good or efficient at it. It's not doing anything to limit scoring chances against him.

Girardi used to be better at reading plays, probably among the better in the league. But the fact of the matter is that as Girardi's skating and body decline (which they already are), his hockey IQ doesn't stick out as something that's going to save him. I'd buy that for a player like McDonagh much quicker than Girardi. He gets by on "hockey IQ" despite poor skating and physical abilities, what happens when they continue to get worse?

High IQ doesn't only apply to a player when he has the puck on his stick. Even there, Girardi opts for a simple play as an awareness of his limitations in passing the puck. He's not doing it because he's stupid. In fact, it's exactly the opposite. What holds Girardi back from being a solid puck mover is his hands and his skating, not his head. Give Girardi's brain to a better passer and skater and you end up with a true #1 D.

So Girardi not being able to make strong plays with the puck isn't just "not lacking of hockey IQ", it's actually that he's very intelligent BECAUSE he knows he can't make plays with the puck and doesn't try to. Passing, as a skill, is something every professional hockey player should have. Where the "IQ" portion comes in is consistently finding open teammates, keeping the puck calm under pressure, and making smart passes to start transition. Girardi doesn't do these things.

I actually agree that if he were a better skater his passing would be better, but just because he manages to not make these limitations face smacking obvious, doesn't mean they still aren't there. I'm not going to give Girardi credit for not being a total doof with the puck, when his alternative is being inefficient with it. I'd rather he just be good with the puck, or not in his playing position.

 

[Machinehead]

Then you don't have a very good handle on the player. His ability to read plays is his biggest strength. It always has been. It's the reason he's been successful at blocking shots and breaking up odd man rushes. Unless you think those things happen just by a player standing there? It's also the reason why you rarely find players between Girardi and the Lundqvist. Positioning is absolutely a result of smarts. He makes excellent decisions in the offensive zone too.

High IQ doesn't only apply to a player when he has the puck on his stick. Even there, Girardi opts for a simple play as an awareness of his limitations in passing the puck. He's not doing it because he's stupid. In fact, it's exactly the opposite. What holds Girardi back from being a solid puck mover is his hands and his skating, not his head. Give Girardi's brain to a better passer and skater and you end up with a true #1 D.

That's something I see almost constantly. Girardi is among the worst in the league at defending his crease.

 

[TheRightWay]

He's been much better with Yandle as a partner. Yandle's positioning has allowed him to play a little more east-west instead of trying to always force the play north-south. They're at 50 CF% as a pairing, and 51.5 when you adjust for zone starts and close situations. McD-Klein are at 52 CF% and 55.3 when adjusted for zone starts and close situations.

McD-Klein & Yandle-Girardi have been a very good top-4 for us. We just need to figure out a way to make our third pair work, whether that be Staal-Boyle or Staal-McIlrath

We need to define what "better" means. If Derek Stepan decided to play in the German league next year he'd probably put up much better point totals than he does in the NHL. Does that mean he's playing better? Obviously not. It just means he's playing against a much more inferior product.

That's a purposely absurd example, but the concept still sticks. Girardi putting up a higher Corsi doesn't necessarily mean he's playing better so much as it means he's now playing against far worse competition in sheltered minutes. His raw numbers, without context, appear better.

On the other hand, what you've willfully ignored is how it's impacted Yandle. This season, Yandle is 54.9% Corsi and NYR average 3.75 Goals/60 minutes at 5v5 when he is on the ice apart from Girardi. With Girardi, Yandle is 50% Corsi and NYR average 2.06 Goals/60 at 5v5 with them both on the ice.

As much as Girardi's numbers have improved, so have Yandle's numbers dropped. Effectively, Dan Girardi has taken a guy who is second among all defensemen in points since 2010 and dragged him down to net-zero possession. Though certainly not the only reason, it definitely is a big reason why Yandle only has three even strength points this season. So now not only are the Rangers paying $5.5M for a defenseman who just got demoted to a lesser role, but now they're also not getting anywhere close to full value out a guy they moved Anthony Duclair and a 1st rounder for.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Girardi is not a player where "high hockey IQ" comes to mind.

I think his hockey IQ is pretty good. I don't think he has many physical gifts. So, to lock down the #1 RD spot on a perennial contender and drawing assignments against the league's best without those inherent advantages means he's doing something right.

 

[Raspewtin]

I think his hockey IQ is pretty good. I don't think he has many physical gifts. So, to lock down the #1 RD spot on a perennial contender and drawing assignments against the league's best without those inherent advantages means he's doing something right.

I didn't mean to insinuate that he's just some imbecile on skates, but he's just not a player I think of when discussing hockey IQ. Girardi has a style that is very likely not going to age well. Defensemen that have had long careers usually relied on skating and high hockey IQ.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I didn't mean to insinuate that he's just some imbecile on skates, but he's just not a player I think of when discussing hockey IQ. Girardi has a style that is very likely not going to age well. Defensemen that have had long careers usually relied on skating and high hockey IQ.

Well we can agree there. The guy has a ton of mileage on him already.

 

[TheRightWay]

Then you don't have a very good handle on the player. His ability to read plays is his biggest strength. It always has been. It's the reason he's been successful at blocking shots and breaking up odd man rushes.

This is a whole lot of subjectivity. I'd argue that a player who reads the game well breaks up plays before the opposition can even attempt a shot, for instance. It's like when a goaltender makes a flashy save and then the commentator raves about it while neglecting the fact that it could have been a routine save if the goaltender executed his angles correctly in the first place. Like a desperation save, blocking a shot is pretty much last resort. If your defensemen consistently have the puck, consistently break up opposing rushes, consistently get pucks out of their own end, and consistently take away time, space, and passing lanes, then they're not going to have to block many shots in the first place.

Unless you think those things happen just by a player standing there? It's also the reason why you rarely find players between Girardi and the Lundqvist.

And you've just uncovered why the "eye test" is sketchy at best. Here's a chart showing where on the ice teams tend to take shots from with Girardi on the ice at 5v5 since the 13-14 season.

The negative number (and red) means that Girardi is below average in suppressing shots right in front of Lundqvist. I don't know what conclusion can be drawn from this other than that a lot of players are finding their way between Girardi and Lundqvist. To compare, here is Nick Hjalmarsson's chart.

Pretty big difference there.

 

[TheRightWay]

I think his hockey IQ is pretty good. I don't think he has many physical gifts. So, to lock down the #1 RD spot on a perennial contender and drawing assignments against the league's best without those inherent advantages means he's doing something right.

This always has been and will continue to be a terrible argument because what it effectively boils down to is "Girardi must be good because Glen Sather thinks he's good." It's a blatant fallacy.

I don't get why NYR doing well means Girardi has to be doing well. This is the exact logic that Toronto and Florida subscribed to when they overpaid for Dave Bolland. It's the exact logic the Rangers subscribed to when they overpaid for Wade Redden. Reality is that if Dan Girardi was on a mediocre team right now with just a solid goaltender and not a HOF one then he'd be grouped right in with Andrew MacDonald.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He's played first pairing minutes exclusively for years. Him being demoted with any regularity is an interesting development.

And the writer isn't stupid, it's their job to write. They can't hold off on doing their job because the season is young.

No, his minutes have not declined. I've went through that with another poster who thought the same as you. His minutes are what they always are.

What has declined is the perception of his role, not his actual role. He just hadn't been playing with McDonagh, so all the Girardi haters jumped onto this and tried to use it as their evidence, without actually researching if he's playing less minutes. It could very well have been that AV didn't like the way McDonagh and Girardi were playing for a few games, so its early in the season, things don't really matter, get those two back to playing well individually before they go back to playing together as a pair. It seems like he's put them back together for the game tonight, and both players have been better the last few games.

The writer can write early in the season, but if he's going to try to use less than 10 games of play as evidence for a player declining, thats poor journalism, and it seems like the poor journalism is being exposed by Girardi's play in recent games.

 

[Machinehead]

It's not that he's playing less minutes. His usage has changed. He's had over 65% offensive zone starts with Yandle.

For a player that takes almost exclusively tough minutes, that's absolutely a decline in role.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It's not that he's playing less minutes. His usage has changed. He's had over 65% offensive zone starts with Yandle.

For a player that takes almost exclusively tough minutes, that's absolutely a decline in role.

Not everyone can get tough zone starts. AV wanted to change the defensive pairs, and that means certain players will get different zone starts. If you are playing with Yandle, you are likely to get easy zone starts, and maybe thats exactly what AV wanted of him when he was struggling, so he could worry less about his poor play while being tasked with brutal assignments every game. That seems like its exactly what happened. A few games later, he's back with McDonagh for the big game against Washington and he's been playing well recently.

 

[Tawnos]

This is a whole lot of subjectivity. I'd argue that a player who reads the game well breaks up plays before the opposition can even attempt a shot, for instance. It's like when a goaltender makes a flashy save and then the commentator raves about it while neglecting the fact that it could have been a routine save if the goaltender executed his angles correctly in the first place. Like a desperation save, blocking a shot is pretty much last resort. If your defensemen consistently have the puck, consistently break up opposing rushes, consistently get pucks out of their own end, and consistently take away time, space, and passing lanes, then they're not going to have to block many shots in the first place.



And you've just uncovered why the "eye test" is sketchy at best. Here's a chart showing where on the ice teams tend to take shots from with Girardi on the ice at 5v5 since the 13-14 season.

The negative number (and red) means that Girardi is below average in suppressing shots right in front of Lundqvist. I don't know what conclusion can be drawn from this other than that a lot of players are finding their way between Girardi and Lundqvist. To compare, here is Nick Hjalmarsson's chart.

Pretty big difference there.

Thanks for illustrating a fallacy in the understanding stats. Giving up shot attempts in the crease is NOT the same as players being behind you. In fact, it lines up with the observation pretty nicely. Girardi might concede you the attempt at a shot, but it's not going to be clean. It's not going to be easy. And you still have to deal with Hank.

"This is a whole lot of subjectivity." Again, it's all subjectivity. You say that as a criticism, but it really isn't.

Girardi is one of the smartest defensemen the Rangers have employed in my 20+ years of following the team every game.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

It's not that he's playing less minutes. His usage has changed. He's had over 65% offensive zone starts with Yandle.

For a player that takes almost exclusively tough minutes, that's absolutely a decline in role.

Aren't the effects of zone starts negligible? The same argument used against G when he was being brutalized in usage.

Hockey IQ is a very cliche term. I agree when you think of Dan Girardi you don't think of that term. His success was more 'selling out' as opposed to 'hockey sense'. His ability to block shots were the product of playing a safe, positionally sound game (sometimes too safe, e.g conceding the blue line too easily at times etc.) and subsequently selling out where others wouldnt.

 

[Tawnos]

I didn't mean to insinuate that he's just some imbecile on skates, but he's just not a player I think of when discussing hockey IQ. Girardi has a style that is very likely not going to age well. Defensemen that have had long careers usually relied on skating and high hockey IQ.

Do you have anything to bear that thought out? My guess is no. Good skating defensemen can age well. Bad skating defensemen can age well. The only thing D who last well into their 30s have in common is high intelligence.

 

[Machinehead]

Aren't the effects of zone starts negligible? The same argument used against G when he was being brutalized in usage.

I believe they are.

Alain Vigneault doesn't. He's well-known as being the biggest deployment buff in the league. We're talking specifically about Girardi's role in the eyes of AV.

If AV -a known deployments guy- is giving a defensive defenseman almost exclusively an offensive role, I think that speaks to the level of trust he's had in that player to defend this season.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If AV -a known deployments guy- is giving a defensive defenseman almost exclusively an offensive role, I think that speaks to the level of trust he's had in that player to defend this season.

Defend this season or defend for a few games this season?

 

[NYR Viper]

I believe they are.

Alain Vigneault doesn't. He's well-known as being the biggest deployment buff in the league. We're talking specifically about Girardi's role in the eyes of AV.

If AV -a known deployments guy- is giving a defensive defenseman almost exclusively an offensive role, I think that speaks to the level of trust he's had in that player to defend this season.

I would agree with this. The fact that Girardi and Boyle both have been given offensive starts tells me he is not happy with either of their defensive games.

 

[Machinehead]

Defend this season or defend for a few games this season?

So far this season, so 11 games.

Yes, it's a tiny sample. Nobody said otherwise.