Prospect Info: Dallas Stars 2020 Draft Scouting Reports

[BigG44]

 

[Kcb12345]

Brayden Point is the guy who came to mind for me when I learned more about him. Seems very similar in terms of playstyle

 

[BigG44]

 

[BigG44]

I didn't realize Seguin and Heiskanen were with the same agency.

 

[BigG44]

 

[BigG44]

McDonnell said. “He’s far from a finished product right now. He’s a little bit on the slight side. He’s going to have to bulk up, just like most kids at that age. He’s far from being physically mature right now. Since the end of last season, I think he’s already an inch and a half taller and 10 pounds heavier.”

New Mav in Dallas: Stars select Mavrik Bourque in NHL draft, a far from finished product with a high hockey IQ

 

[LT]

I don't want to get too hyped early but it really seems like we could have a guy who people look back on thinking "how the hell did he go 30th?".

 

[LT]

Can't find the quote but BigG said the drafting changed from 2017 onward (coinciding with Scott White's performance) and I have to agree.

The biggest thing to me is there aren't as many "safe" picks. We've had 4 picks in the 25-30 range since Nill took over.

2013, 29th Overall - Jason Dickinson
2016, 26th Overall - Riley Tufte
2017, 26th Overall - Jake Oettinger
2020, 30th Overall - Mavrik Bourque

It seems like there's much more of a balance of high-risk-high-reward players and lower-end players who are more likely to be depth players. These four picks are a small microcosm of that.

Doesn't seem like there's a preference at any given point, but it seems to kind of relate to who's already been taken. 2018, for instance. Dellandrea, Back, and Douglas are safer picks while Eriksson, Mascherin, and Damiani are much higher risk with a lot more potential.

It's a really small sample, only from 2017 onward, but it looks like a positive trend toward a more productive drafting method.

We are reaping the benefits of Nill's old philosophy right now where we have a number of prospects coming up to fill in as cheap depth for older, more expensive players. But the writing is on the wall for Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Pavelski. At least half and probably 2/3 of our top 6 is trending downward and possibly rapidly. Guys like Robertson and Tufte simply aren't going to cut it in replacing their production.

Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but it makes sense to me.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

I don't really see how this is a Scott White pick tho, isn't he primarily an NCAA gem finder? The reason he made the pick is because Nill is work from home lock down (because of his wife) and only White/Janko were in the Dallas war room.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Depends on how you define, "safe", I guess. I think all of those were drafted pretty well in their aggregate ranking range, even Tufte. Goalies are usually graded lower due to uncertainty. JD was always a fairly safe "2 way player" with the ability to scale up and down, which he has done. If anything has changed, Nill has gone away from size (Tufte in 2016, perhaps drafted because the Stars were smaller and more skilled that year) to character and hockey IQ, with a touch of speed. When he started, I think he drafted a bit for speed and puck or shooting skills, i.e. Nuke and Honka, in the first round (lower half, JD was near the end)

To me, the unsafe pick would have been the CBJ (and somehow typical Nill reach) of Chinakov, who was unranked, so even a bigger reach than Guri, LOL. Maybe today, they will draft Suchov, if only to give the announcers giggle fits.

The biggest thing to me is there aren't as many "safe" picks. We've had 4 picks in the 25-30 range since Nill took over.

2013, 29th Overall - Jason Dickinson
2016, 26th Overall - Riley Tufte
2017, 26th Overall - Jake Oettinger
2020, 30th Overall - Mavrik Bourque

 

[BigG44]

I don't want to get too hyped early but it really seems like we could have a guy who people look back on thinking "how the hell did he go 30th?".

I'm' pretty sure I've seen 2 scouting reports that said that as well. It was pre-draft so they said he would be a guy people wonder why he went so late.

 

[BigG44]

Can't find the quote but BigG said the drafting changed from 2017 onward (coinciding with Scott White's performance) and I have to agree.

The biggest thing to me is there aren't as many "safe" picks. We've had 4 picks in the 25-30 range since Nill took over.

2013, 29th Overall - Jason Dickinson
2016, 26th Overall - Riley Tufte
2017, 26th Overall - Jake Oettinger
2020, 30th Overall - Mavrik Bourque

It seems like there's much more of a balance of high-risk-high-reward players and lower-end players who are more likely to be depth players. These four picks are a small microcosm of that.

Doesn't seem like there's a preference at any given point, but it seems to kind of relate to who's already been taken. 2018, for instance. Dellandrea, Back, and Douglas are safer picks while Eriksson, Mascherin, and Damiani are much higher risk with a lot more potential.

It's a really small sample, only from 2017 onward, but it looks like a positive trend toward a more productive drafting method.

We are reaping the benefits of Nill's old philosophy right now where we have a number of prospects coming up to fill in as cheap depth for older, more expensive players. But the writing is on the wall for Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Pavelski. At least half and probably 2/3 of our top 6 is trending downward and possibly rapidly. Guys like Robertson and Tufte simply aren't going to cut it in replacing their production.

Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but it makes sense to me.

That wasn't me. I know what you're talking about that. Maybe it was serp.

 

[BigG44]

I don't really see how this is a Scott White pick tho, isn't he primarily an NCAA gem finder? The reason he made the pick is because Nill is work from home lock down (because of his wife) and only White/Janko were in the Dallas war room.

He's known as the NCAA guy only because those are the most common UDFA that are getting signed by AHL teams and he has a very strong connection in Michigan. You will occasionally see someone actually name the scout that is attending a game, and I don't think it's a surprise now that we know Jackson's contract was not renewed, but he seems to be filling a similar role as Jackson. In the past couple years, I've seen his name pop up at pro games leading up to the TDL and a handful of amateur games as well in NA. Jackson use to travel around and attend games with regional scouts prior to that. It seemed to be only part time scouting duty for Jackson, and my guess is that's what White does.

I agree that the only reason he made the pick was for your reasoning.

 

[BigG44]

I think the crazier thing about Chinakov that I don't see mentioned often is he wasn't even first year draft eligible. He went undrafted the first time he was eligible. Not only do you reach in the first round, you reach on a guy that everyone already passed on once.

CBJ are in a similar position as Dallas with picks. Even if you only get a 3rd ... how do you not trade back on a guy like that? At least with Gurianov, he was first year eligible, and I think he was a close to consensus Top 40 pick maybe higher. They're really not comparable.

 

[serp]

Chinakhov started his KHL season pretty strong but thats really a strange pick . Jarmo said they had him top 10 right ? Seems strange that he didn't try to trade down . I can' t imagine he was that high on anyone elses draft list.

 

[BigG44]

I seem to have been a bit unfair to Gurianov ... he was in the early 20's on most of the key lists including Bob McKenzie. Bob had him at 21, and ISS had him at 24. I thought he was rated a bit lower than that.

 

[serp]

I seem to have been a bit unfair to Gurianov ... he was in the early 20's on most of the key lists including Bob McKenzie. Bob had him at 21, and ISS had him at 24. I thought he was rated a bit lower than that.

He was a consensus first rounder mostly in the 20's ranked. A couple had him higher right about where he was picked. Pretty sure there was also some rumblings before the draft that he was the guy the Stars really liked.

 

[BigG44]

I know the 2nd day goes faster, but I have an early afternoon appointment. My guess is I'm going to miss the Stars picks. I won't be around to update the scouting stuff on them until early this evening. Just post stuff in here, and I'll add it.

I'm still trying to figure out a work around for some of the media.

 

[M88K]

Chinakhov started his KHL season pretty strong but thats really a strange pick . Jarmo said they had him top 10 right ? Seems strange that he didn't try to trade down . I can' t imagine he was that high on anyone elses draft list.

100% agree.
I do wonder if this is the first time a player was completely passed up during 1st year of draft eligibility then became a 1st round pick . I can't think of a time that is happened at least modern era

 

[Satan]

100% agree.
I do wonder if this is the first time a player was completely passed up during 1st year of draft eligibility then became a 1st round pick . I can't think of a time that is happened at least modern era

First player to comes to mind is Tanner Pearson who was eligible for 2 years before he was taken as a 1st round pick in 2012

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Viktor Tikhonov, Trever Lewis and David Perron were others too

 

[M88K]

Well turns out I forgot a bunch of players

 

[BigG44]

Well turns out I forgot a bunch of players

If it makes you feel better, I only remembered Pearson. There was a great deal of press around the time with speculation about him going in the first round.

 

[M88K]

If it makes you feel better, I only remembered Pearson. There was a great deal of press around the time with speculation about him going in the first round.

I'm trying to think back and remember if any of those guys came way out of left field like chinahkov and honestly can't remember

 

[BigG44]

I'm trying to think back and remember if any of those guys came way out of left field like chinahkov and honestly can't remember

Pearson absolutely did not.

My guess is there's never been one as shocking as Chinahkov. Some people like Wheeler didn't even have him Top 100. The reaction on Sportsnet says it all IMO. Pronman had him at 118.

It was a pretty stunning pick.

I think most people at least had Shakir Mukhamadullin as a 2nd round pick. It's crazy they went back to back .