Prospect Info: Cut bait

[Ezekial]

FTFY.

He avoids any contact, and his decision making process is too slow for the NHL. I think we're noticing the same thing. I picked up on it right away while everyone else thought he was the next Rafalski.


Note:
When I said cut bait, I mean let him go through waivers when his exemption runs out (21-22 season). If there's no improvement during that season, I wouldn't bother re-signing him.

He's 3rd pair D at best, dime a dozen. You can pick up guys like Merrill or Stecher in FA.

That still doesn't give a meaningful reason as to why we should just waive him, other than to prove how right you've always been.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would let any of them not named Seider or Raymond go for the right trade. Heck I would trade those guys if the return was correct. We don't have an untouchable player, we have a few that are pretty hard to get without a legitimate offer, but I would be willing to listen on all of our players and prospects. I think Yzerman would too.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

ennis Cholowski doesn't know how to play defense. As a defenseman, that is not good.

Yeah, but a defensemen with limited mobility and puck skills who can't move the puck isn't very good either in today's game.

 

[The Zermanator]

I would let any of them not named Seider or Raymond go for the right trade. Heck I would trade those guys if the return was correct. We don't have an untouchable player, we have a few that are pretty hard to get without a legitimate offer, but I would be willing to listen on all of our players and prospects. I think Yzerman would too.

Pretty much. Would have a real hard time parting with Larkin or Seider particularly. But if say Eichel becomes a possibility there's no one in the organization more valuable than him. Balancing the pieces right to make both sides pull the trigger is another matter, but you'd need to add to any player on this team to get a deal done.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I would let any of them not named Seider or Raymond go for the right trade. Heck I would trade those guys if the return was correct. We don't have an untouchable player, we have a few that are pretty hard to get without a legitimate offer, but I would be willing to listen on all of our players and prospects. I think Yzerman would too.

That is obviously the correct answer, but cutting bait suggests something closer to letting them go for the sake of letting them go, not because of some strategic purpose.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

That is obviously the correct answer, but cutting bait suggests something closer to letting them go for the sake of letting them go, not because of some strategic purpose.

In the fresh start category I think both Cholowski and Svechnikov could use a fresh start. I don't see why that is good value to us, we might as well hold onto them for the last try before waiver eligibility Cholo has one more year and this year is it for Svech in terms of sink or swim right now. We aren't going to get a ton of value back, so I am okay with sticking with both guys. But I think they could probably use a different scenery at this point.

I wouldn't have qualified Hirose at all, so that is a guy I would have outright cut bait with.

Just I am willing to listen on pretty much all of our guys, yeah I don't see a scenario where Larkin, Seider or Raymond are on the move.

Svech is pretty popular with the boys, maybe they do give him a Fabbri esk here you go trade. I just don't see how we aren't his best option to make a NHL team right now, we still are really bad. If you cannot make it here, you can want a change of scenery but I don't see another team coming. Though there are 20 guys that are about to be NHL players that didn't used to be by the numbers starting next year. Some guys will benefit from that around the league perhaps we have one of them.

 

[Gniwder]

That still doesn't give a meaningful reason as to why we should just waive him, other than to prove how right you've always been.

He's not gonna learn anything in the NHL, the game is too fast for him. He needs time in the AHL, and also needs to develop physicality. So he's gonna have to go through waivers. Sitting on the bench in Detroit won't help him.

He'll clear anyways, and he'll be in Europe in 3 years. Bigger ice, less contact. He'll do OK over there.

 

[Oddbob]

Funny how anytime a prospect or young player "doesn't make it," it's someone's "fault." Who should we blame for Alexander Daigle being a dud?

Look, some kids just can't hack it. They don't have what it takes. Fans overlook the "between the ears" factor, but you have to have the right mind to be successful at the pinnacle of any profession, hockey included. You can have the skill. You can even have the work ethic. But the mental toughness, sometimes seen in the form of compete, sometimes seen in the form of not dwelling on your mistakes, sometimes seen in the form of problem solving.... is real. If Cholo doesn't make it, who's fault is it? Maybe a coach. Maybe Cholo's. Or maybe he just never had what it takes to begin with. The answer is rarely obvious, but none of us are even remotely close enough to the process to know in most cases. To think otherwise is just hubris.

Based on what is known of Cholowski's situation, I suspect he may just not have "it." He still has a chance to succeed and I certainly hope he does, but he couldn't beat out Madison Bowey, and Madison Bowey is one of the worst [formerly] regular defenseman I've ever seen in the NHL.

He was better than Bowey. Just cause Bowey got to stay up over him means nothing, as coaches always have the guys they pick. A different coach likely sends Bowey down as he is far more a train wreck in his own end than Cholowski is.

 

[Run the Jewels]

real talk: any forward or defenseman who cannot make this roster by his +3 year in North America should for sure be in the cut bait bin. Tomas Tatar was an exception but he was trying to break into the best team in the league as a prospect. We are currently...not good.

 

[Oddbob]

I'll say it again, man alive do you guys give up in a damn hurry on young players. Parts of 2 seasons playing the hardest position in the sport to learn at the pro level with terrible team and linemates to learn from, and he is ready for the ECHL for life. If you give up that quick, well then get ready for a lot of disappointment, because the reality is, 80% of our new shiny toys aren't even going to play in the NHL, let alone make an impact. Let Cholowski learn with a real defensive minded partner and my guess is he will be fine. Sending him out there with a Biega, Daley or Bowey as were his usual partners and very few will survive that introduction to the league.

Not saying Cholo will make it, and I am down on him as well, but plenty of guys took 3-5++ years to make it. Guys like Couturier and many others spent his first 4 seasons before he was anything more than a 3rd line player. I am just saying we need to calm it down a bit.

 

[kliq]

real talk: any forward or defenseman who cannot make this roster by his +3 year in North America should for sure be in the cut bait bin. Tomas Tatar was an exception but he was trying to break into the best team in the league as a prospect. We are currently...not good.

This post would have much more truth to it if you were talking forwards.

D and Goaltenders just take longer to develop. It’s been proven time after time after time.

 

[Shaman464]

hah, thanks for that remark.. I've watched every Wings game for the past 10 years+, could it be that we just see the game differently?

I know you think Cholo is chopped liver, we all know it.. but I believe he's someone who has the potential to be a really good player. As for stats, I do look at them.. not really into advanced stats, but in Cholowski's case they seem to tell the story of a decent enough player who has had pretty terrible 'luck' so far in his career.

Since you pointed to +/-, let's also look at E+/- (expected +/-, based on shot location for/ against at even strength)

	GP		E +/-		+/-
Cholo	88		-1.9		-46
Nemeth	64		-5.5		-10
Hronek	111		-18.7		-48
Bowey	70		-20.3		-20
Daley	164		-33.2		-20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There are other numbers that indicate more of the same, but I don't think there's much point in delving further into this.. Cholowski was always a project.. at the draft, Holland said they were going to "tuck him away in college for 3-4 years". If they had stuck to that, Cholowski would have had his rookie year in the NHL this coming season.. I think he's still a very good prospect, that the criticism on this forum has been overblown, and that it would be foolish to rush to write him off at this point... let's hope he can have a good 2021.

If you need to delve into advance stats to contradict the eye test you're reaching. Hockey advance states are still nascent and are not to be taken as nearly predictive or indicative as advance stats in baseball. The fact that he's -46 playing extremely sheltered minutes, and his advance stats say that is a huge departure from prediction based on what a replacement level player would have shows that the problem is him.

 

[Gniwder]

He was better than Bowey. Just cause Bowey got to stay up over him means nothing, as coaches always have the guys they pick. A different coach likely sends Bowey down as he is far more a train wreck in his own end than Cholowski is.

Bowey got sent down as well.

... and he loses one on one matchups, so his partner isn't an excuse. Maybe in terms of positioning, because nobody knows where Bowey is going, not even Bowey, lol. I just don't think Cholo has the mentality necessary to play in the NHL. I don't think time is going to change that. He's basically a poor man's Kindl. If he wasn't a 1st round pick, we wouldn't even be discussing him or Kindl.

 

[ricky0034]

This post would have much more truth to it if you were talking forwards.

D and Goaltenders just take longer to develop. It’s been proven time after time after time.

even forwards it's kinda iffy for anything but high draft picks

Mantha and Bertuzzi only saw short stints in their D+3s for example

 

[kliq]

even forwards it's kinda iffy for anything but high draft picks

Mantha and Bertuzzi only saw short stints in their D+3s for example

Fair enough, but especially D and goalies, they take a long time to develop.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Cholowski.

What a lousy pick he was.

 

[MBH]

Cutting bait with prospects?? Not any 1/2 decent reason to do it. Not at this point.

But if you put a gun to m head
Fulcher.
Hicketts..
Draper.
Bradley.
Setkov.
Holway.

People choosing Svechnikov after 20 NHL games... yikes.
Cholo too.
I really can't understand it.

Defensemen sometimes take until they're 23-24, 25 to mature and figure it out.
We just signed Jon Merrill... a 28 year old who still hasn't completely stuck. Yet we signed him.
We just signed Troy Stecher. He didn't win a job until he was 22 - same age as Cholowski.
Dekeyser was basically 23 when he made the NHL.
Nemeth was 25 before he played more than 40 NHL games in a season.

It's quite possible Cholowski fizzles out. Svech too.
But there's no good reason not to give them every opportunity to make it.

We're a better organization of Cholowski becomes an NHL defenseman and Svech becomes a middle six winger.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I would let any of them not named Seider or Raymond go for the right trade. Heck I would trade those guys if the return was correct. We don't have an untouchable player, we have a few that are pretty hard to get without a legitimate offer, but I would be willing to listen on all of our players and prospects. I think Yzerman would too.

Realistically, there isn't a trade for Seider or Raymond that seems all that plausible. I would probably add Zadina's name into the mix there as well.

Competitive teams are going to be seeking out players more likely to be immediate impact players, someone like Mantha or Hronek would be more of that speed. We haven't advanced far enough into this rebuild to go after the cast offs of a team breaking apart their elder statesmen and beginning their own rebuild to where they would want to target the 2018 draft year and later prospects.

You would truly need a higher end player around the 23 and under age range, like a Werenski, to have some contract fallout and find their way to the trading block.

I suppose your position of willingness aligns with mine, but cross reference that willingness with realistic deals and you might end up with 0 results on the query.

 

[muchbetterthanlada]

If you need to delve into advance stats to contradict the eye test you're reaching. Hockey advance states are still nascent and are not to be taken as nearly predictive or indicative as advance stats in baseball. The fact that he's -46 playing extremely sheltered minutes, and his advance stats say that is a huge departure from prediction based on what a replacement level player would have shows that the problem is him.

My eye test says Cholo is doing ok as a young defeneseman on an awful team.
I brought in E+/- because you're promoting raw +/- (& ZS%) as evidence of what a bad player he is...
I'm certainly not an expert on advanced stats, but your interpretation seems very creative.

My point was simply that +/- is an awful tool for evaluating a guy like Cholowski (and to some extent Hronek, though fortunately his -48 doesn't get as much attention)

Cholo is -9 on the PP, and doesn't PK [-9]. Hronek is -10 on the PP, and +4 on the PK [-6]. Wings have allowed 33 EN goals against in he past two years, most of them with one of these guys on the ice. (yes, you can get a + with an EN as well, unless i'ts combined with a PP, which they often are) Cholo also never gets a + from playing against an EN, while Hronek will pick up a few.... Add a stat like his bad PDO (team S% for/ against) or other, and I think it's safe to say that his -46 makes him look a lot worse than he has been, and that it's not a fair representation of his overall play.

 

[Hen Kolland]

People choosing Svechnikov after 20 NHL games... yikes.
Cholo too.
I really can't understand it.

Just need to play devil's advocate for a quick second. And this isn't to say I disagree with you on Svechnikov, because I would like to see him get a legitimate shot (although that might not happen in Detroit).

You listed two players who were drafted like 45 days ago, and you're going to start to complain about the sample size of a player drafted 5 years ago, has a history of significant injuries, which in part has played a role in his inability to lock down even a semi-regular bottom 6 role despite a first round pedigree?

This would be an example of hypocrisy.

 

[Run the Jewels]

This post would have much more truth to it if you were talking forwards.

D and Goaltenders just take longer to develop. It’s been proven time after time after time.

I purposely left out goaltenders. I stand by my statement with skaters. How often does a first round pick not make the NHL roster full time after 3 years of playing in NA? It has to be statistically insignificant.

 

[19 for president]

Larkin and Seider are my only semi untouchables, but even if they are available for a position upgrade. Its just unlikely that those kind of deals come along.

Hirose is the only real cut bait kind of guy. He has no spot on the Wings. Svech has looked like an NHLer when healthy, he just hasn't been healthy. He doesn't need a new start, he just needs to be healthy for more than a few months. I'm still hoping he has a Kronner type rebound, but his injuries seem more severe than Kronners were.

Cholo is a mess and might be a guy that could use a change of venue but he was always going to be a long term project. Maybe the extra time off will help him bulk up more and get his head on straight. If he doesn't improve between now and his waiver exemption you dump him them. He was bad enough that he probably has very little trade value so there is no point in dealing him.

 

[kliq]

I purposely left out goaltenders. I stand by my statement with skaters. How often does a first round pick not make the NHL roster full time after 3 years of playing in NA? It has to be statistically insignificant.

And I stand by my statement that you’re wrong. It takes a longer time to develop D then it does to develop forwards.

Why is the round he is drafted in relevant if we are talking player development? The conversation isn’t “was Chowolski drafted too early” he probably was as first round picks are more likely to enter the NHL quicker....later round picks do this all the time.

 

[Shaman464]

And I stand by my statement that you’re wrong. It takes a longer time to develop D then it does to develop forwards.

Why is the round he is drafted in relevant if we are talking player development? The conversation isn’t “was Chowolski drafted too early” he probably was as first round picks are more likely to enter the NHL quicker....later round picks do this all the time.

He's almost 23. Not like he's 20. He should be showing positive development, but he's been pretty stagnant the last two seasons.

 

[kliq]

He's almost 23. Not like he's 20. He should be showing positive development, but he's been pretty stagnant the last two seasons.

I’m very aware of your feelings about him.