Confirmed with Link: Craig Smith 5 years, 4.25M AAV

[triggrman]

I had no agenda, I was just pulling the numbers for guys around the same salary range. Ice time was brought up so I posted that as well.

The fact is, most guys that can manage to stay in that 15-25 goals 35-45 point range are going to make around 4M. Wilson and Smith are not over or underpaid, they're paid about average for their production...

 

[wadesworld]

Two guys paid 4 mil should not be struggling to put up 30 points in a NHL season. It is inexcusable. It is inexcusable that Poile agreed to the contracts as well. What to do I have no idea but this is a bigger problem than everyone here makes out for this team.

Is it inexcusable for Abdelkader, Hemsky, Backes, Brower, Gaborik to be struggling the same or more?

 

[Viqsi]

It is all about comparing our guys to others at similar salary.

By this measure, the Preds have no room to complain whatsoever because Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are both light years beyond most of the rest of the league.

Two guys paid 4 mil should not be struggling to put up 30 points in a NHL season. It is inexcusable. It is inexcusable that Poile agreed to the contracts as well. What to do I have no idea but this is a bigger problem than everyone here makes out for this team.

People don't consider it a big problem because nearly every team in the NHL faces the same or even worse problems. The lack of such things is a highly prized asset. Hell, you don't even have it worse because there's two of 'em - look at the Rangers with Marc Staal and Dan Girardi.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - some of you people here have no idea what true NHL franchise suffering and hardship is like.

* * *​

Is it inexcusable for Abdelkader, Hemsky, Backes, Brower, Gaborik to be struggling the same or more?

You forgot Brown, Franzen, and Clarkson. And probably others.

 

[101st_fan]

I had no agenda, I was just pulling the numbers for guys around the same salary range. Ice time was brought up so I posted that as well.

The fact is, most guys that can manage to stay in that 15-25 goals 35-45 point range are going to make around 4M. Wilson and Smith are not over or underpaid, they're paid about average for their production...

Since when has reality mattered when bashing a player?

 

[NSH615]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - some of you people here have no idea what true NHL franchise suffering and hardship is like.

In a way we have experienced it due to the lack of a 2 or 3 year true dry spell. Yes we had a couple of seasons a few years ago where we were terrible, but that was mostly due to injuries and not truly being bad. For the most part, this team has been too good for it's own good, but not good enough to truly compete. And this is a never ending cycle of false hope that will never end. I would take 3 terrible years 100 times out of a 100 if it meant we actually could get what we needed. The problem is without a slew of injuries, this team will always be too good for that as long as Poile is the GM.

 

[drwpreds]

In a way we have experienced it due to the lack of a 2 or 3 year true dry spell. Yes we had a couple of seasons a few years ago where we were terrible, but that was mostly due to injuries and not truly being bad. For the most part, this team has been too good for it's own good, but not good enough to truly compete. And this is a never ending cycle of false hope that will never end. I would take 3 terrible years 100 times out of a 100 if it meant we actually could get what we needed. The problem is without a slew of injuries, this team will always be too good for that as long as Poile is the GM.

I agree 100% that many on here have no idea what real suffering is.

I've said this before, but in the big picture the Predators are still basically in their infancy as a sports franchise.

And the problem with those 3 terrible years is that if you have those 3 years of suffering, it doesn't guarantee you anything. You may go through years of misery and then find out that you still aren't any closer to a championship. I would take 5 years of having the worst team in hockey if it meant a Cup in year 6, but again, no guarantees. What if you have those 5 years and then still get knocked out in the first round in year 6? There is something to be said for having a good, competitive team year in and year out.

Try pulling for a team with 1 playoff appearance and 0 playoff wins in 11 years- now THAT is suffering.

 

[Viqsi]

In a way we have experienced it due to the lack of a 2 or 3 year true dry spell. Yes we had a couple of seasons a few years ago where we were terrible, but that was mostly due to injuries and not truly being bad. For the most part, this team has been too good for it's own good, but not good enough to truly compete. And this is a never ending cycle of false hope that will never end. I would take 3 terrible years 100 times out of a 100 if it meant we actually could get what we needed. The problem is without a slew of injuries, this team will always be too good for that as long as Poile is the GM.

I hear this particular excuse all the time - "wahhhh we're too good to draft the stars". Recall that the Jackets have been there, several times, and we still have less playoff game wins than the Preds have playoff appearances. And I challenge you to find another franchise that has found more star defensemen in the draft in the past 18 years.

There is finally a #1C in Nashville for arguably the first time ever, but because that alone doesn't magically transform all problems into solutions, we've got folks kvetching about the everyday stuff that every team goes through and treating it as though it's somehow exceptional. News flash, folks: it's not exceptional. It happens to everybody. And griping about it makes y'all only look like spoiled children.

 

[NSH615]

I agree 100% that many on here have no idea what real suffering is.

I've said this before, but in the big picture the Predators are still basically in their infancy as a sports franchise.

And the problem with those 3 terrible years is that if you have those 3 years of suffering, it doesn't guarantee you anything. You may go through years of misery and then find out that you still aren't any closer to a championship. I would take 5 years of having the worst team in hockey if it meant a Cup in year 6, but again, no guarantees. What if you have those 5 years and then still get knocked out in the first round in year 6? There is something to be said for having a good, competitive team year in and year out.

Try pulling for a team with 1 playoff appearance and 0 playoff wins in 11 years- now THAT is suffering.

I guess my point was I'd rather know going in that we have no chance, than have the continued false hope. The false hope drives me insane. At this point, I know this team is probably 5-10 years from a conference/cup finals appearance. Really it is however long Poile is here plus 5+ years to fully clean house before we have a real shot.

 

[Viqsi]

I guess my point was I'd rather know going in that we have no chance, than have the continued false hope.

That doesn't actually happen. Because one can always find reasons for hope for something. Otherwise, you just don't watch the team.

 

[NSH615]

That doesn't actually happen. Because one can always find reasons for hope for something. Otherwise, you just don't watch the team.

What are you hoping for with Columbus? Have you stopped watching? They are not making the playoffs this year.

 

[drwpreds]

I guess my point was I'd rather know going in that we have no chance, than have the continued false hope. The false hope drives me insane. At this point, I know this team is probably 5-10 years from a conference/cup finals appearance. Really it is however long Poile is here plus 5+ years to fully clean house before we have a real shot.

Not trying to be argumentative here and I am assuming you were being serious but 5-10 years? I would love to know how you came up with that number. That is insane. No one has any idea how long it is going to take or if it is EVER going to happen but no way that statement is accurate. We were in the running for a conference finals appearance last year, and with the core players we have right now we absolutely can be a contender in the next few years. Heck, if he had gotten even league average goaltending we could very well have been a contender THIS year.

No offense but that statement goes back to Viqsi's statement about spoiled fans and not knowing true suffering.

 

[Viqsi]

What are you hoping for with Columbus? Have you stopped watching? They are not making the playoffs this year.

Team building and player development, basically. Hoping and praying that Tortorella isn't the massive regression I fear he could be. Watching the kids along the blueline improve - heck, Jones' play alone is just fun to watch. Watching Wennberg start to show off more badass qualities. And Korpisalo's been pretty awesome.

There's always things to look for.

 

[NSH615]

Not trying to be argumentative here and I am assuming you were being serious but 5-10 years? I would love to know how you came up with that number. That is insane. No one has any idea how long it is going to take or if it is EVER going to happen but no way that statement is accurate. We were in the running for a conference finals appearance last year, and with the core players we have right now we absolutely can be a contender in the next few years. Heck, if he had gotten even league average goaltending we could very well have been a contender THIS year.

No offense but that statement goes back to Viqsi's statement about spoiled fans and not knowing true suffering.

The 5-10 years was because as long as Poile is here this team is a fringe team when it comes to making the playoffs/1st round exit/1st round win/2nd round early exit. As I said earlier, this never ending cycle of being too good for their own good. Until he is gone and the new GM has had several years to clean house, I don't see things improving. And for all we know the new GM may not even improve things.

As to your don't know true suffering, I would gladly accept a 3 or 4 year basement experience if it gets this team turned around properly.

Team building and player development, basically. Hoping and praying that Tortorella isn't the massive regression I fear he could be. Watching the kids along the blueline improve - heck, Jones' play alone is just fun to watch. Watching Wennberg start to show off more badass qualities. And Korpisalo's been pretty awesome.

There's always things to look for.

My line of hope is this seesaw the Preds have been in for their existence, especially the last decade (minus 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons). They are too good to be bottom feeders with Poile's management thus this gives them these playoff hopes, but realistically the team is never going to get it done because the team is not capable due to the lack of talent on the roster due to not being able to draft low enough or attract real free agents. Thus we are always in this 12-22 range when it comes to draft position.

The things you mention here are fine and I would still watch for this.

 

[mikemcburn]

Well, I think you're wrong here....

Craig Smith's ice time has taken a hit, as has Wilson's. Right now, Smith's ice time is 15:07 per game and 8th on the team and well out of the top 6, his 2:09 of pp time per game is 7th.

Wilson is at 15:49 per game and is also out of the top 6, at number 7. His powerplay time is ranked 6th, just ahead of Smith's.

So it's not like either a playing top line minutes, both are playing 3rd line minutes, and a bit of pp time.

Justin Abdelkader 18:04 per game with 2:54 of pp time. 3rd forward on his team overall

Gustav Nyquist 15:25 with 2:25 pp time, 2:52 pp time. 6th forward on his team overall

Cody Eakin 16:18 with 1:22 pp time. 5th forward on his team overall

Artem Anisimov 18:27 with 2:15 pp time. 4th forward on his team overall

David Backes 19:24 with 2:25 pp time. 3rd forward on his team overall

Troy Brower 17:13 with 1:46 pp time. 6th forward on his team overall.

Jori Lehtera 15:59 with 1:46 pp time 8th forward on his team overall

Marian Gaborik 15:09 with 1:52 pp time. 6th forward on his team overall

So is tied for the least ice time per game of all those listed, and Wilson is the 4th least.

I'm lost - what am I "wrong" about?

You plugged up a bunch of production vs games played stats for a slew of other guys to compare against Wilson/Smith so I asked after the context (ie: ice time, special teams, etc.). Thanks for that too, appreciate the time/effort of your follow up. But I'm lost where it goes to what I'm "wrong" about?

One thing that does flag out, incidentally, is that there's just no common reference point for plugging Hodgson's production in with that comparative gangle of guys - each of whom appear to be seeing near double or more ice at es and far more pp than the 2-3 shifts Hodgson has seen the last year.

 

[drwpreds]

The 5-10 years was because as long as Poile is here this team is a fringe team when it comes to making the playoffs/1st round exit/1st round win/2nd round early exit. As I said earlier, this never ending cycle of being too good for their own good. Until he is gone and the new GM has had several years to clean house, I don't see things improving. And for all we know the new GM may not even improve things..

So if you were named GM of this franchise today you would tear it completely apart and start over? A team with probably the best top 4 D core in the entire league, Rinne in goal (if he can find his game) and young offensive stars like Johansen and Forsberg (not to mention Neal) to build around? There are many teams that would like to have that.

I just do not get anyone saying we need to blow it up and start over. As I stated before, there are no guarantees- what if we do your plan and embark on a long, slow, painful rebuild- and then we wind up in the same situation we are in now??? There probably won't be NHL hockey in Nashville anymore if that happened..

 

[triggrman]

I'm lost - what am I "wrong" about?

You plugged up a bunch of production vs games played stats for a slew of other guys to compare against Wilson/Smith so I asked after the context (ie: ice time, special teams, etc.). Thanks for that too, appreciate the time/effort of your follow up. But I'm lost where it goes to what I'm "wrong" about?

One thing that does flag out, incidentally, is that there's just no common reference point for plugging Hodgson's production in with that comparative gangle of guys - each of whom appear to be seeing near double or more ice at es and far more pp than the 2-3 shifts Hodgson has seen the last year.

For Wilson/Smith's part, just seems to me that they've had it pretty easy and pretty sheltered here, at least this last season in particular. Not expected to carry a team, not benched or demoted in any meaningful way despite the long droughts, consistently getting the ozone opportunities, shuffled upwards whether earned or not, never missing a beat on the pp, not tasked with any pk duty, etc.

Have the other guys referenced enjoyed such a context? I dunno.

All the underlined is wrong. Both have seen their pp time drop, their roles dropped and been demoted to other lines. Both have spent time on the 3rd line or are currently on the 3rd line.

 

[mikemcburn]

All the underlined is wrong. Both have seen their pp time drop, their roles dropped and been demoted to other lines. Both have spent time on the 3rd line or are currently on the 3rd line.

Thanks for the clarification. However, I think if you double check that you'll find Wilson, and especially Smith, have not in fact seen a diminished role thru the season. Oh sure, there was a game Smith saw some pine in the 2nd period (or was it the 3rd?) if they were truly played according to the "line rushes" order posted by followers on twitter, then I guess we could pretend that they've been "demoted" to the 3rd line. But the practice and pre-game line orders have rarely matched up with how they're deployed come game time...

2014-2015
Smith 16:23 toi/game (4th) 02:03 pp/game (5th)
Wilson 15:12 toi/game (7th) 01:34 pp/game (7th)

2014-2015
Smith 15:44 toi/game (6th) 02:27 pp/game (6th)
Wilson 16:12 toi/game (5th) 02:28 pp/game (5th)

2015-2016
Smith 15:07 toi/game (7th) 02:09 pp/game (6th)
Wilson 15:35 toi/game (8th) 02:14 pp/game (7th)

I'm just not seeing any sort of significant drop in ice time at es or on the power-play between the two prior seasons and this one when they are on the so-called "3rd line". Sure, they've dropped a rank among forwards, but at es that accounts simply for the push up of Jarnkrok filling into the top 6 during all the injuries and the recent addition of Johansen. As for the powerplay (where they again have dropped a rank due Johansen) there's still a huge diff between 7th place Wilson at 2:14 avg/game and the 8th place guy Jarnkrok with his 0:50.

 

[triggrman]

Thanks for the clarification. However, I think if you double check that you'll find Wilson, and especially Smith, have not in fact seen a diminished role thru the season. Oh sure, there was a game Smith saw some pine in the 2nd period (or was it the 3rd?) if they were truly played according to the "line rushes" order posted by followers on twitter, then I guess we could pretend that they've been "demoted" to the 3rd line. But the practice and pre-game line orders have rarely matched up with how they're deployed come game time...

2014-2015
Smith 16:23 toi/game (4th) 02:03 pp/game (5th)
Wilson 15:12 toi/game (7th) 01:34 pp/game (7th)

2014-2015
Smith 15:44 toi/game (6th) 02:27 pp/game (6th)
Wilson 16:12 toi/game (5th) 02:28 pp/game (5th)

2015-2016
Smith 15:07 toi/game (7th) 02:09 pp/game (6th)
Wilson 15:35 toi/game (8th) 02:14 pp/game (7th)

I'm just not seeing any sort of significant drop in ice time at es or on the power-play between the two prior seasons and this one when they are on the so-called "3rd line". Sure, they've dropped a rank among forwards, but at es that accounts simply for the push up of Jarnkrok filling into the top 6 during all the injuries and the recent addition of Johansen. As for the powerplay (where they again have dropped a rank due Johansen) there's still a huge diff between 7th place Wilson at 2:14 avg/game and the 8th place guy Jarnkrok with his 0:50.

Whatever makes you feel better.


I've posted the results of guys making money in the 4m play, Smith and Wilson's production matches or exceeds most I posted but their time on ice is less.

 

[mikemcburn]

Whatever makes you feel better.

You too. Makes me feel good to imagine you feel good.

I've posted the results of guys making money in the 4m play, Smith and Wilson's production matches or exceeds most I posted but their time on ice is less.

Nothing I dispute. Lots of good examples to back up your point too.

Still, doesn't negate the fact that the Preds have invested into Smith/Wilson's development and are giving them waaaay more leeway (as in patience, unearned ice time, etc.) to find some consistency in top 6 roles than they'll ever get on new teams (if/when traded).

 

[Byrddog]

Since Jan. 1 Smith now has 2 goals and 2 asst's this is a span of 17 games. In large established markets the fans would be calling for his head. Mike is right if the guy wan in another market or Wilson for that matter they would not last half a season. It would start with diminished ice time resulting even less production resulting in in them being bought out or traded if possible. Our fanbase does not have high expectations for key players really and they have to fail for a longggggggg time before they feel any heat. Of course im speaking of forwards here. If they were defensemen or a goalie it would be entirely different. We like to boil those in oil.

 

[triggrman]

You too. Makes me feel good to imagine you feel good.
.

That's kind of weird man...

 

[triggrman]

Since Jan. 1 Smith now has 2 goals and 2 asst's this is a span of 17 games. In large established markets the fans would be calling for his head. Mike is right if the guy wan in another market or Wilson for that matter they would not last half a season. It would start with diminished ice time resulting even less production resulting in in them being bought out or traded if possible. Our fanbase does not have high expectations for key players really and they have to fail for a longggggggg time before they feel any heat. Of course im speaking of forwards here. If they were defensemen or a goalie it would be entirely different. We like to boil those in oil.

Stamkos was on a one goal in 10 game streak until last night, and he's getting ready to get a 10M contract.

 

[triggrman]

Let me say this though. I am not happy with Smith's play, Wilson when he's healthy is still playing well, he still looks good on the ice but isn't getting the production for whatever reason. Smith I notice for negative reasons, that's not good.

I think Wilson is making the plays he's just not getting much finish from his line-mates and on the other side, he's not finishing plays he gets either.

I think Smith is struggling and it's getting worse. He's earned 3rd line minutes.

What I don't understand is why Fisher gets a pass, hell, Smith has almost as many goals as Fisher has points.

 

[mikemcburn]

Since Jan. 1 Smith now has 2 goals and 2 asst's this is a span of 17 games. In large established markets the fans would be calling for his head. Mike is right if the guy wan in another market or Wilson for that matter they would not last half a season. It would start with diminished ice time resulting even less production resulting in in them being bought out or traded if possible. Our fanbase does not have high expectations for key players really and they have to fail for a longggggggg time before they feel any heat. Of course im speaking of forwards here. If they were defensemen or a goalie it would be entirely different. We like to boil those in oil.

lol. Poor Rinne.

Stamkos was on a one goal in 10 game streak until last night, and he's getting ready to get a 10M contract.

And Hodgson has more ES goals this season than Wilson has had in nearly a full year, but he's in the AHL while Wilson is still being played like an actual 2nd liner. Diff strokes for diff players for diff circumstances. And no one is gonna mistake Wilson or Smith for being a "just snake bit" Stamkos.

Let me say this though. I am not happy with Smith's play, Wilson when he's healthy is still playing well, he still looks good on the ice but isn't getting the production for whatever reason. Smith I notice for negative reasons, that's not good.

I think Wilson is making the plays he's just not getting much finish from his line-mates and on the other side, he's not finishing plays he gets either.

I think Smith is struggling and it's getting worse. He's earned 3rd line minutes.

What I don't understand is why Fisher gets a pass, hell, Smith has almost as many goals as Fisher has points.

Maybe with Fisher (and Ribeiro) there's just a general fluff off cuz the likelihood of either being moved is so slim, while with Wilson and Smith there are still options and possible trades? It helps that they're both still young and so in theory anyway, with time left to improve and become the players once imagined/hoped for. Fisher though? Not so much.

 

[wadesworld]

Since Jan. 1 Smith now has 2 goals and 2 asst's this is a span of 17 games. In large established markets the fans would be calling for his head. Mike is right if the guy wan in another market or Wilson for that matter they would not last half a season. It would start with diminished ice time resulting even less production resulting in in them being bought out or traded if possible. Our fanbase does not have high expectations for key players really and they have to fail for a longggggggg time before they feel any heat. Of course im speaking of forwards here. If they were defensemen or a goalie it would be entirely different. We like to boil those in oil.

We just listed half-a-dozen players, many of whom are in traditional hockey markets who are either barely ahead of Smith, or behind him.

Seems like they're lasting to me.