COVID-19: The final countdown

[ColePens]

Granted, I see many improperly wearing masks. The most common is with the nose exposed. And granted that the closings have gone overboard in some areas given the competing costs and risks. Schools especially, there is no other way to read it but that teachers are taking advantage of the situation given the CDC even recommends reopening, if done properly, is safe.

But it should not be a debate that masking and social distancing does work to reduce the spread of the virus. Even imperfect masking. There is a balance between reopening smartly and mostly shutting down. And a lot of it depends on people at least trying to do the right things.

Now PA is a VERY bad example (because PA f***ing sucks) but when is the crossover of decision vs. mandate. We are a loooooooooooong way from flattening the curve. So if our vulnerable are able to get vaccinated, walking into a gym with a mask in like July is going to be a choice, right?

Now once again - if the business mandates it, I don't care. That's a business choice. That is something I can always follow. But I'm looking more for the idea of when will the mask thing be more of a decision than a mandate. I feel right now we can equally agree it's a mandate.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Now PA is a VERY bad example (because PA f***ing sucks) but when is the crossover of decision vs. mandate. We are a loooooooooooong way from flattening the curve. So if our vulnerable are able to get vaccinated, walking into a gym with a mask in like July is going to be a choice, right?

Now once again - if the business mandates it, I don't care. That's a business choice. That is something I can always follow. But I'm looking more for the idea of when will the mask thing be more of a decision than a mandate. I feel right now we can equally agree it's a mandate.

I have no crystal ball. But my guess is that we will see the death rates diminish exponentially in the coming months as the most vulnerable gain protection. To the point where in the spring we may be seeing an 80 percent or so reduction in deaths. But people will still be dying. But instead of thousands per month nationwide you may see a few hundred die.

So with that said, I believe that social distancing and masking will be with us until next Thanksgiving/Christmas. But you will see people able to do a lot more as time goes on. Travel, including international travel. Restaurants, gyms, and everything else. But with the precautions still in place to a degree because the virus will still be with us and people will still be dying.

 

[ColePens]

I have no crystal ball. But my guess is that we will see the death rates diminish exponentially in the coming months as the most vulnerable gain protection. To the point where in the spring we may be seeing an 80 percent or so reduction in deaths. But people will still be dying. But instead of thousands per month nationwide you may see a few hundred die.

So with that said, I believe that social distancing and masking will be with us until next Thanksgiving/Christmas. But you will see people able to do a lot more as time goes on. Travel, including international travel. Restaurants, gyms, and everything else. But with the precautions still in place to a degree because the virus will still be with us and people will still be dying.

I think you are spot on with your timeline and educated guesses. I will just say that I do think it should be a businesses decision once we we move out of our most vulnerable phase on how they want to be. Coronavirus was with us before. The flu is with us. We don't shut down during bad flu seasons. Hell we don't even wear masks. So i would like to see after the vulnerable all had a chance (in PA it feels so far away) that masks become optional and up to the business to enforce. Like no shoes, no shirt, no service.

I'm not advocating for or against wearing them, I'm just saying at some point that has to become an option and not a mandate.

 

[BHD]

Another day where no new cases are recorded in Moncton. Only 3 new ones in the province.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I think you are spot on with your timeline and educated guesses. I will just say that I do think it should be a businesses decision once we we move out of our most vulnerable phase on how they want to be. Coronavirus was with us before. The flu is with us. We don't shut down during bad flu seasons. Hell we don't even wear masks. So i would like to see after the vulnerable all had a chance (in PA it feels so far away) that masks become optional and up to the business to enforce. Like no shoes, no shirt, no service.

I'm not advocating for or against wearing them, I'm just saying at some point that has to become an option and not a mandate.

We agree on much. But not this. I think that we can increase indoor dining, basically almost everything. But we should still require masks to get on an airplane. To move around a restaurant, even if it is at 60% capacity or so. And keep social distancing. Until we reach herd immunity we need to continue common sense precautions. Because this is much more dangerous than the flu. Yes, we lose people to the flu every year, but it is not comparable. This is much worse. You die in an awful way. Like you are drowning.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And we STILL don't have our act together.

 

[ColePens]

We agree on much. But not this. I think that we can increase indoor dining, basically almost everything. But we should still require masks to get on an airplane. To move around a restaurant, even if it is at 60% capacity or so. And keep social distancing. Until we reach herd immunity we need to continue common sense precautions. Because this is much more dangerous than the flu. Yes, we lose people to the flu every year, but it is not comparable. This is much worse. You die in an awful way. Like you are drowning.

Once again - we are not in disagreement because the airline can simply say "We require masks" and we can all live that out. So in that regard - sure.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated and our "leaders" stop throwing people into nursing homes like disgusting human beings, this will not have the death rate equivalent. So that would not be the case. Businesses should be able to open 100% pretty soon and people can make the choices they need/want to make.

The idea here is not to control. The idea here is to give people the freedom to choose. It's that simple. And that is the thing about morals, consistency, and values. At the end of the day, people need to make the decision they need to make. This absurd and disgusting notion that people are "selfish" because they want to operate their business is insane. I'm watching some really disgusting stuff going on. That is not their responsibility in this great country. Maybe elsewhere, but not here. That decision can be made by the fine people of this country.

Remember - the goal was to keep hospitals from being overrun. We moved the goal posts so far it isn't even funny. And I will reiterate for the 5000000th time. I made the CHOICE, myself, to basically live in a quarantine for the loved ones I caregive for. That is a choice. I don't think I'm out of line just asking it simply to be a choice. I made my choice. I want a business owner to have a choice. I want a mother and father to have a choice for their children. I want a bartender to have a choice.

And if the government is so hell bent on financially supporting those who don't want, then feel free. But they can choose to stay quarantined/safe and the ones who are okay with it can do their thing. It really baffles me why this isn't common sense.

 

[ColePens]

And i'm assuming someone will show a rebuttal of "Is it not common sense to try and save as many people as possible!" then we get into just the reckoning lockdowns have on this world with no proof they work. And we get into the hypocrisy of this world that we won't stop simple things that lead to #1 killer in America (heart) so I would typically just trap a person and let them fall into that hole, but I'm very busy at work and don't have time to spend 13 pages going through that.

 

[Factorial]

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And i'm assuming someone will show a rebuttal of "Is it not common sense to try and save as many people as possible!" then we get into just the reckoning lockdowns have on this world with no proof they work. And we get into the hypocrisy of this world that we won't stop simple things that lead to #1 killer in America (heart) so I would typically just trap a person and let them fall into that hole, but I'm very busy at work and don't have time to spend 13 pages going through that.

We have spoken about this. It is a tough balance between unemployment deaths and covid-19 deaths.

I have no good solution to that.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

And i'm assuming someone will show a rebuttal of "Is it not common sense to try and save as many people as possible!" then we get into just the reckoning lockdowns have on this world with no proof they work. And we get into the hypocrisy of this world that we won't stop simple things that lead to #1 killer in America (heart) so I would typically just trap a person and let them fall into that hole, but I'm very busy at work and don't have time to spend 13 pages going through that.

The idea that lockdowns are not effective is flagrant disinformation.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Once again - we are not in disagreement because the airline can simply say "We require masks" and we can all live that out. So in that regard - sure.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated and our "leaders" stop throwing people into nursing homes like disgusting human beings, this will not have the death rate equivalent. So that would not be the case. Businesses should be able to open 100% pretty soon and people can make the choices they need/want to make.

The idea here is not to control. The idea here is to give people the freedom to choose. It's that simple. And that is the thing about morals, consistency, and values. At the end of the day, people need to make the decision they need to make. This absurd and disgusting notion that people are "selfish" because they want to operate their business is insane. I'm watching some really disgusting stuff going on. That is not their responsibility in this great country. Maybe elsewhere, but not here. That decision can be made by the fine people of this country.

Remember - the goal was to keep hospitals from being overrun. We moved the goal posts so far it isn't even funny. And I will reiterate for the 5000000th time. I made the CHOICE, myself, to basically live in a quarantine for the loved ones I caregive for. That is a choice. I don't think I'm out of line just asking it simply to be a choice. I made my choice. I want a business owner to have a choice. I want a mother and father to have a choice for their children. I want a bartender to have a choice.

And if the government is so hell bent on financially supporting those who don't want, then feel free. But they can choose to stay quarantined/safe and the ones who are okay with it can do their thing. It really baffles me why this isn't common sense.

The majority people in this country seem to have made a public decision to take this virus more seriously. That is part of living in society, it's not about letting an individual do whatever he wants with no regard for others.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The idea that lockdowns are not effective is flagrant disinformation.

I have posted before several times the link showing pretty clearly that unemployment kills. Over 47,000 deaths for each 1 percent of unemployment. So the issue is more two edged even though I agree with your general premise.

As the most vulnerable populations get vaccinated and death rates plummet the case for lockdowns becomes untenable as the deaths from unemployment will vastly outnumber covid-19 deaths prevented by lockdowns. So we are quickly getting to the point where lockdowns are indefensible. Continued distancing and masks, yes. Even those vaccinated might become spreaders. We don't know yet.

 

[ColePens]

The idea that lockdowns are not effective is flagrant disinformation.

I'll challenge this mindset. If lockdowns worked, Florida should be astronomically worse than PA and NY. Why wouldn't I use Florida as an example of how a solid compromise between good faith in a human that will make the right choice for themselves? Open schools and they are in the top 20 in the country in keeping their kids safe.

My ask here is not some free reign wildness. It's simply choice over mandate. And it's scary when conversation can't even be had and you see a response like @Factorial while proof is staring you right in the face. And I bet you 10 trillion dollars I've taken far more precautions than everyone in this thread as by now hopefully everyone knows my story. I feel there is a slam dunk easy compromise out there and the tribal efforts to stay glued to a side can't get through their unfortunate stubbornness. It's like Mike Sullivan on steroids.

Why are we ignoring Florida? Why are we ignoring full proof from CDC and their .002% chance of death for those without pre-existing conditions that are young/healthy. Why are we ignoring this? Why can't we look to lockdown cities and see oh... it's not working. Shocking. Or better yet, let me ask this. Why can't we even look to have a conversation or compromise? That is the baffling part when there is more than enough evidence out there that would support it.

 

[Factorial]

I'll challenge this mindset. If lockdowns worked, Florida should be astronomically worse than PA and NY. Why wouldn't I use Florida as an example of how a solid compromise between good faith in a human that will make the right choice for themselves? Open schools and they are in the top 20 in the country in keeping their kids safe.

My ask here is not some free reign wildness. It's simply choice over mandate. And it's scary when conversation can't even be had and you see a response like @Factorial while proof is staring you right in the face. And I bet you 10 trillion dollars I've taken far more precautions than everyone in this thread as by now hopefully everyone knows my story. I feel there is a slam dunk easy compromise out there and the tribal efforts to stay glued to a side can't get through their unfortunate stubbornness. It's like Mike Sullivan on steroids.

Why are we ignoring Florida? Why are we ignoring full proof from CDC and their .002% chance of death for those without pre-existing conditions that are young/healthy. Why are we ignoring this? Why can't we look to lockdown cities and see oh... it's not working. Shocking. Or better yet, let me ask this. Why can't we even look to have a conversation or compromise? That is the baffling part when there is more than enough evidence out there that would support it.

Take a deep breath ColePens.

My response was to Mssr, Jaded-Fan. It's a clip from the same press conference that his gif was from with April Ryan. It had nothing to do with your post.

 

[EightyOne]

So, I am pretty torn right now. I work in a high-risk environment. But I have worked an entire year now with PPE and safe practices and avoided sickness through some really terrible spikes in California.

A year ago, if a vaccine was available, I would have taken it 1000%, but, with overall numbers falling and the anecdotal ability of mine to avoid getting sick so far, I am kinda not really wanting to jump into an RNA vaccine anymore....really torn....personally, I am not an at risk individual, and if I have to continue the lockdown protocols and PPE restrictions when vaccinated I am not seeing much incentive.

Still waiting for a real study that shows if you can spread or not after vaccination, as the only reason I would is to interact with my elderly parents--but if there is less than a 100% guarantee, I dunno....

I guess 'everyone' should get the vaccine, regardless? But still, with such a low death rate it has been....an interesting response, overall.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

“What is really quite striking in these numbers is that they only reflect the first half of the year ... I would expect that these numbers would only get worse,” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, a health equity researcher and dean at the University of California, San Francisco, said, according to The Associated Press.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

So, I am pretty torn right now. I work in a high-risk environment. But I have worked an entire year now with PPE and safe practices and avoided sickness through some really terrible spikes in California.

A year ago, if a vaccine was available, I would have taken it 1000%, but, with overall numbers falling and the anecdotal ability of mine to avoid getting sick so far, I am kinda not really wanting to jump into an RNA vaccine anymore....really torn....personally, I am not an at risk individual, and if I have to continue the lockdown protocols and PPE restrictions when vaccinated I am not seeing much incentive.

Still waiting for a real study that shows if you can spread or not after vaccination, as the only reason I would is to interact with my elderly parents--but if there is less than a 100% guarantee, I dunno....

I guess 'everyone' should get the vaccine, regardless? But still, with such a low death rate it has been....an interesting response, overall.

That is of course a personal choice.

And no choice is risk free. I can't guarantee not having an adverse reaction. No one can.

However, I would argue that literally hundreds of millions of shots have been given. The US alone is giving over 1.5 million shots a day. And you haven't heard anything major going wrong. That is a very low chance of bad.

On the other hand chancing getting the virus, and dying or at least being permanently disabled, even if seemingly healthy, the chances are by a huge percentage higher. Just because you have been lucky so far does not mean that you will continue to be lucky.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And this one is for Cole. Talking about how they struck a very good balance between remaining relatively open but targeting vulnerable communities and emphasizing distancing and masks while out.

The facts speak for themselves: Florida's coronavirus death rate sits at 136 per 100,000 people, the 27th lowest in the country and substantially lower than states such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Unlike other states, however, Florida was uniquely challenged by COVID-19 due to over a fifth of its population being over the age of 65. No other state, save Maine, which has a 0.1% greater senior population, houses such a large elderly population.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And some more good news. Finally some evidence that being vaccinated does help to prevent you from transmitting the disease. The question asked by EightyOne above.

While he said more conclusive research was still needed, the doctor pointed to two studies out this month.

Taken together, they are some of the earliest evidence we have that even if vaccinated people do get sick with COVID-19 — in what's called a "breakthrough" infection — the chances that they will then transmit their illness to others are far lower than if they had remained unvaccinated.

 

[ColePens]

And this one is for Cole. Talking about how they struck a very good balance between remaining relatively open but targeting vulnerable communities and emphasizing distancing and masks while out.

Let's call a spade a spade. All of us were like "WHAT THE f*** ARE YOU DOING?"

And hey.. I'm a man who can admit when wrong. He was right and I was wrong. And I laugh so much when I see allllllllllllllll the people flock to vacation there while absolute pumping nonsense about lockdowns, masks, etc.

But I was originally wrong about that dude and he really has just owned it. People need to stop thinking left/right and just start realizing he has found something that is working and a good mutual compromise among all Americans.

 

[The Old Master]

The majority people in this country seem to have made a public decision to take this virus more seriously. That is part of living in society, it's not about letting an individual do whatever he wants with no regard for others.

the highest regard for others would be to let them live their own lives, and not have those who think they are smarter than everyone else try to tell them how or what they need to do.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Let's call a spade a spade. All of us were like "WHAT THE f*** ARE YOU DOING?"

And hey.. I'm a man who can admit when wrong. He was right and I was wrong. And I laugh so much when I see allllllllllllllll the people flock to vacation there while absolute pumping nonsense about lockdowns, masks, etc.

But I was originally wrong about that dude and he really has just owned it. People need to stop thinking left/right and just start realizing he has found something that is working and a good mutual compromise among all Americans.

The point is that he didn't simply say no lockdowns. It was coupled with common sense targetted restrictions. Measures aimed at protecting the most vulnerable. Masks. Social distancing. Florida did have restrictions. They were simply much more targetted.

 

[Jacob]

Researchers urging governments to hold off on second Pfizer dose | WGN-TV

 

[ColePens]

Researchers urging governments to hold off on second Pfizer dose | WGN-TV

Little click-baity

They've known that I think since the beginning but if there is no substantial evidence, the best way is to follow the current protocol. I forget what state (or maybe country?) was trying it - but they were just trying to give out 1st dose only. I would say we would need a lot of trial/error to see how that all plays out.