COVID-19: The final countdown

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BHD

Vejmelka for Vezina
Dec 27, 2009
38,124
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Moncton, NB
Fortunate to be situated in this part of the country.

Halifax Today said:
"A quarter of Canadians picked one of the Atlantic Canadian provinces as having done the best job and almost no one said that Atlantic Canadian provinces did the worst job," said Chapman.
 
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Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
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Pittsburgh
Little click-baity :laugh:

They've known that I think since the beginning but if there is no substantial evidence, the best way is to follow the current protocol. I forget what state (or maybe country?) was trying it - but they were just trying to give out 1st dose only. I would say we would need a lot of trial/error to see how that all plays out.

UK OKs Single Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Lack of Evidence

And as you would guess, the UK has been among the best in Europe in the percentage of population vaccinated. Better than you would guess. Almost a quarter of the population. Most of Europe is around 5%. As an aside, there have been recent articles that China and the US are doing much better economically emerging from the vaccine than Europe is. So while we are making mistakes, other regions are doing even worse. Israel by far has the greatest percentage of its population vaccinated. And I believe with two doses.

Europe: COVID-19 vaccination rate by country 2021 | Statista
 

ColePens

RIP Fugu Buffaloed & parabola
Mar 27, 2008
107,022
67,647
Pittsburgh
UK OKs Single Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Lack of Evidence

And as you would guess, the UK has been among the best in Europe in the percentage of population vaccinated. Better than you would guess. Almost a quarter of the population. Most of Europe is around 5%. As an aside, there have been recent articles that China and the US are doing much better economically emerging from the vaccine than Europe is. So while we are making mistakes, other regions are doing even worse. Israel by far has the greatest percentage of its population vaccinated. And I believe with two doses.

Europe: COVID-19 vaccination rate by country 2021 | Statista

I am very very interested to see the one dose scenario over time. If we want to be realistic let's get to the table and talk it out. I think that is always the answer.

1) With the vulnerable and/or people with pre-existing conditions... let's go 2 doses because that's what pfizer set it up as. Let's stay the course and not re-invent the wheel just yet until more data is out there. Once more data is out there, we can adjust if we need to.

2) With under 50 with no pre-existing conditions, fatality rate being less than .02, maybe we do the one dose scenario here. Let's give that a shot (pun intended) because these people are less vulnerable.

Now ultimately, I am one of the very few around here that stay consistent with my message. I say.. let the people choose. This would be more difficult to set up, but ideally we can have people sign off on just 1 vs. 2. We can go in with the expectation of two, but for someone who may be 30 and no pre-existing conditions.. they can say "I only want 1 and that is good for me." That opens up some vaccines.

Just putting thoughts out there. It isn't perfect but this is how science works. Once more data becomes available, WORK WITH PEOPLE and talk it out. Communicate. It's legit that simple.
 

Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
14,304
Pittsburgh
I am very very interested to see the one dose scenario over time. If we want to be realistic let's get to the table and talk it out. I think that is always the answer.

1) With the vulnerable and/or people with pre-existing conditions... let's go 2 doses because that's what pfizer set it up as. Let's stay the course and not re-invent the wheel just yet until more data is out there. Once more data is out there, we can adjust if we need to.

2) With under 50 with no pre-existing conditions, fatality rate being less than .02, maybe we do the one dose scenario here. Let's give that a shot (pun intended) because these people are less vulnerable.

Now ultimately, I am one of the very few around here that stay consistent with my message. I say.. let the people choose. This would be more difficult to set up, but ideally we can have people sign off on just 1 vs. 2. We can go in with the expectation of two, but for someone who may be 30 and no pre-existing conditions.. they can say "I only want 1 and that is good for me." That opens up some vaccines.

Just putting thoughts out there. It isn't perfect but this is how science works. Once more data becomes available, WORK WITH PEOPLE and talk it out. Communicate. It's legit that simple.

I agree with this. Two doses for 65 and older and those with actual preexisting conditions that they are under doctor treatment for. And one for everyone else for now. The first dose gives you around 55% to 60% immunity, so no worse than most flu vaccines. At worse they will have to redo it and we will get three shots later. But it will achieve herd immunity much faster.
 
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ColePens

RIP Fugu Buffaloed & parabola
Mar 27, 2008
107,022
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Pittsburgh
I agree with this. Two doses for 65 and older and those with actual preexisting conditions that they are under doctor treatment for. And one for everyone else for now. The first dose gives you around 55% to 60% immunity, so no worse than most flu vaccines. At worse they will have to redo it and we will get three shots later. But it will achieve herd immunity much faster.

Well sir... would you look at that. A simple communication taking the data we have and looking to compromise and work together. Seems to work every time! :laugh:

But yeah I am with you. It's tough. You've said that many times. These decisions aren't easy and I respect that. I sit behind a keyboard. It's a lot easier for me to say what to do because I don't have deaths on my hands. So I respect those making these decisions. But if we talk it out and try to prepare (PA... I'm looking at you), things go a lot smoother.
 

Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
14,304
Pittsburgh
Well sir... would you look at that. A simple communication taking the data we have and looking to compromise and work together. Seems to work every time! :laugh:

But yeah I am with you. It's tough. You've said that many times. These decisions aren't easy and I respect that. I sit behind a keyboard. It's a lot easier for me to say what to do because I don't have deaths on my hands. So I respect those making these decisions. But if we talk it out and try to prepare (PA... I'm looking at you), things go a lot smoother.

And I just found a study to back the idea with hard data.

Researchers call for second Pfizer vaccine dose to be delayed

Canada-based researchers Danuta Skowronski and Gaston De Serres argued that based on analysis of documents submitted by Pfizer to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the vaccine has an approximately 92.6 percent efficacy rate following the first dose.

Pfizer’s vaccine, which is currently authorized to be issued in two doses 21 days apart, reported a 94.8 percent effectiveness against COVID-19 following two doses.

Given the relatively small increase in the efficacy rate between the first and the second dose, the authors argued in the letter that “the benefits derived from a scarce supply of vaccine could be maximized by deferring second doses until all priority group members are offered at least one dose.”

The researches do admit that it can not be known how long one dose alone provides protection, so that is the one potential downside. Although it is not a sure downside.
 
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The Old Master

come and take it.
Sep 27, 2004
17,414
4,769
burgh
That is of course a personal choice.

And no choice is risk free. I can't guarantee not having an adverse reaction. No one can.

However, I would argue that literally hundreds of millions of shots have been given. The US alone is giving over 1.5 million shots a day. And you haven't heard anything major going wrong. That is a very low chance of bad..
and we are talking about the most high risk people [except for the line jumpers] not the healthy ones. imo
 
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bambamcam4ever

107 and counting
Feb 16, 2012
14,303
6,344
That is of course a personal choice.

And no choice is risk free. I can't guarantee not having an adverse reaction. No one can.

However, I would argue that literally hundreds of millions of shots have been given. The US alone is giving over 1.5 million shots a day. And you haven't heard anything major going wrong. That is a very low chance of bad.

On the other hand chancing getting the virus, and dying or at least being permanently disabled, even if seemingly healthy, the chances are by a huge percentage higher. Just because you have been lucky so far does not mean that you will continue to be lucky.
Literally survivor's bias. Of course most will survive if they contract the virus anyway, but I will take my chances with the vaccine's long term effects vs. those of the virus.

Another issue is that scientists are not always the best communicators. They will say that we don't know if the vaccine prevents spread- which is technically true, they don't want to commit to something if a controlled study hasn't been done. The public reads it as: "it doesn't prevent transmission." In reality, based on everything we know about this virus, it will help prevent the spread since it helps prevent the replication of the virus inside of you. The degree of which is tbd, but it seems promising so far.
 

Sideline

Registered User
May 23, 2004
11,053
2,734
I think he overestimates the number of people who have been infected, but he makes a lot of good points. I do think we're closer to the end than many realize.

I remain skeptical and think there will be another spike in April or May. I think people are feeling good about all the progress they see in deaths, case numbers, and vaccines. This will make them feel like it's safe to socialize more just as the new more contagious strains start to be a greater share of total infections.

I think the real end of this is June or July when a critical mass of people are vaccinated or previously infected. Unless a new strain has an escape mutation in which case this goes on for another year.
 

BHD

Vejmelka for Vezina
Dec 27, 2009
38,124
16,511
Moncton, NB
We aren't out of the woods by any means, but the last few weeks have been encouraging. As of today, all of New Brunswick is in the 'orange' phase of recovery. In other words, Edmundston - where cases were being recorded in double digits on a daily basis at one point - is improving. However, the UK variant - which has appeared in Newfoundland and Labrador - is looming.
 
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Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
14,304
Pittsburgh
This is great news.

However, it would have been nice to know ..... three months ago.



Pfizer submitted data to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) showing the vaccine is stable when stored between minus 13 degrees and 5 degrees Fahrenheit, temperatures commonly found in pharmaceutical freezers and refrigerators.

The company is asking the FDA to update its authorization of the vaccine to allow for vials to be stored at these temperatures for a total of two weeks as an alternative or complement to colder freezers.

Pfizer previously stated the vaccine must be stored at temperatures between minus 112 and minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit. It can remain stored at those temperatures for six months. Those requirements, which have posed challenges to rural hospitals, pharmacies and other vaccination sites, will become an option if the changes are approved by the FDA.
 

2wayPlay

Registered User
Dec 25, 2018
1,253
640
That is of course a personal choice.

And no choice is risk free. I can't guarantee not having an adverse reaction. No one can.

However, I would argue that literally hundreds of millions of shots have been given. The US alone is giving over 1.5 million shots a day. And you haven't heard anything major going wrong. That is a very low chance of bad.

On the other hand chancing getting the virus, and dying or at least being permanently disabled, even if seemingly healthy, the chances are by a huge percentage higher. Just because you have been lucky so far does not mean that you will continue to be lucky.


But what about the long term risks of Vax?? And I’m sure there are long term Covid risks too. Nobody knows that. Nobody knows anything.
 

Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
14,304
Pittsburgh
But what about the long term risks of Vax?? And I’m sure there are long term Covid risks too. Nobody knows that. Nobody knows anything.

No one has a crystal ball. However, we do have history, science and common sense.

Historically your chances of an adverse impact from taking a vaccine in extremely miniscule compared to taking your chances with whatever the vaccine is protecting you from. Playing the odds historically it is a no brainer.

The science tells us that especially these new MRNA based vaccines are safer and more effective than previous vaccines. Because no virus, dead or otherwise, enters your body. It simply replicates the protein that the virus uses to attach itself to cells to trigger your immune response. So only a protein enters your body. And the efficacy is world's better than the old fashioned ways growing dead viruses in eggs. Not only is it cheaper and faster but the efficacy is 95%. The old way is considered releasable if you only get a 50% response. Most like the flu vaccine rarely exceed 60% efficacy.

Common sense combines the above and says it is a no brainer to take the vaccine. Is it risk free? No. But is not taking the vaccine risk free? No. But the second choice is a hugely bigger risk than the first.
 

Jaded-Fan

Registered User
Mar 18, 2004
52,446
14,304
Pittsburgh
I swear to God though, if I take the vaccine and catch Covid again I'll kick some f***ing arse!

95% efficacy means that there is a one in twenty chance. That said, if it is anything like other vaccines, even if you get the virus again the impact should be lessened by quite a bit.
 
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