OT: Covid-19 (Part 43) Let 'em in

[HABitual Fan]

Is it a worrying sign that the number of 1st doses administered seems to have hit a wall? The large number of second doses is expected, as those who got the 1st want to get the 2nd as well. I see that many 2nd doses as a sign that whatever supply is available is not being used for 1st doses because the demand is no longer there. Correct me if I'm wrong, or is this simply the government meeting the 2nd dose dates given out, when people got their 1st shot?

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Is it a worrying sign that the number of 1st doses administered seems to have hit a wall? The large number of second doses is expected, as those who got the 1st want to get the 2nd as well. I see that many 2nd doses as a sign that whatever supply is available is not being used for 1st doses because the demand is no longer there. Correct me if I'm wrong, or is this simply the government meeting the 2nd dose dates given out, when people got their 1st shot?

I mean... Appointments taken into consideration, we're about to fetch 80% of eligible people being vaccinated. That's way higher than everywhere else in the world. We're bound to see the curb flatten/slow down at some point. Most civilized countries have plateau'd at roughly 60%. We're plateauing at 80%. That's fantastic.

 

[Lshap]

Week-to-Week Comparison

- CASES -
June 6: 193
June 13: 123 (70 less)

- HOSPITALIZATIONS -
June 6: 265
June 13: 254 (11 less)

- ICU -
June 6: 58
June 13: 54 (4 less)

- 1ST DOSES -
June 6: 5.59M doses administered
June 13: 5.84M doses administered (25K more doses administered)

- 2ND DOSES -
June 6: 580K doses administered
June 13: 950K doses administered (370K more doses administered)

_____________

Year-to-Year Comparison

- CASES -
June 13 2020: 128
June 13 2021: 123 (5 less)

- DEATHS -
June 13 2020: 27
June 13 2021: 1 (26 less)

- HOSPITALIZATIONS -
June 13 2020: 769
June 13 2021: 214 (555 less)

- ICU -
June 13 2020: 85
June 13 2021: 54 (31 less)

Most compelling are the year-to-year comparisons showing the reduction in deaths and hospitalizations between June 2020 and now. Good news and not surprising.

But the real test comes in three/four months when the normal cold & flu season starts. People will get sick, some with Covid, others with different flus. I hope the focus is on severity, not cases. As long as hospitals are fine, life needs to go on as normal without government intervention, as it did every year pre-Covid. It would be a massive mistake to simply react to a bump in cases by shutting things down again.

 

[WinterLion]

Is it a worrying sign that the number of 1st doses administered seems to have hit a wall? The large number of second doses is expected, as those who got the 1st want to get the 2nd as well. I see that many 2nd doses as a sign that whatever supply is available is not being used for 1st doses because the demand is no longer there. Correct me if I'm wrong, or is this simply the government meeting the 2nd dose dates given out, when people got their 1st shot?

1st doses will decline... especially after the 12-18 poulation catches up... but hopefully they will continue to crawl along... I think when people realize they can't cross borders as easily or have to get tested before sporting events etc... it will really push a bunch of folks to get the vaccine

 

[FrankMTL]

I mean... Appointments taken into consideration, we're about to fetch 80% of eligible people being vaccinated. That's way higher than everywhere else in the world. We're bound to see the curb flatten/slow down at some point. Most civilized countries have plateau'd at roughly 60%. We're plateauing at 80%. That's fantastic.

Exactly. It's quite normal at this point for the first dose vaccinations to have slowed down. Like you said, with appointments, we're at 79.16% of the population over 12 years old. We may even hit 82%-83% in the next month or so which would be fantastic.

 

[HockeyAddict]

Is it a worrying sign that the number of 1st doses administered seems to have hit a wall? The large number of second doses is expected, as those who got the 1st want to get the 2nd as well. I see that many 2nd doses as a sign that whatever supply is available is not being used for 1st doses because the demand is no longer there. Correct me if I'm wrong, or is this simply the government meeting the 2nd dose dates given out, when people got their 1st shot?

I think it normal/natural for there to be less first doses administered since we are approaching 80% of the population having already received the first shot so the "pool" of the population eligible for the first shot is much smaller than even a few weeks ago. Also, more and more people are due for their second doses so, of the available supply, a higher proportion will be used to administer those second doses.

 

[WinterLion]

Exactly. It's quite normal at this point for the first dose vaccinations to have slowed down. Like you said, with appointments, we're at 79.16% of the population over 12 years old. We may even hit 82%-83% in the next month or so which would be fantastic.

It's the key to not letting that shit back in and being able to party again!

 

[FrankMTL]

It's the key to not letting that shit back in and being able to party again!

 

[dinodebino]

Ontario-Québec borders Wednesday!!! Wooohooo!

 

[dinodebino]

Is it a worrying sign that the number of 1st doses administered seems to have hit a wall? The large number of second doses is expected, as those who got the 1st want to get the 2nd as well. I see that many 2nd doses as a sign that whatever supply is available is not being used for 1st doses because the demand is no longer there. Correct me if I'm wrong, or is this simply the government meeting the 2nd dose dates given out, when people got their 1st shot?

The 18-30 crowd is the lowest of all.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[buddahsmoka1]

Lockdowns did work at what they were intended to do: protecting healthcare systems that are not well designed at handling very large numbers of customers with severe illnesses. Saying that this is not the case is disingenuous at best. Saying that lockdowns have done nothing to prevent the spread of the virus while waving your hands in the air is dishonest, not backed by data and just an outright lie.

Here is a study out of many measuring the effect of lockdowns at curbing the disease spread : Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions | Nature Human Behaviour

New Study Indicates Lockdowns Didn’t Slow the Spread of Covid-19

Lockdown 'had no effect' on coronavirus pandemic in Germany

It's not an 'outright lie.' Most robust cross-national or cross-sectional time-series analyses show that lockdown measures had no discernable effect on virus spread, deaths, or whatever other metric you want to through in there.

The line about 'protecting health care systems' is a red herring. That may have been used as a talking point at the very beginning, but there's been lockdowns ever since and there has been virtually no threat of any healthcare system "shutting down."

 

[lo striver]

Ontario-Québec borders Wednesday!!! Wooohooo!

was it supposedly closed? I saw dozens of cars with Ont plates tthis weekend in and north of MTL

 

[HABitual Fan]

The 18-30 crowd is the lowest of all.

Very surprising, my son is in this group and all of them have gone to be vaccinated. His friends would probably take the shot in the eye, if it meant getting out of solitary confinement after almost a year and a half. Older adults i think are more free in the house and going to work etc.. Ones like my son, pretty much live in their rooms 24/7. He is in a difficult program so he was studying, eating, sleeping in the same room, now he is doing an internship where he is basically working from 8am till midnight or later. the only contact with his friends was if he had some free time and they met online to play a video game, also in the same room.

 

[Roadhouse]

was it supposedly closed? I saw dozens of cars with Ont plates tthis weekend in and north of MTL

Yes, at least the other way around for QC plates specifically. Called Public Health 3 times in 3 weeks to get the go-ahead on my parents coming over from Drummondville to help with my move on July 9th, they wouldn't commit. Wait until June 16th and see, Sir. That's all I got, they said OPP might turn them back where the 40 becomes the 417.

 

[GoodKiwi]

Orange zone was only allowing two adults.
now with yellow (starting today), it's up to 4 adults within 2 families.
you'll have better chances to celebrate with your sister and mother. you're a single family

At worst. your sister lives temporarily to help your mother since covid began.

Makes absolutely no difference to me as I'd still have to lie (3 different households), just to a lesser extent. I'm not comfortable with that.

 

[Licou]

New Study Indicates Lockdowns Didn’t Slow the Spread of Covid-19

Lockdown 'had no effect' on coronavirus pandemic in Germany

It's not an 'outright lie.' Most robust cross-national or cross-sectional time-series analyses show that lockdown measures had no discernable effect on virus spread, deaths, or whatever other metric you want to through in there.

The line about 'protecting health care systems' is a red herring. That may have been used as a talking point at the very beginning, but there's been lockdowns ever since and there has been virtually no threat of any healthcare system "shutting down."

Lol.. That first "study" is linked in an article classified under "Authoritarianism".

Look, for everyone of the studies you link, I can link two... This is a stupid game.

Anyway, no place for nuance in an argument... all or nothing... Confirmation bias... Yay internet.

I hated the lock downs too you know. They hurt me more than they helped me, especially considering that I have two young children at school/daycare, I wasn't really protected from Covid anyway. But looking at the people I know around me, I don't think we could have trusted individuals to reasonably lower their social contacts on their own without insane measures that hurt everyone else... But in an ideal world, we should have tested more, traced more aggressively and most importantly, trust citizens to limit their contacts...

 

[llamateizer]

Makes absolutely no difference to me as I'd still have to lie (3 different households), just to a lesser extent. I'm not comfortable with that.

I understand. It makes you feel like a criminal.
The rules are more severe than they should be and hopefully we won't get burned at the end of summer.

I'm a big rule follower in life. To be honest, I did skipped a few rules and took some calculated risk.


I want to enjoy my summer knowing that we might go back to curfew/lockdown and all the restrictions.

 

[buddahsmoka1]

Lol.. That first "study" is linked in an article classified under "Authoritarianism".

Look, for everyone of the studies you link, I can link two... This is a stupid game.

Anyway, no place for nuance in an argument... all or nothing... Confirmation bias... Yay internet.

I hated the lock downs too you know. They hurt me more than they helped me, especially considering that I have two young children at school/daycare, I wasn't really protected from Covid anyway. But looking at the people I know around me, I don't think we could have trusted individuals to reasonably lower their social contacts on their own without insane measures that hurt everyone else... But in an ideal world, we should have tested more, traced more aggressively and most importantly, trust citizens to limit their contacts...

Way to engage with the content. It's discussing a peer reviewed article.

Here's the direct link:

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And no, you will not 'find two' peer reviewed studies for every one I link that suggest lockdowns were effective. Because there are none that say that - the data is pretty clear on this issue.

 

[Adam Michaels]

I understand. It makes you feel like a criminal.
The rules are more severe than they should be and hopefully we won't get burned at the end of summer.

I'm a big rule follower in life. To be honest, I did skipped a few rules and took some calculated risk.


I want to enjoy my summer knowing that we might go back to curfew/lockdown and all the restrictions.

Basically, you want to get in the store that's been broken into to steal as many things as you can before the cops show up.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

yes but we had the same number of cases last year without vaccine...

I mean, the fact is we may end up having over a thousand (in Ontario) cases pop up again in the winter months. But very few of them will end up in the hospital, and transmission won’t be nearly as quick and exponential as it was pre-vaccines. The entire point is to alleviate pressure on the hospital system, which vaccines do successfully.

Yusss!

Now, Ford open up the Ontario "borders" so I can go visit my parents in Niagara. Oh! And start playing somr courses in Ottawa.

Opening up on Wednesday. I can go hike at Gatineau Park without the chance of being turned away, finally. Lol

 

[ClasslessGuy]

I mean, the fact is we may end up having over a thousand (in Ontario) cases pop up again in the winter months. But very few of them will end up in the hospital, and transmission won’t be nearly as quick and exponential as it was pre-vaccines. The entire point is to alleviate pressure on the hospital system, which vaccines do successfully.


Opening up on Wednesday. I can go hike at Gatineau Park without the chance of being turned away, finally. Lol

I'm in Chelsea and I confirm that a lot of people from Ottawa were in the park anyway lol

 

[dinodebino]

was it supposedly closed? I saw dozens of cars with Ont plates tthis weekend in and north of MTL

Yeah, I know. Ontarians were in Gatineau a plenty (go ask the Costco managers). But some buddies of mine were turned away while trying to cross to Ottawa during that period. Here, cops were very leniant unless they had a complaint from a citizen.

 

[Licou]

Way to engage with the content. It's discussing a peer reviewed article.

Here's the direct link:

Error - Cookies Turned Off

And no, you will not 'find two' peer reviewed studies for every one I link that suggest lockdowns were effective. Because there are none that say that - the data is pretty clear on this issue.

Absolutism...

I am not going to say you are wrong. The thesis you support without a hint of humility might very well be right. Saying that there are no credible peer reviewed research and data that credibly demonstrate that lock downs had an effect is absolutely false.. You are downright delusional if you think there is a consensus that lock downs had NO effect.

Absolutism... This reminds me of a teenage arguing about something..

 

[Treb]

Way to engage with the content. It's discussing a peer reviewed article.

Here's the direct link:

Error - Cookies Turned Off

And no, you will not 'find two' peer reviewed studies for every one I link that suggest lockdowns were effective. Because there are none that say that - the data is pretty clear on this issue.

Oops:
The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis
DEFINE_ME
Effectiveness of Localized Lockdowns in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Lockdown During COVID-19: The Greek Success
https://www.researchgate.net/profil...s-of-intervention-strategies-and-lockdown.pdf