OT: Covid-19 (Part 21) Come Together

[BehindTheTimes]

That's the thing - you don't test someone who is without symptoms. No country in the world has the capability to test all of their population.

What you assume is that if they have been quarantined for two weeks showing no symptoms they're healthy. Yet, that is no longer the case here. Those people in China went back to their jobs and continued spreading the virus. The outbreak I was told about happened at a manufacturing plant involving people that have been "locked up" for several months prior.

I don't buy that this virus causes asymptomatic infections in patients for months on end. There is a piece that you are missing imo.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Again this tells us nothing. So many reports coming out with no research and no peer review. Like the report a couple of weeks ago saying the virus mutated and is more contagious. Well it was peer reviewed and found to have many flaws.

Or it is entering the body through the testicles, or this and that, or it is reinfecting the same patients over again, which almost always turn out to be false.

 

[MXD]

I know you're just repeating what you were told, but how is it possible to measure how long someone's asymptomatic? How do you test for an extended absence of symptoms? It doesn't make sense.

Family of four. All asympti.atic
Person 1 is infected on day 1
Person 1 infects person 2 on day 6.
Person 2 infects person 3 on day 12.
Person 3 infects person 4 on day 18.

Which is how this cell has been kept alive for more than a month.

 

[GoodKiwi]

I don't buy that this virus causes asymptomatic infections in patients for months on end. There is a piece that you are missing imo.

You're certainly right saying that I don't have all the details.

I didn't mean to imply that the virus can continue to be infectious in a person after several months of self-quarantine. It is certainly not something that sounds feasible. Perhaps those "family clusters" were what spread it over family members over time and one of them eventually carried it out to the public, not sure. But the fact remains, people infected others after a prolonged self-isolation.

 

[GoodKiwi]

Family of four. All asympti.atic
Person 1 is infected on day 1
Person 1 infects person 2 on day 6.
Person 2 infects person 3 on day 12.
Person 3 infects person 4 on day 18.

Which is how this cell has been kept alive for more than a month.

Exactly what I was trying to express just above. The relative of my ex that I was told about has a family of 8 (wife, children and grand parents from each side) all living together.

 

[waffledave]

What you assume is that if they have been quarantined for two weeks showing no symptoms they're healthy. Yet, that is no longer the case here. Those people in China went back to their jobs and continued spreading the virus. The outbreak I was told about happened at a manufacturing plant involving people that have been "locked up" for several months prior.

I never really understood the whole 2 weeks thing. What was it based on? There are people who were sick for a few days, a week, and other who stayed consistently sick for 6+ weeks in hospital. Those who were sick for longer were contagious the whole time. So why would the range be any different for asymptomatic carriers? Is it not possible some asymptomatic carriers stay contagious for 6 weeks?

 

[Kriss E]

I don't know why you keep repeating that remaining close is not an option since i've agreed with you multiple times from the beginning.

Horracio said it again today, if we f***ed up, we're going to close again and he even said that it will even be harder than it was before…..so without the measures we talked about, it's all about the good faith of the people respecting the advices. That's where i have a problem cause they are not even doing it right now. Even in the confinement they didn't listened (big reason why we're one of the rare place in the world unable to drop our numbers of daily cases)

Of course Aruda will say this. He doesn't want people to go buck wild out there. He's acting like the extra worried parent and rightfully so. I'd probably do the same if I were in his shoes.
But he is not making a prediction, it's a warning. If people let loose completely and we're seeing hot spots pop up then they're close again. That's fine.

I don't know what you're talking about not dropping our daily cases. Just two days ago we hit our lowest number since April 11th, this is while we've increased our tests to over 10K and as industries like construction and landscaping are opening up. Numbers went back up today to 720 but that's still lower than our 900s peak.

Right now i'm seeing 30% who cares and respect the rules by the letter.
I'm also seeing 30% who simply don't give a shit.
There's 20% who will do half of what's needed
There's 20% who will always do the opposite just to make a point (Theorist, nuts and political freaks)

Meh..those are pretty random.
When I go out I see 90% respect measures every measure. You have 10% who get lost and forget to respect following arrows on the floor but they still are forced to follow some like washing their hands.
Important not to get sucked in to a number's game.

I know businesses are doing everything they can but if their customers and their employees don't masks....it won't be enough.
A microbiologist from Hong Kong said that the best way to protect ourselves from the virus spreading is the mask.....well, many study and country agree on this: Monsieur Legault, qu’attendez-vous?

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2020/05/21/monsieur-legault-quattendez-vous
If half the people wear mask, that's already a plus for us, and the more people wear one the more people are going to be inclined to put one on.

In HK most people wear them because if you don't you stand out. We need to reach that level, I'm telling all my friends to wear masks whenever they step out. Most of them have bought some, they'll tell their families, etc, etc...
The government clear does not want to push it as a mandatory thing because of possible judicial issues, so people have to step up.

In the end i want the same thing as you do but i'm not on board with leaving the faith of this experiment in the hands of the personal discipline of the people. We'll see in the next few days if the masks campaign worked, right now it doesn't cause i don't even see 50% of the people wearing it.

I'm not counting but am seeing more and more people wear some every time I go out.
Given how the government has handled this crisis...I'm good to give businesses a shot at keeping things safe.
Don't forget Aruda was saying how masks aren't useful at the beginning of this.

 

[Kriss E]

I never really understood the whole 2 weeks thing. What was it based on? There are people who were sick for a few days, a week, and other who stayed consistently sick for 6+ weeks in hospital. Those who were sick for longer were contagious the whole time. So why would the range be any different for asymptomatic carriers? Is it not possible some asymptomatic carriers stay contagious for 6 weeks?

My understanding is the virus' life within the body is about 2 weeks. People who stayed in the hospitals longer was due to complications as side effects to the virus. You can still be suffering from pneumonia while no longer being infected by the Covid virus.

 

[waffledave]

Open things up, ya, probably will see an increase in cases and perhaps even some roll back of certain businesses, but it won't necessarily require a full on lockdown again. You just don't know this, unlike the certainty of the economy going completely in the crapper if we don't open.

There's not going to be another full lockdown no matter what. The economy cannot survive it, period. Businesses are going to be spending huge money in the next little bit as they need to get inventory settled up, salaries going again, rents paid, expenses, etc... Most will be losing money for at least a month coming out of this, if not more. It's actually a huge financial risk for them to invest in reopening right now. If there's another lockdown before they can start breaking even, game over. Most won't even be able to afford staying open if they don't get at least 75% of their normal business.

 

[Lshap]

Family of four. All asympti.atic
Person 1 is infected on day 1
Person 1 infects person 2 on day 6.
Person 2 infects person 3 on day 12.
Person 3 infects person 4 on day 18.

Which is how this cell has been kept alive for more than a month.

Nothing in that timeline tells you that anyone was asymptomatic for weeks. And without symptoms, it doesn't tell you anything about when, where, how the infection happened, and who gave it to whom. And unless all four get tested, it doesn't even tell you anyone was sick in the first place. And even if all those healthy-feeling people got tested (almost impossible without symptoms) and tested positive, how do we know they remained positive for weeks?

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Exactly what I was trying to express just above. The relative of my ex that I was told about has a family of 8 (wife, children and grand parents from each side) all living together.

Well this is no different than what we already know. That patients can be asymptomatic and prolonged exposures increase the risk of transmission. I don’t see anything new here.

 

[waffledave]

I don't buy that this virus causes asymptomatic infections in patients for months on end. There is a piece that you are missing imo.

Most likely they will end up determining that this thing spreads highly due to air circulation systems. So apartment buildings and office buildings with shared air systems end up spreading it around a lot for months on end and most people don't even realize they got it.

 

[waffledave]

I don't know what you're talking about not dropping our daily cases. Just two days ago we hit our lowest number since April 11th, this is while we've increased our tests to over 10K and as industries like construction and landscaping are opening up. Numbers went back up today to 720 but that's still lower than our 900s peak.

Don't know what you're getting at here man... Our numbers are shit and they've consistently been really bad. We are indeed one of the only places a 2+ month lockdown and almost no improvement at all. We are doing it wrong here, not really debatable.

 

[GoodKiwi]

Well this is no different than what we already know. That patients can be asymptomatic and prolonged exposures increase the risk of transmission. I don’t see anything new here.

I disagree.

This gives us valuable info on how the 14 day period was pulled out of who-knows-whose-ass while the pandemic was rampant.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I disagree.

This gives us valuable info on how the 14 day period was pulled out of who-knows-whose-ass while the pandemic was rampant.

Don’t see anything that you presented that even suggests the two week timeline is wrong. I mean it could be, but not because of anything revealed here.

 

[GoodKiwi]

Don’t see anything that you presented that even suggests the two week timeline is wrong. I mean it could be, but not because of anything revealed here.

We'll agree on one thing I suppose. And that is we have no idea what this virus really is as of this moment. No one does.

My original intent was to deliver a message of the Chinese being really worried about this new outbreak. And let me tell you - the Chinese, and my ex in particular, are not someone who's easily worried.

You will not read much about it the news, it's China after all. We will never know the full extent of it. It might be just a blip on the radar or something much more serious, I've no idea.

I just thought it was appropriate for me to share the information I heard from someone "on the ground".

 

[Phil Parent]

Hey, remember when my father was hospitalized?

He's still there. He was on his way back to us, he was doing fine, could have come out tomorrow, even.

Today he had a fever spike all the way to the high 39s. After a solid two weeks without anything at all, doing physiotherapy to strenghten up, which he needed, and I was looking forward to continuing it.

So they've put him in isolation and COVID tested him again, waiting on the results.

Fever has since settled back to 37 and he has no other symptoms.

Just weird.

 

[MXD]

Nothing in that timeline tells you that anyone was asymptomatic for weeks. And without symptoms, it doesn't tell you anything about when, where, how the infection happened, and who gave it to whom. And unless all four get tested, it doesn't even tell you anyone was sick in the first place. And even if all those healthy-feeling people got tested (almost impossible without symptoms) and tested positive, how do we know they remained positive for weeks?

Well, I'm saying they were asymptomatic.
Why? Because I decided so. I'm God.

(And none got tested. None of them even know at this point they were infected. None of them will ever know.)

 

[Runner77]

No offense,but I listen to my ma.

I'll take it a step further. Run for your lives ...

 

[Runner77]

Reporter is taking liberties with a 3rs question. The MC lost control already. Man up, bud. Do like your Quebec counterpart.

As a guy who was in the business a long time, I think you're all too aware that follow-up questions are a reporter's bread and butter -- if you can get them in, that's the sweet spot for the answers you're trying to get.

If you can get away with it, I say do it.

We've seen this first hand and all too well with our patsy sports reporters covering the Habs, who mostly throw out softball questions and bail out. Granted, this isn't pro sports but the same approach is applicable.

You don't put out the questions you're entitled to, you put out the ones you can get away with.

 

[cphabs]

Family of four. All asympti.atic
Person 1 is infected on day 1
Person 1 infects person 2 on day 6.
Person 2 infects person 3 on day 12.
Person 3 infects person 4 on day 18.

Which is how this cell has been kept alive for more than a month.

Obviously this “cell” has been causing trouble for us ... but I think someone needs to remind it that we have survived much worse. Ice ages, plagues, famines and other crazy ass shit. Also, we have lasers now!

 

[llamateizer]

meanwhile, 1500 people still dying every day in the US :/

That's 4.5 death per million
Here we have 82 deaths

It's equivalent of 10 deaths per million.

We're doing way worse than the US.

The real question is if all deaths are reported like here (they're not)

 

[Runner77]

A lot, and I mean a lot of people are going on the "globalists-elite-Bill Gates-provoked pandemic" bandwagon in this province. Videos are a plenty and going viral on social media. Even friends and coworkers of mine have been sharing.
Wow. Never thought this would reach our small part of the world.

I'm not surprised. Probably a splinter group from "5G has caused the pandemic" cult.

 

[Runner77]

This is actually the first time I'm very vocal about something on Facebook or whatever. If I see someone in my contacts talking about this favorably I'm saying to their faces they are idiots, plain and simple. I don't care if they unfriend me.

I'm only vocal in here and that's all the time I have. I'm happy I'm not having to fight on social media, on top of it. I've unfriended them all pre-emptively by not getting involved with them and their petty squabbles.

 

[Runner77]

Not as high as the killer hornet story and the humoungous centipede EATING out a rat....But much worse than my feather-like centipedes at home.

You forgot your ire against Montrealers, fellow Gatinois and those kids who were not social distancing and who were making noise in front of your condo.

Surely, there must be some kind of scale for all of that.