COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[Armourboy]

Such as?

Construction sites, which along with nursing homes, was the #1 spreader of the virus in the city. Construction accounted for over 1000+ cases in the same time period with zero restrictions.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Construction sites, which along with nursing homes, was the #1 spreader of the virus in the city. Construction accounted for over 1000+ cases in the same time period with zero restrictions.

Ok, so obviously they should be shut down or restricted further too. Next?

 

[triggrman]

Ok, so obviously they should be shut down or restricted further too. Next?

No, bars and restaurants shouldn't have been shutdown like that, period, no justification. 22 cases doesn't warrant shutting down an entire industry.

 

[bdub24]

Semi-related, got my flu shot yesterday. Of course I stay home for most part. Maybe out shopping for food 2 hours out of the week and the occasional Drs appt.

 

[Armourboy]

Ok, so obviously they should be shut down or restricted further too. Next?

But they weren't and why was that?

In one case you don't even have the numbers to back the decision, yet in the case of construction they absolutely had those numbers and did nothing. That is why the mayor is being called out. It appears to be selective based on something other than numbers.

Was the mayor making the correct choice or was there another driving force and if so what was it? I've heard of two accusations already and a 3rd that is being investigated by a council member who won't make it public until he has proof ( it would apparently be so bad it would mean jail time so he wants to make sure it's true before making it public).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

No, bars and restaurants shouldn't have been shutdown like that, period, no justification. 22 cases doesn't warrant shutting down an entire industry.

So you WANTED them to have the same case load reported as construction sites and nursing homes, or what? How is it not obvious that they screwed up... on managing the places where the cases stayed high.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

But they weren't and why was that?

In one case you don't even have the numbers to back the decision, yet in the case of construction they absolutely had those numbers and did nothing. That is why the mayor is being called out. It appears to be selective based on something other than numbers.

Was the mayor making the correct choice or was there another driving force and if so what was it? I've heard of two accusations already and a 3rd that is being investigated by a council member who won't make it public until he has proof ( it would apparently be so bad it would mean jail time so he wants to make sure it's true before making it public).

This just reads like a conspiracy theory, though. Except it lacks the critical element of any kind of rationale at all, however far-fetched. Why does the driving force have to be anything beyond common sense and health authority recommendations, and that they screwed up by missing some areas that should have been shut down additionally? They haven't had a lot of time to feed meaningful data back into the loop. Now that they've got some good data, though, it's high time to feed it in: limitations on bars and restaurants are working = keep those, limitations on construction sites and nursing homes need to be ramped up. Simple. How they want to dance around their own internal insecurities on trying to "sell" these things publicly is just them being typically gutless political entities. They don't get off the hook for that, but it doesn't mean the answer isn't just sitting there staring them (and us) in the face already.

 

[Armourboy]

This just reads like a conspiracy theory, though. Except it lacks the critical element of any kind of rationale at all, however far-fetched. Why does the driving force have to be anything beyond common sense and health authority recommendations, and that they screwed up by missing some areas that should have been shut down additionally? They haven't had a lot of time to feed meaningful data back into the loop. Now that they've got some good data, though, it's high time to feed it in: limitations on bars and restaurants are working = keep those, limitations on construction sites and nursing homes need to be ramped up. Simple. How they want to dance around their own internal insecurities on trying to "sell" these things publicly is just them being typically gutless political entities. They don't get off the hook for that, but it doesn't mean the answer isn't just sitting there staring them (and us) in the face already.

Or someone was shoving money in their back pocket to leave them be. These numbers were from May, they've known since then. They didn't just overlook the biggest spreaders for the hell of it while they were shutting down other businesses.

 

[triggrman]

So you WANTED them to have the same case load reported as construction sites and nursing homes, or what? How is it not obvious that they screwed up... on managing the places where the cases stayed high.

So you think it's okay to take away people's jobs and livelyhood because it might have spread more if they were opened?

Funny they announced today they're lifting restrictions on nursing homes....

BTW, when Cooper shut down the bars for the 2nd time, he referenced the reasoning as being a high number of cases through contact tracing... So you're saying, he was being honest, not lying?

 

[FossilFndr]

Semi-related, got my flu shot yesterday. Of course I stay home for most part. Maybe out shopping for food 2 hours out of the week and the occasional Drs appt.

Got mine Tuesday

 

[PredsV82]

There is plenty of evidence that bars spread COVID. Dine in restaurants are less of a problem.

TMA Chart Shows COVID-19 Risks for Various Activities

I dont know why Nashvilles data is what it is. It certainly doesnt make sense, and shouldnt be taken as gospel for the whole country.

I do think a better effort should be made to distinguish bars from restaraunts that serve alcohol as there appears to be a difference in risk between one and the other.

But to say that only 22 out of 20000 cases came from bars strains credibility. There is something we arent hearing. I mean, if these numbers were from a time when bars were already closed, I could believe it, but if those numbers are purported to be from a time when bars were open, I just dont see how that's possible

 

[Predsanddead24]

I don't feel like arguing about what should or shouldn't be open in Nashville and I no longer live there so not really my place anyways, but the original article omits a lot of other context surrounding the emails which make them far less shady. They also did give the numbers to the reporter who asked for them (leading to the email exchange) which he then wrote an article about.

 

[PredsV82]

No, bars and restaurants shouldn't have been shutdown like that, period, no justification. 22 cases doesn't warrant shutting down an entire industry.

I'm thinking that's not how it went. I doesnt sound like they shut down AFTER learning that there were only 22 cases. They shut down because the overall cases were spiking and Brixt and the CDC and such were saying that bars were hotspots.

So either Nashville is an outlier, or there is a problem with the data.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So you think it's okay to take away people's jobs and livelyhood because it might have spread more if they were opened?

Funny they announced today they're lifting restrictions on nursing homes....

BTW, when Cooper shut down the bars for the 2nd time, he referenced the reasoning as being a high number of cases through contact tracing... So you're saying, he was being honest, not lying?

To the first part... OF COURSE it's ok to "take away people's jobs and livelihood"... to SAVE LIVES. I mean, it would have been even better if the government had the social assistance programs in place so that jobs and livelihoods were not even affected by the shutdown. So go ahead and blame the government for that if you want, I will not remotely object. But that's a different argument.

As to the last part... I don't know Cooper's statement or the context. Are bars shut down now? No, they are not. Have there been many documented cases of bar-sources for Covid --- in the broader picture, yes there have been. Somehow those statistics aren't showing it for Nashville, but if it happens in Texas or California, it magically somehow can't happen in Nashville?

Anyway, absolutely NONE of this argues against the shut-downs - original, subsequent, or forthcoming. All it says that the shut-downs were incompletely and incompetently applied in some cases. All I'm hearing you say is that there should have been MORE of them.

 

[Armourboy]

I'm thinking that's not how it went. I doesnt sound like they shut down AFTER learning that there were only 22 cases. They shut down because the overall cases were spiking and Brixt and the CDC and such were saying that bars were hotspots.

So either Nashville is an outlier, or there is a problem with the data.

I still question how the heck you look at the data though and decide you need to keep bars closed/restricted and don't do a thing with Construction sites.

Despite the Fox17 story turning up to be garbage the one remaining question is how does that happen?

I get prevention based on other areas, but when you have a number that large slapping you in the face someone should be questioning how you ignore it.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I still question how the heck you look at the data though and decide you need to keep bars closed/restricted and don't do a thing with Construction sites.

Despite the Fox17 story turning up to be garbage the one remaining question is how does that happen?

I get prevention based on other areas, but when you have a number that large slapping you in the face someone should be questioning how you ignore it.

Absolutely. That number should totally result in the story being framed as a public demand to do something about the construction sites based on the data. And if any digging showed that there was any corruption involved in them being let off the hook, that's another story. And then you can use the bars as the demonstration of success to hold up against it.

Of course, then some people would probably have just cried instead about the numbers of construction workers whose jobs and livelihoods were unfairly taken away, right? That seems to be how it goes.

 

[Armourboy]

Absolutely. That number should totally result in the story being framed as a public demand to do something about the construction sites based on the data. And if any digging showed that there was any corruption involved in them being let off the hook, that's another story. And then you can use the bars as the demonstration of success to hold up against it.

Of course, then some people would probably have just cried instead about the numbers of construction workers whose jobs and livelihoods were unfairly taken away, right? That seems to be how it goes.

The economic part of it isn't something you can't just toss away. People don't just die from Covid and a loss in income can decrease overall mental and physical health.

I don't think they should have just stepped in and shut it down, but something could have been done in the way of restricting it so you don't have tons of people in the same place at once. Rarely do construction companies and sub contractors just have one place they can work.

 

[triggrman]

In St Charles right now, passed the casino on the way here it looked packed, or the parking lot did

 

[triggrman]

Might investigate after the baseball games

 

[adsfan]

Semi-related, got my flu shot yesterday. Of course I stay home for most part. Maybe out shopping for food 2 hours out of the week and the occasional Drs appt.

Good for you!

I thought you were going out, doing your laundry, jumping in a tanning bed and having a few beers. (Jersey Shore)


On a serious note, Johns Hopkins University says that we have passed 200, 000 COVID-19 deaths as of 9/19/2020.

 

[101st_fan]

Good for you!

I thought you were going out, doing your laundry, jumping in a tanning bed and having a few beers. (Jersey Shore)


On a serious note, Johns Hopkins University says that we have passed 200, 000 COVID-19 deaths as of 9/19/2020.

CDC data puts P&I deaths over 200k as of week 34 ... so three weeks ago. Perspective and an insight into how media reporting highlights one illness while completely ignoring another to create a narrative.

 

[PredsV82]

CDC data puts P&I deaths over 200k as of week 34 ... so three weeks ago. Perspective and an insight into how media reporting highlights one illness while completely ignoring another to create a narrative.

Is P&I pneumonia and Influenza? If so I wonder how much overlap there is with COVID since a lot of COVID patients are diagnosed with pneumonia

And if you are trying to say that COVID is all a media driven narrative I'll say that's the most ridiculous hot take I've heard since the claim was made that Spaling was a top 6 forward

 

[bdub24]

And lets not look too far into WHEN those P&I numbers start...sep 2019 or something? Its a trash take whose purpose is ... well, I dont actually know what the point is.

 

[Adz]

CDC data puts P&I deaths over 200k as of week 34 ... so three weeks ago. Perspective and an insight into how media reporting highlights one illness while completely ignoring another to create a narrative.

I can't find your particular numbers so I'd love a link--everything I see is on the CDC spreadsheets is from years prior to this one except an estimate of 24 - 62K influenza deaths between 10/1/19 and 4/4/2020 and a 2/1/20 - 9/12/20 spreadsheet that shows flu/pneumonia numbers but they include Covid deaths in there. You can extrapolate pneumonia to come up with a number around 83,000 but influenza doesn't offer this option and says 6690 including the possibility of having the other diseases, a number I find suspiciously low. Certainly their numbers aren't over Covid looking at this data, however. I would have liked more information.

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

But even with those numbers, aren't those two different diseases vs one? To me that's creating just as much of a narrative, but I would also say that all the data is necessary and should be provided.

The media has absolutely been telling you to be concerned about the flu and pneumonia for YEARS. It's not like no one tells you ad nauseum to get a flu or a pneumonia shot. We start hearing flu PSA's, doctor encouragement, and yes, media coverage (a health department rep on the local news, ex) of the flu every August. Stores with pharmacies start giving discounts for flu shots, free flu shots with purchase, etc. etc. Insurance plans send emails (I got one today!) urging you to get one "early". Medicare recipients start getting fliers in late July/early August. It's similar but year round for notices to the elderly regarding pneumonia shots. What is that if not highlighting the danger of them while also communicating the ability to prevent the diseases? Media is talking about Covid more because this is dangerous and deadly and NOVEL. There's no vaccine for Covid yet and that fact has changed our lives. Until it's not a story, they're all going to report it (with their own biases, of course).

In any event, they're all deaths that in some cases might have been avoided with certain precautions. They're all bad things to get, particularly for the elderly and various risk groups.

 

[PredsV82]

And lets not look too far into WHEN those P&I numbers start...sep 2019 or something? Its a trash take whose purpose is ... well, I dont actually know what the point is.

It may or may not be a trash take but presented without context and additional information its meaningless.

101 needs to provide the following for anyone to judge the significance of the number he presented:

1. What is the timeframe for those numbers? If " week 34" means from the beginning of the year, that helps.

2. How does that number compare to the same timeframe in previous years?

3. Does that number include COVID pneumonia deaths?

Answer those questions and we can have a discussion