COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[Porter Stoutheart]

One more point about the return of sports- so because a few athletes have tested positive, many are clamoring for everything to be shut down- "crazy to risk these athletes lives for a sport", etc.

Ok- so lets say the NHL tomorrow decides to cancel everything for the year because of the Matthews test (and a few others)

So what are these athletes going to do if that happens? Lock themselves in their house indefinitely? Because if not- if they are going to do what the rest of the world is doing- going to stores, restaurants, etc- then they have just as much of a chance of getting the virus doing that as they do in a training camp- and without 24/7 of the best medical care in the world.

The fact of the matter is that for most athletes, especially college ones- they are much better off in team training camps than not.

I dunno, it feels to me like you're still living in April? In case you haven't noticed, almost "everything" is opened back up now. Nobody is locked in their house "indefinitely", nor have they ever been at any point during this. People are already going to restaurants and stores. So some of the rhetoric is 2 months out of date.

It's really only the specific case of major league sports like NHL hockey that we're left to argue about, isn't it? The NHL has already stated they have nothing to gain financially by finishing the season. So they're really doing this whole thing just for "PR value". Is that worth pulling the players together and taking on responsibility and liability for their health? Without the NHL, players could still go off on their own and do whatever they want with their money and ability to rent private ice and training. Nothing stops them from doing that if the NHL cancelled its plans. So we're still down to asking them to push through with this because selfishly we want our own favorite entertainment product back. There's no other intrinsic value in having this all take place.

There's still another month before official camps were supposed to open anyway. But as the case numbers grow, the players themselves should ultimately decide what they want to do, not the NHL or member teams. I'm fine with the tournament proceeding as long as it's made explicitly clear to every single player that they are 100% supported if they would rather choose not to participate, no consequences. Most players would probably opt to play. But they have another month to watch how the situation evolves and at least in the current environment, they should be free to decide for themselves on an individual-by-individual basis.

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[bdub24]

You don’t have the right to tell me I have to wear a mask-my rights!

also- you tell those NHL players that we want our hockey and they just need to take on the risk. They have no rights!

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

You don’t have the right to tell me I have to wear a mask-my rights!

also- you tell those NHL players that we want our hockey and they just need to take on the risk. They have no rights!

Dammit, man, you are spoiling my setup there.

 

[Armourboy]

Read an article today where an infectious disease specialist out of Italy believes the virus has begun to mutate down to a less deadly form. He said it was way to early to actually be able to prove, but he is basing it on what he has seen in the last month.

According to him patients in their 80's-90's that would often die within a couple of days, now can breath on their own without ever needing a ventilator. Many of the rest that needed hospital care are no longer needing it.

Granted in the same article they had an English scientist who said he was completely wrong and the virus wouldn't mutate down that quickly.

I heard this morning that even here the overall case numbers are climbing, but apparently the death rate is coming down. So who knows but it's at least something to keep an eye on.

 

[bdub24]

Read an article today where an infectious disease specialist out of Italy believes the virus has begun to mutate down to a less deadly form. He said it was way to early to actually be able to prove, but he is basing it on what he has seen in the last month.

According to him patients in their 80's-90's that would often die within a couple of days, now can breath on their own without ever needing a ventilator. Many of the rest that needed hospital care are no longer needing it.

Granted in the same article they had an English scientist who said he was completely wrong and the virus wouldn't mutate down that quickly.

I heard this morning that even here the overall case numbers are climbing, but apparently the death rate is coming down. So who knows but it's at least something to keep an eye on.

Will be great if this is true! Fingers crossed for this.

 

[Armourboy]

Will be great if this is true! Fingers crossed for this.

Generally speaking most viruses do that over time. I guess the argument is whether it would do it that quickly. I'm always suspect anytime a scientist says " that can't happen ".

Could just be that the weakest of the population in Italy is already dead so what is left are able to fight it better. But if they are seeing a change across all groups then that may indeed be a positive sign.

 

[Adz]

Viruses are biological and biological things don't always follow hard and fast rules. It is also possible that the virus was passing through earlier than people knew and deaths weren't properly attributed to it--so any subsequent mutations would seem to happen earlier than seems normal. That's just a guess, of course.

 

[glenngineer]

Healing and death rates are great to talk about but what's missed in most of these conversations is healing but having long term effects from it. Just because you live, doesn't mean it's not going to hurt you down the line. If people only have 70% lung capacity after contracting the virus, I would think that would be a pretty big risk for any professional athlete to take on, especially hockey players. So while death tolls may be coming down, I want to see what the long term effects are before putting these guys at risk. To me, it's just not worth it. I love the game but I value the players' health and lives more than I do my wants.

 

[bdub24]

Healing and death rates are great to talk about but what's missed in most of these conversations is healing but having long term effects from it. Just because you live, doesn't mean it's not going to hurt you down the line. If people only have 70% lung capacity after contracting the virus, I would think that would be a pretty big risk for any professional athlete to take on, especially hockey players. So while death tolls may be coming down, I want to see what the long term effects are before putting these guys at risk. To me, it's just not worth it. I love the game but I value the players' health and lives more than I do my wants.

I dont know if there are formal studies yet, but there have been anecdotes about lung capacity, kidney damage, brain damage(!). Any one of those things and its game over for a pro athlete. And I’d have to think players with a history of concussion and the unknown CTE issues any further potential brain trauma would be a disaster.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Healing and death rates are great to talk about but what's missed in most of these conversations is healing but having long term effects from it. Just because you live, doesn't mean it's not going to hurt you down the line. If people only have 70% lung capacity after contracting the virus, I would think that would be a pretty big risk for any professional athlete to take on, especially hockey players. So while death tolls may be coming down, I want to see what the long term effects are before putting these guys at risk. To me, it's just not worth it. I love the game but I value the players' health and lives more than I do my wants.

I spoke to my dad yesterday for Father's Day, he's an EKG tech at a hospital in Clearwater and he was talking about just this thing. Said that while "only" 9 patients have died at his hospital, surviving is no walk in the park and many patients (including young and otherwise healthy) are facing long-term effects after recovery.

Which is why the notion of only needing to wear a mask and limit contact if you live with someone at risk is silly.

Re-opening efforts are fine, but it has to be with businesses and individuals exercising caution, limiting exposure, wear protective items, wash hands and surfaces frequently, etc. Don't try to be a tough guy and prove a point. You can help the economy recover while also helping to eliminate the spread of this thing.

 

[Armourboy]

Well we had our first known case at work yesterday, luckily it was someone in the office who has very little interaction with anyone but a couple of people.

Pretty surprising considering we never shut down during any of this.

 

[PredsV82]

After having 1 to 3 cases a week for the last month, my county had 4 cases just over the weekend. Just gotta keep a wary eye on things.

As for the mutations into a weaker strain, I wouldnt bank on that yet. There have actually been multiple strains with slightly different genetics but spreading a theory like that without proof is playing with fire.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

2.5% out of 17,000 that protested in massachusetts have tested positive. 425 people.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I wonder if they are looking at the early positives from the NHL? There were multiple players on Ottawa and Colorado who had back in March, right? That should be a decent baseline for assessing recovery and at least damage over the term of a few months.

It sounds like the PA is starting to get a little more restless. But they should have some data to go on already.

 

[PredsV82]

2.5% out of 17,000 that protested in massachusetts have tested positive. 425 people.

Does that mean they have tested 17000 protesters thus far? Or is it known that the number of protestors was 17k and 425 people who have tested positive have said they were at the protests?

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Does that mean they have tested 17000 protesters thus far? Or is it known that the number of protestors was 17k and 425 people who have tested positive have said they were at the protests?

Over 17,000 Protesters Got Coronavirus Tests: Here's What We've Learned

 

[czechczech]

Not a great day in TN. Over 14% Positive yesterday (750 new cases for 5310 new tests). I'm not sure "% Positive" is an exact number because of a disconnect between test date and report date; still, after trending up to
7-8% in the last week, this can't be good.

 

[Legionnaire11]

According to the state task force, the 14 day average is over 600 new cases right now, compared to around 400 new cases in the previous 14 day period.

They say the primary reason is the re-opening (no mention of protests) and that while previously most cases could be traced back to contact with an active case such as clusters in a workplace, over 50% of new cases now were contracted from unknown sources. In other words, most likely just passing by others in public places.

Wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands, limit your trips outside the home and work, both in frequency and duration.

 

[Armourboy]

Bedford County had a huge typo yesterday. I checked this morning and it said 4600 cases, which is pretty dang high for a county of 50k people. Its currently at 514....oops.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says - CNN

Seems like a misleading title considering the study says that they haven't seen an increase in the area of protests because more people are staying home to avoid the large gatherings.

it seems like another point and case of not really knowing what's going on and trying to be the first to have "breaking" news.

i still say the large gatherings and protests are what we would see if fans were back at sporting events except it would be even worst.

states started opening back up the last week of April or first week of May. this "second" wave or resurgence has began in the past 2 weeks. George Floyd was murdered on may 25. the protests started within days after.

i could be completely wrong on this subject.

 

[Armourboy]

Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says - CNN

Seems like a misleading title considering the study says that they haven't seen an increase in the area of protests because more people are staying home to avoid the large gatherings.

it seems like another point and case of not really knowing what's going on and trying to be the first to have "breaking" news.

i still say the large gatherings and protests are what we would see if fans were back at sporting events except it would be even worst.

states started opening back up the last week of April or first week of May. this "second" wave or resurgence has began in the past 2 weeks. George Floyd was murdered on may 25. the protests started within days after.

i could be completely wrong on this subject.

Well and my question is if the protests really aren't leading to an increase then what argument is there against people not being to attend the fireworks and other large gatherings that are also outdoors.

Seems to be some hypocrisy going on there.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says - CNN

Seems like a misleading title considering the study says that they haven't seen an increase in the area of protests because more people are staying home to avoid the large gatherings.

it seems like another point and case of not really knowing what's going on and trying to be the first to have "breaking" news.

i still say the large gatherings and protests are what we would see if fans were back at sporting events except it would be even worst.

states started opening back up the last week of April or first week of May. this "second" wave or resurgence has began in the past 2 weeks. George Floyd was murdered on may 25. the protests started within days after.

i could be completely wrong on this subject.

It would only make sense that they are a part of it. Nobody can possibly have any truly conclusive data about that, however. But common sense says the large gatherings have to be included in the tally.

What is their portion of the contribution, that's another question. As has been pointed out, as many people go through a single big Walmart superstore in a day as attend a typical protest march. So it's possible that the protests are a relatively small component of the overall impact, and the bigger components are due to the general re-opening and people simply not caring about preventative measures anymore. There are a lot of factors in play, clearly. And it's entirely fair to include the protests in the discussion. Just not to try to blame them exclusively either. There's a whole sh!tstorm of contributing factors right now, unfortunately.

 

[Armourboy]

It would only make sense that they are a part of it. Nobody can possibly have any truly conclusive data about that, however. But common sense says the large gatherings have to be included in the tally.

What is their portion of the contribution, that's another question. As has been pointed out, as many people go through a single big Walmart superstore in a day as attend a typical protest march. So it's possible that the protests are a relatively small component of the overall impact, and the bigger components are due to the general re-opening and people simply not caring about preventative measures anymore. There are a lot of factors in play, clearly. And it's entirely fair to include the protests in the discussion. Just not to try to blame them exclusively either. There's a whole sh!tstorm of contributing factors right now, unfortunately.

Well they seem to be blaming it mostly on Memorial Day weekend. I have a hard time believing that it had an impact but the protests haven't. Just doesn't add up.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

It would only make sense that they are a part of it. Nobody can possibly have any truly conclusive data about that, however. But common sense says the large gatherings have to be included in the tally.

What is their portion of the contribution, that's another question. As has been pointed out, as many people go through a single big Walmart superstore in a day as attend a typical protest march. So it's possible that the protests are a relatively small component of the overall impact, and the bigger components are due to the general re-opening and people simply not caring about preventative measures anymore. There are a lot of factors in play, clearly. And it's entirely fair to include the protests in the discussion. Just not to try to blame them exclusively either. There's a whole sh!tstorm of contributing factors right now, unfortunately.

i can get down with this.

i will just say the states started opening back up the last week of April and first of may. everything was fine until the month of June. And we know the people that don't care about masks and social distancing have been doing that since day 1. Sure people have gotten more relaxed as time has went on with social distancing but i don't see how it could lead to the massive increase we have seen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

i can get down with this.

i will just say the states started opening back up the last week of April and first of may. everything was fine until the month of June. And we know the people that don't care about masks and social distancing have been doing that since day 1. Sure people have gotten more relaxed as time has went on with social distancing but i don't see how it could lead to the massive increase we have seen.

I haven't been at a protest. So everything I observe is just anecdotal at second-hand. But I've seen pictures. I have been in a Walmart. And Walmart is just one business. (Which was open before too of course). But there are thousands of other businesses. I have also seen pictures from beaches. And even now from political rallies for that matter.

I bet they do have models that try to take into account the social interactions and potential transmission vectoring and all that. Somebody should have a Deep Thought somewhere with a better handle on the scenarios, even if we don't have definitive publishable measured observational data.

If I was just ballparking it off the top of my head in a 5-second thought posted to an internet hockey message board... I would be surprised if the protests add up to more than 10-20% of candidate transmission vectors. It wouldn't surprise me if it was lower than that, though. It would surprise me a lot if it was much higher. That's not to say it should be dismissed as a contributing component. Surely it is one. But on the scale of the whole population of socially interacting people in all venues... it's probably a much smaller factor than we might think, if we were able to do the math.

This is just me spitballing though, not trying to convince anybody of anything at all.