COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

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bdub24

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It may or may not be a trash take but presented without context and additional information its meaningless.

101 needs to provide the following for anyone to judge the significance of the number he presented:

1. What is the timeframe for those numbers? If " week 34" means from the beginning of the year, that helps.

2. How does that number compare to the same timeframe in previous years?

3. Does that number include COVID pneumonia deaths?

Answer those questions and we can have a discussion
When this thing was just getting fired up we were comparing it to flu... at some point it became flu and pneumonia....as it goes longer, I’m sure there are other diseases, viruses and bacterial infections that will need to get combined to keep a comparative mortality narrative going.
 

PredsV82

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When this thing was just getting fired up we were comparing it to flu... at some point it became flu and pneumonia....as it goes longer, I’m sure there are other diseases, viruses and bacterial infections that will need to get combined to keep a comparative mortality narrative going.

The problem with combining pneumonia with flu is that not all pneumonias are contracted as a result of exposure to another infected person. Many pneumonias(especially FATAL pneumonias) occur due to a person being debilitated and aspirating their own food or secretions. These people would have died even with isolation/social distancing/masks etc.
 
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Bringer of Jollity

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One of the things I've shifted on as a result of all this is the way in which we casually handwave 60k-70k flu deaths away yearly. I guess when you consider our population size it's a really small %, but still seems a rather unacceptably high number we could do more to lessen.
 

Armourboy

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One of the things I've shifted on as a result of all this is the way in which we casually handwave 60k-70k flu deaths away yearly. I guess when you consider our population size it's a really small %, but still seems a rather unacceptably high number we could do more to lessen.
Its is and 200k is a relatively small number as well. 1% of the population would be 3.3 million, so even though every death is tragic we are talking about a fraction of the overall population.

As the old saying goes though, everyone has to die from something. We can't stop every death and something is going to take out the old and infirm.
 
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Bringer of Jollity

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Its is and 200k is a relatively small number as well. 1% of the population would be 3.3 million, so even though every death is tragic we are talking about a fraction of the overall population.

As the old saying goes though, everyone has to die from something. We can't stop every death and something is going to take out the old and infirm.
While true, we could probably do more to prevent some of the old and infirm from dying from these particular bullets, even if it's inevitable another will get them. I know that would sure be my hope when I get to that age.
 

triggrman

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How many deaths could have been prevented if we would have managed the nursing homes in the north east better? I mean isn’t that still where the majority of deaths have occurred?


Also that reporter for Fox should never be published again. Shit like that is why I hate media as much as politicians.
 

PredsV82

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How many deaths could have been prevented if we would have managed the nursing homes in the north east better? I mean isn’t that still where the majority of deaths have occurred?


Also that reporter for Fox should never be published again. Shit like that is why I hate media as much as politicians.

According to CMS.DATA.gov as of 9/6/20(site wouldnt let me link but google "US nursing home deaths due to COVID " and it should be near the top)there have been a little over 54000 nursing home deaths due to COVID, nationwide.

So even if you somehow could magically eliminate ALL of them(which of course is wildly unrealistic) you're still looking at 150,000 non nursing home deaths in 6 months and that's WITH all the the shutdowns and restrictions that occurred.

And yeah the FOX story is a good example.of why you shouldnt take one report, be it in media or even scientific literature, and run with it. People did the same thing with the Stanford/Santa Clara study that made it look like a lot more asymptomatic positives were already present and it got shot down within a few days....
 
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PredsV82

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(Excess deaths, all causes, US)

Lots of busy graphs there but the point is a lot more people are dying this year than in the same time period (on average) from the last 5 years. That sifts out the "it's no worse than the flu" and "everybody has to die of something" arguments and makes a substantial case that this is a substantial event as far as Americans dying who wouldnt have otherwise died...
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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(Excess deaths, all causes, US)

Lots of busy graphs there but the point is a lot more people are dying this year than in the same time period (on average) from the last 5 years. That sifts out the "it's no worse than the flu" and "everybody has to die of something" arguments and makes a substantial case that this is a substantial event as far as Americans dying who wouldnt have otherwise died...
The January-size (or bigger) peak hits in May, repeats in August, let's hope the actual January isn't as bad as the trend here would lead one to expect... :(
 

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Again, I'd like to know how much the suicide, divorce, alcohol and drug abuse and overdose rate went up. All those rates go up with unemployment.
Very true. The combination just wears on some people. I know of 2 suicides, one definitely associated with worries over loss of work along with solitude, the other probably as it happened in May. And a good friend is struggling with increased substance abuse.
 

PredsV82

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Again, I'd like to know how much the suicide, divorce, alcohol and drug abuse and overdose rate went up. All those rates go up with unemployment.

This gets back to the theoretical argument (which obviously cant be proven) as to how much disruption to the economy would have occurred had we just "let it ride".

Anyone who thinks businesses would have just sailed along without disruption is not being logical.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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This gets back to the theoretical argument (which obviously cant be proven) as to how much disruption to the economy would have occurred had we just "let it ride".

Anyone who thinks businesses would have just sailed along without disruption is not being logical.
The irony to me is that people aren't even considering what the real solution could have been: that we just have enough of a social safety net to be able to do better on BOTH fronts: have shut-downs where needed in the interests of public health, AND be able to protect jobs and small business from the economic fallout (and associated follow-on mental health problems) of those shut-downs at the same time. There's enough money out there to do that. It's just that it's going into the wrong pockets. So we get a screwed up response on both sides. And best of all... we just fight with eachother about it.
 

Armourboy

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Very true. The combination just wears on some people. I know of 2 suicides, one definitely associated with worries over loss of work along with solitude, the other probably as it happened in May. And a good friend is struggling with increased substance abuse.
I have more friends/family that have died from suicide during this than Covid. Outside of News stories and a person or two here, I actually don't know a single person that has died from Covid personally.

It's the reason I think so many have gotten rather unconcerned with it. We are talking less than 1/10 of 1% of the overall US population has died from it, with a very large amount of those coming in large cities. Its really hard for part of the population to care about individuals they don't know. Its even easier to care less if its costing you your livelihood, home, business, etc.
 

predfan24

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Again, I'd like to know how much the suicide, divorce, alcohol and drug abuse and overdose rate went up. All those rates go up with unemployment.

It seems as if suicide data takes a long time for the CDC to tabulate and publish. The last available year is 2018.

There was this report from the CDC regarding 5,412 individuals completing a web based survey. They asked about mental health, substance abuse, and suicidal idealization. I found a couple of interesting tidbits.

Elevated levels of adverse mental health conditions, substance use, and suicidal ideation were reported by adults in the United States in June 2020. The prevalence of symptoms of anxiety disorder was approximately three times those reported in the second quarter of 2019 (25.5% versus 8.1%), and prevalence of depressive disorder was approximately four times that reported in the second quarter of 2019 (24.3% versus 6.5%) (2). However, given the methodological differences and potential unknown biases in survey designs, this analysis might not be directly comparable with data reported on anxiety and depression disorders in 2019 (2). Approximately one quarter of respondents reported symptoms of a TSRD related to the pandemic, and approximately one in 10 reported that they started or increased substance use because of COVID-19. Suicidal ideation was also elevated; approximately twice as many respondents reported serious consideration of suicide in the previous 30 days than did adults in the United States in 2018, referring to the previous 12 months (10.7% versus 4.3%) (6).



"The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been associated with mental health challenges related to the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease and to mitigation activities, including the impact of physical distancing and stay-at-home orders."

Sorry about the obnoxiously large font and boldness. It pastes that way from the website I'm taking it from.

It's clear that mental health, substance abuse, and suicidal idealization have increased dramatically during this period. However, I think it is important they they emphasize that not only is the physical distancing and stay at home orders influencing this rise, but also due to the devastation to mortality and the anxiety that the virus is causing. Who knows what would have happened if the government would have taken a more hands off approach. We probably will never know, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation During the ...
 

predfan24

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I have more friends/family that have died from suicide during this than Covid. Outside of News stories and a person or two here, I actually don't know a single person that has died from Covid personally.

It's the reason I think so many have gotten rather unconcerned with it. We are talking less than 1/10 of 1% of the overall US population has died from it, with a very large amount of those coming in large cities. Its really hard for part of the population to care about individuals they don't know. Its even easier to care less if its costing you your livelihood, home, business, etc.

First, I'm sorry about your family/friends. I've seen a few families torn apart by suicide in my short time here on earth. It's terrible. I do want to point out there are likely more families that know of COVID19 deaths than suicide deaths this year. In 2017, there were 47,173 suicides. So far, there is over 200K recorded COVID19 deaths, and it is likely that is a slight under count. We expect suicides to go up this year, but will it be doubled, tripled, quadrupled??? Judging by all cause mortality so far this year....likely not. This is why it's important we judge by data and not only anecdotes.

I'm sure you weren't trying to be dishonest, but the statement " We are talking less than 1/10 of 1% of the overall US population has died from it" is being really dishonest. In 2017, the leading cause of death was heart disease at 647,457 deaths. This was 0.0001 of the population in 2017. Does that mean it's not a big deal and we shouldn't try to combat that?

"Its really hard for part of the population to care about individuals they don't know. Its even easier to care less if its costing you your livelihood, home, business, etc"

I can't help but think this a big problem in the U.S. Are we too individualistic? I agree with you about the livelihood aspect. I don't want someone to live under a bridge so I can live. However, there certainly has to be a middle ground we can reach to reasonably protect people. Never has there been a time in my life that I can remember where it's been so easy to help others by doing so little, and a sizable chunk of our population can't be bothered with it.
 
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There's no doubt in my mind that we'll see a big rise that will get bigger as people find out their jobs are not going to return. After 6 months of robbing your savings and looking at the very real possibility that you won't get that back just checking out for good and letting others deal with the fallout may seem like the only way out.

My tally is 2 who have died from covid, 3 others who had the disease but survived, and 2 suicides since May.
 
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Armourboy

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First, I'm sorry about your family/friends. I've seen a few families torn apart by suicide in my short time here on earth. It's terrible. I do want to point out there are likely more families that know of COVID19 deaths than suicide deaths this year. In 2017, there were 47,173 suicides. So far, there is over 200K recorded COVID19 deaths, and it is likely that is a slight under count. We expect suicides to go up this year, but will it be doubled, tripled, quadrupled??? Judging by all cause mortality so far this year....likely not. This is why it's important we judge by data and not only anecdotes.

I'm sure you weren't trying to be dishonest, but the statement " We are talking less than 1/10 of 1% of the overall US population has died from it" is being really dishonest. In 2017, the leading cause of death was heart disease at 647,457 deaths. This was 0.0001 of the population in 2017. Does that mean it's not a big deal and we shouldn't try to combat that?

"Its really hard for part of the population to care about individuals they don't know. Its even easier to care less if its costing you your livelihood, home, business, etc"

I can't help but think this a big problem in the U.S. Are we too individualistic? I agree with you about the livelihood aspect. I don't want someone to live under a bridge so I can live. However, there certainly has to be a middle ground we can reach to reasonably protect people. Never has there been a time in my life that I can remember where it's been so easy to help others by doing so little, and a sizable chunk of our population can't be bothered with it.
It's not dishonest, those are factual numbers, you can do the math just as easily as I can.

I mean yeah we should still work on heart disease, but in the meantime are we shutting anything down til it happens? We have 37,000 people a year dying in auto accidents, we aren't pulling cars off the road.

The fact remains that as big as 200k people sounds it is a tiny fraction of the US population. If we had 1 million die from it it would still be a tiny fraction.

I've said all along that people will need to figure out where that attrition rate is and what is acceptable as a whole. We are going to lose people, even with a vaccine we are going to lose people. We apparently have discovered that 20-30,000 people a year dying from flu is no big deal, we don't even batt an eye at it. Looking at past pandemics we are lucky it's only been 200k so far.
 

PredsV82

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I'll keep saying this until the point sinks in. Those who are talking about the consequences that we have suffered need to be sure in their own heads that they arent thinking that if there had not been any shutdown that the only thing that would have happened were more COVID deaths. The truth is the economic impact would still have been substantial and there likely wouldnt have been any subsidized unemployment, PPP, etc

Plenty of people would have still faced ruin, but in a much more haphazard way and with almost certainly less government support
 
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Armourboy

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I'll keep saying this until the point sinks in. Those who are talking about the consequences that we have suffered need to be sure in their own heads that they arent thinking that if there had not been any shutdown that the only thing that would have happened were more COVID deaths. The truth is the economic impact would still have been substantial and there likely wouldnt have been any subsidized unemployment, PPP, etc

Plenty of people would have still faced ruin, but in a much more haphazard way and with almost certainly less government support
No but businesses would have had the ability to try and figure out a way to make it work for them whether that be outdoor seating or reduced capacity. The problem with what the government has done in many cases is that they have pulled all creativity out the situation. Stuff like this generally breeds invention so it may not have been nearly as bad as you imagine.

Also as far as business support just because they chose not to shut things down doesn't mean support had to be pulled either. One did not require the other.
 
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PredsV82

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No but businesses would have had the ability to try and figure out a way to make it work for them whether that be outdoor seating or reduced capacity. The problem with what the government has done in many cases is that they have pulled all creativity out the situation. Stuff like this generally breeds invention so it may not have been nearly as bad as you imagine.

Also as far as business support just because they chose not to shut things down doesn't mean support had to be pulled either. One did not require the other.

Well, at most it delayed some of the creativity. Just about every restaurant figured out how to do carryout and all the creative solutions are now being implemented in the partial opening.

And I know there might have been government support but it would have been harder to justify and administer if places were allowed to stay open.
 

PredsV82

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After the first month the only people that should been forced home are the higher risk groups.
For most people this virus is not deadly

Define "higher risk groups" and how you would enforce this. Plus you act like everyone lives alone. If one low risk family member brings it to a house where someone high risk lives, it doesnt matter that the high risk family member stayed home, they still get it.
 
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bdub24

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Just found out that a colleague had COVID-19 in March. She is recovered, but finds her stamina is not what it was, gets exhausted at the end of the day, and at times feels ’fuzzy’/has difficulty connecting thoughts. Of course no one can tell her if this is just her life now or will she fully recover.
 
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