COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[triggrman]

Define "higher risk groups" and how you would enforce this. Plus you act like everyone lives alone. If one low risk family member brings it to a house where someone high risk lives, it doesnt matter that the high risk family member stayed home, they still get it.

I stay away from my dad after ball tournaments because he’s high risk. It’s responsible like wearing a mask. People that live with someone that is in the high risk groups need to be treated like they are also high risk.
This is a better option than shutting down everything

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I stay away from my dad after ball tournaments because he’s high risk. It’s responsible like wearing a mask. People that live with someone that is in the high risk groups need to be treated like they are also high risk.
This is a better option than shutting down everything

And you stay away for 14 days, good. But then do you stay away from everybody else? Because Random Healthy Joe you interact with doesn't know you were just at a ball tournament, and doesn't therefore know to stay away from his own high-risk dad. Etc, etc. So you basically just need to isolate ALL high risk groups ALL the time. Maybe that's a solution, but that's not what anybody, including you, is accomplishing right now.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

And you stay away for 14 days, good. But then do you stay away from everybody else? Because Random Healthy Joe you interact with doesn't know you were just at a ball tournament, and doesn't therefore know to stay away from his own high-risk dad. Etc, etc. So you basically just need to isolate ALL high risk groups ALL the time. Maybe that's a solution, but that's not what anybody, including you, is accomplishing right now.

I wonder about the legality/constitutionality of requiring only certain sub-groups to be isolated, especially when you start talking about groups like the elderly (an obvious "high-risk" group), which are a protected class. Additionally, "high-risk" groups, like the elderly, are served by a significant number of people outside of that group (and this is not accounting for family members, etc...). The more lax restrictions for everyone else are just going to increase the exposure for that intermediary group, who will then infect the at-risk population anyway.

 

[triggrman]

And you stay away for 14 days, good. But then do you stay away from everybody else? Because Random Healthy Joe you interact with doesn't know you were just at a ball tournament, and doesn't therefore know to stay away from his own high-risk dad. Etc, etc. So you basically just need to isolate ALL high risk groups ALL the time. Maybe that's a solution, but that's not what anybody, including you, is accomplishing right now.

Not in much close contact with anyone else, my baseball family and my close family is it.
I wear a mask everywhere in public

 

[PredsV82]

I stay away from my dad after ball tournaments because he’s high risk. It’s responsible like wearing a mask. People that live with someone that is in the high risk groups need to be treated like they are also high risk.
This is a better option than shutting down everything

I promise I'm not just trying to pick on you Trigg, but it's obvious you havent thought about just how many people in the US are actually "high risk". You're obviously a healthy guy and have healthy kids. But a lot of households have at least one family member with chronic respiratory disease(asthma, COPD, etc), diabetes, heart disease, obesity, a history of cancer, or some other chronic medical condition that puts them at risk. It's literally impossible to isolate every family that has someone at risk.

What I will concede is that enough of the country has been at least partially open for long enough to generate some good, objective data about what kinds of activities are associated with significant disease spread, and decisions on restrictions going forward should be data driven, not just empirical. The caveat being that the data needs to be accurate.

 

[FossilFndr]

Rt COVID-19

Lowest I've seen Tennessee

 

[PredsV82]

Rt COVID-19

Lowest I've seen Tennessee

View attachment 368537

That's excellent news. Good to see KY in the green too

 

[Armourboy]

Well, at most it delayed some of the creativity. Just about every restaurant figured out how to do carryout and all the creative solutions are now being implemented in the partial opening.

And I know there might have been government support but it would have been harder to justify and administer if places were allowed to stay open.

Sure but it could have been done much earlier and then any support could have been much more pin pointed for those that really needed it.

My company got some of that money and never shut down, in fact got busier and its owned by two major investment companies so you know it wasn't the only one they own that got it.

 

[triggrman]

I promise I'm not just trying to pick on you Trigg, but it's obvious you havent thought about just how many people in the US are actually "high risk". You're obviously a healthy guy and have healthy kids. But a lot of households have at least one family member with chronic respiratory disease(asthma, COPD, etc), diabetes, heart disease, obesity, a history of cancer, or some other chronic medical condition that puts them at risk. It's literally impossible to isolate every family that has someone at risk.

What I will concede is that enough of the country has been at least partially open for long enough to generate some good, objective data about what kinds of activities are associated with significant disease spread, and decisions on restrictions going forward should be data driven, not just empirical. The caveat being that the data needs to be accurate.

And you're likely right, I have no idea, but I think isolating the higher risk groups is just as easy as isolating the entire "nonessential workforce".

 

[czechczech]

According to the CDC, 45% of US Adults are at increased risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. So we lock up 45% of the US Adults to save 55% of the US Adults ! Not sure the economy will work that way either!

We only move forward as a country if we reduce the level of virus. And that will take some leadership(by the Administration and Congress!) and cooperation by a majority of the American people (not 51%!). And a vaccine!

FWIW - My company sent me home in March 2020. Last month, they told us to plan on being home through April 2020. They kept everyone "whole" for six months, but in September they asked for everyone to consider "20% unpaid leave" . Easy for me; particularly, because they continue to emphasize personnel safety and health and long term business viability.

Population-Based Estimates of Chronic Conditions Affecting Risk for Complications from Coronavirus Disease, United States

 

[Armourboy]

I realize that it's the CDC, but I'll be real honest I think that " increased risk " list is kind of bogus. I'm not sure bogus is really the right word but it's about like chunking a commercial fishing net in a pond, you are bound to catch something.

Truth is if hypertension and diabetes were that enhanced of a risk, that death toll and hospitalizations list would be a heck of a lot bigger than it has been.

The others listed I'll buy because they put you on the cliff to begin with for the most part.

But in the US if you are over 30 you probably have high blood pressure and if you don't its probably because you just don't know it.

 

[Armourboy]

So something that has apparently come out of that Fox news story, Fox is now saying the Mayors office has since contacted them to let them know that the 1251 cases from construction was a typo, it was apparently only 251.

So now I'm wondering did they report 1000 cases that didn't even exist. Also there apparently was an article in the Tennessean about there being 14000 cases that were still being listed as active when they weren't.

You know we keep saying to follow the numbers, but I'm not even sure the people in charge of them are even following them correctly.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So something that has apparently come out of that Fox news story, Fox is now saying the Mayors office has since contacted them to let them know that the 1251 cases from construction was a typo, it was apparently only 251.

So now I'm wondering did they report 1000 cases that didn't even exist. Also there apparently was an article in the Tennessean about there being 14000 cases that were still being listed as active when they weren't.

You know we keep saying to follow the numbers, but I'm not even sure the people in charge of them are even following them correctly.

Well, incompetence at the local level is... disappointing, and perhaps not entirely unsurprising. But I still don't think that should distract from the overall global and scientific perspective on this.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, incompetence at the local level is... disappointing, and perhaps not entirely unsurprising. But I still don't think that should distract from the overall global and scientific perspective on this.

Although, if I was going to subscribe to any conspiracy theories...

Well... how very convenient that construction sites may have avoided some initial shut-down protocols, and how very convenient that if a huge number of cases were reported it turned out that they were all just a "typo".

 

[triggrman]

According to the CDC, 45% of US Adults are at increased risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. So we lock up 45% of the US Adults to save 55% of the US Adults ! Not sure the economy will work that way either!

We only move forward as a country if we reduce the level of virus. And that will take some leadership(by the Administration and Congress!) and cooperation by a majority of the American people (not 51%!). And a vaccine!

FWIW - My company sent me home in March 2020. Last month, they told us to plan on being home through April 2020. They kept everyone "whole" for six months, but in September they asked for everyone to consider "20% unpaid leave" . Easy for me; particularly, because they continue to emphasize personnel safety and health and long term business viability.

Population-Based Estimates of Chronic Conditions Affecting Risk for Complications from Coronavirus Disease, United States

if this is true, why is the average age fatalities over 75?

 

[PredsV82]

if this is true, why is the average age fatalities over 75?

Well, you need to look at the median, not the average, but it's true that half the fatalities are over 75. But think about how many people you know in their late 70s or early 80s who are still vibrant and productive members of society. I know dozens or more. I imagine Captain Nerdo isnt ready to croak just for the sake of the economy. Not at all fair or reasonable to lump their deaths in with people who are gorked out in nursing homes.

In addition that leaves 100k( and rising) dead below 75.


I get where you are coming from Trigg but it serves no purpose to talk about what should or could have been done in March. Now, we need to make data driven decisions to maximize the recovery while minimizing loss of life.

And pray, really sincerely, for an effective vaccine.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, you need to look at the median, not the average, but it's true that half the fatalities are over 75. But think about how many people you know in their late 70s or early 80s who are still vibrant and productive members of society. I know dozens or more. I imagine Captain Nerdo isnt ready to croak just for the sake of the economy. Not at all fair or reasonable to lump their deaths in with people who are gorked out in nursing homes.

In addition that leaves 100k( and rising) dead below 75.


I get where you are coming from Trigg but it serves no purpose to talk about what should or could have been done in March. Now, we need to make data driven decisions to maximize the recovery while minimizing loss of life.

And pray, really sincerely, for an effective vaccine.

Also... March.. honestly there was no data... no trustworthy data anyway... on what could have or should have been done. It's all hindsight. For all we knew back then, Covid was going to stomp us an awful lot harder than it ultimately did. There is too much hind-sighting going on. It was essential that we err edon the side of caution in the early days. No amount of hindsighting the reactions will ever account for that. But the playbook would say that's what you have to do until you got the data.

So forget about March. What we do going forward now that we have some real data is what should realistically be judged and what should be actionable.

 

[Armourboy]

Although, if I was going to subscribe to any conspiracy theories...

Well... how very convenient that construction sites may have avoided some initial shut-down protocols, and how very convenient that if a huge number of cases were reported it turned out that they were all just a "typo".

I'm not even coming from a conspiracy theory angle. If you are making typos in the thousands and making decisions off of that, well that's a big problem.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'm not even coming from a conspiracy theory angle. If you are making typos in the thousands and making decisions off of that, well that's a big problem.

*IF* there were really typos.

 

[predfan24]

It's not dishonest, those are factual numbers, you can do the math just as easily as I can.

I mean yeah we should still work on heart disease, but in the meantime are we shutting anything down til it happens? We have 37,000 people a year dying in auto accidents, we aren't pulling cars off the road.

The fact remains that as big as 200k people sounds it is a tiny fraction of the US population. If we had 1 million die from it it would still be a tiny fraction.

I've said all along that people will need to figure out where that attrition rate is and what is acceptable as a whole. We are going to lose people, even with a vaccine we are going to lose people. We apparently have discovered that 20-30,000 people a year dying from flu is no big deal, we don't even batt an eye at it. Looking at past pandemics we are lucky it's only been 200k so far.

It is dishonest in the way it's presented. That's why I brought it up as the leading cause of death in 2017, as a percentage of the entire population, and I do apologize because the actual percentage was 0.0002. That's a dishonest way for me to express the amount of heart disease deaths in 2017. If I describe any type of death per year in terms of a % of the whole population the number is going to look infinitesimal. Call the COVID death count what it is...over 200k and counting for a disease that didn't exist a year ago. One without an agreed upon treatment or vaccine.. That is not normal.

Comparing heart disease to COVID is apples and oranges. According to the CDC the health conditions that lead to a higher risk of heart disease are high blood pressure, unhealthy cholesterol levels, diabetes, and obesity. Those are lifestyle choices. I can't give you heart disease. You can't give me heart disease. As far as automobile deaths, we have a whole transportation system and laws implemented to protect driver safety. Again, another cause of death that isn't an infectious disease. Additionally, COVID is already 5x + worse than automobile accidents.

It is definitely not acceptable for the richest, and one of the most technological/scientifically advanced countries in the world to have one of the worst responses in the world. People are going to get sick and die. The great thing, and terrible, thing is we control the severity with our behavior. That doesn't mean shut everything down indefinitely . That means have some basic human decency and wear a mask when in public spaces, don't gather in large groups in risky settings, follow the freaking guidelines that were put in April, and just hold on a few more months until a vaccine is distributed. The vaccine won't get rid of COVID, but it should significantly reduce the infection rate which will lead to, hopefully, significantly less hospitalization and death. It's been very disturbing watching the lack of empathy and lack of sense of societal responsibility from a segment of the population.

 

[Armourboy]

Nm not worth it.

 

[adsfan]

That's excellent news. Good to see KY in the green too

Not so good for Wisconsin. We are back on Illinois' Do Not Visit list!

I saw the comments about the median age of death for COVID-19 being 75. Keep in mind the the average age of the US population is 38.4 years old. In 2010, it was 37. In Florida it is 42, Maine it is 45, in Utah it is 31. The last two states are the oldest and the youngest in the US.

We have one teacher death due to COVID-19 in Wisconsin already this school year. She was 43.
It was the front page story of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. I did not have time to read it.

When that average age of death gets to 65 or 60, we will have 500,000 or 600,000 dead in the US. The population in the US that is 65 or older is 15.6% as of 2017. By 2040, it is expected to grow to 21.6%. With enough deaths of the elderly, the average age of death in the US has to come down.

Edit: I found the story. She was 47 and taught German at the same high school near Green Bay for 16 years. The positivity rate in WI on 9/17/20 was 17.8%, the highest ever and over 2034 new cases in one day, also a record for Wisconsin. The Brown County (Green Bay area) positivity rate was 24.4%! Of the record cases, 443 were in the 10 - 19 age group, 574 cases in 20 - 29, the highest.

The UW football team has 42 players and staff infected with COVID-19.

 

[czechczech]

Read the CDC report - Authored by career CDC scientists, not political appointees! The report clearly says "45% of US Adults" is an estimate. Considering 35% of the population is reported to be obese, 10% of the population suffers heart disease, and 5% are cancer survivors, the estimate seems reasonable to me. And the report says these people are at-risk for complications, not that complications will develop, and not that death will occur. That's the tricky part - you need a crystal ball to positively know when looking at a group of people(by age , condition, race, gender, pre-existing condition, etc.) who will develop complications from Covid-19, who will die from Covid-19 , and who will be fine. Personally, my crystal ball is cloudy other than a very clear estimate of 400,000 deaths by January 2021.

 

[101st_fan]

And lets not look too far into WHEN those P&I numbers start...sep 2019 or something? Its a trash take whose purpose is ... well, I dont actually know what the point is.

Calendar year 2020. It's amazing what Excel does with simple math. Try it

 

[101st_fan]

Is P&I pneumonia and Influenza? If so I wonder how much overlap there is with COVID since a lot of COVID patients are diagnosed with pneumonia

And if you are trying to say that COVID is all a media driven narrative I'll say that's the most ridiculous hot take I've heard since the claim was made that Spaling was a top 6 forward

It is a narrative once it ceased having any contextualization in the media. But as the one here who is a professional at using the information environment to influence target audiences, what the hell would I know.