COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[predfan98]

This is the kind of crap you're getting your info from? Amateur statisticians making inferences from largely unsourced data instead of epidemiologists? Explains a lot actually.

Despite being immediately turned off by the heavily partisan tones to start the article I'm always willing to look at data to form my own opinion and my god is this just absolute crap.

For the first map presentd by Kyle Lamb large swaths of the country just don't even have the HSPI calculated. Unclear why that is. Also no rationale provided for how data binning for the map was decided. Presumably they were chosen based on what would best illustrate the pre-concieved notion they were trying to make. Beyond that there are numerous statistics for analyzing whether hotspots are actually significant geospatially none of which are used. These are literally all intro level tools in geospatial analysis that aren't being utilized.

The tweets by Ian Miller (whoever that is as it isn't explained) are completely unsourced so I guess I'm just supposed to take his data at face value based on nothing.

As far as the data regarding northern versus southern counties in Arizona its not shocking that the southern counties have a larger case increase given their higher population densities as its pretty well established the population density has a large affect on infection rates.

The claim that 50% of Imperial County's cases being Hispanic as being an indicator of border crossings as a cause is an absurd statement given that the county is 80% Hispanic. Shocking that cases would match the demographics of the county.

There is no explanation of why the counties with the two largest ports of entry (El Paso and San Diego) don't have the highest surges in cases. Nor does it help to explain the surges in non-border states like Florida or South Carolina.

I don't doubt that border crossings are causing coronavirus cases if they aren't being quarantined for 14 days which they absolutely should be, but there just isn't enough evidence in this article to claim that border crossings are the most serious cause of the surges in coronavirus cases.

Actually the imperial county data came from hospitals. Where the people themselves in the hospital said they had crossed from Mexico. Which had a different peak in their wave.

It wasn’t written to explain Fla... which has so many fewer deaths than NY that it isn’t funny.

You search for your own info, which as far as I can see is your unsubstantiated opinions with no data. Oh, just for your info, all the epidemiologists models have been proven wrong , and the cdc and who has changed their minds and opinions more than a hooker turning tricks.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Actually the imperial county data came from hospitals. Where the people themselves in the hospital said they had crossed from Mexico. Which had a different peak in their wave.

You and the article are incorrect on this point. The article they cite says that in a single hospital in Chula Vista (in San Diego not Imperial County) they found that 60% of hospital beds were recent arrivals from Mexico. In fact the article states that "only about 5% of COVID-19 patients reported they’d recently been to Mexico at Scripps’ three other emergency rooms farther north". Certainly Mexican arrivals present an issue at that one hospital, but that doesn't appear to be the case elsewhere. Then in the Horowitz article he for some reason follows that incorrect usage of that data to talk about Imperial County's percentage of cases by demographic. I assume you have no input on the other numerous critiques I had of the article?

It wasn’t written to explain Fla... which has so many fewer deaths than NY that it isn’t funny.

I think the idea is to try and avoid situations like what happened in NY from happening again.

You search for your own info, which as far as I can see is your unsubstantiated opinions with no data. Oh, just for your info, all the epidemiologists models have been proven wrong , and the cdc and who has changed their minds and opinions more than a hooker turning tricks.

I'm not making any statements about causes of increases so I'm not sure what data I'm supposed to provide to back that up. My opinion is that we really don't know well what is causing the spikes at this point, but we do know that it spreads through respiratory droplets so the best action we can take is to avoid unnecessary close contact with people and wear masks when you go out as we continue to learn. That seems to match what most epidemiologists are saying, which is my preferred method of determining what I should do rather than listening to what some media talking head has to say.

As far as the models go there was a pretty good read in PNAS about what we should take from Covid models. The classic saying is that all models are wrong, but some are useful and that's my general attitude as well. My favorite quote from the article comes at the end with:

"Policy actions must be guided by only sound assumptions, because mistaken assumptions may cost millions of lives. Instead of assuming that we fundamentally differ from all of the countries that have achieved or are nearing elimination (an assumption that becomes increasingly implausible as the number of these countries grows), we should instead focus on how we can replicate their common success."

Masks, social distancing, and contact tracing appear to be the common succeses among countries who have contained the spread well so I think that's what we should be doing. Unfortunately that is far from what we are doing in many states here in the US.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

A spike in known COVID-19 cases doesn’t warrant another shutdown – Orange County Register

article is opinion but California looks to be in good shape to handle an increase in cases.

 

[bdub24]

Let me just say, as a native Arizonan born on the border and a personal acquaintance of a border town’s present day mayor, there is no math that makes sense to say Mexico is now importing a spike to us. It is much more likely day trippers to Mexico from the US are taking it to Mexico. Most day trippers from Mx to the US are interested in getting some shopping done. Walmart, JCPenney, and Target. In fact there are entire businesses around this - companies who run busses all day from the border on the US side into towns and the parking lots of these places. When we gringos take a day trip down to the border towns of Mx, we’re wandering all over the damn place. Leather stalls for jackets purses boots, pharmacies for drugs for pennies to the dollar, bars for cervesas, and food stalls for street tacos. We are wandering all the hell through those places.

 

[adsfan]

Let me just say, as a native Arizonan born on the border and a personal acquaintance of a border town’s present day mayor, there is no math that makes sense to say Mexico is now importing a spike to us. It is much more likely day trippers to Mexico from the US are taking it to Mexico. Most day trippers from Mx to the US are interested in getting some shopping done. Walmart, JCPenney, and Target. In fact there are entire businesses around this - companies who run busses all day from the border on the US side into towns and the parking lots of these places. When we gringos take a day trip down to the border towns of Mx, we’re wandering all over the damn place. Leather stalls for jackets purses boots, pharmacies for drugs for pennies to the dollar, bars for cervesas, and food stalls for street tacos. We are wandering all the hell through those places.

Many years ago I was in Tucson. My wife was at a scientific conference. We had a chance to take buses trips to a former missile base in Green Valley, go to Tombstone or a shopping trip to Nogales, Mexico. Since we had 2 kids under the age of 10, I wasn't really interested in taking them shopping to a foreign country where I don't speak the language. I felt safer taking them to the hotel pool, where our room was 60 yards away, not 60 miles.

 

[czechczech]

From an NPR Report - Health Experts Link Rise In Arizona Coronavirus Cases To End Of Stay-At-Home Order

Public health experts agree: The timing of this spike reflects the state's reopening. "Perhaps Arizona will be a warning sign to other areas," said Katherine Ellingson, an epidemiologist at the University of Arizona. "We never had that consistent downward trend that would signal it's time to reopen and we have everything in place to do it safely."

Dr. Peter Hotez said the spike in Arizona, as well as parts of Texas such as Houston, Dallas and Austin, is the consequence of removing restrictions too quickly and without a public health system that can keep pace. "It was just open it up and then more or less business as usual, with a little bit of window dressing," said Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. "This is not an abstract number of cases. We're seeing people pile into intensive care units."

Health Experts Link Rise In Arizona Coronavirus Cases To End Of Stay-At-Home Order

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

If staying at home is the only way to reduce cases, then you have to keep people home until at least 2021 and probably longer, maybe years. This "too quickly" critique implies time changes conditions. It does not. "Until you can do it safely" is a misnomer. Just tell us: Stay home until we have a vaccine that works.

Or decide we live our lives and live with getting COVID. Wash your hands, don't get close to people, wear a mask if you can stand it, and live your life. If you get it, your odds are good.

This is getting so old and predictable. The Fix has been in from the get-go. Stop living in fear. Stop living not to die. Live your life, take precautions, shut off the TV, and stay off social media. It's toxic.

 

[PredsV82]

If staying at home is the only way to reduce cases, then you have to keep people home until at least 2021 and probably longer, maybe years. This "too quickly" critique implies time changes conditions. It does not. "Until you can do it safely" is a misnomer. Just tell us: Stay home until we have a vaccine that works.

Or decide we live our lives and live with getting COVID. Wash your hands, don't get close to people, wear a mask if you can stand it, and live your life. If you get it, your odds are good.

This is getting so old and predictable. The Fix has been in from the get-go. Stop living in fear. Stop living not to die. Live your life, take precautions, shut off the TV, and stay off social media. It's toxic.

The problem is a subset of people actively defy even mild common sense precautions to prevent the spread. If eeveryone wore masks, practiced hand hygiene and social distancing, we could get on with a lot of "normal" life without spreading the disease. But the "muh freedom" imbeciles coupled with the people who are just too lazy to care make it next to impossible.

Just look at the curves in europe. Almost every country has the disease down to minuscule numbers compared to the US. It's not impossible or inevitable, it just requires a level.of commitment that sadly too few in this country seem to have

 

[predfan98]

Oh and let’s add the imbeciles that protest in huge numbers constantly. Those imbeciles are adding more cases .... the virus doesn’t care what you’re doing.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Both are a problem.

The protests are a problem in terms of the record cases being set

MAGA people refuse to wear masks. we have known that from day one. and trump is just throwing away any chance of a coronavirus "victory" by the election with the rallies. he's digging his own grave.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Both are a problem.

The protests are a problem in terms of the record cases being set

MAGA people refuse to wear masks. we have known that from day one. and trump is just throwing away any chance of a coronavirus "victory" by the election with the rallies. he's digging his own grave.

At least the protests have a justification in the sense that they are fighting for something that matters a whole lot more than "muh face sweats too much".

I'm ok with the mild hit that the protests cause, because they are necessary and justified. The rest is just people being selfish and ignorant.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

At least the protests have a justification in the sense that they are fighting for something that matters a whole lot more than "muh face sweats too much".

I'm ok with the mild hit that the protests cause, because they are necessary and justified. The rest is just people being selfish and ignorant.

Don't disagree

 

[bdub24]

Many years ago I was in Tucson. My wife was at a scientific conference. We had a chance to take buses trips to a former missile base in Green Valley, go to Tombstone or a shopping trip to Nogales, Mexico. Since we had 2 kids under the age of 10, I wasn't really interested in taking them shopping to a foreign country where I don't speak the language. I felt safer taking them to the hotel pool, where our room was 60 yards away, not 60 miles.

Tombstone is worth the trip, very tourist trappy, but getting to wander around boothill is fun.

 

[bdub24]

Oh and let’s add the imbeciles that protest in huge numbers constantly. Those imbeciles are adding more cases .... the virus doesn’t care what you’re doing.

Nobody's arguing about the protests...doesnt negate the need for common sense must include wearing a face covering to limit the chance of spread.

 

[FossilFndr]

I'd bet there are far more protesters wearing masks to prevent COVID spread than there are individuals at other venues per capita. I'm sure there were photos showing that, but they tend to disappear.

 

[PredsV82]

Oh and let’s add the imbeciles that protest in huge numbers constantly. Those imbeciles are adding more cases .... the virus doesn’t care what you’re doing.

Are they "imbeciles" based on the fact that they are protesting, or that they are (allegedly) doing so without masks and social distancing?

 

[adsfan]

Tombstone is worth the trip, very tourist trappy, but getting to wander around boothill is fun.

I just saw a TV show a few weeks ago about Tombstone. They had shoot outs at 10, 12 and 2.

The OK Corral area looked pretty small. I don't see how you could miss somebody unless there was a lot of gun smoke from those 1880s weapons.

 

[BigFatCat999]

How did COVID go from 'It's the black plague!!!!!!!!!!!!" to old western shootouts? I mean it's like thread ADHD. I'm wondering why people lose their sense of smell?

 

[Armourboy]

I'd bet there are far more protesters wearing masks to prevent COVID spread than there are individuals at other venues per capita. I'm sure there were photos showing that, but they tend to disappear.

Purely political memes tend to have that happen.

That said whether its protests, rallies, or any other large gatherings you are going to be spreading it right now. Masks offer some protection, but it can also be transferred by contact, so if you are standing elbow to elbow, bumping into people, etc. you are still actively participating in its spread.

The biggest complaints I have with both the protests and the rallies is the hypocrisy from the government side of it. They are shutting down businesses for allowing too many people, but then stand up and cheer large gatherings of protesters and rallies. At least be freaking consistent.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I don't think either protests or rallies in the 10k range are a big enough event to compare with the day to day movement and interactions of millions of people across the country. They're just a convenient thing for each side to point to and say "GOTCHA!"

 

[FossilFndr]

Purely political memes tend to have that happen.

I was just looking at static photos and footage, conjured internet memes do nothing for me.

 

[predfan98]

Are they "imbeciles" based on the fact that they are protesting, or that they are (allegedly) doing so without masks and social distancing?

No, I used the word “imbeciles” in reference to to your comment about imbeciles. You said “But the "muh freedom" imbeciles coupled with the people who are just too lazy to care make it next to impossible.”.


If the “muh freedom” people are spreading the virus, then the “protestor” people are spreading the virus. Just using your adjectives.

trying to twist why I called then imbeciles is pretty indicative of your political affiliation.... the pettiness.. and divisiveness. Not pretty .

 

[bdub24]

Oh I get it..because someone called one group imbeciles, there was a need to counter post calling another group a bunch of imbeciles while simultaneously calling the other poster petty. How exhausting it must be.

 

[predfan98]

A spike in known COVID-19 cases doesn’t warrant another shutdown – Orange County Register

article is opinion but California looks to be in good shape to handle an increase in cases.

In general most are really in good shape. It’s very individual hospitals. It’s going to go up and down for a while.

Media loves this. Constant alerts , lol.

 

[triggrman]

You guys that blame everything on Trump are f***ing stupid. I hate politics but I really hate hard line party guy that thinks his party is perfect.

I wear a mask when I need too, if I'm outside, or in my car, I don't wear one. If I'm running into Kroger, sometimes I do, sometimes I forget. It has nothing to do with my voting preferences. If that makes me a selfish asshole, then so be it, label me whatever, but what it's not, is some sort of political statement.