COVID-19 Megathread II (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[predfan24]

i can get down with this.

i will just say the states started opening back up the last week of April and first of may. everything was fine until the month of June. And we know the people that don't care about masks and social distancing have been doing that since day 1. Sure people have gotten more relaxed as time has went on with social distancing but i don't see how it could lead to the massive increase we have seen.

It takes time due to transmission rate and exponential growth right? The transmission rate and community spread should have plummeted during the lockdowns. It takes time for the spread to build up to point where it suddenly explodes. Exponential growth makes it look like everything is kosher until it's suddenly not. Is that what we are seeing in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California?

 

[predfan24]

I've struggled with losing my confidence in society during this pandemic. I always knew there was a sizable amount of people who were anti-science and anti-intellectual, but it seems like the problem is even worse than I had originally thought. To be fair, some of my mindset might be influenced by the media. However, evidence that supports my hypothesis, the failure of the U.S to control this virus, behavior that purposefully ignores and goes against public health recommendations, anecdotal evidence such as going to the grocery store, retail stores etc. and only seeing around 25% mask usage, an unfathomable amount of people blindly following a man who constantly lies to the public, shouts dangerous rhetoric and promotes ignorance as a virtue. My social media has a frightening amount of people going on vacation and posting pictures of them clearly not social distancing, gathering in large groups, claiming anyone adhering to public health recommendations is a "sheep", espousing dangerous right wing talking points/ideology. The most ignorant seem to be the loudest and most outspoken. Sure, Dunning-Kruger might explain why the minority feels like the majority. Maybe I am wrong. I have been struggling with off and on depression. It's a tough time to be a empathetic human being.

 

[bdub24]

See the close proximity of the protests it should be obvious that it is inherently unsafe as it goes against social distancing and not everybody is wearing masks and lets face it, you’re spending the majority of the time outdoors protesting, you’re not washing your hands as you grab a snack, drink, tear gas canister and what have you. No-one can say the protests aren’t a super spreader risk with a straight face.

Now there are very valid idealogical arguments of is the risk of spreading this disease greater than the need to protest people getting assaulted and murdered of course.

But you cant make some sort of argument that somehow the mass protests were safe...

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i do not disagree with anything i am reading from each of you.

 

[bdub24]

i do not disagree with anything i am reading from each of you.

In the end, perhaps common sense will win out!

 

[NoNecksCurse]

In the end, perhaps common sense will win out!

i think people are finally realizing.

wear a mask or it's back to a possible shut down. there are some that will never get it.

 

[Armourboy]

I've struggled with losing my confidence in society during this pandemic. I always knew there was a sizable amount of people who were anti-science and anti-intellectual, but it seems like the problem is even worse than I had originally thought. To be fair, some of my mindset might be influenced by the media. However, evidence that supports my hypothesis, the failure of the U.S to control this virus, behavior that purposefully ignores and goes against public health recommendations, anecdotal evidence such as going to the grocery store, retail stores etc. and only seeing around 25% mask usage, an unfathomable amount of people blindly following a man who constantly lies to the public, shouts dangerous rhetoric and promotes ignorance as a virtue. My social media has a frightening amount of people going on vacation and posting pictures of them clearly not social distancing, gathering in large groups, claiming anyone adhering to public health recommendations is a "sheep", espousing dangerous right wing talking points/ideology. The most ignorant seem to be the loudest and most outspoken. Sure, Dunning-Kruger might explain why the minority feels like the majority. Maybe I am wrong. I have been struggling with off and on depression. It's a tough time to be a empathetic human being.

I don't really view it that way. I think certainly that group of people exists, but for the most part I see it as an ever growing number of people who are just done with the whole thing. Even with that though in Shelbyville people may not be wearing masks a ton ( mostly those working), but what they are doing is respecting the space around them.

I think it has less to do with rightwing/anti anything and more that people are just trying to move on with their lives. I have very liberal friends and I have very conservative friends and both are doing things essentially the same way. They are close together as a group but try and keep distance from others.

I would also advise people to step back from too much media. They are a business, and they will do whatever as long as it drives viewership. They will frame things to make them look much worse than they are just to get your attention so they can get that advertising dollar. Its not so much that the information they give is wrong, it's more with how they try to frame it.

Take Tennessee for example. We are seeing a spike in cases, but from what I've been able to dig up a rather large chunk of those are in the younger brackets. This is one reason why I think while we may be seeing a spike in cases we aren't necessarily seeing a spike in deaths, nor are hospitals filling up. You don't really hear anyone saying that though it just " look at the big numbers ".

 

[FossilFndr]

Give it time, if there is a spike in any age group it sure won't stay in that age group.

 

[Armourboy]

Give it time, if there is a spike in any age group it sure won't stay in that age group.

Pretty much been the driving group since this last uptick started. They tend to be the ones going out in larger groups.

 

[czechczech]

It's hard to be hopeful when you read reports like this one from Arizona. Difficult to imagine Governor Lee acting very much different.

Mask up Tennessee! It's not like someone asked you to wear a Redwings sweater!

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/06/25/arizona-governor-doug-ducey-update-covid-19/3258947001/

 

[NoNecksCurse]

It's hard to be hopeful when you read reports like this one from Arizona. Difficult to imagine Governor Lee acting very much different.

Mask up Tennessee! It's not like someone asked you to wear a Redwings sweater!

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/06/25/arizona-governor-doug-ducey-update-covid-19/3258947001/

what are you suggesting at this point?

 

[NoNecksCurse]

texas reverts back into shutdown phases.

everyone please wear a mask!

 

[Adz]

I am going to buy another box of disposable masks now just in case there's another run on them. I have some cloth ones (Preds!) but they're scratchy so I just look at them these days.

 

[PredsV82]

Almost 9000!!! New cases in one day in Florida.

And as noted, Texas going back on shutdown.

And this is in the middle.of summer... imagine if we still dont have a vaccine by December

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, nobody saw this coming...

 

[predfan98]

Horowitz: Border state surge: Rise in serious southwestern cases driven by border-crossers from Mexico

This looks at stats in hospitals in Texas,Arizona and California. And the dates of highest curves in Mexico being months after ours.

I don’t know enough about farmworkers in TN. To know how much change of personnel there is through the growing season. Or in the meatpacking community. Or construction industry.

Perhaps it is a small part of the high rates in SE Davidson county. Don’t know.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Almost 9000!!! New cases in one day in Florida.

And as noted, Texas going back on shutdown.

And this is in the middle.of summer... imagine if we still dont have a vaccine by December

you can't have a second wave if the first wave never stops

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Horowitz: Border state surge: Rise in serious southwestern cases driven by border-crossers from Mexico

This looks at stats in hospitals in Texas,Arizona and California. And the dates of highest curves in Mexico being months after ours.

I don’t know enough about farmworkers in TN. To know how much change of personnel there is through the growing season. Or in the meatpacking community. Or construction industry.

Perhaps it is a small part of the high rates in SE Davidson county. Don’t know.

It is our own lax in screening and testing a border that is the problem, not the people coming in. Seriously why aren't they quarantined for 14 days when they enter the country? It also seems to me that they are trying to blame it on somebody else again. It isn't us it is China and now Mexico.

 

[FossilFndr]

One would think that those using a wave analogy have never been to the ocean. Speaking as an old surfer waves come in sets, and the second wave in the set is often larger than the first one, then they diminish til the next set.

Today a new record high in Tennessee with 1410 new cases. Using the ocean analogy it looks like the storm is still building.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

COVID-19 continues Arizona spike, more than 3,400 new cases reported June 26

Here's some positive news... in Arizona.

They are setting daily cases but there is still plenty of ICU beds and ventilators available. the hospitalizations, ICU, ventilators all went down. which is great news. positive rate is still high. but it's still worth noting.

Florida and Texas are the 2 states i think are the only 2 we could see continue to go back in shutdown phases.

 

[predfan98]

It is our own lax in screening and testing a border that is the problem, not the people coming in. Seriously why aren't they quarantined for 14 days when they enter the country? It also seems to me that they are trying to blame it on somebody else again. It isn't us it is China and now Mexico.

These are green card holders and visa holders. It’s just stats from hospitals.

 

[predfan98]

COVID-19 continues Arizona spike, more than 3,400 new cases reported June 26

Here's some positive news... in Arizona.

They are setting daily cases but there is still plenty of ICU beds and ventilators available. the hospitalizations, ICU, ventilators all went down. which is great news. positive rate is still high. but it's still worth noting.

Florida and Texas are the 2 states i think are the only 2 we could see continue to go back in shutdown phases.

I believe Florida and Texas both shut down bars today.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Horowitz: Border state surge: Rise in serious southwestern cases driven by border-crossers from Mexico

This looks at stats in hospitals in Texas,Arizona and California. And the dates of highest curves in Mexico being months after ours.

I don’t know enough about farmworkers in TN. To know how much change of personnel there is through the growing season. Or in the meatpacking community. Or construction industry.

Perhaps it is a small part of the high rates in SE Davidson county. Don’t know.

This is the kind of crap you're getting your info from? Amateur statisticians making inferences from largely unsourced data instead of epidemiologists? Explains a lot actually.

Despite being immediately turned off by the heavily partisan tones to start the article I'm always willing to look at data to form my own opinion and my god is this just absolute crap.

For the first map presentd by Kyle Lamb large swaths of the country just don't even have the HSPI calculated. Unclear why that is. Also no rationale provided for how data binning for the map was decided. Presumably they were chosen based on what would best illustrate the pre-concieved notion they were trying to make. Beyond that there are numerous statistics for analyzing whether hotspots are actually significant geospatially none of which are used. These are literally all intro level tools in geospatial analysis that aren't being utilized.

The tweets by Ian Miller (whoever that is as it isn't explained) are completely unsourced so I guess I'm just supposed to take his data at face value based on nothing.

As far as the data regarding northern versus southern counties in Arizona its not shocking that the southern counties have a larger case increase given their higher population densities as its pretty well established the population density has a large affect on infection rates.

The claim that 50% of Imperial County's cases being Hispanic as being an indicator of border crossings as a cause is an absurd statement given that the county is 80% Hispanic. Shocking that cases would match the demographics of the county.

There is no explanation of why the counties with the two largest ports of entry (El Paso and San Diego) don't have the highest surges in cases. Nor does it help to explain the surges in non-border states like Florida or South Carolina.

I don't doubt that border crossings are causing coronavirus cases if they aren't being quarantined for 14 days which they absolutely should be, but there just isn't enough evidence in this article to claim that border crossings are the most serious cause of the surges in coronavirus cases.

 

[Adz]

I believe Florida and Texas both shut down bars today.

It's a smart move from a health standpoint. Bars encourage mingling around in close quarters for long periods of time along with lowered inhibitions (and masks). Economically it's another blow.

Oh, to have a do over on September 2019--I'd have traded my $1200, skipped May ticket ding, and PPP loan money for the construction of continental geodesic dome by November/December in a heartbeat.

 

[Armourboy]

This is the kind of crap you're getting your info from? Amateur statisticians making inferences from largely unsourced data instead of epidemiologists? Explains a lot actually.

Despite being immediately turned off by the heavily partisan tones to start the article I'm always willing to look at data to form my own opinion and my god is this just absolute crap.

For the first map presentd by Kyle Lamb large swaths of the country just don't even have the HSPI calculated. Unclear why that is. Also no rationale provided for how data binning for the map was decided. Presumably they were chosen based on what would best illustrate the pre-concieved notion they were trying to make. Beyond that there are numerous statistics for analyzing whether hotspots are actually significant geospatially none of which are used. These are literally all intro level tools in geospatial analysis that aren't being utilized.

The tweets by Ian Miller (whoever that is as it isn't explained) are completely unsourced so I guess I'm just supposed to take his data at face value based on nothing.

As far as the data regarding northern versus southern counties in Arizona its not shocking that the southern counties have a larger case increase given their higher population densities as its pretty well established the population density has a large affect on infection rates.

The claim that 50% of Imperial County's cases being Hispanic as being an indicator of border crossings as a cause is an absurd statement given that the county is 80% Hispanic. Shocking that cases would match the demographics of the county.

There is no explanation of why the counties with the two largest ports of entry (El Paso and San Diego) don't have the highest surges in cases. Nor does it help to explain the surges in non-border states like Florida or South Carolina.

I don't doubt that border crossings are causing coronavirus cases if they aren't being quarantined for 14 days which they absolutely should be, but there just isn't enough evidence in this article to claim that border crossings are the most serious cause of the surges in coronavirus cases.

They aren't the only ones making claims like this though, our own governments are doing the same thing.

Memorial Day activities messed things up, but protests? Oh no those didn't do a thing to spread the virus at all.

Let's be honest, just about everyone right now seems to want to blame everything but the activity they are involved in and support, including the very people making decisions.