COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

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Ryder71

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Nov 24, 2017
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I've been checking and/or linking the numbers daily.

Assuming this comment is correct, Arizona's 7 day rolling average of new diagnoses hit its plateau July 2 and started coming down July 11. It's now 28% down from the high.

Texas hit its plateau period from July 11 through July 22. Now down 18% from the high.

Florida is down 8% from their new diagnoses rolling average highs, so this still is more of an open question in the abstract. But with their ICU and general hospital bed space has been steady for two weeks (actually more beds have come available the last few days), I suspect this tends to confirm what Gottleib said.

As an aside, it's interesting that I see so little of this story in the media. Can't fathom why so few want to report some good news from these states . . .
Of course good news goes unreported or at best is reported scarcely. You need to get with the program and stay on script. Good news is forbidden! And if that's hyperbole it is only ever so slightly.
 

NMK11

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Apr 6, 2013
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How many businesses can afford to shut down for a year and a half, continue to have to pay 80 percent of their expenses including rent, utilities, and still be around after? We already lost 60 percent of restaurants forever.
So just because the argument of "lots of people die anyway" and "it's inevitable that we'll all get the virus anyway" are two arguments that have been brought up on here, I have to point out that 17-30% (I've seen up to 60% but that seems like the outlier) of restaurants close within a year if opening at baseline. Just wondering how you compare and contrast the two.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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Do you know the annoying thing to come out of these MLB COVID-19 cases? Not only does it make the "WE SHOULD SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN!" crowd more obnoxious, but it's also making people act like the problem with the comeback is the travel, not the fact that players aren't social distancing and aren't wearing masks.
 
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KIRK

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Curious if that's also happening in Europe. Their lockdowns were much stricter even in regions that weren't as heavily hit. Now we're seeing spikes again after they've begun reopening and allowing international travel. If so, it's starting to prove you can't hide from this virus forever or wait it out with lockdowns.

Places like Spain got hit pretty hard in the spring, and their current 'spike' is to about 1500 cases per day average in a country of 47 million people. Way too early, looking just at the numbers, to say if this actually is the start of a true spike and, if it is, to know if it will be mitigated because Spain already took a hit like they did in the spring.
 

KIRK

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Aug 2, 2005
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Do you know the annoying thing to come out of these MLB COVID-19 cases? Not only does it make the "WE SHOULD SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN!" crowd more obnoxious, but it's also making people act like the problem with the comeback is the travel, not the fact that players aren't social distancing and aren't wearing masks.

No clue why MLB thought this would work without putting people into a bubble.
 

Empoleon8771

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No clue why MLB thought this would work without putting people into a bubble.

I don't think the problem here is not having a bubble, it's the MLB not requiring masks and social distancing. The goal isn't to have no COVID-19 cases, it's to not have a breakout with COVID-19 cases.

They can survive with a case or 2, and if they're wearing masks and social distancing, that should be the limit for how much it spreads. Instead, they have basically no requirements for safety and it spreads like wildfire after 1 person gets it.
 

KIRK

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I don't think the problem here is not having a bubble, it's the MLB not requiring masks and social distancing. The goal isn't to have no COVID-19 cases, it's to not have a breakout with COVID-19 cases.

Yeah, but they were still allowed to go about their normal lives, yes?

The NBA players are in a bubble (although I guess maybe a few players have tried to game things with stuff like food?).

The NHL maybe should've done a bubble before this phase, but they're going into a bubble. I guess they'll be allowed to go out, which is a risk, but it's Canada, not a hot spot in the US like Miami. So even that's different.
 

Empoleon8771

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Yeah, but they were still allowed to go about their normal lives, yes?

The NBA players are in a bubble (although I guess maybe a few players have tried to game things with stuff like food?).

The NHL maybe should've done a bubble before this phase, but they're going into a bubble. I guess they'll be allowed to go out, which is a risk, but it's Canada, not a hot spot in the US like Miami. So even that's different.

Yes, but like I said, the point isn't to not have any COVID-19 cases. It's to not have any team outbreaks. You can make a traveling schedule work with knowing that you'll have some cases. You just have to keep players separated enough that they won't spread it to each other.
 

KIRK

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Yes, but like I said, the point isn't to not have any COVID-19 cases. It's to not have any team outbreaks. You can make a traveling schedule work with knowing that you'll have some cases. You just have to keep players separated enough that they won't spread it to each other.

Unfortunately, that was the flaw in the plan. Like every other super spreader-- bars, protests, beaches, etc-- planning the reopening of a sport relying this much on people's better angels might not have been the best idea.
 

Fordy

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May 28, 2008
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i'm pretty tired of people chanting "applebees olive garden" when it comes to closing businesses or people's desire to socialize
 

Ryder71

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Nov 24, 2017
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If they're so hell-bent on unemployment benefits being too high, why not just decrease it instead of making this overly complicated system that most states wouldn't be able to implement?
The states outdated infrastructure in that regard will just cause more and more problems. I agree, just lessen the amount. Maybe taper it off over time.
 

Factorial

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Oct 7, 2019
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If they're so hell-bent on unemployment benefits being too high, why not just decrease it instead of making this overly complicated system that most states wouldn't be able to implement?

GOP wants to drop the amount to $200/week and the Dems want it to stay at $600 so they will probably agree to $400.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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GOP wants to drop the amount to $200/week and the Dems want it to stay at $600 so they will probably agree to $400.

Bold of you to assume that the GOP will be willing to negotiate on that after how hellbent they've been on saying it's a problem :laugh:

What will probably happen is that the GOP won't budge, Democrats will cave (because they always do) and the next stimulus bill will suck for unemployed people.
 

mrzeigler

.. but I'm not wrong
Sep 30, 2006
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I sure hope that is not the case and only nasty chains remain, but if so, I'll happily starve to death before visiting an Applebee's or Olive Garden...

That "lost 60 percent forever" stat is a bit misleading, depending on which perspective you're looking at it.

* If you're one of the people who own a restaurant, that's a terrifying statistic, because the odds are that your livelihood will go kaput. No doubt, these are catostrophic times to own a restaurant or bar, and our safety nets need to support those who can't work their jobs during the pandemic.

* However, if you're on the outside looking in as a customer, and you're concern is "will there be places to eat or drink at when this is over?" Well, then it's a different story. Yes, 6 of 10 specific restaurants that existed pre-COVID may not be there when the pandemic is over, but I expect that new restaurants will open shortly after a return to normalcy and take the place of those that didn't make it. Depending on how the unemployment rate is at the time, we might have fewer restaurants initially, but within a couple of months of "normalcy" we won't be anywhere near having 60 percent fewer restaurants in general.

That's little consolation to current restaurant owners, though. And while it's scary for the staff who work there, there will be new opportunities.

God, leave it to a pandemic to get me monologuing like this guy:
 
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