Corsi and Advanced Stats

[charlie1]

So is the takeaway that with regression to the mean we're due for better goaltending?

I think that's probably true for Chad. But I've been thinking that for a while now...

Or to start losing more games where the goaltending is subpar?

Our 5-game rolling average possession numbers are starting to take a dive. If that keeps up then yes, I expect us to start losing more games, especially if the goaltending continues to be crap.

So either we have to get our possession back on track, or we need the goalies to step up ASAP.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Our 5-game rolling average possession numbers are starting to take a dive. If that keeps up then yes, I expect us to start losing more games, especially if the goaltending continues to be crap.

So either we have to get our possession back on track, or we need the goalies to step up ASAP.

This is all true, but I tend to dismiss this concern as a SSS (in possession terms). Lets see where we're at five games from now. We've had very strong (and getting stronger over time) possession numbers for over half the season.

I know you're not predicting a fall, just merely explaining the possibility; but I don't want that to be misconstrued.

 

[charlie1]

Yeah, it's a nowcast not a forecast. I'm definitely not predicting a fall.

 

[charlie1]

Advanced stat of the day

Corsi table from last night. First and fourth line had good numbers, the rest of the forwards, not so much.



Edit: Full article here: http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2015/2/3/7972047/islanders-vs-panthers-game-50-thread

 

[PK Cronin]

Are there any charts out there that show teams being good in advanced stats and then tanking later in the year?

Curious to know whether or not it's possible for us to go from being really good in those areas to not so good.

 

[IceAce]

Good possession teams for 50 games don't typically just fall off the map.

This is now the team's third three game losing streak this season and each time previously we bounced back in a big way.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Are there any charts out there that show teams being good in advanced stats and then tanking later in the year?

Curious to know whether or not it's possible for us to go from being really good in those areas to not so good.

Such as what? Like becoming a bad possession team later? Possession, thankfully, stays fairly consistent throughout the season because the samples are so big.

Bad goaltending can sink any team though. Similarly, the Kings are still an elite possession team but are not playing all that well despite good goaltending albeit with a below average shooting percentage which almost certainly will rebound just in time for them to make the playoffs and upset the Sharks, among others.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Good possession teams for 50 games don't typically just fall off the map.

This is now the team's third three game losing streak this season and each time previously we bounced back in a big way.

I'll just add to that: Florida, Boston, Detroit are all good possession teams. No shame in losing to good teams, or even an occasional loss to a bad team.

I realize we're all tempted to hit the panic button, but this is still a very good, very strong team which has succeeded despite substantial injury over the course of the season.

There is a problem with backup goaltending, but other than that this is a strong, deep, successful club who has STILL not achieved maximum potential.

 

[Bones45]

Whats the Corsi of Cronin lasting the entire year?

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Whats the Corsi of Cronin lasting the entire year?

Ownership here is very loyal, but he should be replaced at this point. This opinion is not advanced stat related.

 

[charlie1]

Whats the Corsi of Cronin lasting the entire year?

Strong to quite strong, I'm afraid.

 

[charlie1]

Are there any charts out there that show teams being good in advanced stats and then tanking later in the year?

Curious to know whether or not it's possible for us to go from being really good in those areas to not so good.

Not that I know of but it wouldn't be too difficult to check. Define "tank" and I'll look into it if I can find some time.

 

[PK Cronin]

Such as what? Like becoming a bad possession team later? Possession, thankfully, stays fairly consistent throughout the season because the samples are so big.

Bad goaltending can sink any team though. Similarly, the Kings are still an elite possession team but are not playing all that well despite good goaltending albeit with a below average shooting percentage which almost certainly will rebound just in time for them to make the playoffs and upset the Sharks, among others.

Thanks for that.

Not that I know of but it wouldn't be too difficult to check. Define "tank" and I'll look into it if I can find some time.

I'd say a team that had good/great possession numbers midway through the season, was in playoff position, then dropped out of the race as their advanced stats dropped.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I'd say a team that had good/great possession numbers midway through the season, was in playoff position, then dropped out of the race as their advanced stats dropped.

Off-hand no, although plenty of teams the other way around (bad possession numbers, still succeeding, then eventually regression catches up and they collapse like a house of cards)

 

[charlie1]

Thanks for that.



I'd say a team that had good/great possession numbers midway through the season, was in playoff position, then dropped out of the race as their advanced stats dropped.

It's hard to make a graph with that much info, but here's an idea:

A graph of (corsi in first half) vs (corsi in second half), where each team is a point on the graph, and each point is colored according to whether they made the playoffs.

How's that sound?

 

[IceAce]

Not sure about you, but I've got a stats chubby.

 

[Islanders1932]

A look at the goaltending situation in the Metro:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/nelson-breaking-down-goaltending-in-the-metro-division/

The Islanders have the worst all-sitation Sv% in the Metro, and the highest variability in Sv% in the Metro, yet they have found a way to win in most situations. A lot of that is the Chad Johnson effect, and our extremely poor PK.

20 games below .884 SV% that is mind blowing. Just imagine where we would be with a decent back up right now.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

If the Islanders had the Rangers goaltending, we'd be planning a parade already.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Not sure about you, but I've got a stats chubby.

I pretty much always do.

 

[charlie1]

Not sure about you, but I've got a stats chubby.

I pretty much always do.

 

[CaptDenisPotvin]

Ok this is the 3rd time we have lost 3 in a row...Last night was not encouraging in any way. Didn't seem like we had any urgency especially in the 3rd period down by a goal against an inferior team and backup goalie.

I'm hoping one of you guys has a stat that says there are brighter days ahead because my hand is hovering over the panic button at the moment. I didn't see a whole lot of positives last night, PK is still hot garbage, team had no intensity...very concerned at the moment.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Ok this is the 3rd time we have lost 3 in a row...Last night was not encouraging in any way. Didn't seem like we had any urgency especially in the 3rd period down by a goal against an inferior team and backup goalie.

I'm hoping one of you guys has a stat that says there are brighter days ahead because my hand is hovering over the panic button at the moment. I didn't see a whole lot of positives last night, PK is still hot garbage, team had no intensity...very concerned at the moment.

You're mired in the mindset of three games, we're looking at 82. There is nothing to worry about.

This team is still the number ONE score-adjusted Fenwick team and the number four score-adjusted Corsi team. Nothing is more reliable for success than score-adjusted possession numbers.

 

[PK Cronin]

It's hard to make a graph with that much info, but here's an idea:

A graph of (corsi in first half) vs (corsi in second half), where each team is a point on the graph, and each point is colored according to whether they made the playoffs.

How's that sound?

Yep, that'd work.

 

[Tavares2TheRescue]

Such as what? Like becoming a bad possession team later? Possession, thankfully, stays fairly consistent throughout the season because the samples are so big.

Bad goaltending can sink any team though. Similarly, the Kings are still an elite possession team but are not playing all that well despite good goaltending albeit with a below average shooting percentage which almost certainly will rebound just in time for them to make the playoffs and upset the Sharks, among others.

Yeah, LA is one of the top five possession teams in the league. Sucks for whoever draws them in the first round.

 

[charlie1]

Advanced stat of the day

First round match-up probabilities for the Islanders: