Coronavirus

[griffs]

A college basketball game for tonight in Ohio has been cancelled because of Coronavirus fears.

Central Michigan basketball game at Miami (Ohio) postponed over coronavirus fears

 

[EdJovanovski]

Health Canada is a world leader in the study and control of these sorts of infections. It's laughable that some posters here are alleging negligence.

They are? Sure didn't work out too well for SARS

 

[67 others]

China is shutting down all public gatherings. If this thing hits North America, pro sports will be one of the first things to go.

I have no idea how the NHL would handle a city (or the entire league) being shut down. Is there anything buried in the CBA about that?

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

 

[belair]

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

When 4,500 becomes 45,000 becomes 450,000 becomes 4,500,000...

The numbers of those previous outbreaks remained low because preventative measures were taken.

Panic isn't what anyone should do. But educating yourself on the topic can only help in the instances where these odd threats pop up.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

I would guess (and it is only a guess) because of how easily it spreads, the fact that it spreads while a-symptomatic and that incubation can last up to 14 days. If infection rates get high enough, it can completely overwhelm even the most prepared hospitals. As quality of care becomes rationed/declines due to the number of infections, it would seem logical that mortality rates would increase. Then you have to begin to factor in economic impacts and such.

 

[Tanknation]

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

Unlike most viruses, this particular one, a patient can show no symptoms for up to 14 days and still transmit the virus. You never know with these things. Fear of the unknown. Plus the human species is due for a terrible epidemic if we go by history.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

Media coverage is one factor. It tends to over estimate the likely impact of these kinds of things. Some people also make good money being alarmists in these situations. One course I took in college was about the history of pandemics and mass panics, it's pretty fascinating and one reason I'm not terribly concerned personally. Still something to keep an eye on for sure though.

 

[BruinsFan37]

It'd be silly at this point to rush out and buy masks if you live anywhere in North America or Europe because of this, especially if you're good health. If your in poor health, you probably have masks already, and if you're going to a high risk environment (Hospitals/doctors offices/etc) they're already giving out masks for flu (and other diseases).

Though its debatable if the masks do any good (at preventing the wearer from catching something) even in high risk environments since they don't cover the eyes and rarely (if ever) provide a good seal on the nose/mouth. You see them at Hospitals and whatnot not to keep healthy people from catching the flu (or whatever) but to keep sick individuals from transmitting (since they can cough into the mask less chance of transmitting it to others).

 

[GuelphStormer]

They are? Sure didn't work out too well for SARS

yes, people died (which unfortunately does happen during pandemics) but exactly what decisions did health officials in Canada take that were wrong? im curious about what you know.

 

[Pandaman11]

ugh. statistically significant estimates are difficult to calculate, but it is now well understood and accepted that community quarantine actions undertaken during SARS were effective in lessening transmission. what you call scaremongering is better known as effective public health policy.

Yes, I'd never question those actions. They are prudent and correct. I was more aiming at the tone in media coverage. Why does the tone have to be "OMG it's spreading across the oceans, it has arrived in our country!" and not "these are the hard facts, there's no need to take panic-driven actions" ?

 

[bucks_oil]

They are? Sure didn't work out too well for SARS

Actually, the Canada/Toronto outbreak of SARS is cited often in the literature for having been a fantastic example of how good public health measures helped contain the spread. Some of the lessons learned were later applied to Ebola (which was obviously much more virulent).

Not to mention Marco Marra's group being the first to sequence it's genome at the BC Cancer Agency.

... but carry on.

 

[bucks_oil]

Why do people Panic over this stuff?

Its like 4500 people infected, 106 have died. a whole 2%

When Swine flu first came out, the numbers rolling out were something like 1500 infected, 300 have died and people were panicking. That was more understandable, despite the numbers rolling waaaaay back to earth once it was worldwide.

Somewhat tangential, but since you brought up infection rate...

It is somewhat paradoxical that the "fittest" virus is actually not the strongest/most lethal/most virulent. If you are a virus and you want to have a healthy long life and lots of great, great^200, grandkids... the best thing you can do is make sure your host is highly viremic, but not so sick that they would stay home... or die.

To wit... a virus with a long incubation period and enough virulence to worry about, but not so much to keep people from being out and about and coughing on each other... can be a real public health/global health nightmare. I mean I share your view... no real cause to panic if you are fit and healthy... but the people who are paid to contain these things are right to sound alarm bells... in fact that's the job.

 

[Random Comment]

"A whole 2%". I mean yah it's not the apocalypse, but if it ends up infecting 500mil-1bil people that is still 20 million deaths. Even just 10 mil people infected you are looking at 200,000 deaths. Call me when that number is inconsequential.

Nobody needs to panic, but if I were 65+ years old I'd take precautions that everyone should be doing during a typical flu season - regular hand washing and avoiding those who are sick.

 

[Lt Dan]

Actually, the Canada/Toronto outbreak of SARS is cited often in the literature for having been a fantastic example of how good public health measures helped contain the spread. Some of the lessons learned were later applied to Ebola (which was obviously much more virulent).
.

This

We haven't had a really bad pandemic in 100 years
People forget how quick these can spread and how nasty they can become.
The Spanish Flu started in the US and was minor and was brought over by Doughboys and it evolved and killed 50 million people

Never underestimate a virus. they evolve and mutate quickly

 

[Cane mutiny]

Most of the time with these sorts of infectious diseases, the death rates are very much higher in places with overpopulation and in third world countries without clean water, access to medicine and generally poor health care systems. Sars and Hantavirus were scary, but were contained and dealt with pretty effectively in North America. We have to believe we can deal with this new invader with the same gusto. No need to panic yet.

 

[HSF]

I would guess (and it is only a guess) because of how easily it spreads, the fact that it spreads while a-symptomatic and that incubation can last up to 14 days. If infection rates get high enough, it can completely overwhelm even the most prepared hospitals. As quality of care becomes rationed/declines due to the number of infections, it would seem logical that mortality rates would increase. Then you have to begin to factor in economic impacts and such.

Unlike most viruses, this particular one, a patient can show no symptoms for up to 14 days and still transmit the virus. You never know with these things. Fear of the unknown. Plus the human species is due for a terrible epidemic if we go by history.

On the flip side the symptoms not being as bad as SARS means the mortality rate will probably stay low. So far, SARS was a more deadly virus.

Additionally, The mortality rate for this Coronavirus is at 2% BUT experts believe the real number is lower than that due to people having it but not reporting it due to their symptoms being almost similar to that of the flu and not life threatening

We are pretty lucky to be in a world and country where this stuff is taken seriously

 

[HSF]

They are? Sure didn't work out too well for SARS

SARS taught the world about about the importance of isolating the virus. If you look at the measures countries such as China are taking now compared to SARS its night and day.

The world is much more prepared since SARS to deal with outbreaks. Manitoba is a world leader in this area.

 

[EdJovanovski]

yes, people died (which unfortunately does happen during pandemics) but exactly what decisions did health officials in Canada take that were wrong? im curious about what you know.

I was a little kid at the time but IIRC the disease was specifically spread in hospitals and not in general public life, because they were ill-prepared and didn’t isolate patients, etc. 45 deaths in Canada compared to 0 in US

 

[EdJovanovski]

SARS taught the world about about the importance of isolating the virus. If you look at the measures countries such as China are taking now compared to SARS its night and day.

The world is much more prepared since SARS to deal with outbreaks. Manitoba is a world leader in this area.

I too believe everything the Chinese government says lol, many reports are saying they were suppressing news coverage of it until news broke internationally and they had no choice. There are also many allegations that there are far greater numbers of those infected than what they’re telling us.

And I don’t think a Universities research is indicative of the health care system as a whole we have very long wait times, few doctors per capita, outdated technology (and very low quantity of it), takes forever for drugs to hit the market, we barely produce any innovation in pharmaceuticals or technology. I think people knew how to deal with pandemics as the US managed to have 0 deaths while Canada had 45.

Even if we trust China’s numbers they are now reporting over 6000 cases, which greater than SARS so they obviously don’t have things under control.

 

[Bonham]

yes, people died (which unfortunately does happen during pandemics) but exactly what decisions did health officials in Canada take that were wrong? im curious about what you know.

Spoiler alert -- not much.

 

[HSF]

I too believe everything the Chinese government says lol, many reports are saying they were suppressing news coverage of it until news broke internationally and they had no choice. There are also many allegations that there are far greater numbers of those infected than what they’re telling us.

And I don’t think a Universities research is indicative of the health care system as a whole we have very long wait times, few doctors per capita, outdated technology (and very low quantity of it), takes forever for drugs to hit the market, we barely produce any innovation in pharmaceuticals or technology. I think people knew how to deal with pandemics as the US managed to have 0 deaths while Canada had 45.

Even if we trust China’s numbers they are now reporting over 6000, which greater than SARS so they obviously don’t have things under control.

Your first mistake is comparing the SARS virus to this virus. Both are very different. This coronavirus is more contagious but less lethal than SARS (so far). What that means is you have a lot of people who are sick who aren't going to the doctor cause they believe they just have the flu. This skews the numbers of what will be reported. You also have people who are contagious but aren't sick enough to know it who are spreading the virus.

The same is happening in China. Naturally, once the news about the Coronavirus hit the mainstream news you have a huge influx of people who are going to the doctor and confirming their case. Therefore it is still early to know what the 'real' numbers are. Experts in the field are estimating that this virus so far is more contagious but not as lethal hence the higher number of people having it.

Right now, the strategy in Canada and every other country that has imported cases, is to stop community transmission before it starts. This is why there is a focus on screening and identifying individual cases. If in the coming weeks there is evidence that there is community spread that has nothing to do with travel to Wuhan, then the control measures may shift to more general strategies that are in everybody’s pandemic plans such as social distancing measures (avoiding large gatherings, etc.). The world is much more prepared now than it was for SARS

Make no mistake though China is already running of the biggest if not biggest quarantine campaigns that the world has seen when trying to control the spread of a disease. This is proven by the amount of people they have in isolation

 

[EdJovanovski]

Your first mistake is comparing the SARS virus to this virus. Both are very different. This coronavirus is more contagious but less lethal than SARS (so far). What that means is you have a lot of people who are sick who aren't going to the doctor cause they believe they just have the flu. This skews the numbers of what will be reported. You also have people who are contagious but aren't sick enough to know it who are spreading the virus.

The same is happening in China. Naturally, once the news about the Coronavirus hit the mainstream news you have a huge influx of people who are going to the doctor and confirming their case. Therefore it is still early to know what the 'real' numbers are. Experts in the field are estimating that this virus so far is more contagious but not as lethal hence the higher number of people having it.

Right now, the strategy in Canada and every other country that has imported cases, is to stop community transmission before it starts. This is why there is a focus on screening and identifying individual cases. If in the coming weeks there is evidence that there is community spread that has nothing to do with travel to Wuhan, then the control measures may shift to more general strategies that are in everybody’s pandemic plans such as social distancing measures (avoiding large gatherings, etc.). The world is much more prepared now than it was for SARS

Make no mistake though China is already running of the biggest if not biggest quarantine campaigns that the world has seen when trying to control the spread of a disease. This is proven by the amount of people they have in isolation

I hope you are right!! I’m 25% Chinese and from Vancouver so I’m definitely coming into contact with people who have travelled to China recently I’m a bit of a hypochondriac in general, but since I’m very young hopefully I have nothing to worry about even if god forbid I get this disease (it seems the deaths are all elderly people with compromised immune systems)

 

[HSF]

I was a little kid at the time but IIRC the disease was specifically spread in hospitals and not in general public life, because they were ill-prepared and didn’t isolate patients, etc. 45 deaths in Canada compared to 0 in US

A lot was learned from SARS and far better measures are in place such as zero pressure rooms and minimizing 'superspreading events'. Whether or not superspreading occurs relates to how sick the patient is (i.e. they have lots of virus and have symptoms like coughing that are spreading it) and whether something happens to them that causes them to spread even more virus. The best documented superspreading events with SARS and MERS have occurred in hospitals during aerosol generating procedures like bronchoscopy and intubation, when healthcare workers were not properly protected.

 

[powerstuck]

I don't know how wise of a measure is for the occidental countries to evacuate their citizens from China. I mean if you can have the virus in you for up to 14 days without knowing and be able to infect other people, I would be worried more about that than contracting is while doing by day to day stuff here where I live.

Also consider Chinese urban areas are among the most dense in the world.

 

[bucks_oil]

I too believe everything the Chinese government says lol, many reports are saying they were suppressing news coverage of it until news broke internationally and they had no choice. There are also many allegations that there are far greater numbers of those infected than what they’re telling us.

And I don’t think a Universities research is indicative of the health care system as a whole we have very long wait times, few doctors per capita, outdated technology (and very low quantity of it), takes forever for drugs to hit the market, we barely produce any innovation in pharmaceuticals or technology. I think people knew how to deal with pandemics as the US managed to have 0 deaths while Canada had 45.

Even if we trust China’s numbers they are now reporting over 6000 cases, which greater than SARS so they obviously don’t have things under control.

The US vs Canada narrative you are peddling here isn't particularly relevant in terms of public health preparedness for pandemics. At least not with the evidence you are using.

The US had 61M cases of H1N1 "swine flu" (approximately 20% of the population) and 12,469 deaths... Canada had 3.5M (10%) with 428 deaths.

Does that mean Canada was better prepared? No, it probably means the US had a bigger issue to contain given the far more frequent travel to Mexico during the outbreak.